Daily Papers

Access to external knowledge is essential for many natural language processing tasks, such as question answering and dialogue. Existing methods often rely on a parametric model that stores knowledge in its parameters, or use a retrieval-augmented model that has access to an external knowledge source. Parametric and retrieval-augmented models have complementary strengths in terms of computational efficiency and predictive accuracy. To combine the strength of both approaches, we propose the Efficient Memory-Augmented Transformer (EMAT) -- it encodes external knowledge into a key-value memory and exploits the fast maximum inner product search for memory querying. We also introduce pre-training tasks that allow EMAT to encode informative key-value representations, and to learn an implicit strategy to integrate multiple memory slots into the transformer. Experiments on various knowledge-intensive tasks such as question answering and dialogue datasets show that, simply augmenting parametric models (T5-base) using our method produces more accurate results (e.g., 25.8 -> 44.3 EM on NQ) while retaining a high throughput (e.g., 1000 queries/s on NQ). Compared to retrieval-augmented models, EMAT runs substantially faster across the board and produces more accurate results on WoW and ELI5. Our code and datasets are available at https://github. com/uclnlp/EMAT.

In deep learning, models typically reuse the same parameters for all inputs. Mixture of Experts (MoE) defies this and instead selects different parameters for each incoming example. The result is a sparsely-activated model -- with outrageous numbers of parameters -- but a constant computational cost. However, despite several notable successes of MoE, widespread adoption has been hindered by complexity, communication costs and training instability -- we address these with the Switch Transformer. We simplify the MoE routing algorithm and design intuitive improved models with reduced communication and computational costs. Our proposed training techniques help wrangle the instabilities and we show large sparse models may be trained, for the first time, with lower precision (bfloat16) formats. We design models based off T5-Base and T5-Large to obtain up to 7x increases in pre-training speed with the same computational resources. These improvements extend into multilingual settings where we measure gains over the mT5-Base version across all 101 languages. Finally, we advance the current scale of language models by pre-training up to trillion parameter models on the "Colossal Clean Crawled Corpus" and achieve a 4x speedup over the T5-XXL model.

Asymmetrical distance structures (quasimetrics) are ubiquitous in our lives and are gaining more attention in machine learning applications. Imposing such quasimetric structures in model representations has been shown to improve many tasks, including reinforcement learning (RL) and causal relation learning. In this work, we present four desirable properties in such quasimetric models, and show how prior works fail at them. We propose Interval Quasimetric Embedding (IQE), which is designed to satisfy all four criteria. On three quasimetric learning experiments, IQEs show strong approximation and generalization abilities, leading to better performance and improved efficiency over prior methods. Project Page: https://www.tongzhouwang.info/interval_quasimetric_embedding Quasimetric Learning Code Package: https://www.github.com/quasimetric-learning/torch-quasimetric

The surprising ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to perform well on complex reasoning with only few-shot chain-of-thought prompts is believed to emerge only in very large-scale models (100+ billion parameters). We show that such abilities can, in fact, be distilled down from GPT-3.5 (ge 175B) to T5 variants (le 11B). We propose model specialization, to specialize the model's ability towards a target task. The hypothesis is that large models (commonly viewed as larger than 100B) have strong modeling power, but are spread on a large spectrum of tasks. Small models (commonly viewed as smaller than 10B) have limited model capacity, but if we concentrate their capacity on a specific target task, the model can achieve a decent improved performance. We use multi-step math reasoning as our testbed because it is a very typical emergent ability. We show two important aspects of model abilities: (1). there exists a very complex balance/ tradeoff between language models' multi-dimensional abilities; (2). by paying the price of decreased generic ability, we can clearly lift up the scaling curve of models smaller than 10B towards a specialized multi-step math reasoning ability. We further give comprehensive discussions about important design choices for better generalization, including the tuning data format, the start model checkpoint, and a new model selection method. We hope our practice and discoveries can serve as an important attempt towards specialized smaller models in the new research paradigm set by LLMs.

The derivation of mathematical results in specialised fields using Large Language Models (LLMs) is an emerging research direction that can help identify models' limitations, and potentially support mathematical discovery. In this paper, we leverage a symbolic engine to generate derivations of equations at scale, and investigate the capabilities of LLMs when deriving goal equations from premises. Specifically, we employ in-context learning for GPT and fine-tune a range of T5 models to compare the robustness and generalisation of pre-training strategies to specialised models. Empirical results show that fine-tuned FLAN-T5-large (MathT5) outperforms GPT models on all static and out-of-distribution test sets in terms of absolute performance. However, an in-depth analysis reveals that the fine-tuned models are more sensitive to perturbations involving unseen symbols and (to a lesser extent) changes to equation structure. In addition, we analyse 1.7K equations and over 200 derivations to highlight common reasoning errors such as the inclusion of incorrect, irrelevant, and redundant equations, along with the tendency to skip derivation steps. Finally, we explore the suitability of existing metrics for evaluating mathematical derivations finding evidence that, while they capture general properties such as sensitivity to perturbations, they fail to highlight fine-grained reasoning errors and essential differences between models. Overall, this work demonstrates that training models on synthetic data can improve their mathematical capabilities beyond larger architectures.

Linear structural equation models are multivariate statistical models encoded by mixed graphs. In particular, the set of covariance matrices for distributions belonging to a linear structural equation model for a fixed mixed graph G=(V, D,B) is parameterized by a rational function with parameters for each vertex and edge in G. This rational parametrization naturally allows for the study of these models from an algebraic and combinatorial point of view. Indeed, this point of view has led to a collection of results in the literature, mainly focusing on questions related to identifiability and determining relationships between covariances (i.e., finding polynomials in the Gaussian vanishing ideal). So far, a large proportion of these results has focused on the case when D, the directed part of the mixed graph G, is acyclic. This is due to the fact that in the acyclic case, the parametrization becomes polynomial and there is a description of the entries of the covariance matrices in terms of a finite sum. We move beyond the acyclic case and give a closed form expression for the entries of the covariance matrices in terms of the one-connections in a graph obtained from D through some small operations. This closed form expression then allows us to show that if G is simple, then the parametrization map is generically finite-to-one. Finally, having a closed form expression for the covariance matrices allows for the development of an algorithm for systematically exploring possible polynomials in the Gaussian vanishing ideal.

Linear time-invariant state space models (SSM) are a classical model from engineering and statistics, that have recently been shown to be very promising in machine learning through the Structured State Space sequence model (S4). A core component of S4 involves initializing the SSM state matrix to a particular matrix called a HiPPO matrix, which was empirically important for S4's ability to handle long sequences. However, the specific matrix that S4 uses was actually derived in previous work for a particular time-varying dynamical system, and the use of this matrix as a time-invariant SSM had no known mathematical interpretation. Consequently, the theoretical mechanism by which S4 models long-range dependencies actually remains unexplained. We derive a more general and intuitive formulation of the HiPPO framework, which provides a simple mathematical interpretation of S4 as a decomposition onto exponentially-warped Legendre polynomials, explaining its ability to capture long dependencies. Our generalization introduces a theoretically rich class of SSMs that also lets us derive more intuitive S4 variants for other bases such as the Fourier basis, and explains other aspects of training S4, such as how to initialize the important timescale parameter. These insights improve S4's performance to 86% on the Long Range Arena benchmark, with 96% on the most difficult Path-X task.

Recent advancements in implicit 3D representations and generative models have markedly propelled the field of 3D object generation forward. However, it remains a significant challenge to accurately model geometries with defined sharp features under parametric controls, which is crucial in fields like industrial design and manufacturing. To bridge this gap, we introduce a framework that employs Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate text-driven 3D shapes, manipulating 3D software via program synthesis. We present 3D-PreMise, a dataset specifically tailored for 3D parametric modeling of industrial shapes, designed to explore state-of-the-art LLMs within our proposed pipeline. Our work reveals effective generation strategies and delves into the self-correction capabilities of LLMs using a visual interface. Our work highlights both the potential and limitations of LLMs in 3D parametric modeling for industrial applications.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

There remain many open questions pertaining to the scaling behaviour of Transformer architectures. These scaling decisions and findings can be critical, as training runs often come with an associated computational cost which have both financial and/or environmental impact. The goal of this paper is to present scaling insights from pretraining and finetuning Transformers. While Kaplan et al. presents a comprehensive study of the scaling behaviour of Transformer language models, the scope is only on the upstream (pretraining) loss. Therefore, it is still unclear if these set of findings transfer to downstream task within the context of the pretrain-finetune paradigm. The key findings of this paper are as follows: (1) we show that aside from only the model size, model shape matters for downstream fine-tuning, (2) scaling protocols operate differently at different compute regions, (3) widely adopted T5-base and T5-large sizes are Pareto-inefficient. To this end, we present improved scaling protocols whereby our redesigned models achieve similar downstream fine-tuning quality while having 50\% fewer parameters and training 40\% faster compared to the widely adopted T5-base model. We publicly release over 100 pretrained checkpoints of different T5 configurations to facilitate future research and analysis.

State space models (SSM) have recently been shown to be very effective as a deep learning layer as a promising alternative to sequence models such as RNNs, CNNs, or Transformers. The first version to show this potential was the S4 model, which is particularly effective on tasks involving long-range dependencies by using a prescribed state matrix called the HiPPO matrix. While this has an interpretable mathematical mechanism for modeling long dependencies, it introduces a custom representation and algorithm that can be difficult to implement. On the other hand, a recent variant of S4 called DSS showed that restricting the state matrix to be fully diagonal can still preserve the performance of the original model when using a specific initialization based on approximating S4's matrix. This work seeks to systematically understand how to parameterize and initialize such diagonal state space models. While it follows from classical results that almost all SSMs have an equivalent diagonal form, we show that the initialization is critical for performance. We explain why DSS works mathematically, by showing that the diagonal restriction of S4's matrix surprisingly recovers the same kernel in the limit of infinite state dimension. We also systematically describe various design choices in parameterizing and computing diagonal SSMs, and perform a controlled empirical study ablating the effects of these choices. Our final model S4D is a simple diagonal version of S4 whose kernel computation requires just 2 lines of code and performs comparably to S4 in almost all settings, with state-of-the-art results for image, audio, and medical time-series domains, and averaging 85\% on the Long Range Arena benchmark.

Models using structured state space sequence (S4) layers have achieved state-of-the-art performance on long-range sequence modeling tasks. An S4 layer combines linear state space models (SSMs), the HiPPO framework, and deep learning to achieve high performance. We build on the design of the S4 layer and introduce a new state space layer, the S5 layer. Whereas an S4 layer uses many independent single-input, single-output SSMs, the S5 layer uses one multi-input, multi-output SSM. We establish a connection between S5 and S4, and use this to develop the initialization and parameterization used by the S5 model. The result is a state space layer that can leverage efficient and widely implemented parallel scans, allowing S5 to match the computational efficiency of S4, while also achieving state-of-the-art performance on several long-range sequence modeling tasks. S5 averages 87.4% on the long range arena benchmark, and 98.5% on the most difficult Path-X task.

Recent work has identified simple empirical scaling laws for language models, linking compute budget, dataset size, model size, and autoregressive modeling loss. The validity of these simple power laws across orders of magnitude in model scale provides compelling evidence that larger models are also more capable models. However, scaling up models under the constraints of hardware and infrastructure is no easy feat, and rapidly becomes a hard and expensive engineering problem. We investigate ways to tentatively cheat scaling laws, and train larger models for cheaper. We emulate an increase in effective parameters, using efficient approximations: either by doping the models with frozen random parameters, or by using fast structured transforms in place of dense linear layers. We find that the scaling relationship between test loss and compute depends only on the actual number of trainable parameters; scaling laws cannot be deceived by spurious parameters.

This paper explores the effectiveness of model-generated signals in improving zero-shot generalization of text-to-text Transformers such as T5. We study various designs to pretrain T5 using an auxiliary model to construct more challenging token replacements for the main model to denoise. Key aspects under study include the decoding target, the location of the RTD head, and the masking pattern. Based on these studies, we develop a new model, METRO-T0, which is pretrained using the redesigned ELECTRA-Style pretraining strategies and then prompt-finetuned on a mixture of NLP tasks. METRO-T0 outperforms all similar-sized baselines on prompted NLP benchmarks, such as T0 Eval and MMLU, and rivals the state-of-the-art T0-11B model with only 8% of its parameters. Our analysis on model's neural activation and parameter sensitivity reveals that the effectiveness of METRO-T0 stems from more balanced contribution of parameters and better utilization of their capacity. The code and model checkpoints are available at https://github.com/gonglinyuan/metro_t0.

Scaling laws are typically fit using a family of models with a narrow range of frozen hyper-parameter choices. In this work we study scaling laws using a wide range of architecture and hyper-parameter choices, and highlight their impact on resulting prescriptions. As a primary artifact of our research, we release the Gemstones: the most comprehensive open-source scaling law dataset to date, consisting of over 4000 checkpoints from transformers with up to 2 billion parameters; these models have been trained with different learning rates, cooldown schedules, and architectural shapes. Our checkpoints enable more complex studies of scaling, such as a law that predicts language modeling performance as a function of model width and depth. By examining the various facets of our model suite, we find that the prescriptions of scaling laws can be highly sensitive to the experimental design process and the specific model checkpoints used during fitting. Code: https://github.com/mcleish7/gemstone-scaling-laws

State-space models (SSMs) have recently emerged as a framework for learning long-range sequence tasks. An example is the structured state-space sequence (S4) layer, which uses the diagonal-plus-low-rank structure of the HiPPO initialization framework. However, the complicated structure of the S4 layer poses challenges; and, in an effort to address these challenges, models such as S4D and S5 have considered a purely diagonal structure. This choice simplifies the implementation, improves computational efficiency, and allows channel communication. However, diagonalizing the HiPPO framework is itself an ill-posed problem. In this paper, we propose a general solution for this and related ill-posed diagonalization problems in machine learning. We introduce a generic, backward-stable "perturb-then-diagonalize" (PTD) methodology, which is based on the pseudospectral theory of non-normal operators, and which may be interpreted as the approximate diagonalization of the non-normal matrices defining SSMs. Based on this, we introduce the S4-PTD and S5-PTD models. Through theoretical analysis of the transfer functions of different initialization schemes, we demonstrate that the S4-PTD/S5-PTD initialization strongly converges to the HiPPO framework, while the S4D/S5 initialization only achieves weak convergences. As a result, our new models show resilience to Fourier-mode noise-perturbed inputs, a crucial property not achieved by the S4D/S5 models. In addition to improved robustness, our S5-PTD model averages 87.6% accuracy on the Long-Range Arena benchmark, demonstrating that the PTD methodology helps to improve the accuracy of deep learning models.

Training large neural language models on large datasets is resource- and time-intensive. These requirements create a barrier to entry, where those with fewer resources cannot build competitive models. This paper presents various techniques for making it possible to (a) train a large language model using resources that a modest research lab might have, and (b) train it in a reasonable amount of time. We provide concrete recommendations for practitioners, which we illustrate with a case study: a T5 model for Danish, the first for this language.

This paper introduces a public dataset of 1.4 million procedurally-generated bicycle designs represented parametrically, as JSON files, and as rasterized images. The dataset is created through the use of a rendering engine which harnesses the BikeCAD software to generate vector graphics from parametric designs. This rendering engine is discussed in the paper and also released publicly alongside the dataset. Though this dataset has numerous applications, a principal motivation is the need to train cross-modal predictive models between parametric and image-based design representations. For example, we demonstrate that a predictive model can be trained to accurately estimate Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (CLIP) embeddings from a parametric representation directly. This allows similarity relations to be established between parametric bicycle designs and text strings or reference images. Trained predictive models are also made public. The dataset joins the BIKED dataset family which includes thousands of mixed-representation human-designed bicycle models and several datasets quantifying design performance. The code and dataset can be found at: https://github.com/Lyleregenwetter/BIKED_multimodal/tree/main

As language models scale up, it becomes increasingly expensive to verify research ideas because conclusions on small models do not trivially transfer to large ones. A possible solution is to establish a generic system that directly predicts some metrics for large models solely based on the results and hyperparameters from small models. Existing methods based on scaling laws require hyperparameter search on the largest models, which is impractical with limited resources. We address this issue by presenting our discoveries indicating that Maximal Update parametrization (Mup) enables accurate fitting of scaling laws for hyperparameters close to common loss basins, without any search. Thus, different models can be directly compared on large scales with loss prediction even before the training starts. We propose a new paradigm as a first step towards reliable academic research for any model scale without heavy computation. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/cofe-ai/Mu-scaling.

Prototyping complex computer-aided design (CAD) models in modern softwares can be very time-consuming. This is due to the lack of intelligent systems that can quickly generate simpler intermediate parts. We propose Text2CAD, the first AI framework for generating text-to-parametric CAD models using designer-friendly instructions for all skill levels. Furthermore, we introduce a data annotation pipeline for generating text prompts based on natural language instructions for the DeepCAD dataset using Mistral and LLaVA-NeXT. The dataset contains sim170K models and sim660K text annotations, from abstract CAD descriptions (e.g., generate two concentric cylinders) to detailed specifications (e.g., draw two circles with center (x,y) and radius r_{1}, r_{2}, and extrude along the normal by d...). Within the Text2CAD framework, we propose an end-to-end transformer-based auto-regressive network to generate parametric CAD models from input texts. We evaluate the performance of our model through a mixture of metrics, including visual quality, parametric precision, and geometrical accuracy. Our proposed framework shows great potential in AI-aided design applications. Our source code and annotations will be publicly available.

Xmodel-2 is a 1.2-billion-parameter large language model designed specifically for reasoning tasks. Its architecture enables different model scales to share a unified set of hyperparameters, allowing for extensive experimentation on smaller models and seamless transfer of optimal configurations to larger models. To maximize training efficiency and stability, Xmodel-2 employs the WSD learning rate scheduler from MiniCPM. Pretrained on 1.5 trillion tokens from diverse sources, Xmodel-2 achieves state-of-the-art performance in complex reasoning and agent-based tasks, while maintaining low training costs. These results highlight the potential of efficient model design and training strategies in advancing reasoning capabilities. Model checkpoints and code are publicly available on GitHub at https://github.com/XiaoduoAILab/Xmodel-2

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly when considering exponential or non-parametric kernels. Although non-parametric kernels are an option, such models require large datasets. While exponential kernels are more data efficient and relevant for specific applications where events immediately trigger more events, they are ill-suited for applications where latencies need to be estimated, such as in neuroscience. This work aims to offer an efficient solution to TPP inference using general parametric kernels with finite support. The developed solution consists of a fast ell_2 gradient-based solver leveraging a discretized version of the events. After theoretically supporting the use of discretization, the statistical and computational efficiency of the novel approach is demonstrated through various numerical experiments. Finally, the method's effectiveness is evaluated by modeling the occurrence of stimuli-induced patterns from brain signals recorded with magnetoencephalography (MEG). Given the use of general parametric kernels, results show that the proposed approach leads to an improved estimation of pattern latency than the state-of-the-art.

We propose PROSE-FD, a zero-shot multimodal PDE foundational model for simultaneous prediction of heterogeneous two-dimensional physical systems related to distinct fluid dynamics settings. These systems include shallow water equations and the Navier-Stokes equations with incompressible and compressible flow, regular and complex geometries, and different buoyancy settings. This work presents a new transformer-based multi-operator learning approach that fuses symbolic information to perform operator-based data prediction, i.e. non-autoregressive. By incorporating multiple modalities in the inputs, the PDE foundation model builds in a pathway for including mathematical descriptions of the physical behavior. We pre-train our foundation model on 6 parametric families of equations collected from 13 datasets, including over 60K trajectories. Our model outperforms popular operator learning, computer vision, and multi-physics models, in benchmark forward prediction tasks. We test our architecture choices with ablation studies.

