Daily Papers

The edge computing paradigm places compute-capable devices - edge servers - at the network edge to assist mobile devices in executing data analysis tasks. Intuitively, offloading compute-intense tasks to edge servers can reduce their execution time. However, poor conditions of the wireless channel connecting the mobile devices to the edge servers may degrade the overall capture-to-output delay achieved by edge offloading. Herein, we focus on edge computing supporting remote object detection by means of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), and develop a framework to reduce the amount of data transmitted over the wireless link. The core idea we propose builds on recent approaches splitting DNNs into sections - namely head and tail models - executed by the mobile device and edge server, respectively. The wireless link, then, is used to transport the output of the last layer of the head model to the edge server, instead of the DNN input. Most prior work focuses on classification tasks and leaves the DNN structure unaltered. Herein, our focus is on DNNs for three different object detection tasks, which present a much more convoluted structure, and modify the architecture of the network to: (i) achieve in-network compression by introducing a bottleneck layer in the early layers on the head model, and (ii) prefilter pictures that do not contain objects of interest using a convolutional neural network. Results show that the proposed technique represents an effective intermediate option between local and edge computing in a parameter region where these extreme point solutions fail to provide satisfactory performance. The code and trained models are available at https://github.com/yoshitomo-matsubara/hnd-ghnd-object-detectors .

The full potential of large pretrained models remains largely untapped in control domains like robotics. This is mainly because of the scarcity of data and the computational challenges associated with training or fine-tuning these large models for such applications. Prior work mainly emphasizes effective pretraining of large models for decision-making, with little exploration into how to perform data-efficient continual adaptation of these models for new tasks. Recognizing these constraints, we introduce TAIL (Task-specific Adapters for Imitation Learning), a framework for efficient adaptation to new control tasks. Inspired by recent advancements in parameter-efficient fine-tuning in language domains, we explore efficient fine-tuning techniques -- e.g., Bottleneck Adapters, P-Tuning, and Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) -- in TAIL to adapt large pretrained models for new tasks with limited demonstration data. Our extensive experiments in large-scale language-conditioned manipulation tasks comparing prevalent parameter-efficient fine-tuning techniques and adaptation baselines suggest that TAIL with LoRA can achieve the best post-adaptation performance with only 1\% of the trainable parameters of full fine-tuning, while avoiding catastrophic forgetting and preserving adaptation plasticity in continual learning settings.

The internet contains a wealth of knowledge -- from the birthdays of historical figures to tutorials on how to code -- all of which may be learned by language models. However, there is a huge variability in the number of times a given piece of information appears on the web. In this paper, we study the relationship between the knowledge memorized by large language models and the information in their pre-training datasets. In particular, we show that a language model's ability to answer a fact-based question relates to how many documents associated with that question were seen during pre-training. We identify these relevant documents by entity linking pre-training datasets and counting documents that contain the same entities as a given question-answer pair. Our results demonstrate strong correlational and causal relationships between accuracy and relevant document count for numerous question answering datasets (e.g., TriviaQA), pre-training corpora (e.g., ROOTS), and model sizes (e.g., 176B parameters). Moreover, we find that while larger models are better at learning long-tail knowledge, we estimate that today's models must be scaled by many orders of magnitude to reach competitive QA performance on questions with little support in the pre-training data. Finally, we show that retrieval-augmentation can reduce the dependence on relevant document count, presenting a promising approach for capturing the long-tail.

Since the recent prosperity of Large Language Models (LLMs), there have been interleaved discussions regarding how to reduce hallucinations from LLM responses, how to increase the factuality of LLMs, and whether Knowledge Graphs (KGs), which store the world knowledge in a symbolic form, will be replaced with LLMs. In this paper, we try to answer these questions from a new angle: How knowledgeable are LLMs? To answer this question, we constructed Head-to-Tail, a benchmark that consists of 18K question-answer (QA) pairs regarding head, torso, and tail facts in terms of popularity. We designed an automated evaluation method and a set of metrics that closely approximate the knowledge an LLM confidently internalizes. Through a comprehensive evaluation of 14 publicly available LLMs, we show that existing LLMs are still far from being perfect in terms of their grasp of factual knowledge, especially for facts of torso-to-tail entities.

Self-improvement methods enable large language models (LLMs) to generate solutions themselves and iteratively train on filtered, high-quality rationales. This process proves effective and reduces the reliance on human supervision in LLMs' reasoning, but the performance soon plateaus. We delve into the process and find that models tend to over-sample on easy queries and under-sample on queries they have yet to master. As iterations proceed, this imbalance in sampling is exacerbated, leading to a long-tail distribution where solutions to difficult queries almost diminish. This phenomenon limits the performance gain of self-improving models. A straightforward solution is brute-force sampling to balance the distribution, which significantly raises computational costs. In this paper, we introduce Guided Self-Improvement (GSI), a strategy aimed at improving the efficiency of sampling challenging heavy-tailed data. It leverages Socratic-style guidance signals to help LLM reasoning with complex queries, reducing the exploration effort and minimizing computational overhead. Experiments on four models across diverse mathematical tasks show that GSI strikes a balance between performance and efficiency, while also being effective on held-out tasks.

Since large language models have approached human-level performance on many tasks, it has become increasingly harder for researchers to find tasks that are still challenging to the models. Failure cases usually come from the long-tail distribution - data that an oracle language model could assign a probability on the lower end of its distribution. Current methodology such as prompt engineering or crowdsourcing are insufficient for creating long-tail examples because humans are constrained by cognitive bias. We propose a Logic-Induced-Knowledge-Search (LINK) framework for systematically generating long-tail knowledge statements. Grounded by a symbolic rule, we search for long-tail values for each variable of the rule by first prompting a LLM, then verifying the correctness of the values with a critic, and lastly pushing for the long-tail distribution with a reranker. With this framework we construct a dataset, Logic-Induced-Long-Tail (LINT), consisting of 200 symbolic rules and 50K knowledge statements spanning across four domains. Human annotations find that 84% of the statements in LINT are factually correct. In contrast, ChatGPT and GPT4 struggle with directly generating long-tail statements under the guidance of logic rules, each only getting 56% and 78% of their statements correct. Moreover, their "long-tail" generations in fact fall into the higher likelihood range, and thus are not really long-tail. Our findings suggest that LINK is effective for generating data in the long-tail distribution while enforcing quality. LINT can be useful for systematically evaluating LLMs' capabilities in the long-tail distribution. We challenge the models with a simple entailment classification task using samples from LINT. We find that ChatGPT and GPT4's capability in identifying incorrect knowledge drop by ~3% in the long-tail distribution compared to head distribution.

Fine-tuning is a crucial process for adapting large language models (LLMs) to diverse applications. In certain scenarios, such as multi-tenant serving, deploying multiple LLMs becomes necessary to meet complex demands. Recent studies suggest decomposing a fine-tuned LLM into a base model and corresponding delta weights, which are then compressed using low-rank or low-bit approaches to reduce costs. In this work, we observe that existing low-rank and low-bit compression methods can significantly harm the model performance for task-specific fine-tuned LLMs (e.g., WizardMath for math problems). Motivated by the long-tail distribution of singular values in the delta weights, we propose a delta quantization approach using mixed-precision. This method employs higher-bit representation for singular vectors corresponding to larger singular values. We evaluate our approach on various fine-tuned LLMs, including math LLMs, code LLMs, chat LLMs, and even VLMs. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach performs comparably to full fine-tuned LLMs, surpassing both low-rank and low-bit baselines by a considerable margin. Additionally, we show that our method is compatible with various backbone LLMs, such as Llama-2, Llama-3, and Mistral, highlighting its generalizability.

Large language models (LLMs) remain prone to factual inaccuracies and computational errors, including hallucinations and mistakes in mathematical reasoning. Recent work augmented LLMs with tools to mitigate these shortcomings, but often requires curated gold tool-use demonstrations. In this paper, we investigate whether LLMs can learn to use tools without demonstrations. First, we analyse zero-shot prompting strategies to guide LLMs in tool utilisation. Second, we propose a self-training method to synthesise tool-use traces using the LLM itself. We compare supervised fine-tuning and preference fine-tuning techniques for fine-tuning the model on datasets constructed using existing Question Answering (QA) datasets, i.e., TriviaQA and GSM8K. Experiments show that tool-use enhances performance on a long-tail knowledge task: 3.7% on PopQA, which is used solely for evaluation, but leads to mixed results on other datasets, i.e., TriviaQA, GSM8K, and NQ-Open. Our findings highlight the potential and challenges of integrating external tools into LLMs without demonstrations.

Real-world large-scale datasets are both noisily labeled and class-imbalanced. The issues seriously hurt the generalization of trained models. It is hence significant to address the simultaneous incorrect labeling and class-imbalance, i.e., the problem of learning with noisy labels on long-tailed data. Previous works develop several methods for the problem. However, they always rely on strong assumptions that are invalid or hard to be checked in practice. In this paper, to handle the problem and address the limitations of prior works, we propose a representation calibration method RCAL. Specifically, RCAL works with the representations extracted by unsupervised contrastive learning. We assume that without incorrect labeling and class imbalance, the representations of instances in each class conform to a multivariate Gaussian distribution, which is much milder and easier to be checked. Based on the assumption, we recover underlying representation distributions from polluted ones resulting from mislabeled and class-imbalanced data. Additional data points are then sampled from the recovered distributions to help generalization. Moreover, during classifier training, representation learning takes advantage of representation robustness brought by contrastive learning, which further improves the classifier performance. We derive theoretical results to discuss the effectiveness of our representation calibration. Experiments on multiple benchmarks justify our claims and confirm the superiority of the proposed method.

Entity Linking (EL) models are well-trained at mapping mentions to their corresponding entities according to a given context. However, EL models struggle to disambiguate long-tail entities due to their limited training data. Meanwhile, large language models (LLMs) are more robust at interpreting uncommon mentions. Yet, due to a lack of specialized training, LLMs suffer at generating correct entity IDs. Furthermore, training an LLM to perform EL is cost-intensive. Building upon these insights, we introduce LLM-Augmented Entity Linking LLMAEL, a plug-and-play approach to enhance entity linking through LLM data augmentation. We leverage LLMs as knowledgeable context augmenters, generating mention-centered descriptions as additional input, while preserving traditional EL models for task specific processing. Experiments on 6 standard datasets show that the vanilla LLMAEL outperforms baseline EL models in most cases, while the fine-tuned LLMAEL set the new state-of-the-art results across all 6 benchmarks.

We present an elegant and effective approach for addressing limitations in existing multi-label classification models by incorporating interaction matching, a concept shown to be useful for ad-hoc search result ranking. By performing soft n-gram interaction matching, we match labels with natural language descriptions (which are common to have in most multi-labeling tasks). Our approach can be used to enhance existing multi-label classification approaches, which are biased toward frequently-occurring labels. We evaluate our approach on two challenging tasks: automatic medical coding of clinical notes and automatic labeling of entities from software tutorial text. Our results show that our method can yield up to an 11% relative improvement in macro performance, with most of the gains stemming labels that appear infrequently in the training set (i.e., the long tail of labels).

We tackle the task of long-form music generation--particularly the challenging lyrics-to-song problem--by introducing YuE, a family of open foundation models based on the LLaMA2 architecture. Specifically, YuE scales to trillions of tokens and generates up to five minutes of music while maintaining lyrical alignment, coherent musical structure, and engaging vocal melodies with appropriate accompaniment. It achieves this through (1) track-decoupled next-token prediction to overcome dense mixture signals, (2) structural progressive conditioning for long-context lyrical alignment, and (3) a multitask, multiphase pre-training recipe to converge and generalize. In addition, we redesign the in-context learning technique for music generation, enabling versatile style transfer (e.g., converting Japanese city pop into an English rap while preserving the original accompaniment) and bidirectional generation. Through extensive evaluation, we demonstrate that YuE matches or even surpasses some of the proprietary systems in musicality and vocal agility. In addition, fine-tuning YuE enables additional controls and enhanced support for tail languages. Furthermore, beyond generation, we show that YuE's learned representations can perform well on music understanding tasks, where the results of YuE match or exceed state-of-the-art methods on the MARBLE benchmark. Keywords: lyrics2song, song generation, long-form, foundation model, music generation

As large language models (LLMs) advance, it becomes more challenging to reliably evaluate their output due to the high costs of human evaluation. To make progress towards better LLM autoraters, we introduce FLAMe, a family of Foundational Large Autorater Models. FLAMe is trained on our large and diverse collection of 100+ quality assessment tasks comprising 5M+ human judgments, curated and standardized using publicly released human evaluations from previous research. FLAMe significantly improves generalization to a wide variety of held-out tasks, outperforming LLMs trained on proprietary data like GPT-4 and Claude-3 on many tasks. We show that FLAMe can also serve as a powerful starting point for further downstream fine-tuning, using reward modeling evaluation as a case study (FLAMe-RM). Notably, on RewardBench, our FLAMe-RM-24B model (with an accuracy of 87.8%) is the top-performing generative model trained exclusively on permissively licensed data, outperforming both GPT-4-0125 (85.9%) and GPT-4o (84.7%). Additionally, we explore a more computationally efficient approach using a novel tail-patch fine-tuning strategy to optimize our FLAMe multitask mixture for reward modeling evaluation (FLAMe-Opt-RM), offering competitive RewardBench performance while requiring approximately 25x less training datapoints. Overall, our FLAMe variants outperform all popular proprietary LLM-as-a-Judge models we consider across 8 out of 12 autorater evaluation benchmarks, encompassing 53 quality assessment tasks, including RewardBench and LLM-AggreFact. Finally, our analysis reveals that FLAMe is significantly less biased than these LLM-as-a-Judge models on the CoBBLEr autorater bias benchmark, while effectively identifying high-quality responses for code generation.

We introduce ArtBench-10, the first class-balanced, high-quality, cleanly annotated, and standardized dataset for benchmarking artwork generation. It comprises 60,000 images of artwork from 10 distinctive artistic styles, with 5,000 training images and 1,000 testing images per style. ArtBench-10 has several advantages over previous artwork datasets. Firstly, it is class-balanced while most previous artwork datasets suffer from the long tail class distributions. Secondly, the images are of high quality with clean annotations. Thirdly, ArtBench-10 is created with standardized data collection, annotation, filtering, and preprocessing procedures. We provide three versions of the dataset with different resolutions (32times32, 256times256, and original image size), formatted in a way that is easy to be incorporated by popular machine learning frameworks. We also conduct extensive benchmarking experiments using representative image synthesis models with ArtBench-10 and present in-depth analysis. The dataset is available at https://github.com/liaopeiyuan/artbench under a Fair Use license.

Deployed multimodal systems can fail in ways that evaluators did not anticipate. In order to find these failures before deployment, we introduce MultiMon, a system that automatically identifies systematic failures -- generalizable, natural-language descriptions of patterns of model failures. To uncover systematic failures, MultiMon scrapes a corpus for examples of erroneous agreement: inputs that produce the same output, but should not. It then prompts a language model (e.g., GPT-4) to find systematic patterns of failure and describe them in natural language. We use MultiMon to find 14 systematic failures (e.g., "ignores quantifiers") of the CLIP text-encoder, each comprising hundreds of distinct inputs (e.g., "a shelf with a few/many books"). Because CLIP is the backbone for most state-of-the-art multimodal systems, these inputs produce failures in Midjourney 5.1, DALL-E, VideoFusion, and others. MultiMon can also steer towards failures relevant to specific use cases, such as self-driving cars. We see MultiMon as a step towards evaluation that autonomously explores the long tail of potential system failures. Code for MULTIMON is available at https://github.com/tsb0601/MultiMon.

Face parsing refers to the semantic segmentation of human faces into key facial regions such as eyes, nose, hair, etc. It serves as a prerequisite for various advanced applications, including face editing, face swapping, and facial makeup, which often require segmentation masks for classes like eyeglasses, hats, earrings, and necklaces. These infrequently occurring classes are called long-tail classes, which are overshadowed by more frequently occurring classes known as head classes. Existing methods, primarily CNN-based, tend to be dominated by head classes during training, resulting in suboptimal representation for long-tail classes. Previous works have largely overlooked the problem of poor segmentation performance of long-tail classes. To address this issue, we propose SegFace, a simple and efficient approach that uses a lightweight transformer-based model which utilizes learnable class-specific tokens. The transformer decoder leverages class-specific tokens, allowing each token to focus on its corresponding class, thereby enabling independent modeling of each class. The proposed approach improves the performance of long-tail classes, thereby boosting overall performance. To the best of our knowledge, SegFace is the first work to employ transformer models for face parsing. Moreover, our approach can be adapted for low-compute edge devices, achieving 95.96 FPS. We conduct extensive experiments demonstrating that SegFace significantly outperforms previous state-of-the-art models, achieving a mean F1 score of 88.96 (+2.82) on the CelebAMask-HQ dataset and 93.03 (+0.65) on the LaPa dataset. Code: https://github.com/Kartik-3004/SegFace

Smaller-scale Vision-Langauge Models (VLMs) often claim to perform on par with larger models in general-domain visual grounding and question-answering benchmarks while offering advantages in computational efficiency and storage. However, their ability to handle rare objects, which fall into the long tail of data distributions, is less understood. To rigorously evaluate this aspect, we introduce the "Uncontextualized Uncommon Objects" (UOUO) benchmark. This benchmark focuses on systematically testing VLMs with both large and small parameter counts on rare and specialized objects. Our comprehensive analysis reveals that while smaller VLMs maintain competitive performance on common datasets, they significantly underperform on tasks involving uncommon objects. We also propose an advanced, scalable pipeline for data collection and cleaning, ensuring the UOUO benchmark provides high-quality, challenging instances. These findings highlight the need to consider long-tail distributions when assessing the true capabilities of VLMs.