Creating Computer-Aided Design (CAD) models requires significant expertise and effort. Text-to-CAD, which converts textual descriptions into CAD parametric sequences, is crucial in streamlining this process. Recent studies have utilized ground-truth parametric sequences, known as sequential signals, as supervision to achieve this goal. However, CAD models are inherently multimodal, comprising parametric sequences and corresponding rendered visual objects. Besides,the rendering process from parametric sequences to visual objects is many-to-one. Therefore, both sequential and visual signals are critical for effective training. In this work, we introduce CADFusion, a framework that uses Large Language Models (LLMs) as the backbone and alternates between two training stages: the sequential learning (SL) stage and the visual feedback (VF) stage. In the SL stage, we train LLMs using ground-truth parametric sequences, enabling the generation of logically coherent parametric sequences. In the VF stage, we reward parametric sequences that render into visually preferred objects and penalize those that do not, allowing LLMs to learn how rendered visual objects are perceived and evaluated. These two stages alternate throughout the training, ensuring balanced learning and preserving benefits of both signals. Experiments demonstrate that CADFusion significantly improves performance, both qualitatively and quantitatively.

State-of-the-art language models like T5 have revolutionized the NLP landscape, but their computational demands hinder a large portion of the research community. To address this challenge, we present nanoT5, a specially-optimized PyTorch framework for efficient pre-training and fine-tuning of T5 models. Drawing on insights from optimizer differences and prioritizing efficiency, nanoT5 allows a T5-Base model to be pre-trained on a single GPU in just 16 hours, without any loss in performance. With the introduction of this open-source framework, we hope to widen the accessibility to language modelling research and cater to the community's demand for more user-friendly T5 (Encoder-Decoder) implementations. We make our contributions, including configurations, codebase, pre-training insights, and pre-trained models, available to the public.

In deep learning, performance is strongly affected by the choice of architecture and hyperparameters. While there has been extensive work on automatic hyperparameter optimization for simple spaces, complex spaces such as the space of deep architectures remain largely unexplored. As a result, the choice of architecture is done manually by the human expert through a slow trial and error process guided mainly by intuition. In this paper we describe a framework for automatically designing and training deep models. We propose an extensible and modular language that allows the human expert to compactly represent complex search spaces over architectures and their hyperparameters. The resulting search spaces are tree-structured and therefore easy to traverse. Models can be automatically compiled to computational graphs once values for all hyperparameters have been chosen. We can leverage the structure of the search space to introduce different model search algorithms, such as random search, Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS), and sequential model-based optimization (SMBO). We present experiments comparing the different algorithms on CIFAR-10 and show that MCTS and SMBO outperform random search. In addition, these experiments show that our framework can be used effectively for model discovery, as it is possible to describe expressive search spaces and discover competitive models without much effort from the human expert. Code for our framework and experiments has been made publicly available.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

The analysis of parametric and non-parametric uncertainties of very large dynamical systems requires the construction of a stochastic model of said system. Linear approaches relying on random matrix theory and principal componant analysis can be used when systems undergo low-frequency vibrations. In the case of fast dynamics and wave propagation, we investigate a random generator of boundary conditions for fast submodels by using machine learning. We show that the use of non-linear techniques in machine learning and data-driven methods is highly relevant. Physics-informed neural networks is a possible choice for a data-driven method to replace linear modal analysis. An architecture that support a random component is necessary for the construction of the stochastic model of the physical system for non-parametric uncertainties, since the goal is to learn the underlying probabilistic distribution of uncertainty in the data. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are suited for such applications, where the Wasserstein-GAN with gradient penalty variant offers improved convergence results for our problem. The objective of our approach is to train a GAN on data from a finite element method code (Fenics) so as to extract stochastic boundary conditions for faster finite element predictions on a submodel. The submodel and the training data have both the same geometrical support. It is a zone of interest for uncertainty quantification and relevant to engineering purposes. In the exploitation phase, the framework can be viewed as a randomized and parametrized simulation generator on the submodel, which can be used as a Monte Carlo estimator.

Scaling laws offer valuable insights into the design of time series foundation models (TSFMs). However, previous research has largely focused on the scaling laws of TSFMs for in-distribution (ID) data, leaving their out-of-distribution (OOD) scaling behavior and the influence of model architectures less explored. In this work, we examine two common TSFM architectures, encoder-only and decoder-only Transformers, and investigate their scaling behavior on both ID and OOD data. These models are trained and evaluated across varying parameter counts, compute budgets, and dataset sizes. Our experiments reveal that the log-likelihood loss of TSFMs exhibits similar scaling behavior in both OOD and ID settings. We further compare the scaling properties across different architectures, incorporating two state-of-the-art TSFMs as case studies, showing that model architecture plays a significant role in scaling. The encoder-only Transformers demonstrate better scalability than the decoder-only Transformers, while the architectural enhancements in the two advanced TSFMs primarily improve ID performance but reduce OOD scalability. While scaling up TSFMs is expected to drive performance breakthroughs, the lack of a comprehensive understanding of TSFM scaling laws has hindered the development of a robust framework to guide model scaling. We fill this gap in this work by synthesizing our findings and providing practical guidelines for designing and scaling larger TSFMs with enhanced model capabilities.

Hyperparameter tuning of deep learning models can lead to order-of-magnitude performance gains for the same amount of compute. Despite this, systematic tuning is uncommon, particularly for large models, which are expensive to evaluate and tend to have many hyperparameters, necessitating difficult judgment calls about tradeoffs, budgets, and search bounds. To address these issues and propose a practical method for robustly tuning large models, we present Cost-Aware Pareto Region Bayesian Search (CARBS), a Bayesian optimization algorithm that performs local search around the performance-cost Pareto frontier. CARBS does well even in unbounded search spaces with many hyperparameters, learns scaling relationships so that it can tune models even as they are scaled up, and automates much of the "black magic" of tuning. Among our results, we effectively solve the entire ProcGen benchmark just by tuning a simple baseline (PPO, as provided in the original ProcGen paper). We also reproduce the model size vs. training tokens scaling result from the Chinchilla project (Hoffmann et al. 2022), while simultaneously discovering scaling laws for every other hyperparameter, via an easy automated process that uses significantly less compute and is applicable to any deep learning problem (not just language models).

Recent neural network-based language models have benefited greatly from scaling up the size of training datasets and the number of parameters in the models themselves. Scaling can be complicated due to various factors including the need to distribute computation on supercomputer clusters (e.g., TPUs), prevent bottlenecks when infeeding data, and ensure reproducible results. In this work, we present two software libraries that ease these issues: t5x simplifies the process of building and training large language models at scale while maintaining ease of use, and seqio provides a task-based API for simple creation of fast and reproducible training data and evaluation pipelines. These open-source libraries have been used to train models with hundreds of billions of parameters on datasets with multiple terabytes of training data. Along with the libraries, we release configurations and instructions for T5-like encoder-decoder models as well as GPT-like decoder-only architectures. t5x and seqio are open source and available at https://github.com/google-research/t5x and https://github.com/google/seqio, respectively.

Numerical simulations in climate, chemistry, or astrophysics are computationally too expensive for uncertainty quantification or parameter-exploration at high-resolution. Reduced-order or surrogate models are multiple orders of magnitude faster, but traditional surrogates are inflexible or inaccurate and pure machine learning (ML)-based surrogates too data-hungry. We propose a hybrid, flexible surrogate model that exploits known physics for simulating large-scale dynamics and limits learning to the hard-to-model term, which is called parametrization or closure and captures the effect of fine- onto large-scale dynamics. Leveraging neural operators, we are the first to learn grid-independent, non-local, and flexible parametrizations. Our multiscale neural operator is motivated by a rich literature in multiscale modeling, has quasilinear runtime complexity, is more accurate or flexible than state-of-the-art parametrizations and demonstrated on the chaotic equation multiscale Lorenz96.

Model selection/optimization in conformal inference is challenging, since it may break the exchangeability between labeled and unlabeled data. We study this problem in the context of conformal selection, which uses conformal p-values to select ``interesting'' instances with large unobserved labels from a pool of unlabeled data, while controlling the FDR in finite sample. For validity, existing solutions require the model choice to be independent of the data used to construct the p-values and calibrate the selection set. However, when presented with many model choices and limited labeled data, it is desirable to (i) select the best model in a data-driven manner, and (ii) mitigate power loss due to sample splitting. This paper presents OptCS, a general framework that allows valid statistical testing (selection) after flexible data-driven model optimization. We introduce general conditions under which OptCS constructs valid conformal p-values despite substantial data reuse and handles complex p-value dependencies to maintain finite-sample FDR control via a novel multiple testing procedure. We instantiate this general recipe to propose three FDR-controlling procedures, each optimizing the models differently: (i) selecting the most powerful one among multiple pre-trained candidate models, (ii) using all data for model fitting without sample splitting, and (iii) combining full-sample model fitting and selection. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methods via simulation studies and real applications in drug discovery and alignment of large language models in radiology report generation.

The ubiquity of large-scale Pre-Trained Models (PTMs) is on the rise, sparking interest in model hubs, and dedicated platforms for hosting PTMs. Despite this trend, a comprehensive exploration of the challenges that users encounter and how the community leverages PTMs remains lacking. To address this gap, we conducted an extensive mixed-methods empirical study by focusing on discussion forums and the model hub of HuggingFace, the largest public model hub. Based on our qualitative analysis, we present a taxonomy of the challenges and benefits associated with PTM reuse within this community. We then conduct a quantitative study to track model-type trends and model documentation evolution over time. Our findings highlight prevalent challenges such as limited guidance for beginner users, struggles with model output comprehensibility in training or inference, and a lack of model understanding. We also identified interesting trends among models where some models maintain high upload rates despite a decline in topics related to them. Additionally, we found that despite the introduction of model documentation tools, its quantity has not increased over time, leading to difficulties in model comprehension and selection among users. Our study sheds light on new challenges in reusing PTMs that were not reported before and we provide recommendations for various stakeholders involved in PTM reuse.

Complex prediction models such as deep learning are the output from fitting machine learning, neural networks, or AI models to a set of training data. These are now standard tools in science. A key challenge with the current generation of models is that they are highly parameterized, which makes describing and interpreting the prediction strategies difficult. We use topological data analysis to transform these complex prediction models into pictures representing a topological view. The result is a map of the predictions that enables inspection. The methods scale up to large datasets across different domains and enable us to detect labeling errors in training data, understand generalization in image classification, and inspect predictions of likely pathogenic mutations in the BRCA1 gene.

Invariance and equivariance to geometrical transformations have proven to be very useful inductive biases when training (convolutional) neural network models, especially in the low-data regime. Much work has focused on the case where the symmetry group employed is compact or abelian, or both. Recent work has explored enlarging the class of transformations used to the case of Lie groups, principally through the use of their Lie algebra, as well as the group exponential and logarithm maps. The applicability of such methods to larger transformation groups is limited by the fact that depending on the group of interest G, the exponential map may not be surjective. Further limitations are encountered when G is neither compact nor abelian. Using the structure and geometry of Lie groups and their homogeneous spaces, we present a framework by which it is possible to work with such groups primarily focusing on the Lie groups G = GL^{+}(n, R) and G = SL(n, R), as well as their representation as affine transformations R^{n} rtimes G. Invariant integration as well as a global parametrization is realized by decomposing the `larger` groups into subgroups and submanifolds which can be handled individually. Under this framework, we show how convolution kernels can be parametrized to build models equivariant with respect to affine transformations. We evaluate the robustness and out-of-distribution generalisation capability of our model on the standard affine-invariant benchmark classification task, where we outperform all previous equivariant models as well as all Capsule Network proposals.

The scale of large pre-trained models (PTMs) poses significant challenges in adapting to downstream tasks due to the high optimization overhead and storage costs associated with full-parameter fine-tuning. To address this, many studies explore parameter-efficient tuning methods, also framed as "delta tuning", which updates only a small subset of parameters, known as "delta modules", while keeping the backbone model's parameters fixed. However, the practicality and flexibility of delta tuning have been limited due to existing implementations that directly modify the code of the backbone PTMs and hard-code specific delta tuning methods for each PTM. In this paper, we present OpenDelta, an open-source library that overcomes these limitations by providing a plug-and-play implementation of various delta tuning methods. Our novel techniques eliminate the need to modify the backbone PTMs' code, making OpenDelta compatible with different, even novel PTMs. OpenDelta is designed to be simple, modular, and extensible, providing a comprehensive platform for researchers and practitioners to adapt large PTMs efficiently.

In this work we take a Category Theoretic perspective on the relationship between probabilistic modeling and function approximation. We begin by defining two extensions of function composition to stochastic process subordination: one based on the co-Kleisli category under the comonad (Omega x -) and one based on the parameterization of a category with a Lawvere theory. We show how these extensions relate to the category Stoch and other Markov Categories. Next, we apply the Para construction to extend stochastic processes to parameterized statistical models and we define a way to compose the likelihood functions of these models. We conclude with a demonstration of how the Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure defines an identity-on-objects functor from the category of statistical models to the category of Learners. Code to accompany this paper can be found at https://github.com/dshieble/Categorical_Stochastic_Processes_and_Likelihood

The success of large pretrained models in natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV) has opened new avenues for constructing foundation models for time series forecasting (TSF). Traditional TSF foundation models rely heavily on numerical data fitting. In contrast, the human brain is inherently skilled at processing visual information, prefer predicting future trends by observing visualized sequences. From a biomimetic perspective, utilizing models to directly process numerical sequences might not be the most effective route to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This paper proposes ViTime, a novel Visual Intelligence-based foundation model for TSF. ViTime overcomes the limitations of numerical time series data fitting by utilizing visual data processing paradigms and employs a innovative data synthesis method during training, called Real Time Series (RealTS). Experiments on a diverse set of previously unseen forecasting datasets demonstrate that ViTime achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance, even surpassing the best individually trained supervised models in some situations. These findings suggest that visual intelligence can significantly enhance time series analysis and forecasting, paving the way for more advanced and versatile models in the field. The code for our framework is accessible at https://github.com/IkeYang/ViTime.

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

Parametric Computer-Aided Design (CAD) is central to contemporary mechanical design. However, it encounters challenges in achieving precise parametric sketch modeling and lacks practical evaluation metrics suitable for mechanical design. We harness the capabilities of pre-trained foundation models, renowned for their successes in natural language processing and computer vision, to develop generative models specifically for CAD. These models are adept at understanding complex geometries and design reasoning, a crucial advancement in CAD technology. In this paper, we propose CadVLM, an end-to-end vision language model for CAD generation. Our approach involves adapting pre-trained foundation models to manipulate engineering sketches effectively, integrating both sketch primitive sequences and sketch images. Extensive experiments demonstrate superior performance on multiple CAD sketch generation tasks such as CAD autocompletion, CAD autoconstraint, and image conditional generation. To our knowledge, this is the first instance of a multimodal Large Language Model (LLM) being successfully applied to parametric CAD generation, representing a pioneering step in the field of computer-aided mechanical design.

We train a suite of multimodal foundation models (MMFM) using the popular LLaVA framework with the recently released Gemma family of large language models (LLMs). Of particular interest is the 2B parameter Gemma model, which provides opportunities to construct capable small-scale MMFMs. In line with findings from other papers in this space, we test the effect of ablating three design features: pretraining the connector, utilizing a more powerful image backbone, and increasing the size of the language backbone. The resulting models, which we call LLaVA-Gemma, exhibit moderate performance on an array of evaluations, but fail to improve past the current comparably sized SOTA models. Closer analysis of performance shows mixed effects; skipping pretraining tends to reduce performance, larger vision models sometimes improve performance, and increasing language model size has inconsistent effects. We publicly release training recipes, code and weights for our models for the LLaVA-Gemma models.

This paper focuses on the construction of a general parametric model that can be implemented executing multiple swap tests over few qubits and applying a suitable measurement protocol. The model turns out to be equivalent to a two-layer feedforward neural network which can be realized combining small quantum modules. The advantages and the perspectives of the proposed quantum method are discussed.

One of the most reliable ways to create deployable models for specialized tasks is to obtain an adequate amount of high-quality task-specific data. However, for specialized tasks, often such datasets do not exist. Existing methods address this by creating such data from large language models (LLMs) and then distilling such knowledge into smaller models. However, these methods are limited by the quality of the LLMs output, and tend to generate repetitive or incorrect data. In this work, we present Retrieval Based Distillation (ReBase), a method that first retrieves data from rich online sources and then transforms them into domain-specific data. This method greatly enhances data diversity. Moreover, ReBase generates Chain-of-Thought reasoning and distills the reasoning capacity of LLMs. We test our method on 4 benchmarks and results show that our method significantly improves performance by up to 7.8% on SQuAD, 1.37% on MNLI, and 1.94% on BigBench-Hard.

Test-time scaling is a promising new approach to language modeling that uses extra test-time compute to improve performance. Recently, OpenAI's o1 model showed this capability but did not publicly share its methodology, leading to many replication efforts. We seek the simplest approach to achieve test-time scaling and strong reasoning performance. First, we curate a small dataset s1K of 1,000 questions paired with reasoning traces relying on three criteria we validate through ablations: difficulty, diversity, and quality. Second, we develop budget forcing to control test-time compute by forcefully terminating the model's thinking process or lengthening it by appending "Wait" multiple times to the model's generation when it tries to end. This can lead the model to double-check its answer, often fixing incorrect reasoning steps. After supervised finetuning the Qwen2.5-32B-Instruct language model on s1K and equipping it with budget forcing, our model s1 exceeds o1-preview on competition math questions by up to 27% (MATH and AIME24). Further, scaling s1 with budget forcing allows extrapolating beyond its performance without test-time intervention: from 50% to 57% on AIME24. Our model, data, and code are open-source at https://github.com/simplescaling/s1.

The Maximal Update Parametrization (muP) aims to make the optimal hyperparameters (HPs) of a model independent of its size, allowing them to be swept using a cheap proxy model rather than the full-size target model. We present a new scheme, u-muP, which improves upon muP by combining it with Unit Scaling, a method for designing models that makes them easy to train in low-precision. The two techniques have a natural affinity: muP ensures that the scale of activations is independent of model size, and Unit Scaling ensures that activations, weights and gradients begin training with a scale of one. This synthesis opens the door to a simpler scheme, whose default values are near-optimal. This in turn facilitates a more efficient sweeping strategy, with u-muP models reaching a lower loss than comparable muP models and working out-of-the-box in FP8.

The entry of large language models (LLMs) into research and commercial spaces has led to a trend of ever-larger models, with initial promises of generalisability, followed by a widespread desire to downsize and create specialised models without the need for complete fine-tuning, using Parameter Efficient Fine-tuning (PEFT) methods. We present an investigation into the suitability of different PEFT methods to clinical decision-making tasks, across a range of model sizes, including extremely small models with as few as 25 million parameters. Our analysis shows that the performance of most PEFT approaches varies significantly from one task to another, with the exception of LoRA, which maintains relatively high performance across all model sizes and tasks, typically approaching or matching full fine-tuned performance. The effectiveness of PEFT methods in the clinical domain is evident, particularly for specialised models which can operate on low-cost, in-house computing infrastructure. The advantages of these models, in terms of speed and reduced training costs, dramatically outweighs any performance gain from large foundation LLMs. Furthermore, we highlight how domain-specific pre-training interacts with PEFT methods and model size, and discuss how these factors interplay to provide the best efficiency-performance trade-off. Full code available at: tbd.

The availability of high-quality data is one of the most important factors in improving the reasoning capability of LLMs. Existing works have demonstrated the effectiveness of creating more instruction data from seed questions or knowledge bases. Recent research indicates that continually scaling up data synthesis from strong models (e.g., GPT-4) can further elicit reasoning performance. Though promising, the open-sourced community still lacks high-quality data at scale and scalable data synthesis methods with affordable costs. To address this, we introduce ScaleQuest, a scalable and novel data synthesis method that utilizes "small-size" (e.g., 7B) open-source models to generate questions from scratch without the need for seed data with complex augmentation constraints. With the efficient ScaleQuest, we automatically constructed a mathematical reasoning dataset consisting of 1 million problem-solution pairs, which are more effective than existing open-sourced datasets. It can universally increase the performance of mainstream open-source models (i.e., Mistral, Llama3, DeepSeekMath, and Qwen2-Math) by achieving 29.2% to 46.4% gains on MATH. Notably, simply fine-tuning the Qwen2-Math-7B-Base model with our dataset can even surpass Qwen2-Math-7B-Instruct, a strong and well-aligned model on closed-source data, and proprietary models such as GPT-4-Turbo and Claude-3.5 Sonnet.

In hematology, computational models offer significant potential to improve diagnostic accuracy, streamline workflows, and reduce the tedious work of analyzing single cells in peripheral blood or bone marrow smears. However, clinical adoption of computational models has been hampered by the lack of generalization due to large batch effects, small dataset sizes, and poor performance in transfer learning from natural images. To address these challenges, we introduce DinoBloom, the first foundation model for single cell images in hematology, utilizing a tailored DINOv2 pipeline. Our model is built upon an extensive collection of 13 diverse, publicly available datasets of peripheral blood and bone marrow smears, the most substantial open-source cohort in hematology so far, comprising over 380,000 white blood cell images. To assess its generalization capability, we evaluate it on an external dataset with a challenging domain shift. We show that our model outperforms existing medical and non-medical vision models in (i) linear probing and k-nearest neighbor evaluations for cell-type classification on blood and bone marrow smears and (ii) weakly supervised multiple instance learning for acute myeloid leukemia subtyping by a large margin. A family of four DinoBloom models (small, base, large, and giant) can be adapted for a wide range of downstream applications, be a strong baseline for classification problems, and facilitate the assessment of batch effects in new datasets. All models are available at github.com/marrlab/DinoBloom.

We present a novel application of evolutionary algorithms to automate the creation of powerful foundation models. While model merging has emerged as a promising approach for LLM development due to its cost-effectiveness, it currently relies on human intuition and domain knowledge, limiting its potential. Here, we propose an evolutionary approach that overcomes this limitation by automatically discovering effective combinations of diverse open-source models, harnessing their collective intelligence without requiring extensive additional training data or compute. Our approach operates in both parameter space and data flow space, allowing for optimization beyond just the weights of the individual models. This approach even facilitates cross-domain merging, generating models like a Japanese LLM with Math reasoning capabilities. Surprisingly, our Japanese Math LLM achieved state-of-the-art performance on a variety of established Japanese LLM benchmarks, even surpassing models with significantly more parameters, despite not being explicitly trained for such tasks. Furthermore, a culturally-aware Japanese VLM generated through our approach demonstrates its effectiveness in describing Japanese culture-specific content, outperforming previous Japanese VLMs. This work not only contributes new state-of-the-art models back to the open-source community, but also introduces a new paradigm for automated model composition, paving the way for exploring alternative, efficient approaches to foundation model development.

Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) techniques make it possible to efficiently adapt a language model to create "expert" models that specialize to new tasks or domains. Recent techniques in model merging and compositional generalization leverage these expert models by dynamically composing modules to improve zero/few-shot generalization. Despite the efficiency of PEFT methods, the size of expert models can make it onerous to retrieve expert models per query over high-latency networks like the Internet or serve multiple experts on a single GPU. To address these issues, we present ComPEFT, a novel method for compressing fine-tuning residuals (task vectors) of PEFT based models. ComPEFT employs sparsification and ternary quantization to reduce the size of the PEFT module without performing any additional retraining while preserving or enhancing model performance. In extensive evaluation across T5, T0, and LLaMA-based models with 200M - 65B parameters, ComPEFT achieves compression ratios of 8x - 50x. In particular, we show that ComPEFT improves with scale - stronger models exhibit higher compressibility and better performance. For example, we show that ComPEFT applied to LLaMA outperforms QLoRA by 4.16% on MMLU with a storage size reduction of up to 26x. In addition, we show that the compressed experts produced by ComPEFT maintain few-shot compositional generalization capabilities, facilitate efficient communication and computation, and exhibit enhanced performance when merged. Lastly, we provide an analysis of different method components, compare it with other PEFT methods, and test ComPEFT's efficacy for compressing the residual of full-finetuning. Our code is available at https://github.com/prateeky2806/compeft.

Methods for designing organic materials with desired properties have high potential impact across fields such as medicine, renewable energy, petrochemical engineering, and agriculture. However, using generative modeling to design substances with desired properties is difficult because candidate compounds must satisfy multiple constraints, including synthetic accessibility and other metrics that are intuitive to domain experts but challenging to quantify. We propose C5T5, a novel self-supervised pretraining method that enables transformers to make zero-shot select-and-replace edits, altering organic substances towards desired property values. C5T5 operates on IUPAC names -- a standardized molecular representation that intuitively encodes rich structural information for organic chemists but that has been largely ignored by the ML community. Our technique requires no edited molecule pairs to train and only a rough estimate of molecular properties, and it has the potential to model long-range dependencies and symmetric molecular structures more easily than graph-based methods. C5T5 also provides a powerful interface to domain experts: it grants users fine-grained control over the generative process by selecting and replacing IUPAC name fragments, which enables experts to leverage their intuitions about structure-activity relationships. We demonstrate C5T5's effectiveness on four physical properties relevant for drug discovery, showing that it learns successful and chemically intuitive strategies for altering molecules towards desired property values.

We introduce marginalization models (MaMs), a new family of generative models for high-dimensional discrete data. They offer scalable and flexible generative modeling with tractable likelihoods by explicitly modeling all induced marginal distributions. Marginalization models enable fast evaluation of arbitrary marginal probabilities with a single forward pass of the neural network, which overcomes a major limitation of methods with exact marginal inference, such as autoregressive models (ARMs). We propose scalable methods for learning the marginals, grounded in the concept of "marginalization self-consistency". Unlike previous methods, MaMs support scalable training of any-order generative models for high-dimensional problems under the setting of energy-based training, where the goal is to match the learned distribution to a given desired probability (specified by an unnormalized (log) probability function such as energy function or reward function). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of discrete data distributions, including binary images, language, physical systems, and molecules, for maximum likelihood and energy-based training settings. MaMs achieve orders of magnitude speedup in evaluating the marginal probabilities on both settings. For energy-based training tasks, MaMs enable any-order generative modeling of high-dimensional problems beyond the capability of previous methods. Code is at https://github.com/PrincetonLIPS/MaM.

Hoffmann et al. (2022) propose three methods for estimating a compute-optimal scaling law. We attempt to replicate their third estimation procedure, which involves fitting a parametric loss function to a reconstruction of data from their plots. We find that the reported estimates are inconsistent with their first two estimation methods, fail at fitting the extracted data, and report implausibly narrow confidence intervals--intervals this narrow would require over 600,000 experiments, while they likely only ran fewer than 500. In contrast, our rederivation of the scaling law using the third approach yields results that are compatible with the findings from the first two estimation procedures described by Hoffmann et al.

It is often useful to compactly summarize important properties of model parameters and training data so that they can be used later without storing and/or iterating over the entire dataset. As a specific case, we consider estimating the Function Space Distance (FSD) over a training set, i.e. the average discrepancy between the outputs of two neural networks. We propose a Linearized Activation Function TRick (LAFTR) and derive an efficient approximation to FSD for ReLU neural networks. The key idea is to approximate the architecture as a linear network with stochastic gating. Despite requiring only one parameter per unit of the network, our approach outcompetes other parametric approximations with larger memory requirements. Applied to continual learning, our parametric approximation is competitive with state-of-the-art nonparametric approximations, which require storing many training examples. Furthermore, we show its efficacy in estimating influence functions accurately and detecting mislabeled examples without expensive iterations over the entire dataset.

Models such as GPT-4 and Med-PaLM 2 have demonstrated impressive performance on a wide variety of biomedical NLP tasks. However, these models have hundreds of billions of parameters, are computationally expensive to run, require users to send their input data over the internet, and are trained on unknown data sources. Can smaller, more targeted models compete? To address this question, we build and release BioMedLM, a 2.7 billion parameter GPT-style autoregressive model trained exclusively on PubMed abstracts and full articles. When fine-tuned, BioMedLM can produce strong multiple-choice biomedical question-answering results competitive with much larger models, such as achieving a score of 57.3% on MedMCQA (dev) and 69.0% on the MMLU Medical Genetics exam. BioMedLM can also be fine-tuned to produce useful answers to patient questions on medical topics. This demonstrates that smaller models can potentially serve as transparent, privacy-preserving, economical and environmentally friendly foundations for particular NLP applications, such as in biomedicine. The model is available on the Hugging Face Hub: https://huggingface.co/stanford-crfm/BioMedLM.

We present a conceptual framework, datamodeling, for analyzing the behavior of a model class in terms of the training data. For any fixed "target" example x, training set S, and learning algorithm, a datamodel is a parameterized function 2^S to R that for any subset of S' subset S -- using only information about which examples of S are contained in S' -- predicts the outcome of training a model on S' and evaluating on x. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying process being approximated (e.g., end-to-end training and evaluation of deep neural networks), we show that even simple linear datamodels can successfully predict model outputs. We then demonstrate that datamodels give rise to a variety of applications, such as: accurately predicting the effect of dataset counterfactuals; identifying brittle predictions; finding semantically similar examples; quantifying train-test leakage; and embedding data into a well-behaved and feature-rich representation space. Data for this paper (including pre-computed datamodels as well as raw predictions from four million trained deep neural networks) is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/datamodels-data .

A primary cost driver for training large models is wall-clock training time. We show that popular time estimates based on FLOPs are poor estimates, and construct a more accurate proxy based on memory copies. We show that with some simple accounting, we can estimate the training speed of a transformer model from its hyperparameters. Combined with a scaling law curve like Chinchilla, this lets us estimate the final loss of the model. We fit our estimate to real data with a linear regression, and apply the result to rewrite Chinchilla in terms of a model's estimated training time as opposed to the amount of training data. This gives an expression for the loss in terms of the model's hyperparameters alone. We show that this expression is accurate across a wide range of model hyperparameter values, enabling us to analytically make architectural decisions and train models more efficiently.

In recent years, vision-language models have made significant strides, excelling in tasks like optical character recognition and geometric problem-solving. However, several critical issues remain: 1) Proprietary models often lack transparency about their architectures, while open-source models need more detailed ablations of their training strategies. 2) Pre-training data in open-source works is under-explored, with datasets added empirically, making the process cumbersome. 3) Fine-tuning often focuses on adding datasets, leading to diminishing returns. To address these issues, we propose the following contributions: 1) We trained a robust baseline model using the latest advancements in vision-language models, introducing effective improvements and conducting comprehensive ablation and validation for each technique. 2) Inspired by recent work on large language models, we filtered pre-training data using perplexity, selecting the lowest perplexity data for training. This approach allowed us to train on a curated 1M dataset, achieving competitive performance. 3) During visual instruction tuning, we used model soup on different datasets when adding more datasets yielded marginal improvements. These innovations resulted in a 9B parameter model that performs competitively with state-of-the-art models. Our strategies are efficient and lightweight, making them easily adoptable by the community.

This work presents AstroPT, an autoregressive pretrained transformer developed with astronomical use-cases in mind. The AstroPT models presented here have been pretrained on 8.6 million 512 times 512 pixel grz-band galaxy postage stamp observations from the DESI Legacy Survey DR8. We train a selection of foundation models of increasing size from 1 million to 2.1 billion parameters, and find that AstroPT follows a similar saturating log-log scaling law to textual models. We also find that the models' performances on downstream tasks as measured by linear probing improves with model size up to the model parameter saturation point. We believe that collaborative community development paves the best route towards realising an open source `Large Observation Model' -- a model trained on data taken from the observational sciences at the scale seen in natural language processing. To this end, we release the source code, weights, and dataset for AstroPT under the MIT license, and invite potential collaborators to join us in collectively building and researching these models.

In this paper, we consider the problem of Iterative Machine Teaching (IMT), where the teacher provides examples to the learner iteratively such that the learner can achieve fast convergence to a target model. However, existing IMT algorithms are solely based on parameterized families of target models. They mainly focus on convergence in the parameter space, resulting in difficulty when the target models are defined to be functions without dependency on parameters. To address such a limitation, we study a more general task -- Nonparametric Iterative Machine Teaching (NIMT), which aims to teach nonparametric target models to learners in an iterative fashion. Unlike parametric IMT that merely operates in the parameter space, we cast NIMT as a functional optimization problem in the function space. To solve it, we propose both random and greedy functional teaching algorithms. We obtain the iterative teaching dimension (ITD) of the random teaching algorithm under proper assumptions, which serves as a uniform upper bound of ITD in NIMT. Further, the greedy teaching algorithm has a significantly lower ITD, which reaches a tighter upper bound of ITD in NIMT. Finally, we verify the correctness of our theoretical findings with extensive experiments in nonparametric scenarios.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

State-of-the-art LLMs often rely on scale with high computational costs, which has sparked a research agenda to reduce parameter counts and costs without significantly impacting performance. Our study focuses on Transformer-based LLMs, specifically applying low-rank parametrization to the computationally intensive feedforward networks (FFNs), which are less studied than attention blocks. In contrast to previous works, (i) we explore low-rank parametrization at scale, up to 1.3B parameters; (ii) within Transformer language models rather than convolutional architectures; and (iii) starting from training from scratch. Experiments on the large RefinedWeb dataset show that low-rank parametrization is both efficient (e.g., 2.6times FFN speed-up with 32\% parameters) and effective during training. Interestingly, these structured FFNs exhibit steeper scaling curves than the original models. Motivated by this finding, we develop the wide and structured networks surpassing the current medium-sized and large-sized Transformer in perplexity and throughput performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/CLAIRE-Labo/StructuredFFN/tree/main.

Full-complexity Earth system models (ESMs) are computationally very expensive, limiting their use in exploring the climate outcomes of multiple emission pathways. More efficient emulators that approximate ESMs can directly map emissions onto climate outcomes, and benchmarks are being used to evaluate their accuracy on standardized tasks and datasets. We investigate a popular benchmark in data-driven climate emulation, ClimateBench, on which deep learning-based emulators are currently achieving the best performance. We implement a linear regression-based emulator, akin to pattern scaling, and find that it outperforms the incumbent 100M-parameter deep learning foundation model, ClimaX, on 3 out of 4 regionally-resolved surface-level climate variables. While emulating surface temperature is expected to be predominantly linear, this result is surprising for emulating precipitation. We identify that this outcome is a result of high levels of internal variability in the benchmark targets. To address internal variability, we update the benchmark targets with ensemble averages from the MPI-ESM1.2-LR model that contain 50 instead of 3 climate simulations per emission pathway. Using the new targets, we show that linear pattern scaling continues to be more accurate on temperature, but can be outperformed by a deep learning-based model for emulating precipitation. We publish our code, data, and an interactive tutorial at github.com/blutjens/climate-emulator.

As language models have scaled both their number of parameters and pretraining dataset sizes, the computational cost for pretraining has become intractable except for the most well-resourced teams. This increasing cost makes it ever more important to be able to reuse a model after it has completed pretraining; allowing for a model's abilities to further improve without needing to train from scratch. In this work, we detail a set of guidelines that cover how to design efficacious data distributions and learning rate schedules for continued pretraining of language models. When applying these findings within a continued pretraining run on top of a well-trained 15B parameter model, we show an improvement of 9\% in average model accuracy compared to the baseline of continued training on the pretraining set. The resulting recipe provides a practical starting point with which to begin developing language models through reuse rather than retraining.

The crystallization of modeling methods around the Transformer architecture has been a boon for practitioners. Simple, well-motivated architectural variations can transfer across tasks and scale, increasing the impact of modeling research. However, with the emergence of state-of-the-art 100B+ parameters models, large language models are increasingly expensive to accurately design and train. Notably, it can be difficult to evaluate how modeling decisions may impact emergent capabilities, given that these capabilities arise mainly from sheer scale alone. In the process of building BLOOM--the Big Science Large Open-science Open-access Multilingual language model--our goal is to identify an architecture and training setup that makes the best use of our 1,000,000 A100-GPU-hours budget. Specifically, we perform an ablation study at the billion-parameter scale comparing different modeling practices and their impact on zero-shot generalization. In addition, we study the impact of various popular pre-training corpora on zero-shot generalization. We also study the performance of a multilingual model and how it compares to the English-only one. Finally, we consider the scaling behaviour of Transformers to choose the target model size, shape, and training setup. All our models and code are open-sourced at https://huggingface.co/bigscience .

In this paper, we experimented with the SpeechT5 model pre-trained on large-scale datasets. We pre-trained the foundation model from scratch and fine-tuned it on a large-scale robust multi-speaker text-to-speech (TTS) task. We tested the model capabilities in a zero- and few-shot scenario. Based on two listening tests, we evaluated the synthetic audio quality and the similarity of how synthetic voices resemble real voices. Our results showed that the SpeechT5 model can generate a synthetic voice for any speaker using only one minute of the target speaker's data. We successfully demonstrated the high quality and similarity of our synthetic voices on publicly known Czech politicians and celebrities.

Foundation models are redefining how AI systems are built. Practitioners now follow a standard procedure to build their machine learning solutions: from a pre-trained foundation model, they fine-tune the weights on the target task of interest. So, the Internet is swarmed by a handful of foundation models fine-tuned on many diverse tasks: these individual fine-tunings exist in isolation without benefiting from each other. In our opinion, this is a missed opportunity, as these specialized models contain rich and diverse features. In this paper, we thus propose model ratatouille, a new strategy to recycle the multiple fine-tunings of the same foundation model on diverse auxiliary tasks. Specifically, we repurpose these auxiliary weights as initializations for multiple parallel fine-tunings on the target task; then, we average all fine-tuned weights to obtain the final model. This recycling strategy aims at maximizing the diversity in weights by leveraging the diversity in auxiliary tasks. Empirically, it improves the state of the art on the reference DomainBed benchmark for out-of-distribution generalization. Looking forward, this work contributes to the emerging paradigm of updatable machine learning where, akin to open-source software development, the community collaborates to reliably update machine learning models.

This paper poses two critical issues in evaluating base models (without post-training): (1) Unstable evaluation during training: in the early stages of pre-training, the models lack the capability to answer questions as required, leading to unstable evaluation results. This instability makes it difficult to provide solid conclusions to guide the training, especially for key experiments such as data ablation and scaling law. (2) Inconsistency between base and instruct models: base models generally exhibit poorer evaluation performance compared to corresponding instruct models. This gap poses a challenge for assessing whether a base model with better evaluation can truly lead to a better instruct model. To address these issues, we propose Base model Oriented Systematic Evaluation (BOSE), a method specifically designed to optimize the evaluation of base models. Specifically, BOSE introduces two key innovations: In-Context Light-instruction Prompt (ICLiP) for open-ended tasks and Blank-ppl for multi-choice tasks with candidate options, which transforms the standard perplexity (ppl) metric into a fill-in-the-blank format to mitigate early-stage evaluation fluctuations. Furthermore, we are the first to propose Kendall's rank correlation to quantitatively measure the evaluation stability and consistency. Experimental results demonstrate that BOSE significantly enhances both the stability of evaluations during pre-training and the consistency between base and instruct models, thereby providing more reliable guidance for the LLMs' training.

Non-parametric, k-nearest-neighbor algorithms have recently made inroads to assist generative models such as language models and machine translation decoders. We explore whether such non-parametric models can improve machine translation models at the fine-tuning stage by incorporating statistics from the kNN predictions to inform the gradient updates for a baseline translation model. There are multiple methods which could be used to incorporate kNN statistics and we investigate gradient scaling by a gating mechanism, the kNN's ground truth probability, and reinforcement learning. For four standard in-domain machine translation datasets, compared with classic fine-tuning, we report consistent improvements of all of the three methods by as much as 1.45 BLEU and 1.28 BLEU for German-English and English-German translations respectively. Through qualitative analysis, we found particular improvements when it comes to translating grammatical relations or function words, which results in increased fluency of our model.