The robust generalization of models to rare, in-distribution (ID) samples drawn from the long tail of the training distribution and to out-of-training-distribution (OOD) samples is one of the major challenges of current deep learning methods. For image classification, this manifests in the existence of adversarial attacks, the performance drops on distorted images, and a lack of generalization to concepts such as sketches. The current understanding of generalization in neural networks is very limited, but some biases that differentiate models from human vision have been identified and might be causing these limitations. Consequently, several attempts with varying success have been made to reduce these biases during training to improve generalization. We take a step back and sanity-check these attempts. Fixing the architecture to the well-established ResNet-50, we perform a large-scale study on 48 ImageNet models obtained via different training methods to understand how and if these biases - including shape bias, spectral biases, and critical bands - interact with generalization. Our extensive study results reveal that contrary to previous findings, these biases are insufficient to accurately predict the generalization of a model holistically. We provide access to all checkpoints and evaluation code at https://github.com/paulgavrikov/biases_vs_generalization

Patient data from real-world clinical practice often suffers from data scarcity and long-tail imbalances, leading to biased outcomes or algorithmic unfairness. This study addresses these challenges by generating lesion-containing image-segmentation pairs from lesion-free images. Previous efforts in medical imaging synthesis have struggled with separating lesion information from background, resulting in low-quality backgrounds and limited control over the synthetic output. Inspired by diffusion-based image inpainting, we propose LeFusion, a lesion-focused diffusion model. By redesigning the diffusion learning objectives to focus on lesion areas, we simplify the learning process and improve control over the output while preserving high-fidelity backgrounds by integrating forward-diffused background contexts into the reverse diffusion process. Additionally, we tackle two major challenges in lesion texture synthesis: 1) multi-peak and 2) multi-class lesions. We introduce two effective strategies: histogram-based texture control and multi-channel decomposition, enabling the controlled generation of high-quality lesions in difficult scenarios. Furthermore, we incorporate lesion mask diffusion, allowing control over lesion size, location, and boundary, thus increasing lesion diversity. Validated on 3D cardiac lesion MRI and lung nodule CT datasets, LeFusion-generated data significantly improves the performance of state-of-the-art segmentation models, including nnUNet and SwinUNETR. Code and model are available at https://github.com/M3DV/LeFusion.

Learning the tail behavior of a distribution is a notoriously difficult problem. By definition, the number of samples from the tail is small, and deep generative models, such as normalizing flows, tend to concentrate on learning the body of the distribution. In this paper, we focus on improving the ability of normalizing flows to correctly capture the tail behavior and, thus, form more accurate models. We prove that the marginal tailedness of an autoregressive flow can be controlled via the tailedness of the marginals of its base distribution. This theoretical insight leads us to a novel type of flows based on flexible base distributions and data-driven linear layers. An empirical analysis shows that the proposed method improves on the accuracy -- especially on the tails of the distribution -- and is able to generate heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate its application on a weather and climate example, in which capturing the tail behavior is essential.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have grown exponentially in size over the past decade, leaving only those who have massive datacenter-based resources with the ability to develop and train such models. One of the main challenges for the long tail of researchers who might have only limited resources (e.g., a single multi-GPU server) is limited GPU memory capacity compared to model size. The problem is so acute that the memory requirement of training massive DNN models can often exceed the aggregate capacity of all available GPUs on a single server; this problem only gets worse with the trend of ever-growing model sizes. Current solutions that rely on virtualizing GPU memory (by swapping to/from CPU memory) incur excessive swapping overhead. In this paper, we present a new training framework, Harmony, and advocate rethinking how DNN frameworks schedule computation and move data to push the boundaries of training massive models efficiently on a single commodity server. Across various massive DNN models, Harmony is able to reduce swap load by up to two orders of magnitude and obtain a training throughput speedup of up to 7.6x over highly optimized baselines with virtualized memory.

Despite the recent observation that large language models (LLMs) can store substantial factual knowledge, there is a limited understanding of the mechanisms of how they acquire factual knowledge through pretraining. This work addresses this gap by studying how LLMs acquire factual knowledge during pretraining. The findings reveal several important insights into the dynamics of factual knowledge acquisition during pretraining. First, counterintuitively, we observe that pretraining on more data shows no significant improvement in the model's capability to acquire and maintain factual knowledge. Next, there is a power-law relationship between training steps and forgetting of memorization and generalization of factual knowledge, and LLMs trained with duplicated training data exhibit faster forgetting. Third, training LLMs with larger batch sizes can enhance the models' robustness to forgetting. Overall, our observations suggest that factual knowledge acquisition in LLM pretraining occurs by progressively increasing the probability of factual knowledge presented in the pretraining data at each step. However, this increase is diluted by subsequent forgetting. Based on this interpretation, we demonstrate that we can provide plausible explanations for recently observed behaviors of LLMs, such as the poor performance of LLMs on long-tail knowledge and the benefits of deduplicating the pretraining corpus.

Text injection for automatic speech recognition (ASR), wherein unpaired text-only data is used to supplement paired audio-text data, has shown promising improvements for word error rate. This study examines the use of text injection for auxiliary tasks, which are the non-ASR tasks often performed by an E2E model. In this work, we use joint end-to-end and internal language model training (JEIT) as our text injection algorithm to train an ASR model which performs two auxiliary tasks. The first is capitalization, which is a de-normalization task. The second is turn-taking prediction, which attempts to identify whether a user has completed their conversation turn in a digital assistant interaction. We show results demonstrating that our text injection method boosts capitalization performance for long-tail data, and improves turn-taking detection recall.

Real-world Knowledge Graphs (KGs) often suffer from incompleteness, which limits their potential performance. Knowledge Graph Completion (KGC) techniques aim to address this issue. However, traditional KGC methods are computationally intensive and impractical for large-scale KGs, necessitating the learning of dense node embeddings and computing pairwise distances. Generative transformer-based language models (e.g., T5 and recent KGT5) offer a promising solution as they can predict the tail nodes directly. In this study, we propose to include node neighborhoods as additional information to improve KGC methods based on language models. We examine the effects of this imputation and show that, on both inductive and transductive Wikidata subsets, our method outperforms KGT5 and conventional KGC approaches. We also provide an extensive analysis of the impact of neighborhood on model prediction and show its importance. Furthermore, we point the way to significantly improve KGC through more effective neighborhood selection.

Language model (LM) decoding is based on the next-token prediction (NTP) probability distribution. For neural LMs (e.g., Transformer-based), NTP distribution is essentially a softmax-regularized dot product between an encoded input context (query) and fixed vocabulary representations (keys). In this paper, we study the effect of the key distribution on the NTP distribution, with a focus on whether the similarity between keys will trigger spurious correlations in NTP. Through knowledge-probing tasks, we show that in the NTP distribution, the few top-ranked tokens are typically accurate. However, the middle-ranked prediction is highly biased towards the tokens that are distributionally (not necessarily semantically) similar to these top ones. For instance, if "P" is predicted as the top-1 token, "A"-"Z" will all be ranked high in NTP, no matter whether they can lead to correct decoding results. This hurts the sampling diversity and makes the sampling of correct, long-tail results hopeless and noisy. We attempt to alleviate this issue via a novel in-context method that iteratively pushes the query representation away from explored regions. Specifically, we include the explored decoding results in the context and prompt the LM to generate something else, which encourages the LM to produce a query representation that has small dot products with explored keys. Experiments on knowledge-probing tasks show that our method leads to efficient navigation away from explored keys to correct new keys. We further extend our method to open-ended and chain-of-thought (for reasoning) generation. Experiment results show that ICN contributes to better generation diversity and improved self-consistency voting performance. Finally, we discuss potential training issues caused by the fixed key space together with the challenges and possible ways to address them in future research.

A primary hurdle of autonomous driving in urban environments is understanding complex and long-tail scenarios, such as challenging road conditions and delicate human behaviors. We introduce DriveVLM, an autonomous driving system leveraging Vision-Language Models (VLMs) for enhanced scene understanding and planning capabilities. DriveVLM integrates a unique combination of chain-of-thought (CoT) modules for scene description, scene analysis, and hierarchical planning. Furthermore, recognizing the limitations of VLMs in spatial reasoning and heavy computational requirements, we propose DriveVLM-Dual, a hybrid system that synergizes the strengths of DriveVLM with the traditional autonomous driving pipeline. DriveVLM-Dual achieves robust spatial understanding and real-time inference speed. Extensive experiments on both the nuScenes dataset and our SUP-AD dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of DriveVLM and the enhanced performance of DriveVLM-Dual, surpassing existing methods in complex and unpredictable driving conditions.

The end-to-end ASR model is often desired in the streaming multilingual scenario since it is easier to deploy and can benefit from pre-trained speech models such as powerful foundation models. Meanwhile, the heterogeneous nature and imbalanced data abundance of different languages may cause performance degradation, leading to asynchronous peak performance for different languages during training, especially on tail ones. Sometimes even the data itself may become unavailable as a result of the enhanced privacy protection. Existing work tend to significantly increase the model size or learn language-specific decoders to accommodate each language separately. In this study, we explore simple yet effective Language-Dependent Adapter (LDA) finetuning under a cascaded Conformer transducer framework enhanced by teacher pseudo-labeling for tail languages in the streaming multilingual ASR. The adapter only accounts for 0.4% of the full model per language. It is plugged into the frozen foundation model and is the only trainable module during the finetuning process with noisy student training. The final model merges the adapter parameters from different checkpoints for different languages. The model performance is validated on a challenging multilingual dictation dataset, which includes 39 tail languages across Latin, Greek, Arabic, etc. Our proposed method brings 12.2% word error rate reduction on average and up to 37.5% on a single locale. Furthermore, we show that our parameter-efficient LDA can match the quality of the full model finetuning, thus greatly alleviating the asynchronous peak performance issue.

Foundation Models (FMs) have demonstrated unprecedented capabilities including zero-shot learning, high fidelity data synthesis, and out of domain generalization. However, as we show in this paper, FMs still have poor out-of-the-box performance on expert tasks (e.g. retrieval of car manuals technical illustrations from language queries), data for which is either unseen or belonging to a long-tail part of the data distribution of the huge datasets used for FM pre-training. This underlines the necessity to explicitly evaluate and finetune FMs on such expert tasks, arguably ones that appear the most in practical real-world applications. In this paper, we propose a first of its kind FETA benchmark built around the task of teaching FMs to understand technical documentation, via learning to match their graphical illustrations to corresponding language descriptions. Our FETA benchmark focuses on text-to-image and image-to-text retrieval in public car manuals and sales catalogue brochures. FETA is equipped with a procedure for completely automatic annotation extraction (code would be released upon acceptance), allowing easy extension of FETA to more documentation types and application domains in the future. Our automatic annotation leads to an automated performance metric shown to be consistent with metrics computed on human-curated annotations (also released). We provide multiple baselines and analysis of popular FMs on FETA leading to several interesting findings that we believe would be very valuable to the FM community, paving the way towards real-world application of FMs for practical expert tasks currently 'overlooked' by standard benchmarks focusing on common objects.

Large language models (LLMs) power a new generation of interactive AI applications exemplified by ChatGPT. The interactive nature of these applications demand low job completion time (JCT) for model inference. Existing LLM serving systems use run-to-completion processing for inference jobs, which suffers from head-of-line blocking and long JCT. We present FastServe, a distributed inference serving system for LLMs. FastServe exploits the autoregressive pattern of LLM inference to enable preemption at the granularity of each output token. FastServe uses preemptive scheduling to minimize JCT with a novel skip-join Multi-Level Feedback Queue scheduler. Based on the new semi information-agnostic setting of LLM inference, the scheduler leverages the input length information to assign an appropriate initial queue for each arrival job to join. The higher priority queues than the joined queue are skipped to reduce demotions. We design an efficient GPU memory management mechanism that proactively offloads and uploads intermediate states between GPU memory and host memory for LLM inference. We build a system prototype of FastServe based on NVIDIA FasterTransformer. Experimental results show that compared to the state-of-the-art solution Orca, FastServe improves the average and tail JCT by up to 5.1times and 6.4times, respectively.

Kullback-Leiber divergence has been widely used in Knowledge Distillation (KD) to compress Large Language Models (LLMs). Contrary to prior assertions that reverse Kullback-Leibler (RKL) divergence is mode-seeking and thus preferable over the mean-seeking forward Kullback-Leibler (FKL) divergence, this study empirically and theoretically demonstrates that neither mode-seeking nor mean-seeking properties manifest in KD for LLMs. Instead, RKL and FKL are found to share the same optimization objective and both converge after a sufficient number of epochs. However, due to practical constraints, LLMs are seldom trained for such an extensive number of epochs. Meanwhile, we further find that RKL focuses on the tail part of the distributions, while FKL focuses on the head part at the beginning epochs. Consequently, we propose a simple yet effective Adaptive Kullback-Leiber (AKL) divergence method, which adaptively allocates weights to combine FKL and RKL. Metric-based and GPT-4-based evaluations demonstrate that the proposed AKL outperforms the baselines across various tasks and improves the diversity and quality of generated responses.

Large language models (LLMs) need to serve everyone, including a global majority of non-English speakers. However, most LLMs today, and open LLMs in particular, are often intended for use in just English (e.g. Llama2, Mistral) or a small handful of high-resource languages (e.g. Mixtral, Qwen). Recent research shows that, despite limits in their intended use, people prompt LLMs in many different languages. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate the basic multilingual capabilities of state-of-the-art open LLMs beyond their intended use. For this purpose, we introduce MultiQ, a new silver standard benchmark for basic open-ended question answering with 27.4k test questions across a typologically diverse set of 137 languages. With MultiQ, we evaluate language fidelity, i.e. whether models respond in the prompted language, and question answering accuracy. All LLMs we test respond faithfully and/or accurately for at least some languages beyond their intended use. Most models are more accurate when they respond faithfully. However, differences across models are large, and there is a long tail of languages where models are neither accurate nor faithful. We explore differences in tokenization as a potential explanation for our findings, identifying possible correlations that warrant further investigation.

Despite significant recent progress in the field of autonomous driving, modern methods still struggle and can incur serious accidents when encountering long-tail unforeseen events and challenging urban scenarios. On the one hand, large language models (LLM) have shown impressive reasoning capabilities that approach "Artificial General Intelligence". On the other hand, previous autonomous driving methods tend to rely on limited-format inputs (e.g. sensor data and navigation waypoints), restricting the vehicle's ability to understand language information and interact with humans. To this end, this paper introduces LMDrive, a novel language-guided, end-to-end, closed-loop autonomous driving framework. LMDrive uniquely processes and integrates multi-modal sensor data with natural language instructions, enabling interaction with humans and navigation software in realistic instructional settings. To facilitate further research in language-based closed-loop autonomous driving, we also publicly release the corresponding dataset which includes approximately 64K instruction-following data clips, and the LangAuto benchmark that tests the system's ability to handle complex instructions and challenging driving scenarios. Extensive closed-loop experiments are conducted to demonstrate LMDrive's effectiveness. To the best of our knowledge, we're the very first work to leverage LLMs for closed-loop end-to-end autonomous driving. Codes can be found at https://github.com/opendilab/LMDrive

Understanding human activity is a crucial yet intricate task in egocentric vision, a field that focuses on capturing visual perspectives from the camera wearer's viewpoint. While traditional methods heavily rely on representation learning trained on extensive video data, there exists a significant limitation: obtaining effective video representations proves challenging due to the inherent complexity and variability in human activities.Furthermore, exclusive dependence on video-based learning may constrain a model's capability to generalize across long-tail classes and out-of-distribution scenarios. In this study, we introduce a novel approach for long-term action anticipation using language models (LALM), adept at addressing the complex challenges of long-term activity understanding without the need for extensive training. Our method incorporates an action recognition model to track previous action sequences and a vision-language model to articulate relevant environmental details. By leveraging the context provided by these past events, we devise a prompting strategy for action anticipation using large language models (LLMs). Moreover, we implement Maximal Marginal Relevance for example selection to facilitate in-context learning of the LLMs. Our experimental results demonstrate that LALM surpasses the state-of-the-art methods in the task of long-term action anticipation on the Ego4D benchmark. We further validate LALM on two additional benchmarks, affirming its capacity for generalization across intricate activities with different sets of taxonomies. These are achieved without specific fine-tuning.

Recent advancements in text-only large language models (LLMs) have highlighted the benefit of in-context learning for adapting to new tasks with a few demonstrations. However, extending in-context learning to large vision-language models (VLMs) using a huge amount of naturalistic vision-language data has shown limited success, particularly for egocentric videos, due to high data collection costs. We propose a novel training method Efficient In-context Learning on Egocentric Videos (EILEV), which elicits in-context learning in VLMs for egocentric videos without requiring massive, naturalistic egocentric video datasets. EILEV involves architectural and training data adaptations to allow the model to process contexts interleaved with video clips and narrations, sampling of in-context examples with clusters of similar verbs and nouns, use of data with skewed marginal distributions with a long tail of infrequent verbs and nouns, as well as homonyms and synonyms. Our evaluations show that EILEV-trained models outperform larger VLMs trained on a huge amount of naturalistic data in in-context learning. Furthermore, they can generalize to not only out-of-distribution, but also novel, rare egocentric videos and texts via in-context learning, demonstrating potential for applications requiring cost-effective training, and rapid post-deployment adaptability. Our code and demo are available at https://github.com/yukw777/EILEV.