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

In this report, we present a series of math-specific large language models: Qwen2.5-Math and Qwen2.5-Math-Instruct-1.5B/7B/72B. The core innovation of the Qwen2.5 series lies in integrating the philosophy of self-improvement throughout the entire pipeline, from pre-training and post-training to inference: (1) During the pre-training phase, Qwen2-Math-Instruct is utilized to generate large-scale, high-quality mathematical data. (2) In the post-training phase, we develop a reward model (RM) by conducting massive sampling from Qwen2-Math-Instruct. This RM is then applied to the iterative evolution of data in supervised fine-tuning (SFT). With a stronger SFT model, it's possible to iteratively train and update the RM, which in turn guides the next round of SFT data iteration. On the final SFT model, we employ the ultimate RM for reinforcement learning, resulting in the Qwen2.5-Math-Instruct. (3) Furthermore, during the inference stage, the RM is used to guide sampling, optimizing the model's performance. Qwen2.5-Math-Instruct supports both Chinese and English, and possess advanced mathematical reasoning capabilities, including Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and Tool-Integrated Reasoning (TIR). We evaluate our models on 10 mathematics datasets in both English and Chinese, such as GSM8K, MATH, GaoKao, AMC23, and AIME24, covering a range of difficulties from grade school level to math competition problems.

This paper presents NT-Java-1.1B, an open-source specialized code language model built on StarCoderBase-1.1B, designed for coding tasks in Java programming. NT-Java-1.1B achieves state-of-the-art performance, surpassing its base model and majority of other models of similar size on MultiPL-E Java code benchmark. While there have been studies on extending large, generic pre-trained models to improve proficiency in specific programming languages like Python, similar investigations on small code models for other programming languages are lacking. Large code models require specialized hardware like GPUs for inference, highlighting the need for research into building small code models that can be deployed on developer desktops. This paper addresses this research gap by focusing on the development of a small Java code model, NT-Java-1.1B, and its quantized versions, which performs comparably to open models around 1.1B on MultiPL-E Java code benchmarks, making them ideal for desktop deployment. This paper establishes the foundation for specialized models across languages and sizes for a family of NT Models.

Robust and effective scaling of models from small to large width typically requires the precise adjustment of many algorithmic and architectural details, such as parameterization and optimizer choices. In this work, we propose a new perspective on parameterization by investigating a key assumption in prior work about the alignment between parameters and data and derive new theoretical results under weaker assumptions and a broader set of optimizers. Our extensive empirical investigation includes tens of thousands of models trained with all combinations of three optimizers, four parameterizations, several alignment assumptions, more than a dozen learning rates, and fourteen model sizes up to 26.8B parameters. We find that the best learning rate scaling prescription would often have been excluded by the assumptions in prior work. Our results show that all parameterizations, not just maximal update parameterization (muP), can achieve hyperparameter transfer; moreover, our novel per-layer learning rate prescription for standard parameterization outperforms muP. Finally, we demonstrate that an overlooked aspect of parameterization, the epsilon parameter in Adam, must be scaled correctly to avoid gradient underflow and propose Adam-atan2, a new numerically stable, scale-invariant version of Adam that eliminates the epsilon hyperparameter entirely.

Spectral analysis provides one of the most effective paradigms for information-preserving dimensionality reduction, as simple descriptions of naturally occurring signals are often obtained via few terms of periodic basis functions. In this work, we study deep neural networks designed to harness the structure in frequency domain for efficient learning of long-range correlations in space or time: frequency-domain models (FDMs). Existing FDMs are based on complex-valued transforms i.e. Fourier Transforms (FT), and layers that perform computation on the spectrum and input data separately. This design introduces considerable computational overhead: for each layer, a forward and inverse FT. Instead, this work introduces a blueprint for frequency domain learning through a single transform: transform once (T1). To enable efficient, direct learning in the frequency domain we derive a variance-preserving weight initialization scheme and investigate methods for frequency selection in reduced-order FDMs. Our results noticeably streamline the design process of FDMs, pruning redundant transforms, and leading to speedups of 3x to 10x that increase with data resolution and model size. We perform extensive experiments on learning the solution operator of spatio-temporal dynamics, including incompressible Navier-Stokes, turbulent flows around airfoils and high-resolution video of smoke. T1 models improve on the test performance of FDMs while requiring significantly less computation (5 hours instead of 32 for our large-scale experiment), with over 20% reduction in average predictive error across tasks.

Large Language Models (LLMs) represent a significant stride toward Artificial General Intelligence. As scaling laws underscore the potential of increasing model sizes, the academic community has intensified its investigations into LLMs with capacities exceeding 50 billion parameters. This technical report builds on our prior work with Tele-FLM (also known as FLM-2), a publicly available 52-billion-parameter model. We delve into two primary areas: we first discuss our observation of Supervised Fine-tuning (SFT) on Tele-FLM-52B, which supports the "less is more" approach for SFT data construction; second, we demonstrate our experiments and analyses on the best practices for progressively growing a model from 52 billion to 102 billion, and subsequently to 1 trillion parameters. We will open-source a 1T model checkpoint, namely Tele-FLM-1T, to advance further training and research.

In nature, the behaviors of many complex systems can be described by parsimonious math equations. Automatically distilling these equations from limited data is cast as a symbolic regression process which hitherto remains a grand challenge. Keen efforts in recent years have been placed on tackling this issue and demonstrated success in symbolic regression. However, there still exist bottlenecks that current methods struggle to break when the discrete search space tends toward infinity and especially when the underlying math formula is intricate. To this end, we propose a novel Reinforcement Symbolic Regression Machine (RSRM) that masters the capability of uncovering complex math equations from only scarce data. The RSRM model is composed of three key modules: (1) a Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) agent that explores optimal math expression trees consisting of pre-defined math operators and variables, (2) a Double Q-learning block that helps reduce the feasible search space of MCTS via properly understanding the distribution of reward, and (3) a modulated sub-tree discovery block that heuristically learns and defines new math operators to improve representation ability of math expression trees. Biding of these modules yields the state-of-the-art performance of RSRM in symbolic regression as demonstrated by multiple sets of benchmark examples. The RSRM model shows clear superiority over several representative baseline models.

Modeling long-range dependencies across sequences is a longstanding goal in machine learning and has led to architectures, such as state space models, that dramatically outperform Transformers on long sequences. However, these impressive empirical gains have been by and large demonstrated on benchmarks (e.g. Long Range Arena), where models are randomly initialized and trained to predict a target label from an input sequence. In this work, we show that random initialization leads to gross overestimation of the differences between architectures and that pretraining with standard denoising objectives, using only the downstream task data, leads to dramatic gains across multiple architectures and to very small gaps between Transformers and state space models (SSMs). In stark contrast to prior works, we find vanilla Transformers to match the performance of S4 on Long Range Arena when properly pretrained, and we improve the best reported results of SSMs on the PathX-256 task by 20 absolute points. Subsequently, we analyze the utility of previously-proposed structured parameterizations for SSMs and show they become mostly redundant in the presence of data-driven initialization obtained through pretraining. Our work shows that, when evaluating different architectures on supervised tasks, incorporation of data-driven priors via pretraining is essential for reliable performance estimation, and can be done efficiently.

Large pre-trained models for zero/few-shot learning excel in language and vision domains but encounter challenges in multivariate time series (TS) due to the diverse nature and scarcity of publicly available pre-training data. Consequently, there has been a recent surge in utilizing pre-trained large language models (LLMs) with token adaptations for TS forecasting. These approaches employ cross-domain transfer learning and surprisingly yield impressive results. However, these models are typically very slow and large (~billion parameters) and do not consider cross-channel correlations. To address this, we present Tiny Time Mixers (TTM), a significantly small model based on the lightweight TSMixer architecture. TTM marks the first success in developing fast and tiny general pre-trained models (<1M parameters), exclusively trained on public TS datasets, with effective transfer learning capabilities for forecasting. To tackle the complexity of pre-training on multiple datasets with varied temporal resolutions, we introduce several novel enhancements such as adaptive patching, dataset augmentation via downsampling, and resolution prefix tuning. Moreover, we employ a multi-level modeling strategy to effectively model channel correlations and infuse exogenous signals during fine-tuning, a crucial capability lacking in existing benchmarks. TTM shows significant accuracy gains (12-38\%) over popular benchmarks in few/zero-shot forecasting. It also drastically reduces the compute needs as compared to LLM-TS methods, with a 14X cut in learnable parameters, 106X less total parameters, and substantial reductions in fine-tuning (65X) and inference time (54X). In fact, TTM's zero-shot often surpasses the few-shot results in many popular benchmarks, highlighting the efficacy of our approach. Code and pre-trained models will be open-sourced.

The emergence of large-scale multi-modal generative models has drastically advanced artificial intelligence, introducing unprecedented levels of performance and functionality. However, optimizing these models remains challenging due to historically isolated paths of model-centric and data-centric developments, leading to suboptimal outcomes and inefficient resource utilization. In response, we present a novel sandbox suite tailored for integrated data-model co-development. This sandbox provides a comprehensive experimental platform, enabling rapid iteration and insight-driven refinement of both data and models. Our proposed "Probe-Analyze-Refine" workflow, validated through applications on state-of-the-art LLaVA-like and DiT based models, yields significant performance boosts, such as topping the VBench leaderboard. We also uncover fruitful insights gleaned from exhaustive benchmarks, shedding light on the critical interplay between data quality, diversity, and model behavior. With the hope of fostering deeper understanding and future progress in multi-modal data and generative modeling, our codes, datasets, and models are maintained and accessible at https://github.com/modelscope/data-juicer/blob/main/docs/Sandbox.md.

Toeplitz Neural Networks (TNNs) have exhibited outstanding performance in various sequence modeling tasks. They outperform commonly used Transformer-based models while benefiting from log-linear space-time complexities. On the other hand, State Space Models (SSMs) achieve lower performance than TNNs in language modeling but offer the advantage of constant inference complexity. In this paper, we aim to combine the strengths of TNNs and SSMs by converting TNNs to SSMs during inference, thereby enabling TNNs to achieve the same constant inference complexities as SSMs. To accomplish this, we formulate the conversion process as an optimization problem and provide a closed-form solution. We demonstrate how to transform the target equation into a Vandermonde linear system problem, which can be efficiently solved using the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT). Notably, our method requires no training and maintains numerical stability. It can be also applied to any LongConv-based model. To assess its effectiveness, we conduct extensive experiments on language modeling tasks across various settings. Additionally, we compare our method to other gradient-descent solutions, highlighting the superior numerical stability of our approach. The source code is available at https://github.com/OpenNLPLab/ETSC-Exact-Toeplitz-to-SSM-Conversion.

Previous works on Treatment Effect Estimation (TEE) are not in widespread use because they are predominantly theoretical, where strong parametric assumptions are made but untractable for practical application. Recent work uses multilayer perceptron (MLP) for modeling casual relationships, however, MLPs lag far behind recent advances in ML methodology, which limits their applicability and generalizability. To extend beyond the single domain formulation and towards more realistic learning scenarios, we explore model design spaces beyond MLPs, i.e., transformer backbones, which provide flexibility where attention layers govern interactions among treatments and covariates to exploit structural similarities of potential outcomes for confounding control. Through careful model design, Transformers as Treatment Effect Estimators (TransTEE) is proposed. We show empirically that TransTEE can: (1) serve as a general purpose treatment effect estimator that significantly outperforms competitive baselines in a variety of challenging TEE problems (e.g., discrete, continuous, structured, or dosage-associated treatments) and is applicable to both when covariates are tabular and when they consist of structural data (e.g., texts, graphs); (2) yield multiple advantages: compatibility with propensity score modeling, parameter efficiency, robustness to continuous treatment value distribution shifts, explainable in covariate adjustment, and real-world utility in auditing pre-trained language models

Recent research trends in computational biology have increasingly focused on integrating text and bio-entity modeling, especially in the context of molecules and proteins. However, previous efforts like BioT5 faced challenges in generalizing across diverse tasks and lacked a nuanced understanding of molecular structures, particularly in their textual representations (e.g., IUPAC). This paper introduces BioT5+, an extension of the BioT5 framework, tailored to enhance biological research and drug discovery. BioT5+ incorporates several novel features: integration of IUPAC names for molecular understanding, inclusion of extensive bio-text and molecule data from sources like bioRxiv and PubChem, the multi-task instruction tuning for generality across tasks, and a novel numerical tokenization technique for improved processing of numerical data. These enhancements allow BioT5+ to bridge the gap between molecular representations and their textual descriptions, providing a more holistic understanding of biological entities, and largely improving the grounded reasoning of bio-text and bio-sequences. The model is pre-trained and fine-tuned with a large number of experiments, including 3 types of problems (classification, regression, generation), 15 kinds of tasks, and 21 total benchmark datasets, demonstrating the remarkable performance and state-of-the-art results in most cases. BioT5+ stands out for its ability to capture intricate relationships in biological data, thereby contributing significantly to bioinformatics and computational biology. Our code is available at https://github.com/QizhiPei/BioT5.

Sequential learning paradigms pose challenges for gradient-based deep learning due to difficulties incorporating new data and retaining prior knowledge. While Gaussian processes elegantly tackle these problems, they struggle with scalability and handling rich inputs, such as images. To address these issues, we introduce a technique that converts neural networks from weight space to function space, through a dual parameterization. Our parameterization offers: (i) a way to scale function-space methods to large data sets via sparsification, (ii) retention of prior knowledge when access to past data is limited, and (iii) a mechanism to incorporate new data without retraining. Our experiments demonstrate that we can retain knowledge in continual learning and incorporate new data efficiently. We further show its strengths in uncertainty quantification and guiding exploration in model-based RL. Further information and code is available on the project website.

Fine-tuning large models is highly effective, however, inference can be expensive and produces carbon emissions. Knowledge distillation has been shown to be a practical solution to reduce inference costs, but the distillation process itself requires significant computational resources. Rather than buying or renting GPUs to fine-tune, then distill a large model, an NLP practitioner might instead choose to allocate the available budget to hire annotators and manually label additional fine-tuning data. In this paper, we investigate how to most efficiently use a fixed budget to build a compact model. Through extensive experiments on six diverse tasks, we show that distilling from T5-XXL (11B) to T5-Small (60M) is almost always a cost-efficient strategy compared to annotating more data to directly train a compact model (T5-Small). We further investigate how the optimal budget allocated towards computation varies across scenarios. We will make our code, datasets, annotation cost estimates, and baseline models available as a benchmark to support further work on cost-efficient training of compact models.

In conversational AI research, there's a noticeable trend towards developing models with a larger number of parameters, exemplified by models like ChatGPT. While these expansive models tend to generate increasingly better chat responses, they demand significant computational resources and memory. This study explores a pertinent question: Can a combination of smaller models collaboratively achieve comparable or enhanced performance relative to a singular large model? We introduce an approach termed "blending", a straightforward yet effective method of integrating multiple chat AIs. Our empirical evidence suggests that when specific smaller models are synergistically blended, they can potentially outperform or match the capabilities of much larger counterparts. For instance, integrating just three models of moderate size (6B/13B paramaeters) can rival or even surpass the performance metrics of a substantially larger model like ChatGPT (175B+ paramaters). This hypothesis is rigorously tested using A/B testing methodologies with a large user base on the Chai research platform over a span of thirty days. The findings underscore the potential of the "blending" strategy as a viable approach for enhancing chat AI efficacy without a corresponding surge in computational demands.

Post-training has emerged as a crucial paradigm for adapting large-scale pre-trained models to various tasks, whose effects are fully reflected by delta parameters (i.e., the disparity between post-trained and pre-trained parameters). While numerous studies have explored delta parameter properties via operations like pruning, quantization, low-rank approximation, and extrapolation, a unified framework for systematically examining these characteristics has been lacking. In this paper, we propose a novel perspective based on Riemann sum approximation of the loss function to elucidate delta parameter editing operations. Our analysis categorizes existing methods into three classes based on their post-editing performance: competitive, decreased, and improved, explaining how they are expressed by the Riemann sum approximation term and how they alter the model performance. Extensive experiments on both visual and language models, including ViT, LLaMA 3, Qwen 2, and Mistral, corroborate our theoretical findings. Furthermore, we introduce extensions to existing techniques like DARE and BitDelta, highlighting their limitations in leveraging the properties of delta parameters and reorganizing them into general expressions to enhance the applicability and effectiveness of delta parameter editing in post-trained models.

Approximating nonlinear differential equations using a neural network provides a robust and efficient tool for various scientific computing tasks, including real-time predictions, inverse problems, optimal controls, and surrogate modeling. Previous works have focused on embedding dynamical systems into networks through two approaches: learning a single solution operator (i.e., the mapping from input parametrized functions to solutions) or learning the governing system of equations (i.e., the constitutive model relative to the state variables). Both of these approaches yield different representations for the same underlying data or function. Additionally, observing that families of differential equations often share key characteristics, we seek one network representation across a wide range of equations. Our method, called Predicting Operators and Symbolic Expressions (PROSE), learns maps from multimodal inputs to multimodal outputs, capable of generating both numerical predictions and mathematical equations. By using a transformer structure and a feature fusion approach, our network can simultaneously embed sets of solution operators for various parametric differential equations using a single trained network. Detailed experiments demonstrate that the network benefits from its multimodal nature, resulting in improved prediction accuracy and better generalization. The network is shown to be able to handle noise in the data and errors in the symbolic representation, including noisy numerical values, model misspecification, and erroneous addition or deletion of terms. PROSE provides a new neural network framework for differential equations which allows for more flexibility and generality in learning operators and governing equations from data.

We introduce TabRepo, a new dataset of tabular model evaluations and predictions. TabRepo contains the predictions and metrics of 1310 models evaluated on 200 classification and regression datasets. We illustrate the benefit of our dataset in multiple ways. First, we show that it allows to perform analysis such as comparing Hyperparameter Optimization against current AutoML systems while also considering ensembling at marginal cost by using precomputed model predictions. Second, we show that our dataset can be readily leveraged to perform transfer-learning. In particular, we show that applying standard transfer-learning techniques allows to outperform current state-of-the-art tabular systems in accuracy, runtime and latency.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

When learning simulations for modeling physical phenomena in industrial designs, geometrical variabilities are of prime interest. While classical regression techniques prove effective for parameterized geometries, practical scenarios often involve the absence of shape parametrization during the inference stage, leaving us with only mesh discretizations as available data. Learning simulations from such mesh-based representations poses significant challenges, with recent advances relying heavily on deep graph neural networks to overcome the limitations of conventional machine learning approaches. Despite their promising results, graph neural networks exhibit certain drawbacks, including their dependency on extensive datasets and limitations in providing built-in predictive uncertainties or handling large meshes. In this work, we propose a machine learning method that do not rely on graph neural networks. Complex geometrical shapes and variations with fixed topology are dealt with using well-known mesh morphing onto a common support, combined with classical dimensionality reduction techniques and Gaussian processes. The proposed methodology can easily deal with large meshes without the need for explicit shape parameterization and provides crucial predictive uncertainties, which are essential for informed decision-making. In the considered numerical experiments, the proposed method is competitive with respect to existing graph neural networks, regarding training efficiency and accuracy of the predictions.

Mathematical capabilities were previously believed to emerge in common language models only at a very large scale or require extensive math-related pre-training. This paper shows that the LLaMA-2 7B model with common pre-training already exhibits strong mathematical abilities, as evidenced by its impressive accuracy of 97.7% and 72.0% on the GSM8K and MATH benchmarks, respectively, when selecting the best response from 256 random generations. The primary issue with the current base model is the difficulty in consistently eliciting its inherent mathematical capabilities. Notably, the accuracy for the first answer drops to 49.5% and 7.9% on the GSM8K and MATH benchmarks, respectively. We find that simply scaling up the SFT data can significantly enhance the reliability of generating correct answers. However, the potential for extensive scaling is constrained by the scarcity of publicly available math questions. To overcome this limitation, we employ synthetic data, which proves to be nearly as effective as real data and shows no clear saturation when scaled up to approximately one million samples. This straightforward approach achieves an accuracy of 82.6% on GSM8K and 40.6% on MATH using LLaMA-2 7B models, surpassing previous models by 14.2% and 20.8%, respectively. We also provide insights into scaling behaviors across different reasoning complexities and error types.

Reverse derivative categories (RDCs) have recently been shown to be a suitable semantic framework for studying machine learning algorithms. Whereas emphasis has been put on training methodologies, less attention has been devoted to particular model classes: the concrete categories whose morphisms represent machine learning models. In this paper we study presentations by generators and equations of classes of RDCs. In particular, we propose polynomial circuits as a suitable machine learning model. We give an axiomatisation for these circuits and prove a functional completeness result. Finally, we discuss the use of polynomial circuits over specific semirings to perform machine learning with discrete values.