In this paper, we explore the potential of using a large language model (LLM) to understand the driving environment in a human-like manner and analyze its ability to reason, interpret, and memorize when facing complex scenarios. We argue that traditional optimization-based and modular autonomous driving (AD) systems face inherent performance limitations when dealing with long-tail corner cases. To address this problem, we propose that an ideal AD system should drive like a human, accumulating experience through continuous driving and using common sense to solve problems. To achieve this goal, we identify three key abilities necessary for an AD system: reasoning, interpretation, and memorization. We demonstrate the feasibility of employing an LLM in driving scenarios by building a closed-loop system to showcase its comprehension and environment-interaction abilities. Our extensive experiments show that the LLM exhibits the impressive ability to reason and solve long-tailed cases, providing valuable insights for the development of human-like autonomous driving. The related code are available at https://github.com/PJLab-ADG/DriveLikeAHuman .

We provide an empirical investigation of the potential of pre-training vision-language models on an unprecedented scale: 100 billion examples. We find that model performance tends to saturate at this scale on many common Western-centric classification and retrieval benchmarks, such as COCO Captions. Nevertheless, tasks of cultural diversity achieve more substantial gains from the 100-billion scale web data, thanks to its coverage of long-tail concepts. Furthermore, we analyze the model's multilinguality and show gains in low-resource languages as well. In addition, we observe that reducing the size of the pretraining dataset via quality filters like using CLIP, typically used to enhance performance, may inadvertently reduce the cultural diversity represented even in large-scale datasets. Our results highlight that while traditional benchmarks may not benefit significantly from scaling noisy, raw web data to 100 billion examples, this data scale is vital for building truly inclusive multimodal systems.

Understanding and mitigating the potential risks associated with foundation models (FMs) hinges on developing effective interpretability methods. Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) have emerged as a promising tool for disentangling FM representations, but they struggle to capture rare, yet crucial concepts in the data. We introduce Specialized Sparse Autoencoders (SSAEs), designed to illuminate these elusive dark matter features by focusing on specific subdomains. We present a practical recipe for training SSAEs, demonstrating the efficacy of dense retrieval for data selection and the benefits of Tilted Empirical Risk Minimization as a training objective to improve concept recall. Our evaluation of SSAEs on standard metrics, such as downstream perplexity and L_0 sparsity, show that they effectively capture subdomain tail concepts, exceeding the capabilities of general-purpose SAEs. We showcase the practical utility of SSAEs in a case study on the Bias in Bios dataset, where SSAEs achieve a 12.5\% increase in worst-group classification accuracy when applied to remove spurious gender information. SSAEs provide a powerful new lens for peering into the inner workings of FMs in subdomains.

Data augmentation has been established as an efficacious approach to supplement useful information for low-resource datasets. Traditional augmentation techniques such as noise injection and image transformations have been widely used. In addition, generative data augmentation (GDA) has been shown to produce more diverse and flexible data. While generative adversarial networks (GANs) have been frequently used for GDA, they lack diversity and controllability compared to text-to-image diffusion models. In this paper, we propose TTIDA (Text-to-Text-to-Image Data Augmentation) to leverage the capabilities of large-scale pre-trained Text-to-Text (T2T) and Text-to-Image (T2I) generative models for data augmentation. By conditioning the T2I model on detailed descriptions produced by T2T models, we are able to generate photo-realistic labeled images in a flexible and controllable manner. Experiments on in-domain classification, cross-domain classification, and image captioning tasks show consistent improvements over other data augmentation baselines. Analytical studies in varied settings, including few-shot, long-tail, and adversarial, further reinforce the effectiveness of TTIDA in enhancing performance and increasing robustness.

Recently, large-scale pre-trained models have shown their advantages in many tasks. However, due to the huge computational complexity and storage requirements, it is challenging to apply the large-scale model to real scenes. A common solution is knowledge distillation which regards the large-scale model as a teacher model and helps to train a small student model to obtain a competitive performance. Cross-task Knowledge distillation expands the application scenarios of the large-scale pre-trained model. Existing knowledge distillation works focus on directly mimicking the final prediction or the intermediate layers of the teacher model, which represent the global-level characteristics and are task-specific. To alleviate the constraint of different label spaces, capturing invariant intrinsic local object characteristics (such as the shape characteristics of the leg and tail of the cattle and horse) plays a key role. Considering the complexity and variability of real scene tasks, we propose a Prototype-guided Cross-task Knowledge Distillation (ProC-KD) approach to transfer the intrinsic local-level object knowledge of a large-scale teacher network to various task scenarios. First, to better transfer the generalized knowledge in the teacher model in cross-task scenarios, we propose a prototype learning module to learn from the essential feature representation of objects in the teacher model. Secondly, for diverse downstream tasks, we propose a task-adaptive feature augmentation module to enhance the features of the student model with the learned generalization prototype features and guide the training of the student model to improve its generalization ability. The experimental results on various visual tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach for large-scale model cross-task knowledge distillation scenes.

Evaluation is critical for assessing capabilities, tracking scientific progress, and informing model selection. In this paper, we present three desiderata for a good benchmark for language models: (i) salience (e.g., knowledge about World War II is more salient than a random day in history), (ii) novelty (i.e., the benchmark reveals new trends in model rankings not shown by previous benchmarks), and (iii) difficulty (i.e., the benchmark should be difficult for existing models, leaving headroom for future improvement). We operationalize these three desiderata and cast benchmark creation as a search problem, that of finding benchmarks that that satisfy all three desiderata. To tackle this search problem, we present AutoBencher, which uses a language model to automatically search for datasets that meet the three desiderata. AutoBencher uses privileged information (e.g. relevant documents) to construct reliable datasets, and adaptivity with reranking to optimize for the search objective. We use AutoBencher to create datasets for math, multilingual, and knowledge-intensive question answering. The scalability of AutoBencher allows it to test fine-grained categories and tail knowledge, creating datasets that are on average 27% more novel and 22% more difficult than existing benchmarks. A closer investigation of our constructed datasets shows that we can identify specific gaps in LM knowledge in language models that are not captured by existing benchmarks, such as Gemini Pro performing much worse on question answering about the Permian Extinction and Fordism, while OpenAGI-7B performing surprisingly well on QA about COVID-19.

Accurate prediction of pedestrians' future motions is critical for intelligent driving systems. Developing models for this task requires rich datasets containing diverse sets of samples. However, the existing naturalistic trajectory prediction datasets are generally imbalanced in favor of simpler samples and lack challenging scenarios. Such a long-tail effect causes prediction models to underperform on the tail portion of the data distribution containing safety-critical scenarios. Previous methods tackle the long-tail problem using methods such as contrastive learning and class-conditioned hypernetworks. These approaches, however, are not modular and cannot be applied to many machine learning architectures. In this work, we propose a modular model-agnostic framework for trajectory prediction that leverages a specialized mixture of experts. In our approach, each expert is trained with a specialized skill with respect to a particular part of the data. To produce predictions, we utilise a router network that selects the best expert by generating relative confidence scores. We conduct experimentation on common pedestrian trajectory prediction datasets and show that besides achieving state-of-the-art performance, our method significantly performs better on long-tail scenarios. We further conduct ablation studies to highlight the contribution of different proposed components.

Retrieval-augmented language models (RALMs) improve performance by accessing long-tail and up-to-date knowledge from external data stores, but are challenging to build. Existing approaches require either expensive retrieval-specific modifications to LM pre-training or use post-hoc integration of the data store that leads to suboptimal performance. We introduce Retrieval-Augmented Dual Instruction Tuning (RA-DIT), a lightweight fine-tuning methodology that provides a third option by retrofitting any LLM with retrieval capabilities. Our approach operates in two distinct fine-tuning steps: (1) one updates a pre-trained LM to better use retrieved information, while (2) the other updates the retriever to return more relevant results, as preferred by the LM. By fine-tuning over tasks that require both knowledge utilization and contextual awareness, we demonstrate that each stage yields significant performance improvements, and using both leads to additional gains. Our best model, RA-DIT 65B, achieves state-of-the-art performance across a range of knowledge-intensive zero- and few-shot learning benchmarks, significantly outperforming existing in-context RALM approaches by up to +8.9% in 0-shot setting and +1.4% in 5-shot setting on average.

Retrieval-augmented language models can better adapt to changes in world state and incorporate long-tail knowledge. However, most existing methods retrieve only short contiguous chunks from a retrieval corpus, limiting holistic understanding of the overall document context. We introduce the novel approach of recursively embedding, clustering, and summarizing chunks of text, constructing a tree with differing levels of summarization from the bottom up. At inference time, our RAPTOR model retrieves from this tree, integrating information across lengthy documents at different levels of abstraction. Controlled experiments show that retrieval with recursive summaries offers significant improvements over traditional retrieval-augmented LMs on several tasks. On question-answering tasks that involve complex, multi-step reasoning, we show state-of-the-art results; for example, by coupling RAPTOR retrieval with the use of GPT-4, we can improve the best performance on the QuALITY benchmark by 20% in absolute accuracy.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) model architecture has emerged as a promising solution for scaling transformer models efficiently, offering sparse activation that reduces computational costs while increasing model capacity. However, as MoE models scale, they need to be distributed across GPU devices, thus face critical performance bottlenecks due to their large memory footprint. Expert parallelism distributes experts across GPUs, however, faces key challenges including an unbalanced token routing and expert activation, resulting in communication tail latency and processing inefficiencies. While existing solutions address some of these issues, they fail to resolve the dual challenges of load imbalance and communication skew. The imbalance in token processing load across experts causes uneven processing times on different GPUs, while communication skew between GPUs leads to unbalanced inter-GPU data transfers. These factors degrade the performance of MoE models by increasing tail latency and reducing overall throughput. To address these limitations, we propose an Integer Linear Programming (ILP) formulation to optimize expert placement by jointly considering token load, communication, and computation costs. We exploit the property that there is a token routing dependency across layers, where tokens routed to a specific expert in one layer are likely to be routed to a limited set of experts in the subsequent layer. Our solution, MoETuner, offers an optimal expert-to-GPU assignment that minimizes inter-GPU token routing costs and balances token processing across devices, thereby reducing tail latency and end-to-end execution time. Experimental results demonstrate 9.3% and 17.5% of end-to-end speedups for single-node and multi-node inference respectively, showcasing the potential of our ILP-based optimization for offering expert parallel solutions for next-generation MoEs.

This paper investigates the application of Feature-Enriched Generative Adversarial Networks (FE-GAN) in financial risk management, with a focus on improving the estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). FE-GAN enhances existing GANs architectures by incorporating an additional input sequence derived from preceding data to improve model performance. Two specialized GANs models, the Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (WGAN) and the Tail Generative Adversarial Network (Tail-GAN), were evaluated under the FE-GAN framework. The results demonstrate that FE-GAN significantly outperforms traditional architectures in both VaR and ES estimation. Tail-GAN, leveraging its task-specific loss function, consistently outperforms WGAN in ES estimation, while both models exhibit similar performance in VaR estimation. Despite these promising results, the study acknowledges limitations, including reliance on highly correlated temporal data and restricted applicability to other domains. Future research directions include exploring alternative input generation methods, dynamic forecasting models, and advanced neural network architectures to further enhance GANs-based financial risk estimation.

Large-scale multi-modal pre-training models such as CLIP and PaLI exhibit strong generalization on various visual domains and tasks. However, existing image classification benchmarks often evaluate recognition on a specific domain (e.g., outdoor images) or a specific task (e.g., classifying plant species), which falls short of evaluating whether pre-trained foundational models are universal visual recognizers. To address this, we formally present the task of Open-domain Visual Entity recognitioN (OVEN), where a model need to link an image onto a Wikipedia entity with respect to a text query. We construct OVEN-Wiki by re-purposing 14 existing datasets with all labels grounded onto one single label space: Wikipedia entities. OVEN challenges models to select among six million possible Wikipedia entities, making it a general visual recognition benchmark with the largest number of labels. Our study on state-of-the-art pre-trained models reveals large headroom in generalizing to the massive-scale label space. We show that a PaLI-based auto-regressive visual recognition model performs surprisingly well, even on Wikipedia entities that have never been seen during fine-tuning. We also find existing pretrained models yield different strengths: while PaLI-based models obtain higher overall performance, CLIP-based models are better at recognizing tail entities.

With the advent of Transformers, large language models (LLMs) have saturated well-known NLP benchmarks and leaderboards with high aggregate performance. However, many times these models systematically fail on tail data or rare groups not obvious in aggregate evaluation. Identifying such problematic data groups is even more challenging when there are no explicit labels (e.g., ethnicity, gender, etc.) and further compounded for NLP datasets due to the lack of visual features to characterize failure modes (e.g., Asian males, animals indoors, waterbirds on land, etc.). This paper introduces an interactive Systematic Error Analysis and Labeling (\seal) tool that uses a two-step approach to first identify high error slices of data and then, in the second step, introduce methods to give human-understandable semantics to those underperforming slices. We explore a variety of methods for coming up with coherent semantics for the error groups using language models for semantic labeling and a text-to-image model for generating visual features. SEAL toolkit and demo screencast is available at https://huggingface.co/spaces/nazneen/seal.

Relation extraction (RE) has achieved remarkable progress with the help of pre-trained language models. However, existing RE models are usually incapable of handling two situations: implicit expressions and long-tail relation classes, caused by language complexity and data sparsity. Further, these approaches and models are largely inaccessible to users who don't have direct access to large language models (LLMs) and/or infrastructure for supervised training or fine-tuning. Rule-based systems also struggle with implicit expressions. Apart from this, Real world financial documents such as various 10-X reports (including 10-K, 10-Q, etc.) of publicly traded companies pose another challenge to rule-based systems in terms of longer and complex sentences. In this paper, we introduce a simple approach that consults training relations at test time through a nearest-neighbor search over dense vectors of lexico-syntactic patterns and provides a simple yet effective means to tackle the above issues. We evaluate our approach on REFinD and show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance. We further show that it can provide a good start for human in the loop setup when a small number of annotations are available and it is also beneficial when domain experts can provide high quality patterns.

A recent study by Feldman (2020) proposed a long-tail theory to explain the memorization behavior of deep learning models. However, memorization has not been empirically verified in the context of NLP, a gap addressed by this work. In this paper, we use three different NLP tasks to check if the long-tail theory holds. Our experiments demonstrate that top-ranked memorized training instances are likely atypical, and removing the top-memorized training instances leads to a more serious drop in test accuracy compared with removing training instances randomly. Furthermore, we develop an attribution method to better understand why a training instance is memorized. We empirically show that our memorization attribution method is faithful, and share our interesting finding that the top-memorized parts of a training instance tend to be features negatively correlated with the class label.

Recent work in image and video generation has been adopting the autoregressive LLM architecture due to its generality and potentially easy integration into multi-modal systems. The crux of applying autoregressive training in language generation to visual generation is discretization -- representing continuous data like images and videos as discrete tokens. Common methods of discretizing images and videos include modeling raw pixel values, which are prohibitively lengthy, or vector quantization, which requires convoluted pre-hoc training. In this work, we propose to directly model images and videos as compressed files saved on computers via canonical codecs (e.g., JPEG, AVC/H.264). Using the default Llama architecture without any vision-specific modifications, we pretrain JPEG-LM from scratch to generate images (and AVC-LM to generate videos as a proof of concept), by directly outputting compressed file bytes in JPEG and AVC formats. Evaluation of image generation shows that this simple and straightforward approach is more effective than pixel-based modeling and sophisticated vector quantization baselines (on which our method yields a 31% reduction in FID). Our analysis shows that JPEG-LM has an especial advantage over vector quantization models in generating long-tail visual elements. Overall, we show that using canonical codec representations can help lower the barriers between language generation and visual generation, facilitating future research on multi-modal language/image/video LLMs.

Massive data corpora like WebText, Wikipedia, Conceptual Captions, WebImageText, and LAION have propelled recent dramatic progress in AI. Large neural models trained on such datasets produce impressive results and top many of today's benchmarks. A notable omission within this family of large-scale datasets is 3D data. Despite considerable interest and potential applications in 3D vision, datasets of high-fidelity 3D models continue to be mid-sized with limited diversity of object categories. Addressing this gap, we present Objaverse 1.0, a large dataset of objects with 800K+ (and growing) 3D models with descriptive captions, tags, and animations. Objaverse improves upon present day 3D repositories in terms of scale, number of categories, and in the visual diversity of instances within a category. We demonstrate the large potential of Objaverse via four diverse applications: training generative 3D models, improving tail category segmentation on the LVIS benchmark, training open-vocabulary object-navigation models for Embodied AI, and creating a new benchmark for robustness analysis of vision models. Objaverse can open new directions for research and enable new applications across the field of AI.

Since real-world training datasets cannot properly sample the long tail of the underlying data distribution, corner cases and rare out-of-domain samples can severely hinder the performance of state-of-the-art models. This problem becomes even more severe for dense tasks, such as 3D semantic segmentation, where points of non-standard objects can be confidently associated to the wrong class. In this work, we focus on improving the generalization to out-of-domain data. We achieve this by augmenting the training set with adversarial examples. First, we learn a set of vectors that deform the objects in an adversarial fashion. To prevent the adversarial examples from being too far from the existing data distribution, we preserve their plausibility through a series of constraints, ensuring sensor-awareness and shapes smoothness. Then, we perform adversarial augmentation by applying the learned sample-independent vectors to the available objects when training a model. We conduct extensive experiments across a variety of scenarios on data from KITTI, Waymo, and CrashD for 3D object detection, and on data from SemanticKITTI, Waymo, and nuScenes for 3D semantic segmentation. Despite training on a standard single dataset, our approach substantially improves the robustness and generalization of both 3D object detection and 3D semantic segmentation methods to out-of-domain data.