The approximation of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) using neural networks has seen significant advancements through Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs). Despite their straightforward optimization framework and flexibility in implementing various PDEs, PINNs often suffer from limited accuracy due to the spectral bias of Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs), which struggle to effectively learn high-frequency and non-linear components. Recently, parametric mesh representations in combination with neural networks have been investigated as a promising approach to eliminate the inductive biases of neural networks. However, they usually require very high-resolution grids and a large number of collocation points to achieve high accuracy while avoiding overfitting issues. In addition, the fixed positions of the mesh parameters restrict their flexibility, making it challenging to accurately approximate complex PDEs. To overcome these limitations, we propose Physics-Informed Gaussians (PIGs), which combine feature embeddings using Gaussian functions with a lightweight neural network. Our approach uses trainable parameters for the mean and variance of each Gaussian, allowing for dynamic adjustment of their positions and shapes during training. This adaptability enables our model to optimally approximate PDE solutions, unlike models with fixed parameter positions. Furthermore, the proposed approach maintains the same optimization framework used in PINNs, allowing us to benefit from their excellent properties. Experimental results show the competitive performance of our model across various PDEs, demonstrating its potential as a robust tool for solving complex PDEs. Our project page is available at https://namgyukang.github.io/Physics-Informed-Gaussians/

As deep neural networks include a high number of parameters and operations, it can be a challenge to implement these models on devices with limited computational resources. Despite the development of novel pruning methods toward resource-efficient models, it has become evident that these models are not capable of handling "imbalanced" and "limited number of data points". We proposed a novel filter pruning method by considering the input and output of filters along with the values of the filters that deal with imbalanced datasets better than others. Our pruning method considers the fact that all information about the importance of a filter may not be reflected in the value of the filter. Instead, it is reflected in the changes made to the data after the filter is applied to it. In this work, three methods are compared with the same training conditions except for the ranking values of each method, and 14 methods are compared from other papers. We demonstrated that our model performed significantly better than other methods for imbalanced medical datasets. For example, when we removed up to 58% of FLOPs for the IDRID dataset and up to 45% for the ISIC dataset, our model was able to yield an equivalent (or even superior) result to the baseline model. To evaluate FLOP and parameter reduction using our model in real-world settings, we built a smartphone app, where we demonstrated a reduction of up to 79% in memory usage and 72% in prediction time. All codes and parameters for training different models are available at https://github.com/mohofar/Beta-Rank

In "Backprop as functor", the authors show that the fundamental elements of deep learning -- gradient descent and backpropagation -- can be conceptualized as a strong monoidal functor Para(Euc)toLearn from the category of parameterized Euclidean spaces to that of learners, a category developed explicitly to capture parameter update and backpropagation. It was soon realized that there is an isomorphism LearncongPara(Slens), where Slens is the symmetric monoidal category of simple lenses as used in functional programming. In this note, we observe that Slens is a full subcategory of Poly, the category of polynomial functors in one variable, via the functor Amapsto Ay^A. Using the fact that (Poly,otimes) is monoidal closed, we show that a map Ato B in Para(Slens) has a natural interpretation in terms of dynamical systems (more precisely, generalized Moore machines) whose interface is the internal-hom type [Ay^A,By^B]. Finally, we review the fact that the category p-Coalg of dynamical systems on any p in Poly forms a topos, and consider the logical propositions that can be stated in its internal language. We give gradient descent as an example, and we conclude by discussing some directions for future work.

When training deep learning models, the performance depends largely on the selected hyperparameters. However, hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is often one of the most expensive parts of model design. Classical HPO methods treat this as a black-box optimization problem. However, gray-box HPO methods, which incorporate more information about the setup, have emerged as a promising direction for more efficient optimization. For example, using intermediate loss evaluations to terminate bad selections. In this work, we propose an HPO method for neural networks using logged checkpoints of the trained weights to guide future hyperparameter selections. Our method, Forecasting Model Search (FMS), embeds weights into a Gaussian process deep kernel surrogate model, using a permutation-invariant graph metanetwork to be data-efficient with the logged network weights. To facilitate reproducibility and further research, we open-source our code at https://github.com/NVlabs/forecasting-model-search.

Pre-trained models have become the preferred backbone due to the expansion of model parameters, with techniques like Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFTs) typically fixing the parameters of these models. However, pre-trained models may not always be optimal, especially when there are discrepancies between training tasks and target tasks, potentially resulting in negative transfer. To address this, we introduce KIND, which performs Knowledge INtegration and Diversion in diffusion models. KIND first integrates knowledge by decomposing parameter matrices of models using U, Sigma, and V matrices, formally inspired by singular value decomposition (SVD). Then it explicitly partitions the components of these matrices into learngenes and tailors to condense common and class-specific knowledge, respectively, through a class gate. In this way, KIND redefines traditional pre-training methods by adjusting training objectives from maximizing model performance on current tasks to condensing transferable common knowledge, leveraging the Learngene framework. We conduct experiments on ImageNet-1K and compare KIND with PEFT and other learngene methods. Results indicate that KIND achieves state-of-the-art performance compared to other PEFT and learngene methods. Specifically, the images generated by KIND achieves more than 6.54 and 1.07 decrease in FID and sFID on DiT-L/2, utilizing only 45.4M trainable parameters and saving at least 35.4G FLOPs in computational cost.

Recently, Mixture-of-Experts (short as MoE) architecture has achieved remarkable success in increasing the model capacity of large-scale language models. However, MoE requires incorporating significantly more parameters than the base model being extended. In this paper, we propose building a parameter-efficient MoE architecture by sharing information among experts. We adopt the matrix product operator (MPO, a tensor decomposition from quantum many-body physics) to reconstruct the parameter matrix in the expert layer and increase model capacity for pre-trained language models by sharing parameters of the central tensor (containing the core information) among different experts while enabling the specificity through the auxiliary tensors (complementing the central tensor) of different experts. To address the unbalanced optimization issue, we further design the gradient mask strategy for the MPO-based MoE architecture. Extensive experiments based on T5 and GPT-2 show improved performance and efficiency of the pre-trained language model (27.2x reduction in total parameters for the superior model performance, compared with the Switch Transformers). Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/RUCAIBox/MPOE.

Adapting pre-trained foundation models for various downstream tasks has been prevalent in artificial intelligence. Due to the vast number of tasks and high costs, adjusting all parameters becomes unfeasible. To mitigate this, several fine-tuning techniques have been developed to update the pre-trained model weights in a more resource-efficient manner, such as through low-rank adjustments. Yet, almost all of these methods focus on linear weights, neglecting the intricacies of parameter spaces in higher dimensions like 4D. Alternatively, some methods can be adapted for high-dimensional parameter space by compressing changes in the original space into two dimensions and then employing low-rank matrix decomposition. However, these approaches destructs the structural integrity of the involved high-dimensional spaces. To tackle the diversity of dimensional spaces across different foundation models and provide a more precise representation of the changes within these spaces, this paper introduces a generalized parameter-efficient fine-tuning framework, FLoRA, designed for various dimensional parameter space. Specifically, utilizing Tucker decomposition, FLoRA asserts that changes in each dimensional parameter space are based on a low-rank core space which maintains the consistent topological structure with the original space. It then models the changes through this core space alongside corresponding weights to reconstruct alterations in the original space. FLoRA effectively preserves the structural integrity of the change of original N-dimensional parameter space, meanwhile decomposes it via low-rank tensor decomposition. Extensive experiments on computer vision, natural language processing and multi-modal tasks validate FLoRA's effectiveness. Codes are available at https://github.com/SJTU-DeepVisionLab/FLoRA.

Given the exponential growth of the volume of the ball w.r.t. its radius, the hyperbolic space is capable of embedding trees with arbitrarily small distortion and hence has received wide attention for representing hierarchical datasets. However, this exponential growth property comes at a price of numerical instability such that training hyperbolic learning models will sometimes lead to catastrophic NaN problems, encountering unrepresentable values in floating point arithmetic. In this work, we carefully analyze the limitation of two popular models for the hyperbolic space, namely, the Poincar\'e ball and the Lorentz model. We first show that, under the 64 bit arithmetic system, the Poincar\'e ball has a relatively larger capacity than the Lorentz model for correctly representing points. Then, we theoretically validate the superiority of the Lorentz model over the Poincar\'e ball from the perspective of optimization. Given the numerical limitations of both models, we identify one Euclidean parametrization of the hyperbolic space which can alleviate these limitations. We further extend this Euclidean parametrization to hyperbolic hyperplanes and exhibits its ability in improving the performance of hyperbolic SVM.

Recent advancements in generation models have showcased remarkable capabilities in generating fantastic content. However, most of them are trained on proprietary high-quality data, and some models withhold their parameters and only provide accessible application programming interfaces (APIs), limiting their benefits for downstream tasks. To explore the feasibility of training a text-to-image generation model comparable to advanced models using publicly available resources, we introduce EvolveDirector. This framework interacts with advanced models through their public APIs to obtain text-image data pairs to train a base model. Our experiments with extensive data indicate that the model trained on generated data of the advanced model can approximate its generation capability. However, it requires large-scale samples of 10 million or more. This incurs significant expenses in time, computational resources, and especially the costs associated with calling fee-based APIs. To address this problem, we leverage pre-trained large vision-language models (VLMs) to guide the evolution of the base model. VLM continuously evaluates the base model during training and dynamically updates and refines the training dataset by the discrimination, expansion, deletion, and mutation operations. Experimental results show that this paradigm significantly reduces the required data volume. Furthermore, when approaching multiple advanced models, EvolveDirector can select the best samples generated by them to learn powerful and balanced abilities. The final trained model Edgen is demonstrated to outperform these advanced models. The code and model weights are available at https://github.com/showlab/EvolveDirector.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have sparked significant interest in their generative capabilities, leading to the development of various commercial applications. The high cost of using the models drives application builders to maximize the value of generation under a limited inference budget. This paper presents a study of optimizing inference hyperparameters such as the number of responses, temperature and max tokens, which significantly affects the utility/cost of text generation. We design a framework named EcoOptiGen which leverages economical hyperparameter optimization and cost-based pruning. Experiments with the GPT-3.5/GPT-4 models on a variety of tasks verify its effectiveness. EcoOptiGen is implemented in the `autogen' package of the FLAML library: https://aka.ms/autogen.

As large language models (LLMs) are continuously being developed, their evaluation becomes increasingly important yet challenging. This work proposes Chain-of-Thought Hub, an open-source evaluation suite on the multi-step reasoning capabilities of large language models. We are interested in this setting for two reasons: (1) from the behavior of GPT and PaLM model family, we observe that complex reasoning is likely to be a key differentiator between weaker and stronger LLMs; (2) we envisage large language models to become the next-generation computational platform and foster an ecosystem of LLM-based new applications, this naturally requires the foundation models to perform complex tasks that often involve the composition of linguistic and logical operations. Our approach is to compile a suite of challenging reasoning benchmarks to track the progress of LLMs. Our current results show that: (1) model scale clearly correlates with reasoning capabilities; (2) As of May 2023, Claude-v1.3 and PaLM-2 are the only two models that are comparable with GPT-4, while open-sourced models still lag behind; (3) LLaMA-65B performs closely to code-davinci-002, indicating that with successful further development such as reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), it has great potential to be close to GPT-3.5-Turbo. Our results also suggest that for the open-source efforts to catch up, the community may focus more on building better base models and exploring RLHF.

The cost of hyperparameter tuning in deep learning has been rising with model sizes, prompting practitioners to find new tuning methods using a proxy of smaller networks. One such proposal uses muP parameterized networks, where the optimal hyperparameters for small width networks transfer to networks with arbitrarily large width. However, in this scheme, hyperparameters do not transfer across depths. As a remedy, we study residual networks with a residual branch scale of 1/text{depth} in combination with the muP parameterization. We provide experiments demonstrating that residual architectures including convolutional ResNets and Vision Transformers trained with this parameterization exhibit transfer of optimal hyperparameters across width and depth on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet. Furthermore, our empirical findings are supported and motivated by theory. Using recent developments in the dynamical mean field theory (DMFT) description of neural network learning dynamics, we show that this parameterization of ResNets admits a well-defined feature learning joint infinite-width and infinite-depth limit and show convergence of finite-size network dynamics towards this limit.

We study the problem of designing models for machine learning tasks defined on sets. In contrast to traditional approach of operating on fixed dimensional vectors, we consider objective functions defined on sets that are invariant to permutations. Such problems are widespread, ranging from estimation of population statistics poczos13aistats, to anomaly detection in piezometer data of embankment dams Jung15Exploration, to cosmology Ntampaka16Dynamical,Ravanbakhsh16ICML1. Our main theorem characterizes the permutation invariant functions and provides a family of functions to which any permutation invariant objective function must belong. This family of functions has a special structure which enables us to design a deep network architecture that can operate on sets and which can be deployed on a variety of scenarios including both unsupervised and supervised learning tasks. We also derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for permutation equivariance in deep models. We demonstrate the applicability of our method on population statistic estimation, point cloud classification, set expansion, and outlier detection.

In the era of proliferation of large language and image generation models, the phenomenon of "model collapse" refers to the situation whereby as a model is trained recursively on data generated from previous generations of itself over time, its performance degrades until the model eventually becomes completely useless, i.e the model collapses. In this work, we study this phenomenon in the setting of high-dimensional regression and obtain analytic formulae which quantitatively outline this phenomenon in a broad range of regimes. In the special case of polynomial decaying spectral and source conditions, we obtain modified scaling laws which exhibit new crossover phenomena from fast to slow rates. We also propose a simple strategy based on adaptive regularization to mitigate model collapse. Our theoretical results are validated with experiments.

While fine-tuning pretrained models has become common practice, these models often underperform outside their specific domains. Recently developed model merging techniques enable the direct integration of multiple models, each fine-tuned for distinct tasks, into a single model. This strategy promotes multitasking capabilities without requiring retraining on the original datasets. However, existing methods fall short in addressing potential conflicts and complex correlations between tasks, especially in parameter-level adjustments, posing a challenge in effectively balancing parameter competition across various tasks. This paper introduces an innovative technique named PCB-Merging (Parameter Competition Balancing), a lightweight and training-free technique that adjusts the coefficients of each parameter for effective model merging. PCB-Merging employs intra-balancing to gauge parameter significance within individual tasks and inter-balancing to assess parameter similarities across different tasks. Parameters with low importance scores are dropped, and the remaining ones are rescaled to form the final merged model. We assessed our approach in diverse merging scenarios, including cross-task, cross-domain, and cross-training configurations, as well as out-of-domain generalization. The experimental results reveal that our approach achieves substantial performance enhancements across multiple modalities, domains, model sizes, number of tasks, fine-tuning forms, and large language models, outperforming existing model merging methods. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/duguodong7/pcb-merging.

We study the realizability of simplicial complexes with a given pair of integer sequences, representing the node degree distribution and the facet size distribution, respectively. While the s-uniform variant of the problem is NP-complete when s geq 3, we identify two populations of input sequences, most of which can be solved in polynomial time using a recursive algorithm that we contribute. Combining with a sampler for the simplicial configuration model [J.-G. Young et al., Phys. Rev. E 96, 032312 (2017)], we facilitate the efficient sampling of simplicial ensembles from arbitrary degree and size distributions. We find that, contrary to expectations based on dyadic networks, increasing the nodes' degrees reduces the number of loops in simplicial complexes. Our work unveils a fundamental constraint on the degree-size sequences and sheds light on further analysis of higher-order phenomena based on local structures.

We present a self-supervised, time-to-event (TTE) foundation model called MOTOR (Many Outcome Time Oriented Representations) which is pretrained on timestamped sequences of events in electronic health records (EHR) and health insurance claims. TTE models are used for estimating the probability distribution of the time until a specific event occurs, which is an important task in medical settings. TTE models provide many advantages over classification using fixed time horizons, including naturally handling censored observations, but are challenging to train with limited labeled data. MOTOR addresses this challenge by pretraining on up to 55M patient records (9B clinical events). We evaluate MOTOR's transfer learning performance on 19 tasks, across 3 patient databases (a private EHR system, MIMIC-IV, and Merative claims data). Task-specific models adapted from MOTOR improve time-dependent C statistics by 4.6% over state-of-the-art, improve label efficiency by up to 95% ,and are more robust to temporal distributional shifts. We further evaluate cross-site portability by adapting our MOTOR foundation model for six prediction tasks on the MIMIC-IV dataset, where it outperforms all baselines. MOTOR is the first foundation model for medical TTE predictions and we release a 143M parameter pretrained model for research use at [redacted URL].

Nonlinear model order reduction has opened the door to parameter optimization and uncertainty quantification in complex physics problems governed by nonlinear equations. In particular, the computational cost of solving these equations can be reduced by means of local reduced-order bases. This article examines the benefits of a physics-informed cluster analysis for the construction of cluster-specific reduced-order bases. We illustrate that the choice of the dissimilarity measure for clustering is fundamental and highly affects the performances of the local reduced-order bases. It is shown that clustering with an angle-based dissimilarity on simulation data efficiently decreases the intra-cluster Kolmogorov N-width. Additionally, an a priori efficiency criterion is introduced to assess the relevance of a ROM-net, a methodology for the reduction of nonlinear physics problems introduced in our previous work in [T. Daniel, F. Casenave, N. Akkari, D. Ryckelynck, Model order reduction assisted by deep neural networks (ROM-net), Advanced Modeling and Simulation in Engineering Sciences 7 (16), 2020]. This criterion also provides engineers with a very practical method for ROM-nets' hyperparameters calibration under constrained computational costs for the training phase. On five different physics problems, our physics-informed clustering strategy significantly outperforms classic strategies for the construction of local reduced-order bases in terms of projection errors.

The scaling laws and extraordinary performance of large foundation models motivate the development and utilization of such models in biomedicine. However, despite early promising results on some biomedical benchmarks, there are still major challenges that need to be addressed before these models can be used in real-world clinics. Frontier general-domain models such as GPT-4V still have significant performance gaps in multimodal biomedical applications. More importantly, less-acknowledged pragmatic issues, including accessibility, model cost, and tedious manual evaluation make it hard for clinicians to use state-of-the-art large models directly on private patient data. Here, we explore training open-source small multimodal models (SMMs) to bridge competency gaps for unmet clinical needs in radiology. To maximize data efficiency, we adopt a modular approach by incorporating state-of-the-art pre-trained models for image and text modalities, and focusing on training a lightweight adapter to ground each modality to the text embedding space, as exemplified by LLaVA-Med. For training, we assemble a large dataset of over 697 thousand radiology image-text pairs. For evaluation, we propose CheXprompt, a GPT-4-based metric for factuality evaluation, and demonstrate its parity with expert evaluation. For best practice, we conduct a systematic ablation study on various choices in data engineering and multimodal training. The resulting LlaVA-Rad (7B) model attains state-of-the-art results on standard radiology tasks such as report generation and cross-modal retrieval, even outperforming much larger models such as GPT-4V and Med-PaLM M (84B). The inference of LlaVA-Rad is fast and can be performed on a single V100 GPU in private settings, offering a promising state-of-the-art tool for real-world clinical applications.

Spider webs are incredible biological structures, comprising thin but strong silk filament and arranged into complex hierarchical architectures with striking mechanical properties (e.g., lightweight but high strength, achieving diverse mechanical responses). While simple 2D orb webs can easily be mimicked, the modeling and synthesis of 3D-based web structures remain challenging, partly due to the rich set of design features. Here we provide a detailed analysis of the heterogenous graph structures of spider webs, and use deep learning as a way to model and then synthesize artificial, bio-inspired 3D web structures. The generative AI models are conditioned based on key geometric parameters (including average edge length, number of nodes, average node degree, and others). To identify graph construction principles, we use inductive representation sampling of large experimentally determined spider web graphs, to yield a dataset that is used to train three conditional generative models: 1) An analog diffusion model inspired by nonequilibrium thermodynamics, with sparse neighbor representation, 2) a discrete diffusion model with full neighbor representation, and 3) an autoregressive transformer architecture with full neighbor representation. All three models are scalable, produce complex, de novo bio-inspired spider web mimics, and successfully construct graphs that meet the design objectives. We further propose algorithm that assembles web samples produced by the generative models into larger-scale structures based on a series of geometric design targets, including helical and parametric shapes, mimicking, and extending natural design principles towards integration with diverging engineering objectives. Several webs are manufactured using 3D printing and tested to assess mechanical properties.

In the realm of time series forecasting (TSF), it is imperative for models to adeptly discern and distill hidden patterns within historical time series data to forecast future states. Transformer-based models exhibit formidable efficacy in TSF, primarily attributed to their advantage in apprehending these patterns. However, the quadratic complexity of the Transformer leads to low computational efficiency and high costs, which somewhat hinders the deployment of the TSF model in real-world scenarios. Recently, Mamba, a selective state space model, has gained traction due to its ability to process dependencies in sequences while maintaining near-linear complexity. For TSF tasks, these characteristics enable Mamba to comprehend hidden patterns as the Transformer and reduce computational overhead compared to the Transformer. Therefore, we propose a Mamba-based model named Simple-Mamba (S-Mamba) for TSF. Specifically, we tokenize the time points of each variate autonomously via a linear layer. A bidirectional Mamba layer is utilized to extract inter-variate correlations and a Feed-Forward Network is set to learn temporal dependencies. Finally, the generation of forecast outcomes through a linear mapping layer. Experiments on thirteen public datasets prove that S-Mamba maintains low computational overhead and achieves leading performance. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments to explore Mamba's potential in TSF tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/wzhwzhwzh0921/S-D-Mamba.

Recent studies have shown that large language models' (LLMs) mathematical problem-solving capabilities can be enhanced by integrating external tools, such as code interpreters, and employing multi-turn Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning. While current methods focus on synthetic data generation and Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT), this paper studies the complementary direct preference learning approach to further improve model performance. However, existing direct preference learning algorithms are originally designed for the single-turn chat task, and do not fully address the complexities of multi-turn reasoning and external tool integration required for tool-integrated mathematical reasoning tasks. To fill in this gap, we introduce a multi-turn direct preference learning framework, tailored for this context, that leverages feedback from code interpreters and optimizes trajectory-level preferences. This framework includes multi-turn DPO and multi-turn KTO as specific implementations. The effectiveness of our framework is validated through training of various language models using an augmented prompt set from the GSM8K and MATH datasets. Our results demonstrate substantial improvements: a supervised fine-tuned Gemma-1.1-it-7B model's performance increased from 77.5% to 83.9% on GSM8K and from 46.1% to 51.2% on MATH. Similarly, a Gemma-2-it-9B model improved from 84.1% to 86.3% on GSM8K and from 51.0% to 54.5% on MATH.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

Time series models face significant challenges in scaling to handle large and complex datasets, akin to the scaling achieved by large language models (LLMs). The unique characteristics of time series data and the computational demands of model scaling necessitate innovative approaches. While researchers have explored various architectures such as Transformers, LSTMs, and GRUs to address these challenges, we propose a novel solution using RWKV-7, which incorporates meta-learning into its state update mechanism. By integrating RWKV-7's time mix and channel mix components into the transformer-based time series model Timer, we achieve a substantial performance improvement of approximately 1.13 to 43.3x and a 4.5x reduction in training time with 1/23 parameters, all while utilizing fewer parameters. Our code and model weights are publicly available for further research and development at https://github.com/Alic-Li/BlackGoose_Rimer.

As the demand for high-quality data in model training grows, researchers and developers are increasingly generating synthetic data to tune and train LLMs. A common assumption about synthetic data is that sampling from instruct-tuned models is sufficient; however, these models struggle to produce diverse outputs-a key requirement for generalization. Despite various prompting methods, in this work we show that achieving meaningful diversity from instruct-tuned models remains challenging. In contrast, we find base models without post-training exhibit greater diversity, but are less capable at instruction following and hence of lower quality. Leveraging this insight, we propose Base-Refine (BARE), a synthetic data generation method that combines the diversity of base models with the quality of instruct-tuned models through a two-stage process. With minimal few-shot examples and curation, BARE generates diverse and high-quality datasets, improving downstream task performance. We show that fine-tuning with as few as 1,000 BARE-generated samples can reach performance comparable to the best similarly sized models on LiveCodeBench tasks. Furthermore, fine-tuning with BARE-generated data achieves a 101% improvement over instruct-only data on GSM8K and a 18.4% improvement over SOTA methods on RAFT.

Time series foundation models have shown impressive performance on a variety of tasks, across a wide range of domains, even in zero-shot settings. However, most of these models are designed to handle short univariate time series as an input. This limits their practical use, especially in domains such as healthcare with copious amounts of long and multivariate data with strong temporal and intra-variate dependencies. Our study bridges this gap by cataloging and systematically comparing various context expansion techniques from both language and time series domains, and introducing a novel compressive memory mechanism to allow encoder-only TSFMs to effectively model intra-variate dependencies. We demonstrate the benefits of our approach by imbuing MOMENT, a recent family of multi-task time series foundation models, with the multivariate context.

Selecting hyperparameters in deep learning greatly impacts its effectiveness but requires manual effort and expertise. Recent works show that Bayesian model selection with Laplace approximations can allow to optimize such hyperparameters just like standard neural network parameters using gradients and on the training data. However, estimating a single hyperparameter gradient requires a pass through the entire dataset, limiting the scalability of such algorithms. In this work, we overcome this issue by introducing lower bounds to the linearized Laplace approximation of the marginal likelihood. In contrast to previous estimators, these bounds are amenable to stochastic-gradient-based optimization and allow to trade off estimation accuracy against computational complexity. We derive them using the function-space form of the linearized Laplace, which can be estimated using the neural tangent kernel. Experimentally, we show that the estimators can significantly accelerate gradient-based hyperparameter optimization.

Existing fine-tuning methods either tune all parameters of the pre-trained model (full fine-tuning), which is not efficient, or only tune the last linear layer (linear probing), which suffers a significant accuracy drop compared to the full fine-tuning. In this paper, we propose a new parameter-efficient fine-tuning method termed as SSF, representing that researchers only need to Scale and Shift the deep Features extracted by a pre-trained model to catch up with the performance of full fine-tuning. In this way, SSF also surprisingly outperforms other parameter-efficient fine-tuning approaches even with a smaller number of tunable parameters. Furthermore, different from some existing parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods (e.g., Adapter or VPT) that introduce the extra parameters and computational cost in the training and inference stages, SSF only adds learnable parameters during the training stage, and these additional parameters can be merged into the original pre-trained model weights via re-parameterization in the inference phase. With the proposed SSF, our model obtains 2.46% (90.72% vs. 88.54%) and 11.48% (73.10% vs. 65.57%) performance improvement on FGVC and VTAB-1k in terms of Top-1 accuracy compared to the full fine-tuning but only fine-tuning about 0.3M parameters. We also conduct amounts of experiments in various model families (CNNs, Transformers, and MLPs) and datasets. Results on 26 image classification datasets in total and 3 robustness & out-of-distribution datasets show the effectiveness of SSF. Code is available at https://github.com/dongzelian/SSF.

In Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) and agent-based frameworks, the "Chain of Models" approach is widely used, where multiple specialized models work sequentially on distinct sub-tasks. This approach is effective but increases resource demands as each model must be deployed separately. Recent advancements attempt to address this by applying prompt tuning, which allows a shared base model to adapt to multiple tasks with minimal parameter changes. However, a key challenge remains: intermediate outputs, passed between models as plain text, require recomputation of hidden states (i.e., Key and Value (KV) states in Transformers) during inference. In this paper, we introduce FTHSS, a novel prompt-tuning method that enables models to share KV hidden states, eliminating redundant forward passes and reducing KV cache storage. By modifying input and attention masks during training, FTHSS allows models to effectively utilize KV hidden states from prior models in both single- and multi-round scenarios. Empirical results on four tasks show that FTHSS matches the performance of traditional model chains while improving inference efficiency.

We study recent research advances that improve large language models through efficient pre-training and scaling, and open datasets and tools. We combine these advances to introduce Cerebras-GPT, a family of open compute-optimal language models scaled from 111M to 13B parameters. We train Cerebras-GPT models on the Eleuther Pile dataset following DeepMind Chinchilla scaling rules for efficient pre-training (highest accuracy for a given compute budget). We characterize the predictable power-law scaling and compare Cerebras-GPT with other publicly-available models to show all Cerebras-GPT models have state-of-the-art training efficiency on both pre-training and downstream objectives. We describe our learnings including how Maximal Update Parameterization (muP) can further improve large model scaling, improving accuracy and hyperparameter predictability at scale. We release our pre-trained models and code, making this paper the first open and reproducible work comparing compute-optimal model scaling to models trained on fixed dataset sizes. Cerebras-GPT models are available on HuggingFace: https://huggingface.co/cerebras.

The aerodynamic coefficients of aircrafts are significantly impacted by its geometry, especially when the angle of attack (AoA) is large. In the field of aerodynamics, traditional polynomial-based parameterization uses as few parameters as possible to describe the geometry of an airfoil. However, because the 3D geometry of a wing is more complicated than the 2D airfoil, polynomial-based parameterizations have difficulty in accurately representing the entire shape of a wing in 3D space. Existing deep learning-based methods can extract massive latent neural representations for the shape of 2D airfoils or 2D slices of wings. Recent studies highlight that directly taking geometric features as inputs to the neural networks can improve the accuracy of predicted aerodynamic coefficients. Motivated by geometry theory, we propose to incorporate Riemannian geometric features for learning Coefficient of Pressure (CP) distributions on wing surfaces. Our method calculates geometric features (Riemannian metric, connection, and curvature) and further inputs the geometric features, coordinates and flight conditions into a deep learning model to predict the CP distribution. Experimental results show that our method, compared to state-of-the-art Deep Attention Network (DAN), reduces the predicted mean square error (MSE) of CP by an average of 8.41% for the DLR-F11 aircraft test set.

This work explores the in-context learning capabilities of State Space Models (SSMs) and presents, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretical explanation of a possible underlying mechanism. We introduce a novel weight construction for SSMs, enabling them to predict the next state of any dynamical system after observing previous states without parameter fine-tuning. This is accomplished by extending the HiPPO framework to demonstrate that continuous SSMs can approximate the derivative of any input signal. Specifically, we find an explicit weight construction for continuous SSMs and provide an asymptotic error bound on the derivative approximation. The discretization of this continuous SSM subsequently yields a discrete SSM that predicts the next state. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our parameterization empirically. This work should be an initial step toward understanding how sequence models based on SSMs learn in context.

The existence of a plethora of language models makes the problem of selecting the best one for a custom task challenging. Most state-of-the-art methods leverage transformer-based models (e.g., BERT) or their variants. Training such models and exploring their hyperparameter space, however, is computationally expensive. Prior work proposes several neural architecture search (NAS) methods that employ performance predictors (e.g., surrogate models) to address this issue; however, analysis has been limited to homogeneous models that use fixed dimensionality throughout the network. This leads to sub-optimal architectures. To address this limitation, we propose a suite of heterogeneous and flexible models, namely FlexiBERT, that have varied encoder layers with a diverse set of possible operations and different hidden dimensions. For better-posed surrogate modeling in this expanded design space, we propose a new graph-similarity-based embedding scheme. We also propose a novel NAS policy, called BOSHNAS, that leverages this new scheme, Bayesian modeling, and second-order optimization, to quickly train and use a neural surrogate model to converge to the optimal architecture. A comprehensive set of experiments shows that the proposed policy, when applied to the FlexiBERT design space, pushes the performance frontier upwards compared to traditional models. FlexiBERT-Mini, one of our proposed models, has 3% fewer parameters than BERT-Mini and achieves 8.9% higher GLUE score. A FlexiBERT model with equivalent performance as the best homogeneous model achieves 2.6x smaller size. FlexiBERT-Large, another proposed model, achieves state-of-the-art results, outperforming the baseline models by at least 5.7% on the GLUE benchmark.

We consider the problem of global optimization with noisy zeroth order oracles - a well-motivated problem useful for various applications ranging from hyper-parameter tuning for deep learning to new material design. Existing work relies on Gaussian processes or other non-parametric family, which suffers from the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm GO-UCB that leverages a parametric family of functions (e.g., neural networks) instead. Under a realizable assumption and a few other mild geometric conditions, we show that GO-UCB achieves a cumulative regret of O(T) where T is the time horizon. At the core of GO-UCB is a carefully designed uncertainty set over parameters based on gradients that allows optimistic exploration. Synthetic and real-world experiments illustrate GO-UCB works better than Bayesian optimization approaches in high dimensional cases, even if the model is misspecified.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

In this paper, we investigate the underlying factors that potentially enhance the mathematical reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). We argue that the data scaling law for math reasoning capabilities in modern LLMs is far from being saturated, highlighting how the model's quality improves with increases in data quantity. To support this claim, we introduce the Skywork-Math model series, supervised fine-tuned (SFT) on common 7B LLMs using our proposed 2.5M-instance Skywork-MathQA dataset. Skywork-Math 7B has achieved impressive accuracies of 51.2% on the competition-level MATH benchmark and 83.9% on the GSM8K benchmark using only SFT data, outperforming an early version of GPT-4 on MATH. The superior performance of Skywork-Math models contributes to our novel two-stage data synthesis and model SFT pipelines, which include three different augmentation methods and a diverse seed problem set, ensuring both the quantity and quality of Skywork-MathQA dataset across varying difficulty levels. Most importantly, we provide several practical takeaways to enhance math reasoning abilities in LLMs for both research and industry applications.

In many neural networks, different values of the parameters may result in the same loss value. Parameter space symmetries are loss-invariant transformations that change the model parameters. Teleportation applies such transformations to accelerate optimization. However, the exact mechanism behind this algorithm's success is not well understood. In this paper, we show that teleportation not only speeds up optimization in the short-term, but gives overall faster time to convergence. Additionally, teleporting to minima with different curvatures improves generalization, which suggests a connection between the curvature of the minimum and generalization ability. Finally, we show that integrating teleportation into a wide range of optimization algorithms and optimization-based meta-learning improves convergence. Our results showcase the versatility of teleportation and demonstrate the potential of incorporating symmetry in optimization.

While the general machine learning (ML) community has benefited from public datasets, tasks, and models, the progress of ML in healthcare has been hampered by a lack of such shared assets. The success of foundation models creates new challenges for healthcare ML by requiring access to shared pretrained models to validate performance benefits. We help address these challenges through three contributions. First, we publish a new dataset, EHRSHOT, which contains deidentified structured data from the electronic health records (EHRs) of 6,739 patients from Stanford Medicine. Unlike MIMIC-III/IV and other popular EHR datasets, EHRSHOT is longitudinal and not restricted to ICU/ED patients. Second, we publish the weights of CLMBR-T-base, a 141M parameter clinical foundation model pretrained on the structured EHR data of 2.57M patients. We are one of the first to fully release such a model for coded EHR data; in contrast, most prior models released for clinical data (e.g. GatorTron, ClinicalBERT) only work with unstructured text and cannot process the rich, structured data within an EHR. We provide an end-to-end pipeline for the community to validate and build upon its performance. Third, we define 15 few-shot clinical prediction tasks, enabling evaluation of foundation models on benefits such as sample efficiency and task adaptation. Our model and dataset are available via a research data use agreement from the Stanford AIMI Center. Code to reproduce our results are available at our Github repo: https://github.com/som-shahlab/ehrshot-benchmark

Integer sequences are of central importance to the modeling of concepts admitting complete finitary descriptions. We introduce a novel view on the learning of such concepts and lay down a set of benchmarking tasks aimed at conceptual understanding by machine learning models. These tasks indirectly assess model ability to abstract, and challenge them to reason both interpolatively and extrapolatively from the knowledge gained by observing representative examples. To further aid research in knowledge representation and reasoning, we present FACT, the Finitary Abstraction Comprehension Toolkit. The toolkit surrounds a large dataset of integer sequences comprising both organic and synthetic entries, a library for data pre-processing and generation, a set of model performance evaluation tools, and a collection of baseline model implementations, enabling the making of the future advancements with ease.

Fine-tuning large pre-trained models on downstream tasks has been adopted in a variety of domains recently. However, it is costly to update the entire parameter set of large pre-trained models. Although recently proposed parameter-efficient transfer learning (PETL) techniques allow updating a small subset of parameters (e.g. only using 2% of parameters) inside a pre-trained backbone network for a new task, they only reduce the training memory requirement by up to 30%. This is because the gradient computation for the trainable parameters still requires backpropagation through the large pre-trained backbone model. To address this, we propose Ladder Side-Tuning (LST), a new PETL technique that can reduce training memory requirements by more substantial amounts. Unlike existing parameter-efficient methods that insert additional parameters inside backbone networks, we train a ladder side network, a small and separate network that takes intermediate activations as input via shortcut connections (called ladders) from backbone networks and makes predictions. LST has significantly lower memory requirements than previous methods, because it does not require backpropagation through the backbone network, but instead only through the side network and ladder connections. We evaluate our method with various models (T5 and CLIP-T5) on both NLP (GLUE) and vision-and-language (VQA, GQA, NLVR2 , MSCOCO) tasks. LST saves 69% of the memory costs to fine-tune the whole network, while other methods only save 26% of that in similar parameter usages (hence, 2.7x more memory savings). Moreover, LST achieves higher accuracy than Adapter and LoRA in a low-memory regime. To further show the advantage of this better memory efficiency, we also apply LST to larger T5 models, attaining better GLUE performance than full fine-tuning and other PETL methods. The accuracy-efficiency trade-off also holds on VL tasks.

We present a data-driven approach for forecasting global weather using graph neural networks. The system learns to step forward the current 3D atmospheric state by six hours, and multiple steps are chained together to produce skillful forecasts going out several days into the future. The underlying model is trained on reanalysis data from ERA5 or forecast data from GFS. Test performance on metrics such as Z500 (geopotential height) and T850 (temperature) improves upon previous data-driven approaches and is comparable to operational, full-resolution, physical models from GFS and ECMWF, at least when evaluated on 1-degree scales and when using reanalysis initial conditions. We also show results from connecting this data-driven model to live, operational forecasts from GFS.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Due to the cost of developing and training deep learning models from scratch, machine learning engineers have begun to reuse pre-trained models (PTMs) and fine-tune them for downstream tasks. PTM registries known as "model hubs" support engineers in distributing and reusing deep learning models. PTM packages include pre-trained weights, documentation, model architectures, datasets, and metadata. Mining the information in PTM packages will enable the discovery of engineering phenomena and tools to support software engineers. However, accessing this information is difficult - there are many PTM registries, and both the registries and the individual packages may have rate limiting for accessing the data. We present an open-source dataset, PTMTorrent, to facilitate the evaluation and understanding of PTM packages. This paper describes the creation, structure, usage, and limitations of the dataset. The dataset includes a snapshot of 5 model hubs and a total of 15,913 PTM packages. These packages are represented in a uniform data schema for cross-hub mining. We describe prior uses of this data and suggest research opportunities for mining using our dataset. The PTMTorrent dataset (v1) is available at: https://app.globus.org/file-manager?origin_id=55e17a6e-9d8f-11ed-a2a2-8383522b48d9&origin_path=%2F~%2F. Our dataset generation tools are available on GitHub: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7570357.

We introduce MOMENT, a family of open-source foundation models for general-purpose time-series analysis. Pre-training large models on time-series data is challenging due to (1) the absence of a large and cohesive public time-series repository, and (2) diverse time-series characteristics which make multi-dataset training onerous. Additionally, (3) experimental benchmarks to evaluate these models, especially in scenarios with limited resources, time, and supervision, are still in their nascent stages. To address these challenges, we compile a large and diverse collection of public time-series, called the Time-series Pile, and systematically tackle time-series-specific challenges to unlock large-scale multi-dataset pre-training. Finally, we build on recent work to design a benchmark to evaluate time-series foundation models on diverse tasks and datasets in limited supervision settings. Experiments on this benchmark demonstrate the effectiveness of our pre-trained models with minimal data and task-specific fine-tuning. Finally, we present several interesting empirical observations about large pre-trained time-series models. Our code is available anonymously at anonymous.4open.science/r/BETT-773F/.