We present a novel approach to personalized sleep health management using few-shot Chain-of-Thought (CoT) distillation, enabling small-scale language models (> 2B parameters) to rival the performance of large language models (LLMs) in specialized health domains. Our method simultaneously distills problem-solving strategies, long-tail expert knowledge, and personalized recommendation capabilities from larger models into more efficient, compact models. Unlike existing systems, our approach offers three key functionalities: generating personalized sleep health recommendations, supporting user-specific follow-up inquiries, and providing responses to domain-specific knowledge questions. We focus on sleep health due to its measurability via wearable devices and its impact on overall well-being. Our experimental setup, involving GPT-4o for data synthesis, Qwen-max for instruction set creation, and Qwen2.5 1.5B for model distillation, demonstrates significant improvements over baseline small-scale models in penalization, reasoning, and knowledge application. Experiments using 100 simulated sleep reports and 1,000 domain-specific questions shows our model achieves comparable performance to larger models while maintaining efficiency for real-world deployment. This research not only advances AI-driven health management but also provides a novel approach to leveraging LLM capabilities in resource-constrained environments, potentially enhancing the accessibility of personalized healthcare solutions.

Panoptic segmentation methods assign a known class to each pixel given in input. Even for state-of-the-art approaches, this inevitably enforces decisions that systematically lead to wrong predictions for objects outside the training categories. However, robustness against out-of-distribution samples and corner cases is crucial in safety-critical settings to avoid dangerous consequences. Since real-world datasets cannot contain enough data points to adequately sample the long tail of the underlying distribution, models must be able to deal with unseen and unknown scenarios as well. Previous methods targeted this by re-identifying already-seen unlabeled objects. In this work, we propose the necessary step to extend segmentation with a new setting which we term holistic segmentation. Holistic segmentation aims to identify and separate objects of unseen, unknown categories into instances without any prior knowledge about them while performing panoptic segmentation of known classes. We tackle this new problem with U3HS, which finds unknowns as highly uncertain regions and clusters their corresponding instance-aware embeddings into individual objects. By doing so, for the first time in panoptic segmentation with unknown objects, our U3HS is trained without unknown categories, reducing assumptions and leaving the settings as unconstrained as in real-life scenarios. Extensive experiments on public data from MS COCO, Cityscapes, and Lost&Found demonstrate the effectiveness of U3HS for this new, challenging, and assumptions-free setting called holistic segmentation. Project page: https://holisticseg.github.io.

Recent information retrieval (IR) models are pre-trained and instruction-tuned on massive datasets and tasks, enabling them to perform well on a wide range of tasks and potentially generalize to unseen tasks with instructions. However, existing IR benchmarks focus on a limited scope of tasks, making them insufficient for evaluating the latest IR models. In this paper, we propose MAIR (Massive Instructed Retrieval Benchmark), a heterogeneous IR benchmark that includes 126 distinct IR tasks across 6 domains, collected from existing datasets. We benchmark state-of-the-art instruction-tuned text embedding models and re-ranking models. Our experiments reveal that instruction-tuned models generally achieve superior performance compared to non-instruction-tuned models on MAIR. Additionally, our results suggest that current instruction-tuned text embedding models and re-ranking models still lack effectiveness in specific long-tail tasks. MAIR is publicly available at https://github.com/sunnweiwei/Mair.

Real-world data often exhibit extreme imbalances and out-of-distribution (OOD) instances, which significantly biases the model training. While it has been extensively studied in vision and language domains separately, the impact of long-tailed open worlds on multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) has been largely overlooked. In this paper, we first demonstrate the susceptibility and vulnerability of vision-language models to significant biases caused by tail drift and out-of-distribution (OOD) drift during both the pre-training and fine-tuning stages. To eliminate the bias from different sources, we integrate the tailed drift adaptation and OOD drift detection into a unified framework by extending the concept drift theory to multi-modal. Specifically, a T-distribution-based drift adapter is proposed to effectively mitigate the bias induced by the long-tailed problem, which also facilitates the model in distinguishing OOD data through explicit distribution modelling. Extensive experiments show significant improvements in our model's ability to adapt to tailed drift and OOD drift. Moreover, it enhances the efficiency and accuracy of image-text alignment in vision language model pre-training, particularly in the long-tail open world scenario. Furthermore, we create a set of multi-modal datasets called OpenMMlo, specifically tailored for the long-tailed open world scenario, to validate our findings. To foster the development of the multi-modal community, we have made both OpenMMlo datasets and our code publicly available at: https://github.com/Anonymous0Knight/ConceptDriftMLLMs.

Image classification accuracy on the ImageNet dataset has been a barometer for progress in computer vision over the last decade. Several recent papers have questioned the degree to which the benchmark remains useful to the community, yet innovations continue to contribute gains to performance, with today's largest models achieving 90%+ top-1 accuracy. To help contextualize progress on ImageNet and provide a more meaningful evaluation for today's state-of-the-art models, we manually review and categorize every remaining mistake that a few top models make in order to provide insight into the long-tail of errors on one of the most benchmarked datasets in computer vision. We focus on the multi-label subset evaluation of ImageNet, where today's best models achieve upwards of 97% top-1 accuracy. Our analysis reveals that nearly half of the supposed mistakes are not mistakes at all, and we uncover new valid multi-labels, demonstrating that, without careful review, we are significantly underestimating the performance of these models. On the other hand, we also find that today's best models still make a significant number of mistakes (40%) that are obviously wrong to human reviewers. To calibrate future progress on ImageNet, we provide an updated multi-label evaluation set, and we curate ImageNet-Major: a 68-example "major error" slice of the obvious mistakes made by today's top models -- a slice where models should achieve near perfection, but today are far from doing so.

We introduce Feasible Learning (FL), a sample-centric learning paradigm where models are trained by solving a feasibility problem that bounds the loss for each training sample. In contrast to the ubiquitous Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework, which optimizes for average performance, FL demands satisfactory performance on every individual data point. Since any model that meets the prescribed performance threshold is a valid FL solution, the choice of optimization algorithm and its dynamics play a crucial role in shaping the properties of the resulting solutions. In particular, we study a primal-dual approach which dynamically re-weights the importance of each sample during training. To address the challenge of setting a meaningful threshold in practice, we introduce a relaxation of FL that incorporates slack variables of minimal norm. Our empirical analysis, spanning image classification, age regression, and preference optimization in large language models, demonstrates that models trained via FL can learn from data while displaying improved tail behavior compared to ERM, with only a marginal impact on average performance.

The task of 3D semantic scene graph (3DSSG) prediction in the point cloud is challenging since (1) the 3D point cloud only captures geometric structures with limited semantics compared to 2D images, and (2) long-tailed relation distribution inherently hinders the learning of unbiased prediction. Since 2D images provide rich semantics and scene graphs are in nature coped with languages, in this study, we propose Visual-Linguistic Semantics Assisted Training (VL-SAT) scheme that can significantly empower 3DSSG prediction models with discrimination about long-tailed and ambiguous semantic relations. The key idea is to train a powerful multi-modal oracle model to assist the 3D model. This oracle learns reliable structural representations based on semantics from vision, language, and 3D geometry, and its benefits can be heterogeneously passed to the 3D model during the training stage. By effectively utilizing visual-linguistic semantics in training, our VL-SAT can significantly boost common 3DSSG prediction models, such as SGFN and SGGpoint, only with 3D inputs in the inference stage, especially when dealing with tail relation triplets. Comprehensive evaluations and ablation studies on the 3DSSG dataset have validated the effectiveness of the proposed scheme. Code is available at https://github.com/wz7in/CVPR2023-VLSAT.

Natural data are often long-tail distributed over semantic classes. Existing recognition methods tackle this imbalanced classification by placing more emphasis on the tail data, through class re-balancing/re-weighting or ensembling over different data groups, resulting in increased tail accuracies but reduced head accuracies. We take a dynamic view of the training data and provide a principled model bias and variance analysis as the training data fluctuates: Existing long-tail classifiers invariably increase the model variance and the head-tail model bias gap remains large, due to more and larger confusion with hard negatives for the tail. We propose a new long-tailed classifier called RoutIng Diverse Experts (RIDE). It reduces the model variance with multiple experts, reduces the model bias with a distribution-aware diversity loss, reduces the computational cost with a dynamic expert routing module. RIDE outperforms the state-of-the-art by 5% to 7% on CIFAR100-LT, ImageNet-LT and iNaturalist 2018 benchmarks. It is also a universal framework that is applicable to various backbone networks, long-tailed algorithms, and training mechanisms for consistent performance gains. Our code is available at: https://github.com/frank-xwang/RIDE-LongTailRecognition.

Excellent tail performance is crucial for modern machine learning tasks, such as algorithmic fairness, class imbalance, and risk-sensitive decision making, as it ensures the effective handling of challenging samples within a dataset. Tail performance is also a vital determinant of success for personalized recommender systems to reduce the risk of losing users with low satisfaction. This study introduces a "safe" collaborative filtering method that prioritizes recommendation quality for less-satisfied users rather than focusing on the average performance. Our approach minimizes the conditional value at risk (CVaR), which represents the average risk over the tails of users' loss. To overcome computational challenges for web-scale recommender systems, we develop a robust yet practical algorithm that extends the most scalable method, implicit alternating least squares (iALS). Empirical evaluation on real-world datasets demonstrates the excellent tail performance of our approach while maintaining competitive computational efficiency.

When facing data with imbalanced classes or groups, practitioners follow an intriguing strategy to achieve best results. They throw away examples until the classes or groups are balanced in size, and then perform empirical risk minimization on the reduced training set. This opposes common wisdom in learning theory, where the expected error is supposed to decrease as the dataset grows in size. In this work, we leverage extreme value theory to address this apparent contradiction. Our results show that the tails of the data distribution play an important role in determining the worst-group-accuracy of linear classifiers. When learning on data with heavy tails, throwing away data restores the geometric symmetry of the resulting classifier, and therefore improves its worst-group generalization.

Heavy-tail phenomena in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) have been reported in several empirical studies. Experimental evidence in previous works suggests a strong interplay between the heaviness of the tails and generalization behavior of SGD. To address this empirical phenomena theoretically, several works have made strong topological and statistical assumptions to link the generalization error to heavy tails. Very recently, new generalization bounds have been proven, indicating a non-monotonic relationship between the generalization error and heavy tails, which is more pertinent to the reported empirical observations. While these bounds do not require additional topological assumptions given that SGD can be modeled using a heavy-tailed stochastic differential equation (SDE), they can only apply to simple quadratic problems. In this paper, we build on this line of research and develop generalization bounds for a more general class of objective functions, which includes non-convex functions as well. Our approach is based on developing Wasserstein stability bounds for heavy-tailed SDEs and their discretizations, which we then convert to generalization bounds. Our results do not require any nontrivial assumptions; yet, they shed more light to the empirical observations, thanks to the generality of the loss functions.

Real-world data tends to follow a long-tailed distribution, where the class imbalance results in dominance of the head classes during training. In this paper, we propose a frustratingly simple but effective step-wise learning framework to gradually enhance the capability of the model in detecting all categories of long-tailed datasets. Specifically, we build smooth-tail data where the long-tailed distribution of categories decays smoothly to correct the bias towards head classes. We pre-train a model on the whole long-tailed data to preserve discriminability between all categories. We then fine-tune the class-agnostic modules of the pre-trained model on the head class dominant replay data to get a head class expert model with improved decision boundaries from all categories. Finally, we train a unified model on the tail class dominant replay data while transferring knowledge from the head class expert model to ensure accurate detection of all categories. Extensive experiments on long-tailed datasets LVIS v0.5 and LVIS v1.0 demonstrate the superior performance of our method, where we can improve the AP with ResNet-50 backbone from 27.0% to 30.3% AP, and especially for the rare categories from 15.5% to 24.9% AP. Our best model using ResNet-101 backbone can achieve 30.7% AP, which suppresses all existing detectors using the same backbone.

The paper studies the linear model for Bitcoin price which includes regression features based on Bitcoin currency statistics, mining processes, Google search trends, Wikipedia pages visits. The pattern of deviation of regression model prediction from real prices is simpler comparing to price time series. It is assumed that this pattern can be predicted by an experienced expert. In such a way, using the combination of the regression model and expert correction, one can receive better results than with either regression model or expert opinion only. It is shown that Bayesian approach makes it possible to utilize the probabilistic approach using distributions with fat tails and take into account the outliers in Bitcoin price time series.

Language models have been effective in a wide range of applications, yet the most sophisticated models are often proprietary. For example, GPT-4 by OpenAI and various models by Anthropic are expensive and consume substantial energy. In contrast, the open-source community has produced competitive models, like Llama3. Furthermore, niche-specific smaller language models, such as those tailored for legal, medical or financial tasks, have outperformed their proprietary counterparts. This paper introduces a novel approach that employs functional tokens to integrate multiple open-source models, each optimized for particular tasks. Our newly developed Octopus v4 model leverages functional tokens to intelligently direct user queries to the most appropriate vertical model and reformat the query to achieve the best performance. Octopus v4, an evolution of the Octopus v1, v2, and v3 models, excels in selection and parameter understanding and reformatting. Additionally, we explore the use of graph as a versatile data structure that effectively coordinates multiple open-source models by harnessing the capabilities of the Octopus model and functional tokens. Use our open-sourced GitHub (https://www.nexa4ai.com/) to try Octopus v4 models (https://huggingface.co/NexaAIDev/Octopus-v4), and contrite to a larger graph of language models. By activating models less than 10B parameters, we achieved SOTA MMLU score of 74.8 among the same level models.

In the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, a randomized probability matching policy called Thompson sampling (TS) has shown excellent performance in various reward models. In addition to the empirical performance, TS has been shown to achieve asymptotic problem-dependent lower bounds in several models. However, its optimality has been mainly addressed under light-tailed or one-parameter models that belong to exponential families. In this paper, we consider the optimality of TS for the Pareto model that has a heavy tail and is parameterized by two unknown parameters. Specifically, we discuss the optimality of TS with probability matching priors that include the Jeffreys prior and the reference priors. We first prove that TS with certain probability matching priors can achieve the optimal regret bound. Then, we show the suboptimality of TS with other priors, including the Jeffreys and the reference priors. Nevertheless, we find that TS with the Jeffreys and reference priors can achieve the asymptotic lower bound if one uses a truncation procedure. These results suggest carefully choosing noninformative priors to avoid suboptimality and show the effectiveness of truncation procedures in TS-based policies.

Long-tailed recognition with imbalanced class distribution naturally emerges in practical machine learning applications. Existing methods such as data reweighing, resampling, and supervised contrastive learning enforce the class balance with a price of introducing imbalance between instances of head class and tail class, which may ignore the underlying rich semantic substructures of the former and exaggerate the biases in the latter. We overcome these drawbacks by a novel ``subclass-balancing contrastive learning (SBCL)'' approach that clusters each head class into multiple subclasses of similar sizes as the tail classes and enforce representations to capture the two-layer class hierarchy between the original classes and their subclasses. Since the clustering is conducted in the representation space and updated during the course of training, the subclass labels preserve the semantic substructures of head classes. Meanwhile, it does not overemphasize tail class samples, so each individual instance contribute to the representation learning equally. Hence, our method achieves both the instance- and subclass-balance, while the original class labels are also learned through contrastive learning among subclasses from different classes. We evaluate SBCL over a list of long-tailed benchmark datasets and it achieves the state-of-the-art performance. In addition, we present extensive analyses and ablation studies of SBCL to verify its advantages.

Diffusion models are a class of generative models that learn to synthesize samples by inverting a diffusion process that gradually maps data into noise. While these models have enjoyed great success recently, a full theoretical understanding of their observed properties is still lacking, in particular, their weak sensitivity to the choice of noise family and the role of adequate scheduling of noise levels for good synthesis. By identifying a correspondence between diffusion models and a well-known paradigm in cognitive science known as serial reproduction, whereby human agents iteratively observe and reproduce stimuli from memory, we show how the aforementioned properties of diffusion models can be explained as a natural consequence of this correspondence. We then complement our theoretical analysis with simulations that exhibit these key features. Our work highlights how classic paradigms in cognitive science can shed light on state-of-the-art machine learning problems.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

We introduce marginalization models (MaMs), a new family of generative models for high-dimensional discrete data. They offer scalable and flexible generative modeling with tractable likelihoods by explicitly modeling all induced marginal distributions. Marginalization models enable fast evaluation of arbitrary marginal probabilities with a single forward pass of the neural network, which overcomes a major limitation of methods with exact marginal inference, such as autoregressive models (ARMs). We propose scalable methods for learning the marginals, grounded in the concept of "marginalization self-consistency". Unlike previous methods, MaMs support scalable training of any-order generative models for high-dimensional problems under the setting of energy-based training, where the goal is to match the learned distribution to a given desired probability (specified by an unnormalized (log) probability function such as energy function or reward function). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of discrete data distributions, including binary images, language, physical systems, and molecules, for maximum likelihood and energy-based training settings. MaMs achieve orders of magnitude speedup in evaluating the marginal probabilities on both settings. For energy-based training tasks, MaMs enable any-order generative modeling of high-dimensional problems beyond the capability of previous methods. Code is at https://github.com/PrincetonLIPS/MaM.

Encouraged by decision makers' appetite for future information on topics ranging from elections to pandemics, and enabled by the explosion of data and computational methods, model based forecasts have garnered increasing influence on a breadth of decisions in modern society. Using several classic examples from fisheries management, I demonstrate that selecting the model or models that produce the most accurate and precise forecast (measured by statistical scores) can sometimes lead to worse outcomes (measured by real-world objectives). This can create a forecast trap, in which the outcomes such as fish biomass or economic yield decline while the manager becomes increasingly convinced that these actions are consistent with the best models and data available. The forecast trap is not unique to this example, but a fundamental consequence of non-uniqueness of models. Existing practices promoting a broader set of models are the best way to avoid the trap.

Meta-learning has emerged as an effective methodology to model several real-world tasks and problems due to its extraordinary effectiveness in the low-data regime. There are many scenarios ranging from the classification of rare diseases to language modelling of uncommon languages where the availability of large datasets is rare. Similarly, for more broader scenarios like self-driving, an autonomous vehicle needs to be trained to handle every situation well. This requires training the ML model on a variety of tasks with good quality data. But often times, we find that the data distribution across various tasks is skewed, i.e.the data follows a long-tail distribution. This leads to the model performing well on some tasks and not performing so well on others leading to model robustness issues. Meta-learning has recently emerged as a potential learning paradigm which can effectively learn from one task and generalize that learning to unseen tasks. In this study, we aim to exploit external knowledge of task relations to improve training stability via effective mini-batching of tasks. We hypothesize that selecting a diverse set of tasks in a mini-batch will lead to a better estimate of the full gradient and hence will lead to a reduction of noise in training.

In this work we take a Category Theoretic perspective on the relationship between probabilistic modeling and function approximation. We begin by defining two extensions of function composition to stochastic process subordination: one based on the co-Kleisli category under the comonad (Omega x -) and one based on the parameterization of a category with a Lawvere theory. We show how these extensions relate to the category Stoch and other Markov Categories. Next, we apply the Para construction to extend stochastic processes to parameterized statistical models and we define a way to compose the likelihood functions of these models. We conclude with a demonstration of how the Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure defines an identity-on-objects functor from the category of statistical models to the category of Learners. Code to accompany this paper can be found at https://github.com/dshieble/Categorical_Stochastic_Processes_and_Likelihood

As AI model size grows, neural scaling laws have become a crucial tool to predict the improvements of large models when increasing capacity and the size of original (human or natural) training data. Yet, the widespread use of popular models means that the ecosystem of online data and text will co-evolve to progressively contain increased amounts of synthesized data. In this paper we ask: How will the scaling laws change in the inevitable regime where synthetic data makes its way into the training corpus? Will future models, still improve, or be doomed to degenerate up to total (model) collapse? We develop a theoretical framework of model collapse through the lens of scaling laws. We discover a wide range of decay phenomena, analyzing loss of scaling, shifted scaling with number of generations, the ''un-learning" of skills, and grokking when mixing human and synthesized data. Our theory is validated by large-scale experiments with a transformer on an arithmetic task and text generation using the large language model Llama2.

We study the problem of estimating the distribution of the return of a policy using an offline dataset that is not generated from the policy, i.e., distributional offline policy evaluation (OPE). We propose an algorithm called Fitted Likelihood Estimation (FLE), which conducts a sequence of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and has the flexibility of integrating any state-of-the-art probabilistic generative models as long as it can be trained via MLE. FLE can be used for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings where rewards can be multi-dimensional vectors. Our theoretical results show that for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings, FLE can learn distributions that are close to the ground truth under total variation distance and Wasserstein distance, respectively. Our theoretical results hold under the conditions that the offline data covers the test policy's traces and that the supervised learning MLE procedures succeed. Experimentally, we demonstrate the performance of FLE with two generative models, Gaussian mixture models and diffusion models. For the multi-dimensional reward setting, FLE with diffusion models is capable of estimating the complicated distribution of the return of a test policy.

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

This paper investigates the problem of generalized linear bandits with heavy-tailed rewards, whose (1+epsilon)-th moment is bounded for some epsilonin (0,1]. Although there exist methods for generalized linear bandits, most of them focus on bounded or sub-Gaussian rewards and are not well-suited for many real-world scenarios, such as financial markets and web-advertising. To address this issue, we propose two novel algorithms based on truncation and mean of medians. These algorithms achieve an almost optimal regret bound of O(dT^{1{1+epsilon}}), where d is the dimension of contextual information and T is the time horizon. Our truncation-based algorithm supports online learning, distinguishing it from existing truncation-based approaches. Additionally, our mean-of-medians-based algorithm requires only O(log T) rewards and one estimator per epoch, making it more practical. Moreover, our algorithms improve the regret bounds by a logarithmic factor compared to existing algorithms when epsilon=1. Numerical experimental results confirm the merits of our algorithms.

Data collected from the real world typically exhibit long-tailed distributions, where frequent classes contain abundant data while rare ones have only a limited number of samples. While existing supervised learning approaches have been proposed to tackle such data imbalance, the requirement of label supervision would limit their applicability to real-world scenarios in which label annotation might not be available. Without the access to class labels nor the associated class frequencies, we propose Frequency-Aware Self-Supervised Learning (FASSL) in this paper. Targeting at learning from unlabeled data with inherent long-tailed distributions, the goal of FASSL is to produce discriminative feature representations for downstream classification tasks. In FASSL, we first learn frequency-aware prototypes, reflecting the associated long-tailed distribution. Particularly focusing on rare-class samples, the relationships between image data and the derived prototypes are further exploited with the introduced self-supervised learning scheme. Experiments on long-tailed image datasets quantitatively and qualitatively verify the effectiveness of our learning scheme.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have made significant progress in advancing artificial general intelligence (AGI), leading to the development of increasingly large models such as GPT-4 and LLaMA-405B. However, scaling up model sizes results in exponentially higher computational costs and energy consumption, making these models impractical for academic researchers and businesses with limited resources. At the same time, Small Models (SMs) are frequently used in practical settings, although their significance is currently underestimated. This raises important questions about the role of small models in the era of LLMs, a topic that has received limited attention in prior research. In this work, we systematically examine the relationship between LLMs and SMs from two key perspectives: Collaboration and Competition. We hope this survey provides valuable insights for practitioners, fostering a deeper understanding of the contribution of small models and promoting more efficient use of computational resources. The code is available at https://github.com/tigerchen52/role_of_small_models

Generalization is arguably the most important goal of statistical language modeling research. Publicly available benchmarks and papers published with an open-source code have been critical to advancing the field. However, it is often very difficult, and sometimes even impossible, to reproduce the results fully as reported in publications. In this paper, we propose a simple framework that should help advance the state of the art in language modeling in terms of generalization. We propose to publish not just the code, but also probabilities on dev and test sets with future publications so that one can easily add the new model into an ensemble. This has crucial advantages: it is much easier to determine whether a newly proposed model is actually complementary to the current baseline. Therefore, instead of inventing new names for the old tricks, the scientific community can advance faster. Finally, this approach promotes diversity of ideas: one does not need to create an individual model that is the new state of the art to attract attention; it will be sufficient to develop a new model that learns patterns which other models do not. Thus, even a suboptimal model can be found to have value. Remarkably, our approach has yielded new state-of-the-art results across various language modeling benchmarks up to 10%.

Recently, diffusion models have emerged as a new paradigm for generative models. Despite the success in domains using continuous signals such as vision and audio, adapting diffusion models to natural language is under-explored due to the discrete nature of texts, especially for conditional generation. We tackle this challenge by proposing DiffuSeq: a diffusion model designed for sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) text generation tasks. Upon extensive evaluation over a wide range of Seq2Seq tasks, we find DiffuSeq achieving comparable or even better performance than six established baselines, including a state-of-the-art model that is based on pre-trained language models. Apart from quality, an intriguing property of DiffuSeq is its high diversity during generation, which is desired in many Seq2Seq tasks. We further include a theoretical analysis revealing the connection between DiffuSeq and autoregressive/non-autoregressive models. Bringing together theoretical analysis and empirical evidence, we demonstrate the great potential of diffusion models in complex conditional language generation tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/Shark-NLP/DiffuSeq

We introduce a new class of algorithms, Stochastic Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM), for estimation and inference on (overidentified) moment restriction models. Our SGMM is a novel stochastic approximation alternative to the popular Hansen (1982) (offline) GMM, and offers fast and scalable implementation with the ability to handle streaming datasets in real time. We establish the almost sure convergence, and the (functional) central limit theorem for the inefficient online 2SLS and the efficient SGMM. Moreover, we propose online versions of the Durbin-Wu-Hausman and Sargan-Hansen tests that can be seamlessly integrated within the SGMM framework. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show that as the sample size increases, the SGMM matches the standard (offline) GMM in terms of estimation accuracy and gains over computational efficiency, indicating its practical value for both large-scale and online datasets. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by a proof of concept using two well known empirical examples with large sample sizes.

Diffusion models have emerged as a powerful new family of deep generative models with record-breaking performance in many applications, including image synthesis, video generation, and molecule design. In this survey, we provide an overview of the rapidly expanding body of work on diffusion models, categorizing the research into three key areas: efficient sampling, improved likelihood estimation, and handling data with special structures. We also discuss the potential for combining diffusion models with other generative models for enhanced results. We further review the wide-ranging applications of diffusion models in fields spanning from computer vision, natural language generation, temporal data modeling, to interdisciplinary applications in other scientific disciplines. This survey aims to provide a contextualized, in-depth look at the state of diffusion models, identifying the key areas of focus and pointing to potential areas for further exploration. Github: https://github.com/YangLing0818/Diffusion-Models-Papers-Survey-Taxonomy.

We study nonparametric density estimation in non-stationary drift settings. Given a sequence of independent samples taken from a distribution that gradually changes in time, the goal is to compute the best estimate for the current distribution. We prove tight minimax risk bounds for both discrete and continuous smooth densities, where the minimum is over all possible estimates and the maximum is over all possible distributions that satisfy the drift constraints. Our technique handles a broad class of drift models, and generalizes previous results on agnostic learning under drift.

In economy, markets are denoted as efficient when it is impossible to systematically generate profits which outperform the average. In the past years, the concept has been tested in other domains such as the growing sports betting market. Surprisingly, despite its large size and its level of maturity, sports betting shows traits of inefficiency. The anomalies indicate the existence of strategies which shift betting from a game of chance towards a game of skill. This article shows an example for an inefficiency detected in the German soccer betting TOTO 13er Wette, which is operated by state-run lottery agencies. Gamblers have to guess the outcome (win, draw, loss) of 13 soccer matches listed on a lottery tip. Applying stochastic methods, a recipe is presented to determine hit rates for single match outcomes. More important, the recipe provides the number of lottery tips required to achieve a specific number of strikes (number of correct match forecasts per lottery tip) for any given level of safety. An approximation is derived to cope with large numbers in hypergeometric distributions, valid under certain constraints. Overall, the strategy does lead to returns exceeding the aggregated lottery fees, resulting in moderate, but consistent profits. It is briefly discussed if lessions learned from soccer betting can be transferred back to financial markets, because gamblers and retail investors face similar challenges and opportunities.

This paper studies Kernel density estimation for a high-dimensional distribution rho(x). Traditional approaches have focused on the limit of large number of data points n and fixed dimension d. We analyze instead the regime where both the number n of data points y_i and their dimensionality d grow with a fixed ratio alpha=(log n)/d. Our study reveals three distinct statistical regimes for the kernel-based estimate of the density hat rho_h^{D}(x)=1{n h^d}sum_{i=1}^n Kleft(x-y_i{h}right), depending on the bandwidth h: a classical regime for large bandwidth where the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds, which is akin to the one found in traditional approaches. Below a certain value of the bandwidth, h_{CLT}(alpha), we find that the CLT breaks down. The statistics of hat rho_h^{D}(x) for a fixed x drawn from rho(x) is given by a heavy-tailed distribution (an alpha-stable distribution). In particular below a value h_G(alpha), we find that hat rho_h^{D}(x) is governed by extreme value statistics: only a few points in the database matter and give the dominant contribution to the density estimator. We provide a detailed analysis for high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data. We show that the optimal bandwidth threshold based on Kullback-Leibler divergence lies in the new statistical regime identified in this paper. Our findings reveal limitations of classical approaches, show the relevance of these new statistical regimes, and offer new insights for Kernel density estimation in high-dimensional settings.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

We initiate the study of statistical inference and A/B testing for first-price pacing equilibria (FPPE). The FPPE model captures the dynamics resulting from large-scale first-price auction markets where buyers use pacing-based budget management. Such markets arise in the context of internet advertising, where budgets are prevalent. We propose a statistical framework for the FPPE model, in which a limit FPPE with a continuum of items models the long-run steady-state behavior of the auction platform, and an observable FPPE consisting of a finite number of items provides the data to estimate primitives of the limit FPPE, such as revenue, Nash social welfare (a fair metric of efficiency), and other parameters of interest. We develop central limit theorems and asymptotically valid confidence intervals. Furthermore, we establish the asymptotic local minimax optimality of our estimators. We then show that the theory can be used for conducting statistically valid A/B testing on auction platforms. Numerical simulations verify our central limit theorems, and empirical coverage rates for our confidence intervals agree with our theory.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown the potential to revolutionize natural language processing tasks in various domains, sparking great interest in vertical-specific large models. However, unlike proprietary models such as BloombergGPT and FinGPT, which have leveraged their unique data accumulations to make strides in the finance domain, there hasn't not many similar large language models in the Chinese legal domain to facilitate its digital transformation. In this paper, we propose an open-source legal large language model named ChatLaw. Due to the importance of data quality, we carefully designed a legal domain fine-tuning dataset. Additionally, to overcome the problem of model hallucinations in legal data screening during reference data retrieval, we introduce a method that combines vector database retrieval with keyword retrieval to effectively reduce the inaccuracy of relying solely on vector database retrieval. Furthermore, we propose a self-attention method to enhance the ability of large models to overcome errors present in reference data, further optimizing the issue of model hallucinations at the model level and improving the problem-solving capabilities of large models. We also open-sourced our model and part of the data at https://github.com/PKU-YuanGroup/ChatLaw.

Volatility clustering is an important characteristic that has a significant effect on the behavior of stock markets. However, designing robust models for accurate prediction of future volatilities of stock prices is a very challenging research problem. We present several volatility models based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) framework for modeling the volatility of ten stocks listed in the national stock exchange (NSE) of India. The stocks are selected from the auto sector and the banking sector of the Indian economy, and they have a significant impact on the sectoral index of their respective sectors in the NSE. The historical stock price records from Jan 1, 2010, to Apr 30, 2021, are scraped from the Yahoo Finance website using the DataReader API of the Pandas module in the Python programming language. The GARCH modules are built and fine-tuned on the training data and then tested on the out-of-sample data to evaluate the performance of the models. The analysis of the results shows that asymmetric GARCH models yield more accurate forecasts on the future volatility of stocks.

Moment restrictions and their conditional counterparts emerge in many areas of machine learning and statistics ranging from causal inference to reinforcement learning. Estimators for these tasks, generally called methods of moments, include the prominent generalized method of moments (GMM) which has recently gained attention in causal inference. GMM is a special case of the broader family of empirical likelihood estimators which are based on approximating a population distribution by means of minimizing a varphi-divergence to an empirical distribution. However, the use of varphi-divergences effectively limits the candidate distributions to reweightings of the data samples. We lift this long-standing limitation and provide a method of moments that goes beyond data reweighting. This is achieved by defining an empirical likelihood estimator based on maximum mean discrepancy which we term the kernel method of moments (KMM). We provide a variant of our estimator for conditional moment restrictions and show that it is asymptotically first-order optimal for such problems. Finally, we show that our method achieves competitive performance on several conditional moment restriction tasks.

This paper introduces an efficient fine-tuning method for large pre-trained models, offering strong in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) performance. Breaking away from traditional practices that need a multitude of fine-tuned models for averaging, our approach employs significantly fewer models to achieve final weights yet yield superior accuracy. Drawing from key insights in the weight space of fine-tuned weights, we uncover a strong link between the performance and proximity to the center of weight space. Based on this, we introduce a method that approximates a center-close weight using only two fine-tuned models, applicable during or after training. Our innovative layer-wise weight averaging technique surpasses state-of-the-art model methods such as Model Soup, utilizing only two fine-tuned models. This strategy can be aptly coined Model Stock, highlighting its reliance on selecting a minimal number of models to draw a more optimized-averaged model. We demonstrate the efficacy of Model Stock with fine-tuned models based upon pre-trained CLIP architectures, achieving remarkable performance on both ID and OOD tasks on the standard benchmarks, all while barely bringing extra computational demands. Our code and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/naver-ai/model-stock.

This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk analysis that does not rely on traditional price and market data, instead using market news to model assets as distributions over a metric space of risk factors. By representing asset returns as integrals over the scalar field of these risk factors, we derive the covariance structure between asset returns. Utilizing encoder-only language models to embed this news data, we explore the relationships between asset return distributions through the concept of Energy Distance, establishing connections between distributional differences and excess returns co-movements. This data-agnostic approach provides new insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and the construction of hedging strategies. Our findings have significant implications for both theoretical finance and practical risk management, offering a more robust framework for modelling complex financial systems without depending on conventional market data.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

Contextual pretrained language models, such as BERT (Devlin et al., 2019), have made significant breakthrough in various NLP tasks by training on large scale of unlabeled text re-sources.Financial sector also accumulates large amount of financial communication text.However, there is no pretrained finance specific language models available. In this work,we address the need by pretraining a financial domain specific BERT models, FinBERT, using a large scale of financial communication corpora. Experiments on three financial sentiment classification tasks confirm the advantage of FinBERT over generic domain BERT model. The code and pretrained models are available at https://github.com/yya518/FinBERT. We hope this will be useful for practitioners and researchers working on financial NLP tasks.

The recent rapid progress in (self) supervised learning models is in large part predicted by empirical scaling laws: a model's performance scales proportionally to its size. Analogous scaling laws remain elusive for reinforcement learning domains, however, where increasing the parameter count of a model often hurts its final performance. In this paper, we demonstrate that incorporating Mixture-of-Expert (MoE) modules, and in particular Soft MoEs (Puigcerver et al., 2023), into value-based networks results in more parameter-scalable models, evidenced by substantial performance increases across a variety of training regimes and model sizes. This work thus provides strong empirical evidence towards developing scaling laws for reinforcement learning.