Modern foundation models rely heavily on using scaling laws to guide crucial training decisions. Researchers often extrapolate the optimal architecture and hyper parameters settings from smaller training runs by describing the relationship between, loss, or task performance, and scale. All components of this process vary, from the specific equation being fit, to the training setup, to the optimization method. Each of these factors may affect the fitted law, and therefore, the conclusions of a given study. We discuss discrepancies in the conclusions that several prior works reach, on questions such as the optimal token to parameter ratio. We augment this discussion with our own analysis of the critical impact that changes in specific details may effect in a scaling study, and the resulting altered conclusions. Additionally, we survey over 50 papers that study scaling trends: while 45 of these papers quantify these trends using a power law, most under-report crucial details needed to reproduce their findings. To mitigate this, we we propose a checklist for authors to consider while contributing to scaling law research.

Fine-tuning large pre-trained foundation models, such as the 175B GPT-3, has attracted more attention for downstream tasks recently. While parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods have been proposed and proven effective without retraining all model parameters, their performance is limited by the capacity of incremental modules, especially under constrained parameter budgets. \\ To overcome this challenge, we propose CapaBoost, a simple yet effective strategy that enhances model capacity by leveraging low-rank updates through parallel weight modules in target layers. By applying static random masks to the shared weight matrix, CapaBoost constructs a diverse set of weight matrices, effectively increasing the rank of incremental weights without adding parameters. Notably, our approach can be seamlessly integrated into various existing parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods. We extensively validate the efficacy of CapaBoost through experiments on diverse downstream tasks, including natural language understanding, question answering, and image classification. Our results demonstrate significant improvements over baselines, without incurring additional computation or storage costs. Our code is available at https://github.com/LINs-lab/CapaBoost.

We present SmolTulu-1.7b-Instruct, referenced in this report as SmolTulu-DPO-1130, an instruction-tuned language model that adapts AllenAI's Tulu 3 post-training pipeline to enhance Huggingface's SmolLM2-1.7B base model. Through comprehensive empirical analysis using a 135M parameter model, we demonstrate that the relationship between learning rate and batch size significantly impacts model performance in a task-dependent manner. Our findings reveal a clear split: reasoning tasks like ARC and GSM8K benefit from higher learning rate to batch size ratios, while pattern recognition tasks such as HellaSwag and IFEval show optimal performance with lower ratios. These insights informed the development of SmolTulu, which achieves state-of-the-art performance among sub-2B parameter models on instruction following, scoring 67.7% on IFEval (Delta11%), and mathematical reasoning with 51.6% on GSM8K (Delta3.4%), with an alternate version achieving scoring 57.1% on ARC (Delta5.4%). We release our model, training recipes, and ablation studies to facilitate further research in efficient model alignment, demonstrating that careful adaptation of optimization dynamics can help bridge the capability gap between small and large language models.

Practitioners frequently aim to infer an unobserved population trajectory using sample snapshots at multiple time points. For instance, in single-cell sequencing, scientists would like to learn how gene expression evolves over time. But sequencing any cell destroys that cell. So we cannot access any cell's full trajectory, but we can access snapshot samples from many cells. Stochastic differential equations are commonly used to analyze systems with full individual-trajectory access; since here we have only sample snapshots, these methods are inapplicable. The deep learning community has recently explored using Schr\"odinger bridges (SBs) and their extensions to estimate these dynamics. However, these methods either (1) interpolate between just two time points or (2) require a single fixed reference dynamic within the SB, which is often just set to be Brownian motion. But learning piecewise from adjacent time points can fail to capture long-term dependencies. And practitioners are typically able to specify a model class for the reference dynamic but not the exact values of the parameters within it. So we propose a new method that (1) learns the unobserved trajectories from sample snapshots across multiple time points and (2) requires specification only of a class of reference dynamics, not a single fixed one. In particular, we suggest an iterative projection method inspired by Schr\"odinger bridges; we alternate between learning a piecewise SB on the unobserved trajectories and using the learned SB to refine our best guess for the dynamics within the reference class. We demonstrate the advantages of our method via a well-known simulated parametric model from ecology, simulated and real data from systems biology, and real motion-capture data.

Many state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms rely on model-based optimizers that learn surrogate models of the target function to guide the search. Gaussian processes are the de facto surrogate model due to their ability to capture uncertainty but they make strong assumptions about the observation noise, which might not be warranted in practice. In this work, we propose to leverage conformalized quantile regression which makes minimal assumptions about the observation noise and, as a result, models the target function in a more realistic and robust fashion which translates to quicker HPO convergence on empirical benchmarks. To apply our method in a multi-fidelity setting, we propose a simple, yet effective, technique that aggregates observed results across different resource levels and outperforms conventional methods across many empirical tasks.

We approach designing a state-space model for deep learning applications through its dual representation, the transfer function, and uncover a highly efficient sequence parallel inference algorithm that is state-free: unlike other proposed algorithms, state-free inference does not incur any significant memory or computational cost with an increase in state size. We achieve this using properties of the proposed frequency domain transfer function parametrization, which enables direct computation of its corresponding convolutional kernel's spectrum via a single Fast Fourier Transform. Our experimental results across multiple sequence lengths and state sizes illustrates, on average, a 35% training speed improvement over S4 layers -- parametrized in time-domain -- on the Long Range Arena benchmark, while delivering state-of-the-art downstream performances over other attention-free approaches. Moreover, we report improved perplexity in language modeling over a long convolutional Hyena baseline, by simply introducing our transfer function parametrization. Our code is available at https://github.com/ruke1ire/RTF.

The past decade has witnessed significant advances in time series modeling with deep learning. While achieving state-of-the-art results, the best-performing architectures vary highly across applications and domains. Meanwhile, for natural language processing, the Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) has demonstrated impressive performance via training one general-purpose model across various textual datasets. It is intriguing to explore whether GPT-type architectures can be effective for time series, capturing the intrinsic dynamic attributes and leading to significant accuracy improvements. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, TEMPO, that can effectively learn time series representations. We focus on utilizing two essential inductive biases of the time series task for pre-trained models: (i) decomposition of the complex interaction between trend, seasonal and residual components; and (ii) introducing the selection-based prompts to facilitate distribution adaptation in non-stationary time series. TEMPO expands the capability for dynamically modeling real-world temporal phenomena from data within diverse domains. Our experiments demonstrate the superior performance of TEMPO over state-of-the-art methods on a number of time series benchmark datasets. This performance gain is observed not only in standard supervised learning settings but also in scenarios involving previously unseen datasets as well as in scenarios with multi-modal inputs. This compelling finding highlights TEMPO's potential to constitute a foundational model-building framework.

Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) has recently emerged as a promising approach for tackling the robustness challenge under distribution shifts. However, the lack of consistent settings and systematic studies in prior literature hinders thorough assessments of existing methods. To address this issue, we present TTAB, a test-time adaptation benchmark that encompasses ten state-of-the-art algorithms, a diverse array of distribution shifts, and two evaluation protocols. Through extensive experiments, our benchmark reveals three common pitfalls in prior efforts. First, selecting appropriate hyper-parameters, especially for model selection, is exceedingly difficult due to online batch dependency. Second, the effectiveness of TTA varies greatly depending on the quality and properties of the model being adapted. Third, even under optimal algorithmic conditions, none of the existing methods are capable of addressing all common types of distribution shifts. Our findings underscore the need for future research in the field to conduct rigorous evaluations on a broader set of models and shifts, and to re-examine the assumptions behind the empirical success of TTA. Our code is available at https://github.com/lins-lab/ttab.

We introduce PaLM 2, a new state-of-the-art language model that has better multilingual and reasoning capabilities and is more compute-efficient than its predecessor PaLM. PaLM 2 is a Transformer-based model trained using a mixture of objectives. Through extensive evaluations on English and multilingual language, and reasoning tasks, we demonstrate that PaLM 2 has significantly improved quality on downstream tasks across different model sizes, while simultaneously exhibiting faster and more efficient inference compared to PaLM. This improved efficiency enables broader deployment while also allowing the model to respond faster, for a more natural pace of interaction. PaLM 2 demonstrates robust reasoning capabilities exemplified by large improvements over PaLM on BIG-Bench and other reasoning tasks. PaLM 2 exhibits stable performance on a suite of responsible AI evaluations, and enables inference-time control over toxicity without additional overhead or impact on other capabilities. Overall, PaLM 2 achieves state-of-the-art performance across a diverse set of tasks and capabilities. When discussing the PaLM 2 family, it is important to distinguish between pre-trained models (of various sizes), fine-tuned variants of these models, and the user-facing products that use these models. In particular, user-facing products typically include additional pre- and post-processing steps. Additionally, the underlying models may evolve over time. Therefore, one should not expect the performance of user-facing products to exactly match the results reported in this report.

State-space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modelling time-series data. Consequently, SSMs are ubiquitously applied in areas such as engineering, econometrics and epidemiology. In this paper we provide a fast approach for approximate Bayesian inference in SSMs using the tools of deep learning and variational inference.

The recent progress of AI can be largely attributed to large language models (LLMs). However, their escalating memory requirements introduce challenges for machine learning (ML) researchers and engineers. Addressing this requires developers to partition a large model to distribute it across multiple GPUs or TPUs. This necessitates considerable coding and intricate configuration efforts with existing model parallel tools, such as Megatron-LM, DeepSpeed, and Alpa. These tools require users' expertise in machine learning systems (MLSys), creating a bottleneck in LLM development, particularly for developers without MLSys background. In this work, we present Redco, a lightweight and user-friendly tool crafted to automate distributed training and inference for LLMs, as well as to simplify ML pipeline development. The design of Redco emphasizes two key aspects. Firstly, to automate model parallism, our study identifies two straightforward rules to generate tensor parallel strategies for any given LLM. Integrating these rules into Redco facilitates effortless distributed LLM training and inference, eliminating the need of additional coding or complex configurations. We demonstrate the effectiveness by applying Redco on a set of LLM architectures, such as GPT-J, LLaMA, T5, and OPT, up to the size of 66B. Secondly, we propose a mechanism that allows for the customization of diverse ML pipelines through the definition of merely three functions, eliminating redundant and formulaic code like multi-host related processing. This mechanism proves adaptable across a spectrum of ML algorithms, from foundational language modeling to complex algorithms like meta-learning and reinforcement learning. Consequently, Redco implementations exhibit much fewer code lines compared to their official counterparts.

The industry is rich in cases when we are required to make forecasting for large amounts of time series at once. However, we might be in a situation where we can not afford to train a separate model for each of them. Such issue in time series modeling remains without due attention. The remedy for this setting is the establishment of a foundation model. Such a model is expected to work in zero-shot and few-shot regimes. However, what should we take as a training dataset for such kind of model? Witnessing the benefits from the enrichment of NLP datasets with artificially-generated data, we might want to adopt their experience for time series. In contrast to natural language, the process of generation of synthetic time series data is even more favorable because it provides full control of series patterns, time horizons, and number of samples. In this work, we consider the essential question if it is advantageous to train a foundation model on synthetic data or it is better to utilize only a limited number of real-life examples. Our experiments are conducted only for regular time series and speak in favor of leveraging solely the real time series. Moreover, the choice of the proper source dataset strongly influences the performance during inference. When provided access even to a limited quantity of short time series data, employing it within a supervised framework yields more favorable results than training on a larger volume of synthetic data. The code for our experiments is publicly available on Github https://github.com/sb-ai-lab/synthesize_or_not.

Lattices are architected metamaterials whose properties strongly depend on their geometrical design. The analogy between lattices and graphs enables the use of graph neural networks (GNNs) as a faster surrogate model compared to traditional methods such as finite element modelling. In this work, we generate a big dataset of structure-property relationships for strut-based lattices. The dataset is made available to the community which can fuel the development of methods anchored in physical principles for the fitting of fourth-order tensors. In addition, we present a higher-order GNN model trained on this dataset. The key features of the model are (i) SE(3) equivariance, and (ii) consistency with the thermodynamic law of conservation of energy. We compare the model to non-equivariant models based on a number of error metrics and demonstrate its benefits in terms of predictive performance and reduced training requirements. Finally, we demonstrate an example application of the model to an architected material design task. The methods which we developed are applicable to fourth-order tensors beyond elasticity such as piezo-optical tensor etc.

Parameter-shared pre-trained language models (PLMs) have emerged as a successful approach in resource-constrained environments, enabling substantial reductions in model storage and memory costs without significant performance compromise. However, it is important to note that parameter sharing does not alleviate computational burdens associated with inference, thus impeding its practicality in situations characterized by limited stringent latency requirements or computational resources. Building upon neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs), we introduce a straightforward technique to enhance the inference efficiency of parameter-shared PLMs. Additionally, we propose a simple pre-training technique that leads to fully or partially shared models capable of achieving even greater inference acceleration. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods on both autoregressive and autoencoding PLMs, providing novel insights into more efficient utilization of parameter-shared models in resource-constrained settings.

We introduce a new class of spatially stochastic physics and data informed deep latent models for parametric partial differential equations (PDEs) which operate through scalable variational neural processes. We achieve this by assigning probability measures to the spatial domain, which allows us to treat collocation grids probabilistically as random variables to be marginalised out. Adapting this spatial statistics view, we solve forward and inverse problems for parametric PDEs in a way that leads to the construction of Gaussian process models of solution fields. The implementation of these random grids poses a unique set of challenges for inverse physics informed deep learning frameworks and we propose a new architecture called Grid Invariant Convolutional Networks (GICNets) to overcome these challenges. We further show how to incorporate noisy data in a principled manner into our physics informed model to improve predictions for problems where data may be available but whose measurement location does not coincide with any fixed mesh or grid. The proposed method is tested on a nonlinear Poisson problem, Burgers equation, and Navier-Stokes equations, and we provide extensive numerical comparisons. We demonstrate significant computational advantages over current physics informed neural learning methods for parametric PDEs while improving the predictive capabilities and flexibility of these models.

Selective state space models (SSM), such as Mamba, have gained prominence for their effectiveness in modeling sequential data. Despite their outstanding empirical performance, a comprehensive theoretical understanding of deep selective SSM remains elusive, hindering their further development and adoption for applications that need high fidelity. In this paper, we investigate the dynamical properties of tokens in a pre-trained Mamba model. In particular, we derive the dynamical system governing the continuous-time limit of the Mamba model and characterize the asymptotic behavior of its solutions. In the one-dimensional case, we prove that only one of the following two scenarios happens: either all tokens converge to zero, or all tokens diverge to infinity. We provide criteria based on model parameters to determine when each scenario occurs. For the convergent scenario, we empirically verify that this scenario negatively impacts the model's performance. For the divergent scenario, we prove that different tokens will diverge to infinity at different rates, thereby contributing unequally to the updates during model training. Based on these investigations, we propose two refinements for the model: excluding the convergent scenario and reordering tokens based on their importance scores, both aimed at improving practical performance. Our experimental results validate these refinements, offering insights into enhancing Mamba's effectiveness in real-world applications.

The impressive capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) across diverse tasks are now well-established, yet their effective deployment necessitates careful hyperparameter optimization. Through extensive empirical studies involving grid searches across diverse configurations, we discover universal scaling laws governing these hyperparameters: optimal learning rate follows a power-law relationship with both model parameters and data sizes, while optimal batch size scales primarily with data sizes. Our analysis reveals a convex optimization landscape for hyperparameters under fixed models and data size conditions. This convexity implies an optimal hyperparameter plateau. We contribute a universal, plug-and-play optimal hyperparameter tool for the community. Its estimated values on the test set are merely 0.07\% away from the globally optimal LLM performance found via an exhaustive search. These laws demonstrate remarkable robustness across variations in model sparsity, training data distribution, and model shape. To our best known, this is the first work that unifies different model shapes and structures, such as Mixture-of-Experts models and dense transformers, as well as establishes optimal hyperparameter scaling laws across diverse data distributions. This exhaustive optimization process demands substantial computational resources, utilizing nearly one million NVIDIA H800 GPU hours to train 3,700 LLMs of varying sizes and hyperparameters from scratch and consuming approximately 100 trillion tokens in total. To facilitate reproducibility and further research, we will progressively release all loss measurements and model checkpoints through our designated repository https://step-law.github.io/

Despite the rapid development of large language models (LLMs), a fundamental challenge persists: the lack of high-quality optimization modeling datasets hampers LLMs' robust modeling of practical optimization problems from natural language descriptions (NL). This data scarcity also contributes to the generalization difficulties experienced by learning-based methods. To address these challenges, we propose a scalable framework for synthesizing a high-quality dataset, named OptMATH. Starting from curated seed data with mathematical formulations (MF), this framework automatically generates problem data (PD) with controllable complexity. Then, a back-translation step is employed to obtain NL. To verify the correspondence between the NL and the PD, a forward modeling step followed by rejection sampling is used. The accepted pairs constitute the training part of OptMATH. Then a collection of rejected pairs is identified and further filtered. This collection serves as a new benchmark for optimization modeling, containing difficult instances whose lengths are much longer than these of NL4OPT and MAMO. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that models of various sizes (0.5B-32B parameters) trained on OptMATH achieve superior results on multiple modeling benchmarks, thereby validating the effectiveness and scalability of our approach. Our dataset is publicly available at https://github.com/AuroraLHL/OptMATH.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in complex reasoning tasks. However, existing approaches mainly rely on imitation learning and struggle to achieve effective test-time scaling. While reinforcement learning (RL) holds promise for enabling self-exploration and learning from feedback, recent attempts yield only modest improvements in complex reasoning. In this paper, we present T1 to scale RL by encouraging exploration and understand inference scaling. We first initialize the LLM using synthesized chain-of-thought data that integrates trial-and-error and self-verification. To scale RL training, we promote increased sampling diversity through oversampling. We further employ an entropy bonus as an auxiliary loss, alongside a dynamic anchor for regularization to facilitate reward optimization. We demonstrate that T1 with open LLMs as its base exhibits inference scaling behavior and achieves superior performance on challenging math reasoning benchmarks. For example, T1 with Qwen2.5-32B as the base model outperforms the recent Qwen QwQ-32B-Preview model on MATH500, AIME2024, and Omni-math-500. More importantly, we present a simple strategy to examine inference scaling, where increased inference budgets directly lead to T1's better performance without any additional verification. We will open-source the T1 models and the data used to train them at https://github.com/THUDM/T1.

Recent studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of LLM test-time scaling. However, existing approaches to incentivize LLMs' deep thinking abilities generally require large-scale data or significant training efforts. Meanwhile, it remains unclear how to improve the thinking abilities of less powerful base models. In this work, we introduce S^2R, an efficient framework that enhances LLM reasoning by teaching models to self-verify and self-correct during inference. Specifically, we first initialize LLMs with iterative self-verification and self-correction behaviors through supervised fine-tuning on carefully curated data. The self-verification and self-correction skills are then further strengthened by both outcome-level and process-level reinforcement learning, with minimized resource requirements, enabling the model to adaptively refine its reasoning process during inference. Our results demonstrate that, with only 3.1k self-verifying and self-correcting behavior initialization samples, Qwen2.5-math-7B achieves an accuracy improvement from 51.0\% to 81.6\%, outperforming models trained on an equivalent amount of long-CoT distilled data. Extensive experiments and analysis based on three base models across both in-domain and out-of-domain benchmarks validate the effectiveness of S^2R. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/NineAbyss/S2R.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Foundation models have emerged as a promising approach in time series forecasting (TSF). Existing approaches either fine-tune large language models (LLMs) or build large-scale time-series datasets to develop TSF foundation models. However, these methods face challenges due to the severe cross-domain gap or in-domain heterogeneity. In this paper, we explore a new road to building a TSF foundation model from rich and high-quality natural images, based on the intrinsic similarities between images and time series. To bridge the gap between the two domains, we reformulate the TSF task as an image reconstruction task, which is further processed by a visual masked autoencoder (MAE) self-supervised pre-trained on the ImageNet dataset. Surprisingly, without further adaptation in the time-series domain, the proposed VisionTS could achieve superior zero-shot forecasting performance compared to existing TSF foundation models. With minimal fine-tuning, VisionTS could further improve the forecasting and achieve state-of-the-art performance in most cases. These findings suggest that visual models could be a free lunch for TSF and highlight the potential for future cross-domain research between computer vision and TSF. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/Keytoyze/VisionTS.