Machine learning models in modern mass-market applications are often updated over time. One of the foremost challenges faced is that, despite increasing overall performance, these updates may flip specific model predictions in unpredictable ways. In practice, researchers quantify the number of unstable predictions between models pre and post update -- i.e., predictive churn. In this paper, we study this effect through the lens of predictive multiplicity -- i.e., the prevalence of conflicting predictions over the set of near-optimal models (the Rashomon set). We show how traditional measures of predictive multiplicity can be used to examine expected churn over this set of prospective models -- i.e., the set of models that may be used to replace a baseline model in deployment. We present theoretical results on the expected churn between models within the Rashomon set from different perspectives. And we characterize expected churn over model updates via the Rashomon set, pairing our analysis with empirical results on real-world datasets -- showing how our approach can be used to better anticipate, reduce, and avoid churn in consumer-facing applications. Further, we show that our approach is useful even for models enhanced with uncertainty awareness.

Model uncertainty and limited data are fundamental challenges to robust management of human intervention in a natural system. These challenges are acutely highlighted by concerns that many ecological systems may contain tipping points, such as Allee population sizes. Before a collapse, we do not know where the tipping points lie, if they exist at all. Hence, we know neither a complete model of the system dynamics nor do we have access to data in some large region of state-space where such a tipping point might exist. We illustrate how a Bayesian Non-Parametric (BNP) approach using a Gaussian Process (GP) prior provides a flexible representation of this inherent uncertainty. We embed GPs in a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) framework in order to make robust management predictions with both model uncertainty and limited data. We use simulations to evaluate this approach as compared with the standard approach of using model selection to choose from a set of candidate models. We find that model selection erroneously favors models without tipping points -- leading to harvest policies that guarantee extinction. The GPDP performs nearly as well as the true model and significantly outperforms standard approaches. We illustrate this using examples of simulated single-species dynamics, where the standard model selection approach should be most effective, and find that it still fails to account for uncertainty appropriately and leads to population crashes, while management based on the GPDP does not, since it does not underestimate the uncertainty outside of the observed data.

Stochastically Extended Adversarial (SEA) model is introduced by Sachs et al. [2022] as an interpolation between stochastic and adversarial online convex optimization. Under the smoothness condition, they demonstrate that the expected regret of optimistic follow-the-regularized-leader (FTRL) depends on the cumulative stochastic variance sigma_{1:T}^2 and the cumulative adversarial variation Sigma_{1:T}^2 for convex functions. They also provide a slightly weaker bound based on the maximal stochastic variance sigma_{max}^2 and the maximal adversarial variation Sigma_{max}^2 for strongly convex functions. Inspired by their work, we investigate the theoretical guarantees of optimistic online mirror descent (OMD) for the SEA model. For convex and smooth functions, we obtain the same O(sigma_{1:T^2}+Sigma_{1:T^2}) regret bound, without the convexity requirement of individual functions. For strongly convex and smooth functions, we establish an O(min{log (sigma_{1:T}^2+Sigma_{1:T}^2), (sigma_{max}^2 + Sigma_{max}^2) log T}) bound, better than their O((sigma_{max}^2 + Sigma_{max}^2) log T) bound. For exp-concave and smooth functions, we achieve a new O(dlog(sigma_{1:T}^2+Sigma_{1:T}^2)) bound. Owing to the OMD framework, we can further extend our result to obtain dynamic regret guarantees, which are more favorable in non-stationary online scenarios. The attained results allow us to recover excess risk bounds of the stochastic setting and regret bounds of the adversarial setting, and derive new guarantees for many intermediate scenarios.

Prompted models have demonstrated impressive few-shot learning abilities. Repeated interactions at test-time with a single model, or the composition of multiple models together, further expands capabilities. These compositions are probabilistic models, and may be expressed in the language of graphical models with random variables whose values are complex data types such as strings. Cases with control flow and dynamic structure require techniques from probabilistic programming, which allow implementing disparate model structures and inference strategies in a unified language. We formalize several existing techniques from this perspective, including scratchpads / chain of thought, verifiers, STaR, selection-inference, and tool use. We refer to the resulting programs as language model cascades.

We propose Multiple Experts Fine-tuning Framework to build a financial large language model (LLM), DISC-FinLLM. Our methodology improves general LLMs by endowing them with multi-turn question answering abilities, domain text processing capabilities, mathematical computation skills, and retrieval-enhanced generation capabilities. We build a financial instruction-tuning dataset named DISC-FIN-SFT, including instruction samples of four categories (consulting, NLP tasks, computing and retrieval-augmented generation). Evaluations conducted on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that our model performs better than baseline models in various financial scenarios. Further resources can be found at https://github.com/FudanDISC/DISC-FinLLM.

Deep hedging is a promising direction in quantitative finance, incorporating models and techniques from deep learning research. While giving excellent hedging strategies, models inherently requires careful treatment in designing architectures for neural networks. To mitigate such difficulties, we introduce SigFormer, a novel deep learning model that combines the power of path signatures and transformers to handle sequential data, particularly in cases with irregularities. Path signatures effectively capture complex data patterns, while transformers provide superior sequential attention. Our proposed model is empirically compared to existing methods on synthetic data, showcasing faster learning and enhanced robustness, especially in the presence of irregular underlying price data. Additionally, we validate our model performance through a real-world backtest on hedging the SP 500 index, demonstrating positive outcomes.

Recent work has identified simple empirical scaling laws for language models, linking compute budget, dataset size, model size, and autoregressive modeling loss. The validity of these simple power laws across orders of magnitude in model scale provides compelling evidence that larger models are also more capable models. However, scaling up models under the constraints of hardware and infrastructure is no easy feat, and rapidly becomes a hard and expensive engineering problem. We investigate ways to tentatively cheat scaling laws, and train larger models for cheaper. We emulate an increase in effective parameters, using efficient approximations: either by doping the models with frozen random parameters, or by using fast structured transforms in place of dense linear layers. We find that the scaling relationship between test loss and compute depends only on the actual number of trainable parameters; scaling laws cannot be deceived by spurious parameters.

It has recently been conjectured that neural network solution sets reachable via stochastic gradient descent (SGD) are convex, considering permutation invariances (Entezari et al., 2022). This means that a linear path can connect two independent solutions with low loss, given the weights of one of the models are appropriately permuted. However, current methods to test this theory often require very wide networks to succeed. In this work, we conjecture that more generally, the SGD solution set is a "star domain" that contains a "star model" that is linearly connected to all the other solutions via paths with low loss values, modulo permutations. We propose the Starlight algorithm that finds a star model of a given learning task. We validate our claim by showing that this star model is linearly connected with other independently found solutions. As an additional benefit of our study, we demonstrate better uncertainty estimates on the Bayesian Model Averaging over the obtained star domain. Further, we demonstrate star models as potential substitutes for model ensembles. Our code is available at https://github.com/aktsonthalia/starlight.

The application of Transformer-based large models has achieved numerous success in recent years. However, the exponential growth in the parameters of large models introduces formidable memory challenge for edge deployment. Prior works to address this challenge mainly focus on optimizing the model structure and adopting memory swapping methods. However, the former reduces the inference accuracy, and the latter raises the inference latency. This paper introduces PIPELOAD, a novel memory-efficient pipeline execution mechanism. It reduces memory usage by incorporating dynamic memory management and minimizes inference latency by employing parallel model loading. Based on PIPELOAD mechanism, we present Hermes, a framework optimized for large model inference on edge devices. We evaluate Hermes on Transformer-based models of different sizes. Our experiments illustrate that Hermes achieves up to 4.24 X increase in inference speed and 86.7% lower memory consumption than the state-of-the-art pipeline mechanism for BERT and ViT models, 2.58 X increase in inference speed and 90.3% lower memory consumption for GPT-style models.

Building predictive models for robust and accurate prediction of stock prices and stock price movement is a challenging research problem to solve. The well-known efficient market hypothesis believes in the impossibility of accurate prediction of future stock prices in an efficient stock market as the stock prices are assumed to be purely stochastic. However, numerous works proposed by researchers have demonstrated that it is possible to predict future stock prices with a high level of precision using sophisticated algorithms, model architectures, and the selection of appropriate variables in the models. This chapter proposes a collection of predictive regression models built on deep learning architecture for robust and precise prediction of the future prices of a stock listed in the diversified sectors in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The Metastock tool is used to download the historical stock prices over a period of two years (2013- 2014) at 5 minutes intervals. While the records for the first year are used to train the models, the testing is carried out using the remaining records. The design approaches of all the models and their performance results are presented in detail. The models are also compared based on their execution time and accuracy of prediction.

The information retrieval community has recently witnessed a revolution due to large pretrained transformer models. Another key ingredient for this revolution was the MS MARCO dataset, whose scale and diversity has enabled zero-shot transfer learning to various tasks. However, not all IR tasks and domains can benefit from one single dataset equally. Extensive research in various NLP tasks has shown that using domain-specific training data, as opposed to a general-purpose one, improves the performance of neural models. In this work, we harness the few-shot capabilities of large pretrained language models as synthetic data generators for IR tasks. We show that models finetuned solely on our unsupervised dataset outperform strong baselines such as BM25 as well as recently proposed self-supervised dense retrieval methods. Furthermore, retrievers finetuned on both supervised and our synthetic data achieve better zero-shot transfer than models finetuned only on supervised data. Code, models, and data are available at https://github.com/zetaalphavector/inpars .

Estimating truncated density models is difficult, as these models have intractable normalising constants and hard to satisfy boundary conditions. Score matching can be adapted to solve the truncated density estimation problem, but requires a continuous weighting function which takes zero at the boundary and is positive elsewhere. Evaluation of such a weighting function (and its gradient) often requires a closed-form expression of the truncation boundary and finding a solution to a complicated optimisation problem. In this paper, we propose approximate Stein classes, which in turn leads to a relaxed Stein identity for truncated density estimation. We develop a novel discrepancy measure, truncated kernelised Stein discrepancy (TKSD), which does not require fixing a weighting function in advance, and can be evaluated using only samples on the boundary. We estimate a truncated density model by minimising the Lagrangian dual of TKSD. Finally, experiments show the accuracy of our method to be an improvement over previous works even without the explicit functional form of the boundary.

With the increasing volume of high-frequency data in the information age, both challenges and opportunities arise in the prediction of stock volatility. On one hand, the outcome of prediction using tradition method combining stock technical and macroeconomic indicators still leaves room for improvement; on the other hand, macroeconomic indicators and peoples' search record on those search engines affecting their interested topics will intuitively have an impact on the stock volatility. For the convenience of assessment of the influence of these indicators, macroeconomic indicators and stock technical indicators are then grouped into objective factors, while Baidu search indices implying people's interested topics are defined as subjective factors. To align different frequency data, we introduce GARCH-MIDAS model. After mixing all the above data, we then feed them into Transformer model as part of the training data. Our experiments show that this model outperforms the baselines in terms of mean square error. The adaption of both types of data under Transformer model significantly reduces the mean square error from 1.00 to 0.86.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

In online algorithm selection (OAS), instances of an algorithmic problem class are presented to an agent one after another, and the agent has to quickly select a presumably best algorithm from a fixed set of candidate algorithms. For decision problems such as satisfiability (SAT), quality typically refers to the algorithm's runtime. As the latter is known to exhibit a heavy-tail distribution, an algorithm is normally stopped when exceeding a predefined upper time limit. As a consequence, machine learning methods used to optimize an algorithm selection strategy in a data-driven manner need to deal with right-censored samples, a problem that has received little attention in the literature so far. In this work, we revisit multi-armed bandit algorithms for OAS and discuss their capability of dealing with the problem. Moreover, we adapt them towards runtime-oriented losses, allowing for partially censored data while keeping a space- and time-complexity independent of the time horizon. In an extensive experimental evaluation on an adapted version of the ASlib benchmark, we demonstrate that theoretically well-founded methods based on Thompson sampling perform specifically strong and improve in comparison to existing methods.

State-of-the-art results on image recognition tasks are achieved using over-parameterized learning algorithms that (nearly) perfectly fit the training set and are known to fit well even random labels. This tendency to memorize the labels of the training data is not explained by existing theoretical analyses. Memorization of the training data also presents significant privacy risks when the training data contains sensitive personal information and thus it is important to understand whether such memorization is necessary for accurate learning. We provide the first conceptual explanation and a theoretical model for this phenomenon. Specifically, we demonstrate that for natural data distributions memorization of labels is necessary for achieving close-to-optimal generalization error. Crucially, even labels of outliers and noisy labels need to be memorized. The model is motivated and supported by the results of several recent empirical works. In our model, data is sampled from a mixture of subpopulations and our results show that memorization is necessary whenever the distribution of subpopulation frequencies is long-tailed. Image and text data is known to be long-tailed and therefore our results establish a formal link between these empirical phenomena. Our results allow to quantify the cost of limiting memorization in learning and explain the disparate effects that privacy and model compression have on different subgroups.

Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the denoising diffusion model in the function space which also allows us to naturally handle irregularly-sampled observations. The forward process gradually adds noise to functions, preserving their continuity, while the learned reverse process removes the noise and returns functions as new samples. To this end, we define suitable noise sources and introduce novel denoising and score-matching models. We show how our method can be used for multivariate probabilistic forecasting and imputation, and how our model can be interpreted as a neural process.

For a sequence of random variables (X_1, X_2, ldots, X_n), n geq 1, that are independent and identically distributed with a regularly varying tail with index -alpha, alpha geq 0, we show that the contribution of the maximum term M_n triangleq max(X_1,ldots,X_n) in the sum S_n triangleq X_1 + cdots +X_n, as n to infty, decreases monotonically with alpha in stochastic ordering sense.

We study the conformal bootstrap of 1D CFTs on the straight Maldacena-Wilson line in 4D {cal N}=4 super-Yang-Mills theory. We introduce an improved truncation scheme with an 'OPE tail' approximation and use it to reproduce the 'bootstrability' results of Cavagli\`a et al. for the OPE-coefficients squared of the first three unprotected operators. For example, for the first OPE-coefficient squared at 't Hooft coupling (4pi)^2, linear-functional methods with two sum rules from integrated correlators give the rigorous result 0.294014873 pm 4.88 cdot 10^{-8}, whereas our methods give with machine-precision computations 0.294014228 pm 6.77 cdot 10^{-7}. For our numerical searches, we benchmark the Reinforcement Learning Soft Actor-Critic algorithm against an Interior Point Method algorithm (IPOPT) and comment on the merits of each algorithm.

In quantitative finance, machine learning methods are essential for alpha generation. This study introduces a new approach that combines Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and neural networks, integrated with Black-Litterman portfolio optimization. During the COVID period (2019-2022), this dual-model approach achieved a 83% return with a Sharpe ratio of 0.77. It incorporates two risk models to enhance risk management, showing efficiency during volatile periods. The methodology was implemented on the QuantConnect platform, which was chosen for its robust framework and experimental reproducibility. The system, which predicts future price movements, includes a three-year warm-up to ensure proper algorithm function. It targets highly liquid, large-cap energy stocks to ensure stable and predictable performance while also considering broker payments. The dual-model alpha system utilizes log returns to select the optimal state based on the historical performance. It combines state predictions with neural network outputs, which are based on historical data, to generate trading signals. This study examined the architecture of the trading system, data pre-processing, training, and performance. The full code and backtesting data are available under the QuantConnect terms.

Scaling laws offer valuable insights into the design of time series foundation models (TSFMs). However, previous research has largely focused on the scaling laws of TSFMs for in-distribution (ID) data, leaving their out-of-distribution (OOD) scaling behavior and the influence of model architectures less explored. In this work, we examine two common TSFM architectures, encoder-only and decoder-only Transformers, and investigate their scaling behavior on both ID and OOD data. These models are trained and evaluated across varying parameter counts, compute budgets, and dataset sizes. Our experiments reveal that the log-likelihood loss of TSFMs exhibits similar scaling behavior in both OOD and ID settings. We further compare the scaling properties across different architectures, incorporating two state-of-the-art TSFMs as case studies, showing that model architecture plays a significant role in scaling. The encoder-only Transformers demonstrate better scalability than the decoder-only Transformers, while the architectural enhancements in the two advanced TSFMs primarily improve ID performance but reduce OOD scalability. While scaling up TSFMs is expected to drive performance breakthroughs, the lack of a comprehensive understanding of TSFM scaling laws has hindered the development of a robust framework to guide model scaling. We fill this gap in this work by synthesizing our findings and providing practical guidelines for designing and scaling larger TSFMs with enhanced model capabilities.

The fundamental theorem behind financial markets is that stock prices are intrinsically complex and stochastic. One of the complexities is the volatility associated with stock prices. Volatility is a tendency for prices to change unexpectedly [1]. Price volatility is often detrimental to the return economics, and thus, investors should factor it in whenever making investment decisions, choices, and temporal or permanent moves. It is, therefore, crucial to make necessary and regular short and long-term stock price volatility forecasts for the safety and economics of investors returns. These forecasts should be accurate and not misleading. Different models and methods, such as ARCH GARCH models, have been intuitively implemented to make such forecasts. However, such traditional means fail to capture the short-term volatility forecasts effectively. This paper, therefore, investigates and implements a combination of numeric and probabilistic models for short-term volatility and return forecasting for high-frequency trades. The essence is that one-day-ahead volatility forecasts were made with Gaussian Processes (GPs) applied to the outputs of a Numerical market prediction (NMP) model. Firstly, the stock price data from NMP was corrected by a GP. Since it is not easy to set price limits in a market due to its free nature and randomness, a Censored GP was used to model the relationship between the corrected stock prices and returns. Forecasting errors were evaluated using the implied and estimated data.

Mobile devices such as smartphones and autonomous vehicles increasingly rely on deep neural networks (DNNs) to execute complex inference tasks such as image classification and speech recognition, among others. However, continuously executing the entire DNN on mobile devices can quickly deplete their battery. Although task offloading to cloud/edge servers may decrease the mobile device's computational burden, erratic patterns in channel quality, network, and edge server load can lead to a significant delay in task execution. Recently, approaches based on split computing (SC) have been proposed, where the DNN is split into a head and a tail model, executed respectively on the mobile device and on the edge server. Ultimately, this may reduce bandwidth usage as well as energy consumption. Another approach, called early exiting (EE), trains models to embed multiple "exits" earlier in the architecture, each providing increasingly higher target accuracy. Therefore, the trade-off between accuracy and delay can be tuned according to the current conditions or application demands. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive survey of the state of the art in SC and EE strategies by presenting a comparison of the most relevant approaches. We conclude the paper by providing a set of compelling research challenges.

Volatility clustering is a crucial property that has a substantial impact on stock market patterns. Nonetheless, developing robust models for accurately predicting future stock price volatility is a difficult research topic. For predicting the volatility of three equities listed on India's national stock market (NSE), we propose multiple volatility models depending on the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Glosten-Jagannathan-GARCH (GJR-GARCH), Exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH), and LSTM framework. Sector-wise stocks have been chosen in our study. The sectors which have been considered are banking, information technology (IT), and pharma. yahoo finance has been used to obtain stock price data from Jan 2017 to Dec 2021. Among the pulled-out records, the data from Jan 2017 to Dec 2020 have been taken for training, and data from 2021 have been chosen for testing our models. The performance of predicting the volatility of stocks of three sectors has been evaluated by implementing three different types of GARCH models as well as by the LSTM model are compared. It has been observed the LSTM performed better in predicting volatility in pharma over banking and IT sectors. In tandem, it was also observed that E-GARCH performed better in the case of the banking sector and for IT and pharma, GJR-GARCH performed better.

In this paper, we develop a hybrid approach to forecasting the volatility and risk of financial instruments by combining common econometric GARCH time series models with deep learning neural networks. For the latter, we employ Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) networks, whereas four different specifications are used as the GARCH component: standard GARCH, EGARCH, GJR-GARCH and APARCH. Models are tested using daily logarithmic returns on the S&P 500 index as well as gold price Bitcoin prices, with the three assets representing quite distinct volatility dynamics. As the main volatility estimator, also underlying the target function of our hybrid models, we use the price-range-based Garman-Klass estimator, modified to incorporate the opening and closing prices. Volatility forecasts resulting from the hybrid models are employed to evaluate the assets' risk using the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) at two different tolerance levels of 5% and 1%. Gains from combining the GARCH and GRU approaches are discussed in the contexts of both the volatility and risk forecasts. In general, it can be concluded that the hybrid solutions produce more accurate point volatility forecasts, although it does not necessarily translate into superior VaR and ES forecasts.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

Time series analysis has witnessed the inspiring development from traditional autoregressive models, deep learning models, to recent Transformers and Large Language Models (LLMs). Efforts in leveraging vision models for time series analysis have also been made along the way but are less visible to the community due to the predominant research on sequence modeling in this domain. However, the discrepancy between continuous time series and the discrete token space of LLMs, and the challenges in explicitly modeling the correlations of variates in multivariate time series have shifted some research attentions to the equally successful Large Vision Models (LVMs) and Vision Language Models (VLMs). To fill the blank in the existing literature, this survey discusses the advantages of vision models over LLMs in time series analysis. It provides a comprehensive and in-depth overview of the existing methods, with dual views of detailed taxonomy that answer the key research questions including how to encode time series as images and how to model the imaged time series for various tasks. Additionally, we address the challenges in the pre- and post-processing steps involved in this framework and outline future directions to further advance time series analysis with vision models.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. Design of such predictive models requires choice of appropriate variables, right transformation methods of the variables, and tuning of the parameters of the models. In this work, we present a very robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction that consists of an agglomeration of statistical, machine learning and deep learning models. We use the daily stock price data, collected at five minutes interval of time, of a very well known company that is listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The granular data is aggregated into three slots in a day, and the aggregated data is used for building and training the forecasting models. We contend that the agglomerative approach of model building that uses a combination of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches, can very effectively learn from the volatile and random movement patterns in a stock price data. We build eight classification and eight regression models based on statistical and machine learning approaches. In addition to these models, a deep learning regression model using a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) network is also built. Extensive results have been presented on the performance of these models, and the results are critically analyzed.

Rule learning is critical to improving knowledge graph (KG) reasoning due to their ability to provide logical and interpretable explanations. Recently, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) with tail entity scoring achieve the state-of-the-art performance on KG reasoning. However, the theoretical understandings for these GNNs are either lacking or focusing on single-relational graphs, leaving what the kind of rules these GNNs can learn an open problem. We propose to fill the above gap in this paper. Specifically, GNNs with tail entity scoring are unified into a common framework. Then, we analyze their expressivity by formally describing the rule structures they can learn and theoretically demonstrating their superiority. These results further inspire us to propose a novel labeling strategy to learn more rules in KG reasoning. Experimental results are consistent with our theoretical findings and verify the effectiveness of our proposed method. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/LARS-research/Rule-learning-expressivity.

We study both stream-based and pool-based active learning with neural network approximations. A recent line of works proposed bandit-based approaches that transformed active learning into a bandit problem, achieving both theoretical and empirical success. However, the performance and computational costs of these methods may be susceptible to the number of classes, denoted as K, due to this transformation. Therefore, this paper seeks to answer the question: "How can we mitigate the adverse impacts of K while retaining the advantages of principled exploration and provable performance guarantees in active learning?" To tackle this challenge, we propose two algorithms based on the newly designed exploitation and exploration neural networks for stream-based and pool-based active learning. Subsequently, we provide theoretical performance guarantees for both algorithms in a non-parametric setting, demonstrating a slower error-growth rate concerning K for the proposed approaches. We use extensive experiments to evaluate the proposed algorithms, which consistently outperform state-of-the-art baselines.

Continuous-time event sequences play a vital role in real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, online shopping, social networks, and so on. To model such data, temporal point processes (TPPs) have emerged as the most natural and competitive models, making a significant impact in both academic and application communities. Despite the emergence of many powerful models in recent years, there hasn't been a central benchmark for these models and future research endeavors. This lack of standardization impedes researchers and practitioners from comparing methods and reproducing results, potentially slowing down progress in this field. In this paper, we present EasyTPP, the first central repository of research assets (e.g., data, models, evaluation programs, documentations) in the area of event sequence modeling. Our EasyTPP makes several unique contributions to this area: a unified interface of using existing datasets and adding new datasets; a wide range of evaluation programs that are easy to use and extend as well as facilitate reproducible research; implementations of popular neural TPPs, together with a rich library of modules by composing which one could quickly build complex models. All the data and implementation can be found at https://github.com/ant-research/EasyTemporalPointProcess. We will actively maintain this benchmark and welcome contributions from other researchers and practitioners. Our benchmark will help promote reproducible research in this field, thus accelerating research progress as well as making more significant real-world impacts.

As the open-weight AI landscape continues to proliferate-with model development, significant investment, and user interest-it becomes increasingly important to predict which models will ultimately drive innovation and shape AI ecosystems. Building on parallels with citation dynamics in scientific literature, we propose a framework to quantify how an open-weight model's influence evolves. Specifically, we adapt the model introduced by Wang et al. for scientific citations, using three key parameters-immediacy, longevity, and relative fitness-to track the cumulative number of fine-tuned models of an open-weight model. Our findings reveal that this citation-style approach can effectively capture the diverse trajectories of open-weight model adoption, with most models fitting well and outliers indicating unique patterns or abrupt jumps in usage.

Without writing a single line of code by a human, an example Monte Carlo simulation based application for stochastic dependence modeling with copulas is developed using a state-of-the-art large language model (LLM) fine-tuned for conversations. This includes interaction with ChatGPT in natural language and using mathematical formalism, which, under careful supervision by a human-expert, led to producing a working code in MATLAB, Python and R for sampling from a given copula model, evaluation of the model's density, performing maximum likelihood estimation, optimizing the code for parallel computing for CPUs as well as for GPUs, and visualization of the computed results. In contrast to other emerging studies that assess the accuracy of LLMs like ChatGPT on tasks from a selected area, this work rather investigates ways how to achieve a successful solution of a standard statistical task in a collaboration of a human-expert and artificial intelligence (AI). Particularly, through careful prompt engineering, we separate successful solutions generated by ChatGPT from unsuccessful ones, resulting in a comprehensive list of related pros and cons. It is demonstrated that if the typical pitfalls are avoided, we can substantially benefit from collaborating with an AI partner. For example, we show that if ChatGPT is not able to provide a correct solution due to a lack of or incorrect knowledge, the human-expert can feed it with the correct knowledge, e.g., in the form of mathematical theorems and formulas, and make it to apply the gained knowledge in order to provide a solution that is correct. Such ability presents an attractive opportunity to achieve a programmed solution even for users with rather limited knowledge of programming techniques.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Language models and specialized table embedding models have recently demonstrated strong performance on many tasks over tabular data. Researchers and practitioners are keen to leverage these models in many new application contexts; but limited understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of these models, and the table representations they generate, makes the process of finding a suitable model for a given task reliant on trial and error. There is an urgent need to gain a comprehensive understanding of these models to minimize inefficiency and failures in downstream usage. To address this need, we propose Observatory, a formal framework to systematically analyze embedding representations of relational tables. Motivated both by invariants of the relational data model and by statistical considerations regarding data distributions, we define eight primitive properties, and corresponding measures to quantitatively characterize table embeddings for these properties. Based on these properties, we define an extensible framework to evaluate language and table embedding models. We collect and synthesize a suite of datasets and use Observatory to analyze nine such models. Our analysis provides insights into the strengths and weaknesses of learned representations over tables. We find, for example, that some models are sensitive to table structure such as column order, that functional dependencies are rarely reflected in embeddings, and that specialized table embedding models have relatively lower sample fidelity. Such insights help researchers and practitioners better anticipate model behaviors and select appropriate models for their downstream tasks, while guiding researchers in the development of new models.

It is almost always easier to find an accurate-but-complex model than an accurate-yet-simple model. Finding optimal, sparse, accurate models of various forms (linear models with integer coefficients, decision sets, rule lists, decision trees) is generally NP-hard. We often do not know whether the search for a simpler model will be worthwhile, and thus we do not go to the trouble of searching for one. In this work, we ask an important practical question: can accurate-yet-simple models be proven to exist, or shown likely to exist, before explicitly searching for them? We hypothesize that there is an important reason that simple-yet-accurate models often do exist. This hypothesis is that the size of the Rashomon set is often large, where the Rashomon set is the set of almost-equally-accurate models from a function class. If the Rashomon set is large, it contains numerous accurate models, and perhaps at least one of them is the simple model we desire. In this work, we formally present the Rashomon ratio as a new gauge of simplicity for a learning problem, depending on a function class and a data set. The Rashomon ratio is the ratio of the volume of the set of accurate models to the volume of the hypothesis space, and it is different from standard complexity measures from statistical learning theory. Insight from studying the Rashomon ratio provides an easy way to check whether a simpler model might exist for a problem before finding it, namely whether several different machine learning methods achieve similar performance on the data. In that sense, the Rashomon ratio is a powerful tool for understanding why and when an accurate-yet-simple model might exist. If, as we hypothesize in this work, many real-world data sets admit large Rashomon sets, the implications are vast: it means that simple or interpretable models may often be used for high-stakes decisions without losing accuracy.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become pivotal in advancing the field of artificial intelligence, yet their immense sizes pose significant challenges for both fine-tuning and deployment. Current post-training pruning methods, while reducing the sizes of LLMs, often fail to maintain their original performance. To address these challenges, this paper introduces SPP, a Sparsity-Preserved Parameter-efficient fine-tuning method. Different from existing post-training pruning approaches that struggle with performance retention, SPP proposes to employ lightweight learnable column and row matrices to optimize sparse LLM weights, keeping the structure and sparsity of pruned pre-trained models intact. By element-wise multiplication and residual addition, SPP ensures the consistency of model sparsity pattern and ratio during both training and weight-merging processes. We demonstrate the effectiveness of SPP by applying it to the LLaMA and LLaMA-2 model families with recent post-training pruning methods. Our results show that SPP significantly enhances the performance of models with different sparsity patterns (i.e. unstructured and N:M sparsity), especially for those with high sparsity ratios (e.g. 75%), making it a promising solution for the efficient fine-tuning of sparse LLMs. Code will be made available at https://github.com/Lucky-Lance/SPP.

We introduce a new family of physics-inspired generative models termed PFGM++ that unifies diffusion models and Poisson Flow Generative Models (PFGM). These models realize generative trajectories for N dimensional data by embedding paths in N{+}D dimensional space while still controlling the progression with a simple scalar norm of the D additional variables. The new models reduce to PFGM when D{=}1 and to diffusion models when D{to}infty. The flexibility of choosing D allows us to trade off robustness against rigidity as increasing D results in more concentrated coupling between the data and the additional variable norms. We dispense with the biased large batch field targets used in PFGM and instead provide an unbiased perturbation-based objective similar to diffusion models. To explore different choices of D, we provide a direct alignment method for transferring well-tuned hyperparameters from diffusion models (D{to} infty) to any finite D values. Our experiments show that models with finite D can be superior to previous state-of-the-art diffusion models on CIFAR-10/FFHQ 64{times}64 datasets, with FID scores of 1.91/2.43 when D{=}2048/128. In class-conditional setting, D{=}2048 yields current state-of-the-art FID of 1.74 on CIFAR-10. In addition, we demonstrate that models with smaller D exhibit improved robustness against modeling errors. Code is available at https://github.com/Newbeeer/pfgmpp

A data-driven model (DDM) suitable for regional weather forecasting applications is presented. The model extends the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System by introducing a stretched-grid architecture that dedicates higher resolution over a regional area of interest and maintains a lower resolution elsewhere on the globe. The model is based on graph neural networks, which naturally affords arbitrary multi-resolution grid configurations. The model is applied to short-range weather prediction for the Nordics, producing forecasts at 2.5 km spatial and 6 h temporal resolution. The model is pre-trained on 43 years of global ERA5 data at 31 km resolution and is further refined using 3.3 years of 2.5 km resolution operational analyses from the MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS). The performance of the model is evaluated using surface observations from measurement stations across Norway and is compared to short-range weather forecasts from MEPS. The DDM outperforms both the control run and the ensemble mean of MEPS for 2 m temperature. The model also produces competitive precipitation and wind speed forecasts, but is shown to underestimate extreme events.

The ubiquity of large-scale Pre-Trained Models (PTMs) is on the rise, sparking interest in model hubs, and dedicated platforms for hosting PTMs. Despite this trend, a comprehensive exploration of the challenges that users encounter and how the community leverages PTMs remains lacking. To address this gap, we conducted an extensive mixed-methods empirical study by focusing on discussion forums and the model hub of HuggingFace, the largest public model hub. Based on our qualitative analysis, we present a taxonomy of the challenges and benefits associated with PTM reuse within this community. We then conduct a quantitative study to track model-type trends and model documentation evolution over time. Our findings highlight prevalent challenges such as limited guidance for beginner users, struggles with model output comprehensibility in training or inference, and a lack of model understanding. We also identified interesting trends among models where some models maintain high upload rates despite a decline in topics related to them. Additionally, we found that despite the introduction of model documentation tools, its quantity has not increased over time, leading to difficulties in model comprehension and selection among users. Our study sheds light on new challenges in reusing PTMs that were not reported before and we provide recommendations for various stakeholders involved in PTM reuse.

Large Language Models (LLMs) represent a significant stride toward Artificial General Intelligence. As scaling laws underscore the potential of increasing model sizes, the academic community has intensified its investigations into LLMs with capacities exceeding 50 billion parameters. This technical report builds on our prior work with Tele-FLM (also known as FLM-2), a publicly available 52-billion-parameter model. We delve into two primary areas: we first discuss our observation of Supervised Fine-tuning (SFT) on Tele-FLM-52B, which supports the "less is more" approach for SFT data construction; second, we demonstrate our experiments and analyses on the best practices for progressively growing a model from 52 billion to 102 billion, and subsequently to 1 trillion parameters. We will open-source a 1T model checkpoint, namely Tele-FLM-1T, to advance further training and research.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

This study presents German FinBERT, a novel pre-trained German language model tailored for financial textual data. The model is trained through a comprehensive pre-training process, leveraging a substantial corpus comprising financial reports, ad-hoc announcements and news related to German companies. The corpus size is comparable to the data sets commonly used for training standard BERT models. I evaluate the performance of German FinBERT on downstream tasks, specifically sentiment prediction, topic recognition and question answering against generic German language models. My results demonstrate improved performance on finance-specific data, indicating the efficacy of German FinBERT in capturing domain-specific nuances. The presented findings suggest that German FinBERT holds promise as a valuable tool for financial text analysis, potentially benefiting various applications in the financial domain.

Ranking model plays an essential role in e-commerce search and recommendation. An effective ranking model should give a personalized ranking list for each user according to the user preference. Existing algorithms usually extract a user representation vector from the user behavior sequence, then feed the vector into a feed-forward network (FFN) together with other features for feature interactions, and finally produce a personalized ranking score. Despite tremendous progress in the past, there is still room for improvement. Firstly, the personalized patterns of feature interactions for different users are not explicitly modeled. Secondly, most of existing algorithms have poor personalized ranking results for long-tail users with few historical behaviors due to the data sparsity. To overcome the two challenges, we propose Attention Weighted Mixture of Experts (AW-MoE) with contrastive learning for personalized ranking. Firstly, AW-MoE leverages the MoE framework to capture personalized feature interactions for different users. To model the user preference, the user behavior sequence is simultaneously fed into expert networks and the gate network. Within the gate network, one gate unit and one activation unit are designed to adaptively learn the fine-grained activation vector for experts using an attention mechanism. Secondly, a random masking strategy is applied to the user behavior sequence to simulate long-tail users, and an auxiliary contrastive loss is imposed to the output of the gate network to improve the model generalization for these users. This is validated by a higher performance gain on the long-tail user test set. Experiment results on a JD real production dataset and a public dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of AW-MoE, which significantly outperforms state-of-art methods. Notably, AW-MoE has been successfully deployed in the JD e-commerce search engine, ...

Mixture of experts (MoE) are a popular class of statistical and machine learning models that have gained attention over the years due to their flexibility and efficiency. In this work, we consider Gaussian-gated localized MoE (GLoME) and block-diagonal covariance localized MoE (BLoME) regression models to present nonlinear relationships in heterogeneous data with potential hidden graph-structured interactions between high-dimensional predictors. These models pose difficult statistical estimation and model selection questions, both from a computational and theoretical perspective. This paper is devoted to the study of the problem of model selection among a collection of GLoME or BLoME models characterized by the number of mixture components, the complexity of Gaussian mean experts, and the hidden block-diagonal structures of the covariance matrices, in a penalized maximum likelihood estimation framework. In particular, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds that take the form of weak oracle inequalities, provided that lower bounds for the penalties hold. The good empirical behavior of our models is then demonstrated on synthetic and real datasets.

Integer sequences are of central importance to the modeling of concepts admitting complete finitary descriptions. We introduce a novel view on the learning of such concepts and lay down a set of benchmarking tasks aimed at conceptual understanding by machine learning models. These tasks indirectly assess model ability to abstract, and challenge them to reason both interpolatively and extrapolatively from the knowledge gained by observing representative examples. To further aid research in knowledge representation and reasoning, we present FACT, the Finitary Abstraction Comprehension Toolkit. The toolkit surrounds a large dataset of integer sequences comprising both organic and synthetic entries, a library for data pre-processing and generation, a set of model performance evaluation tools, and a collection of baseline model implementations, enabling the making of the future advancements with ease.

For a long-time, researchers have been developing a reliable and accurate predictive model for stock price prediction. According to the literature, if predictive models are correctly designed and refined, they can painstakingly and faithfully estimate future stock values. This paper demonstrates a set of time series, econometric, and various learning-based models for stock price prediction. The data of Infosys, ICICI, and SUN PHARMA from the period of January 2004 to December 2019 was used here for training and testing the models to know which model performs best in which sector. One time series model (Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing), one econometric model (ARIMA), two machine Learning models (Random Forest and MARS), and two deep learning-based models (simple RNN and LSTM) have been included in this paper. MARS has been proved to be the best performing machine learning model, while LSTM has proved to be the best performing deep learning model. But overall, for all three sectors - IT (on Infosys data), Banking (on ICICI data), and Health (on SUN PHARMA data), MARS has proved to be the best performing model in sales forecasting.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

We analyze a family of large language models in such a lightweight manner that can be done on a single GPU. Specifically, we focus on the OPT family of models ranging from 125m to 66b parameters and rely only on whether an FFN neuron is activated or not. First, we find that the early part of the network is sparse and represents many discrete features. Here, many neurons (more than 70% in some layers of the 66b model) are "dead", i.e. they never activate on a large collection of diverse data. At the same time, many of the alive neurons are reserved for discrete features and act as token and n-gram detectors. Interestingly, their corresponding FFN updates not only promote next token candidates as could be expected, but also explicitly focus on removing the information about triggering them tokens, i.e., current input. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first example of mechanisms specialized at removing (rather than adding) information from the residual stream. With scale, models become more sparse in a sense that they have more dead neurons and token detectors. Finally, some neurons are positional: them being activated or not depends largely (or solely) on position and less so (or not at all) on textual data. We find that smaller models have sets of neurons acting as position range indicators while larger models operate in a less explicit manner.

We present a conceptual framework, datamodeling, for analyzing the behavior of a model class in terms of the training data. For any fixed "target" example x, training set S, and learning algorithm, a datamodel is a parameterized function 2^S to R that for any subset of S' subset S -- using only information about which examples of S are contained in S' -- predicts the outcome of training a model on S' and evaluating on x. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying process being approximated (e.g., end-to-end training and evaluation of deep neural networks), we show that even simple linear datamodels can successfully predict model outputs. We then demonstrate that datamodels give rise to a variety of applications, such as: accurately predicting the effect of dataset counterfactuals; identifying brittle predictions; finding semantically similar examples; quantifying train-test leakage; and embedding data into a well-behaved and feature-rich representation space. Data for this paper (including pre-computed datamodels as well as raw predictions from four million trained deep neural networks) is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/datamodels-data .

Previous works on Treatment Effect Estimation (TEE) are not in widespread use because they are predominantly theoretical, where strong parametric assumptions are made but untractable for practical application. Recent work uses multilayer perceptron (MLP) for modeling casual relationships, however, MLPs lag far behind recent advances in ML methodology, which limits their applicability and generalizability. To extend beyond the single domain formulation and towards more realistic learning scenarios, we explore model design spaces beyond MLPs, i.e., transformer backbones, which provide flexibility where attention layers govern interactions among treatments and covariates to exploit structural similarities of potential outcomes for confounding control. Through careful model design, Transformers as Treatment Effect Estimators (TransTEE) is proposed. We show empirically that TransTEE can: (1) serve as a general purpose treatment effect estimator that significantly outperforms competitive baselines in a variety of challenging TEE problems (e.g., discrete, continuous, structured, or dosage-associated treatments) and is applicable to both when covariates are tabular and when they consist of structural data (e.g., texts, graphs); (2) yield multiple advantages: compatibility with propensity score modeling, parameter efficiency, robustness to continuous treatment value distribution shifts, explainable in covariate adjustment, and real-world utility in auditing pre-trained language models

Recognition problems in long-tailed data, in which the sample size per class is heavily skewed, have gained importance because the distribution of the sample size per class in a dataset is generally exponential unless the sample size is intentionally adjusted. Various methods have been devised to address these problems. Recently, weight balancing, which combines well-known classical regularization techniques with two-stage training, has been proposed. Despite its simplicity, it is known for its high performance compared with existing methods devised in various ways. However, there is a lack of understanding as to why this method is effective for long-tailed data. In this study, we analyze weight balancing by focusing on neural collapse and the cone effect at each training stage and found that it can be decomposed into an increase in Fisher's discriminant ratio of the feature extractor caused by weight decay and cross entropy loss and implicit logit adjustment caused by weight decay and class-balanced loss. Our analysis enables the training method to be further simplified by reducing the number of training stages to one while increasing accuracy.

We develop a framework for non-asymptotic analysis of deterministic samplers used for diffusion generative modeling. Several recent works have analyzed stochastic samplers using tools like Girsanov's theorem and a chain rule variant of the interpolation argument. Unfortunately, these techniques give vacuous bounds when applied to deterministic samplers. We give a new operational interpretation for deterministic sampling by showing that one step along the probability flow ODE can be expressed as two steps: 1) a restoration step that runs gradient ascent on the conditional log-likelihood at some infinitesimally previous time, and 2) a degradation step that runs the forward process using noise pointing back towards the current iterate. This perspective allows us to extend denoising diffusion implicit models to general, non-linear forward processes. We then develop the first polynomial convergence bounds for these samplers under mild conditions on the data distribution.

A variety of recent papers discuss the application of Shapley values, a concept for explaining coalitional games, for feature attribution in machine learning. However, the correct way to connect a machine learning model to a coalitional game has been a source of controversy. The two main approaches that have been proposed differ in the way that they condition on known features, using either (1) an interventional or (2) an observational conditional expectation. While previous work has argued that one of the two approaches is preferable in general, we argue that the choice is application dependent. Furthermore, we argue that the choice comes down to whether it is desirable to be true to the model or true to the data. We use linear models to investigate this choice. After deriving an efficient method for calculating observational conditional expectation Shapley values for linear models, we investigate how correlation in simulated data impacts the convergence of observational conditional expectation Shapley values. Finally, we present two real data examples that we consider to be representative of possible use cases for feature attribution -- (1) credit risk modeling and (2) biological discovery. We show how a different choice of value function performs better in each scenario, and how possible attributions are impacted by modeling choices.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

In this paper, we study the problem of (finite horizon tabular) Markov decision processes (MDPs) with heavy-tailed rewards under the constraint of differential privacy (DP). Compared with the previous studies for private reinforcement learning that typically assume rewards are sampled from some bounded or sub-Gaussian distributions to ensure DP, we consider the setting where reward distributions have only finite (1+v)-th moments with some v in (0,1]. By resorting to robust mean estimators for rewards, we first propose two frameworks for heavy-tailed MDPs, i.e., one is for value iteration and another is for policy optimization. Under each framework, we consider both joint differential privacy (JDP) and local differential privacy (LDP) models. Based on our frameworks, we provide regret upper bounds for both JDP and LDP cases and show that the moment of distribution and privacy budget both have significant impacts on regrets. Finally, we establish a lower bound of regret minimization for heavy-tailed MDPs in JDP model by reducing it to the instance-independent lower bound of heavy-tailed multi-armed bandits in DP model. We also show the lower bound for the problem in LDP by adopting some private minimax methods. Our results reveal that there are fundamental differences between the problem of private RL with sub-Gaussian and that with heavy-tailed rewards.

For many low-resource languages, the only available language models are large multilingual models trained on many languages simultaneously. However, using FLORES perplexity as a metric, we find that these models perform worse than bigrams for many languages (e.g. 24% of languages in XGLM 4.5B; 43% in BLOOM 7.1B). To facilitate research that focuses on low-resource languages, we pre-train and release Goldfish, a suite of monolingual autoregressive Transformer language models up to 125M parameters for 350 languages. The Goldfish reach lower FLORES perplexities than BLOOM, XGLM, and MaLA-500 on 98 of 204 FLORES languages, despite each Goldfish model being over 10x smaller. However, the Goldfish significantly underperform larger multilingual models on reasoning benchmarks, suggesting that for low-resource languages, multilinguality primarily improves general reasoning abilities rather than basic text generation. We release models trained on 5MB (350 languages), 10MB (288 languages), 100MB (166 languages), and 1GB (83 languages) of text data where available. The Goldfish models are available as baselines, fine-tuning sources, or augmentations to existing models in low-resource NLP research, and they are further useful for crosslinguistic studies requiring maximally comparable models across languages.

Temperature scaling is a popular technique for tuning the sharpness of a model distribution. It is used extensively for sampling likely generations and calibrating model uncertainty, and even features as a controllable parameter to many large language models in deployment. However, autoregressive models rely on myopic temperature scaling that greedily optimizes the next token. To address this, we propose Long Horizon Temperature Scaling (LHTS), a novel approach for sampling from temperature-scaled joint distributions. LHTS is compatible with all likelihood-based models, and optimizes for the long-horizon likelihood of samples. We derive a temperature-dependent LHTS objective, and show that fine-tuning a model on a range of temperatures produces a single model capable of generation with a controllable long-horizon temperature parameter. We experiment with LHTS on image diffusion models and character/language autoregressive models, demonstrating advantages over myopic temperature scaling in likelihood and sample quality, and showing improvements in accuracy on a multiple choice analogy task by 10%.

Neural scaling laws (NSL) refer to the phenomenon where model performance improves with scale. Sharma & Kaplan analyzed NSL using approximation theory and predict that MSE losses decay as N^{-alpha}, alpha=4/d, where N is the number of model parameters, and d is the intrinsic input dimension. Although their theory works well for some cases (e.g., ReLU networks), we surprisingly find that a simple 1D problem y=x^2 manifests a different scaling law (alpha=1) from their predictions (alpha=4). We opened the neural networks and found that the new scaling law originates from lottery ticket ensembling: a wider network on average has more "lottery tickets", which are ensembled to reduce the variance of outputs. We support the ensembling mechanism by mechanistically interpreting single neural networks, as well as studying them statistically. We attribute the N^{-1} scaling law to the "central limit theorem" of lottery tickets. Finally, we discuss its potential implications for large language models and statistical physics-type theories of learning.

The asymptotically precise estimation of the generalization of kernel methods has recently received attention due to the parallels between neural networks and their associated kernels. However, prior works derive such estimates for training by kernel ridge regression (KRR), whereas neural networks are typically trained with gradient descent (GD). In the present work, we consider the training of kernels with a family of spectral algorithms specified by profile h(lambda), and including KRR and GD as special cases. Then, we derive the generalization error as a functional of learning profile h(lambda) for two data models: high-dimensional Gaussian and low-dimensional translation-invariant model. Under power-law assumptions on the spectrum of the kernel and target, we use our framework to (i) give full loss asymptotics for both noisy and noiseless observations (ii) show that the loss localizes on certain spectral scales, giving a new perspective on the KRR saturation phenomenon (iii) conjecture, and demonstrate for the considered data models, the universality of the loss w.r.t. non-spectral details of the problem, but only in case of noisy observation.

Linear time-invariant state space models (SSM) are a classical model from engineering and statistics, that have recently been shown to be very promising in machine learning through the Structured State Space sequence model (S4). A core component of S4 involves initializing the SSM state matrix to a particular matrix called a HiPPO matrix, which was empirically important for S4's ability to handle long sequences. However, the specific matrix that S4 uses was actually derived in previous work for a particular time-varying dynamical system, and the use of this matrix as a time-invariant SSM had no known mathematical interpretation. Consequently, the theoretical mechanism by which S4 models long-range dependencies actually remains unexplained. We derive a more general and intuitive formulation of the HiPPO framework, which provides a simple mathematical interpretation of S4 as a decomposition onto exponentially-warped Legendre polynomials, explaining its ability to capture long dependencies. Our generalization introduces a theoretically rich class of SSMs that also lets us derive more intuitive S4 variants for other bases such as the Fourier basis, and explains other aspects of training S4, such as how to initialize the important timescale parameter. These insights improve S4's performance to 86% on the Long Range Arena benchmark, with 96% on the most difficult Path-X task.

Non-linear state-space models, also known as general hidden Markov models, are ubiquitous in statistical machine learning, being the most classical generative models for serial data and sequences in general. The particle-based, rapid incremental smoother PaRIS is a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) technique allowing for efficient online approximation of expectations of additive functionals under the smoothing distribution in these models. Such expectations appear naturally in several learning contexts, such as likelihood estimation (MLE) and Markov score climbing (MSC). PARIS has linear computational complexity, limited memory requirements and comes with non-asymptotic bounds, convergence results and stability guarantees. Still, being based on self-normalised importance sampling, the PaRIS estimator is biased. Our first contribution is to design a novel additive smoothing algorithm, the Parisian particle Gibbs PPG sampler, which can be viewed as a PaRIS algorithm driven by conditional SMC moves, resulting in bias-reduced estimates of the targeted quantities. We substantiate the PPG algorithm with theoretical results, including new bounds on bias and variance as well as deviation inequalities. Our second contribution is to apply PPG in a learning framework, covering MLE and MSC as special examples. In this context, we establish, under standard assumptions, non-asymptotic bounds highlighting the value of bias reduction and the implicit Rao--Blackwellization of PPG. These are the first non-asymptotic results of this kind in this setting. We illustrate our theoretical results with numerical experiments supporting our claims.

This study develops FinText, a financial word embedding compiled from 15 years of business news archives. The results show that FinText produces substantially more accurate results than general word embeddings based on the gold-standard financial benchmark we introduced. In contrast to well-known econometric models, and over the sample period from 27 July 2007 to 27 January 2022 for 23 NASDAQ stocks, using stock-related news, our simple natural language processing model supported by different word embeddings improves realised volatility forecasts on high volatility days. This improvement in realised volatility forecasting performance switches to normal volatility days when general hot news is used. By utilising SHAP, an Explainable AI method, we also identify and classify key phrases in stock-related and general hot news that moved volatility.

Despite a growing interest in diffusion-based language models, existing work has not shown that these models can attain nontrivial likelihoods on standard language modeling benchmarks. In this work, we take the first steps towards closing the likelihood gap between autoregressive and diffusion-based language models, with the goal of building and releasing a diffusion model which outperforms a small but widely-known autoregressive model. We pursue this goal through algorithmic improvements, scaling laws, and increased compute. On the algorithmic front, we introduce several methodological improvements for the maximum-likelihood training of diffusion language models. We then study scaling laws for our diffusion models and find compute-optimal training regimes which differ substantially from autoregressive models. Using our methods and scaling analysis, we train and release Plaid 1B, a large diffusion language model which outperforms GPT-2 124M in likelihood on benchmark datasets and generates fluent samples in unconditional and zero-shot control settings.

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling tasks across various domains. Prior works on time series diffusion models have primarily focused on developing conditional models tailored to specific forecasting or imputation tasks. In this work, we explore the potential of task-agnostic, unconditional diffusion models for several time series applications. We propose TSDiff, an unconditionally trained diffusion model for time series. Our proposed self-guidance mechanism enables conditioning TSDiff for downstream tasks during inference, without requiring auxiliary networks or altering the training procedure. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on three different time series tasks: forecasting, refinement, and synthetic data generation. First, we show that TSDiff is competitive with several task-specific conditional forecasting methods (predict). Second, we leverage the learned implicit probability density of TSDiff to iteratively refine the predictions of base forecasters with reduced computational overhead over reverse diffusion (refine). Notably, the generative performance of the model remains intact -- downstream forecasters trained on synthetic samples from TSDiff outperform forecasters that are trained on samples from other state-of-the-art generative time series models, occasionally even outperforming models trained on real data (synthesize).