The remarkable performance of the o1 model in complex reasoning demonstrates that test-time computing scaling can further unlock the model's potential, enabling powerful System-2 thinking. However, there is still a lack of comprehensive surveys for test-time computing scaling. We trace the concept of test-time computing back to System-1 models. In System-1 models, test-time computing addresses distribution shifts and improves robustness and generalization through parameter updating, input modification, representation editing, and output calibration. In System-2 models, it enhances the model's reasoning ability to solve complex problems through repeated sampling, self-correction, and tree search. We organize this survey according to the trend of System-1 to System-2 thinking, highlighting the key role of test-time computing in the transition from System-1 models to weak System-2 models, and then to strong System-2 models. We also point out a few possible future directions.

Seven years ago, researchers proposed a postprocessing method to equalize the error rates of a model across different demographic groups. The work launched hundreds of papers purporting to improve over the postprocessing baseline. We empirically evaluate these claims through thousands of model evaluations on several tabular datasets. We find that the fairness-accuracy Pareto frontier achieved by postprocessing contains all other methods we were feasibly able to evaluate. In doing so, we address two common methodological errors that have confounded previous observations. One relates to the comparison of methods with different unconstrained base models. The other concerns methods achieving different levels of constraint relaxation. At the heart of our study is a simple idea we call unprocessing that roughly corresponds to the inverse of postprocessing. Unprocessing allows for a direct comparison of methods using different underlying models and levels of relaxation.

Proof assistants like Lean have revolutionized mathematical proof verification, ensuring high accuracy and reliability. Although large language models (LLMs) show promise in mathematical reasoning, their advancement in formal theorem proving is hindered by a lack of training data. To address this issue, we introduce an approach to generate extensive Lean 4 proof data derived from high-school and undergraduate-level mathematical competition problems. This approach involves translating natural language problems into formal statements, filtering out low-quality statements, and generating proofs to create synthetic data. After fine-tuning the DeepSeekMath 7B model on this synthetic dataset, which comprises 8 million formal statements with proofs, our model achieved whole-proof generation accuracies of 46.3% with 64 samples and 52% cumulatively on the Lean 4 miniF2F test, surpassing the baseline GPT-4 at 23.0% with 64 samples and a tree search reinforcement learning method at 41.0%. Additionally, our model successfully proved 5 out of 148 problems in the Lean 4 Formalized International Mathematical Olympiad (FIMO) benchmark, while GPT-4 failed to prove any. These results demonstrate the potential of leveraging large-scale synthetic data to enhance theorem-proving capabilities in LLMs. Both the synthetic dataset and the model will be made available to facilitate further research in this promising field.

Applying a pre-trained large model to downstream tasks is prohibitive under resource-constrained conditions. Recent dominant approaches for addressing efficiency issues involve adding a few learnable parameters to the fixed backbone model. This strategy, however, leads to more challenges in loading large models for downstream fine-tuning with limited resources. In this paper, we propose a novel method for increasing the parameter efficiency of pre-trained models by introducing an intermediate pre-training stage. To this end, we first employ low-rank approximation to compress the original large model and then devise a feature distillation module and a weight perturbation regularization module. These modules are specifically designed to enhance the low-rank model. In particular, we update only the low-rank model while freezing the backbone parameters during pre-training. This allows for direct and efficient utilization of the low-rank model for downstream fine-tuning tasks. The proposed method achieves both efficiencies in terms of required parameters and computation time while maintaining comparable results with minimal modifications to the backbone architecture. Specifically, when applied to three vision-only and one vision-language Transformer models, our approach often demonstrates a merely sim0.6 point decrease in performance while reducing the original parameter size by 1/3 to 2/3.

Large Transformer models have been central to recent advances in natural language processing. The training and inference costs of these models, however, have grown rapidly and become prohibitively expensive. Here we aim to reduce the costs of Transformers by searching for a more efficient variant. Compared to previous approaches, our search is performed at a lower level, over the primitives that define a Transformer TensorFlow program. We identify an architecture, named Primer, that has a smaller training cost than the original Transformer and other variants for auto-regressive language modeling. Primer's improvements can be mostly attributed to two simple modifications: squaring ReLU activations and adding a depthwise convolution layer after each Q, K, and V projection in self-attention. Experiments show Primer's gains over Transformer increase as compute scale grows and follow a power law with respect to quality at optimal model sizes. We also verify empirically that Primer can be dropped into different codebases to significantly speed up training without additional tuning. For example, at a 500M parameter size, Primer improves the original T5 architecture on C4 auto-regressive language modeling, reducing the training cost by 4X. Furthermore, the reduced training cost means Primer needs much less compute to reach a target one-shot performance. For instance, in a 1.9B parameter configuration similar to GPT-3 XL, Primer uses 1/3 of the training compute to achieve the same one-shot performance as Transformer. We open source our models and several comparisons in T5 to help with reproducibility.

When considering a model architecture, there are several ways to reduce its memory footprint. Historically, popular approaches included selecting smaller architectures and creating sparse networks through pruning. More recently, randomized parameter-sharing (RPS) methods have gained traction for model compression at start of training. In this paper, we comprehensively assess the trade-off between memory and accuracy across RPS, pruning techniques, and building smaller models. Our findings demonstrate that RPS, which is both data and model-agnostic, consistently outperforms/matches smaller models and all moderately informed pruning strategies, such as MAG, SNIP, SYNFLOW, and GRASP, across the entire compression range. This advantage becomes particularly pronounced in higher compression scenarios. Notably, even when compared to highly informed pruning techniques like Lottery Ticket Rewinding (LTR), RPS exhibits superior performance in high compression settings. This points out inherent capacity advantage that RPS enjoys over sparse models. Theoretically, we establish RPS as a superior technique in terms of memory-efficient representation when compared to pruning for linear models. This paper argues in favor of paradigm shift towards RPS based models. During our rigorous evaluation of RPS, we identified issues in the state-of-the-art RPS technique ROAST, specifically regarding stability (ROAST's sensitivity to initialization hyperparameters, often leading to divergence) and Pareto-continuity (ROAST's inability to recover the accuracy of the original model at zero compression). We provably address both of these issues. We refer to the modified RPS, which incorporates our improvements, as STABLE-RPS.

The rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-3, PaLM, and Llama has significantly transformed natural language processing, showcasing remarkable capabilities in understanding and generating language. However, these models often struggle with tasks requiring complex reasoning, particularly in mathematical problem-solving, due in part to the scarcity of large-scale, high-quality, domain-specific datasets necessary for training sophisticated reasoning abilities. To address this limitation, we introduce Template-based Data Generation (TDG), a novel approach that leverages LLMs (GPT-4) to automatically generate parameterized meta-templates, which are then used to synthesize a vast array of high-quality problems and solutions. Leveraging TDG, we create TemplateMath Part I: TemplateGSM, a dataset comprising over 7 million synthetically generated grade school math problems--each accompanied by code-based and natural language solutions--with the potential to generate an effectively unlimited number more. This dataset alleviates the scarcity of large-scale mathematical datasets and serves as a valuable resource for pre-training, fine-tuning, and evaluating LLMs in mathematical reasoning. Our method not only enables the generation of virtually infinite data but also elevates data augmentation to a new level by using GPT-4 for meta-template generation, ensuring diverse and high-quality problem structures. The TemplateMath Part I: TemplateGSM dataset is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/math-ai/TemplateGSM. The code is available at https://github.com/iiis-ai/TemplateMath.

Recent studies have shown that making a model spend more time thinking through longer Chain of Thoughts (CoTs) enables it to gain significant improvements in complex reasoning tasks. While current researches continue to explore the benefits of increasing test-time compute by extending the CoT lengths of Large Language Models (LLMs), we are concerned about a potential issue hidden behind the current pursuit of test-time scaling: Would excessively scaling the CoT length actually bring adverse effects to a model's reasoning performance? Our explorations on mathematical reasoning tasks reveal an unexpected finding that scaling with longer CoTs can indeed impair the reasoning performance of LLMs in certain domains. Moreover, we discover that there exists an optimal scaled length distribution that differs across different domains. Based on these insights, we propose a Thinking-Optimal Scaling strategy. Our method first uses a small set of seed data with varying response length distributions to teach the model to adopt different reasoning efforts for deep thinking. Then, the model selects its shortest correct response under different reasoning efforts on additional problems for self-improvement. Our self-improved models built upon Qwen2.5-32B-Instruct outperform other distillation-based 32B o1-like models across various math benchmarks, and achieve performance on par with QwQ-32B-Preview.

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Towards this, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models estimated from the observed data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can access the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics introduced in the literature, and novel ones introduced in this work, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter tuning of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.

The lack of freely available standardized datasets represents an aggravating factor during the development and testing the performance of novel computational techniques in exposure assessment and dosimetry research. This hinders progress as researchers are required to generate numerical data (field, power and temperature distribution) anew using simulation software for each exposure scenario. Other than being time consuming, this approach is highly susceptible to errors that occur during the configuration of the electromagnetic model. To address this issue, in this paper, the limited available data on the incident power density and resultant maximum temperature rise on the skin surface considering various steady-state exposure scenarios at 10-90 GHz have been statistically modeled. The synthetic data have been sampled from the fitted statistical multivariate distribution with respect to predetermined dosimetric constraints. We thus present a comprehensive and open-source dataset compiled of the high-fidelity numerical data considering various exposures to a realistic source. Furthermore, different surrogate models for predicting maximum temperature rise on the skin surface were fitted based on the synthetic dataset. All surrogate models were tested on the originally available data where satisfactory predictive performance has been demonstrated. A simple technique of combining quadratic polynomial and tensor-product spline surrogates, each operating on its own cluster of data, has achieved the lowest mean absolute error of 0.058 {\deg}C. Therefore, overall experimental results indicate the validity of the proposed synthetic dataset.

Recent works have demonstrated reasonable success of representation learning in hypercomplex space. Specifically, "fully-connected layers with Quaternions" (4D hypercomplex numbers), which replace real-valued matrix multiplications in fully-connected layers with Hamilton products of Quaternions, both enjoy parameter savings with only 1/4 learnable parameters and achieve comparable performance in various applications. However, one key caveat is that hypercomplex space only exists at very few predefined dimensions (4D, 8D, and 16D). This restricts the flexibility of models that leverage hypercomplex multiplications. To this end, we propose parameterizing hypercomplex multiplications, allowing models to learn multiplication rules from data regardless of whether such rules are predefined. As a result, our method not only subsumes the Hamilton product, but also learns to operate on any arbitrary nD hypercomplex space, providing more architectural flexibility using arbitrarily 1/n learnable parameters compared with the fully-connected layer counterpart. Experiments of applications to the LSTM and Transformer models on natural language inference, machine translation, text style transfer, and subject verb agreement demonstrate architectural flexibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

The rapid development of AI systems has been greatly influenced by the emergence of foundation models. A common approach for targeted problems involves fine-tuning these pre-trained foundation models for specific target tasks, resulting in a rapid spread of models fine-tuned across a diverse array of tasks. This work focuses on the problem of merging multiple fine-tunings of the same foundation model derived from a spectrum of auxiliary tasks. We introduce a new simple method, Model Breadcrumbs, which consists of a sparsely defined set of weights that carve out a trajectory within the weight space of a pre-trained model, enhancing task performance when traversed. These breadcrumbs are constructed by subtracting the weights from a pre-trained model before and after fine-tuning, followed by a sparsification process that eliminates weight outliers and negligible perturbations. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of Model Breadcrumbs to simultaneously improve performance across multiple tasks. This contribution aligns with the evolving paradigm of updatable machine learning, reminiscent of the collaborative principles underlying open-source software development, fostering a community-driven effort to reliably update machine learning models. Our method is shown to be more efficient and unlike previous proposals does not require hyperparameter tuning for each new task added. Through extensive experimentation involving various models, tasks, and modalities we establish that integrating Model Breadcrumbs offers a simple, efficient, and highly effective approach for constructing multi-task models and facilitating updates to foundation models.

Existing Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) struggle with mathematical geometric reasoning due to a lack of high-quality image-text paired data. Current geometric data generation approaches, which apply preset templates to generate geometric data or use Large Language Models (LLMs) to rephrase questions and answers (Q&A), unavoidably limit data accuracy and diversity. To synthesize higher-quality data, we propose a two-stage Reverse Chain-of-Thought (R-CoT) geometry problem generation pipeline. First, we introduce GeoChain to produce high-fidelity geometric images and corresponding descriptions highlighting relations among geometric elements. We then design a Reverse A&Q method that reasons step-by-step based on the descriptions and generates questions in reverse from the reasoning results. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed method brings significant and consistent improvements on multiple LMM baselines, achieving new performance records in the 2B, 7B, and 8B settings. Notably, R-CoT-8B significantly outperforms previous state-of-the-art open-source mathematical models by 16.6% on MathVista and 9.2% on GeoQA, while also surpassing the closed-source model GPT-4o by an average of 13% across both datasets. The code is available at https://github.com/dle666/R-CoT.

Transformers have become the predominant architecture in foundation models due to their excellent performance across various domains. However, the substantial cost of scaling these models remains a significant concern. This problem arises primarily from their dependence on a fixed number of parameters within linear projections. When architectural modifications (e.g., channel dimensions) are introduced, the entire model typically requires retraining from scratch. As model sizes continue growing, this strategy results in increasingly high computational costs and becomes unsustainable. To overcome this problem, we introduce TokenFormer, a natively scalable architecture that leverages the attention mechanism not only for computations among input tokens but also for interactions between tokens and model parameters, thereby enhancing architectural flexibility. By treating model parameters as tokens, we replace all the linear projections in Transformers with our token-parameter attention layer, where input tokens act as queries and model parameters as keys and values. This reformulation allows for progressive and efficient scaling without necessitating retraining from scratch. Our model scales from 124M to 1.4B parameters by incrementally adding new key-value parameter pairs, achieving performance comparable to Transformers trained from scratch while greatly reducing training costs. Code and models are available at https://github.com/Haiyang-W/TokenFormer.

Existing pre-trained models are generally geared towards a particular class of problems. To date, there seems to be still no consensus on what the right architecture and pre-training setup should be. This paper presents a unified framework for pre-training models that are universally effective across datasets and setups. We begin by disentangling architectural archetypes with pre-training objectives -- two concepts that are commonly conflated. Next, we present a generalized & unified perspective for self-supervision in NLP and show how different pre-training objectives can be cast as one another and how interpolating between different objectives can be effective. We then propose Mixture-of-Denoisers (MoD), a pre-training objective that combines diverse pre-training paradigms together. We furthermore introduce a notion of mode switching, wherein downstream fine-tuning is associated with specific pre-training schemes. We conduct extensive ablative experiments to compare multiple pre-training objectives and find that our method pushes the Pareto-frontier by outperforming T5 & GPT-like models across multiple diverse setups. By scaling our model up to 20B parameters, we achieve SOTA performance on 50 well-established supervised finetuning based NLP tasks. Our model also achieve strong results at in-context learning, outperforming 175B GPT-3 on zero-shot SuperGLUE and tripling the performance of T5-XXL on one-shot summarization. On 0-shot MMLU, UL2 20B outperforms T0 and T5 models. UL2 20B also works well with chain-of-thought prompting and reasoning, making it an appealing choice for research into reasoning at a small to medium scale of 20B parameters. Finally, we apply FLAN instruction tuning to the UL2 20B model, achieving MMLU and Big-Bench scores competitive to FLAN-PaLM 62B. We release Flax-based T5X checkpoints for the UL2 20B & Flan-UL2 20B.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently shown tremendous promise in serving as the backbone to agentic systems, as demonstrated by their performance in multi-faceted, challenging benchmarks like SWE-Bench and Agent-Bench. However, to realize the true potential of LLMs as autonomous agents, they must learn to identify, call, and interact with external tools and application program interfaces (APIs) to complete complex tasks. These tasks together are termed function calling. Endowing LLMs with function calling abilities leads to a myriad of advantages, such as access to current and domain-specific information in databases and knowledge sources, and the ability to outsource tasks that can be reliably performed by tools, e.g., a Python interpreter or calculator. While there has been significant progress in function calling with LLMs, there is still a dearth of open models that perform on par with proprietary LLMs like GPT, Claude, and Gemini. Therefore, in this work, we introduce the GRANITE-20B-FUNCTIONCALLING model under an Apache 2.0 license. The model is trained using a multi-task training approach on seven fundamental tasks encompassed in function calling, those being Nested Function Calling, Function Chaining, Parallel Functions, Function Name Detection, Parameter-Value Pair Detection, Next-Best Function, and Response Generation. We present a comprehensive evaluation on multiple out-of-domain datasets comparing GRANITE-20B-FUNCTIONCALLING to more than 15 other best proprietary and open models. GRANITE-20B-FUNCTIONCALLING provides the best performance among all open models on the Berkeley Function Calling Leaderboard and fourth overall. As a result of the diverse tasks and datasets used for training our model, we show that GRANITE-20B-FUNCTIONCALLING has better generalizability on multiple tasks in seven different evaluation datasets.

In this paper, we introduce FITS, a lightweight yet powerful model for time series analysis. Unlike existing models that directly process raw time-domain data, FITS operates on the principle that time series can be manipulated through interpolation in the complex frequency domain. By discarding high-frequency components with negligible impact on time series data, FITS achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art models for time series forecasting and anomaly detection tasks, while having a remarkably compact size of only approximately 10k parameters. Such a lightweight model can be easily trained and deployed in edge devices, creating opportunities for various applications. The code is available in: https://github.com/VEWOXIC/FITS

Parameter inference, i.e. inferring the posterior distribution of the parameters of a statistical model given some data, is a central problem to many scientific disciplines. Generative models can be used as an alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for conducting posterior inference, both in likelihood-based and simulation-based problems. However, assessing the accuracy of posteriors encoded in generative models is not straightforward. In this paper, we introduce `Tests of Accuracy with Random Points' (TARP) coverage testing as a method to estimate coverage probabilities of generative posterior estimators. Our method differs from previously-existing coverage-based methods, which require posterior evaluations. We prove that our approach is necessary and sufficient to show that a posterior estimator is accurate. We demonstrate the method on a variety of synthetic examples, and show that TARP can be used to test the results of posterior inference analyses in high-dimensional spaces. We also show that our method can detect inaccurate inferences in cases where existing methods fail.

Uncovering early-stage metrics that reflect final model performance is one core principle for large-scale pretraining. The existing scaling law demonstrates the power-law correlation between pretraining loss and training flops, which serves as an important indicator of the current training state for large language models. However, this principle only focuses on the model's compression properties on the training data, resulting in an inconsistency with the ability improvements on the downstream tasks. Some follow-up works attempted to extend the scaling-law to more complex metrics (such as hyperparameters), but still lacked a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic differences among various capabilities during pretraining. To address the aforementioned limitations, this paper undertakes a comprehensive comparison of model capabilities at various pretraining intermediate checkpoints. Through this analysis, we confirm that specific downstream metrics exhibit similar training dynamics across models of different sizes, up to 67 billion parameters. In addition to our core findings, we've reproduced Amber and OpenLLaMA, releasing their intermediate checkpoints. This initiative offers valuable resources to the research community and facilitates the verification and exploration of LLM pretraining by open-source researchers. Besides, we provide empirical summaries, including performance comparisons of different models and capabilities, and tuition of key metrics for different training phases. Based on these findings, we provide a more user-friendly strategy for evaluating the optimization state, offering guidance for establishing a stable pretraining process.

Transformer models have revolutionized natural language processing with their unparalleled ability to grasp complex contextual relationships. However, the vast number of parameters in these models has raised concerns regarding computational efficiency, environmental impact, and deployability on resource-limited platforms. To address these challenges, this paper investigates the application of weight pruning-a strategic reduction of model parameters based on their significance-as an optimization strategy for Transformer architectures. Through extensive experimentation, we explore various pruning methodologies, highlighting their impact on model performance, size, and computational demands. Our findings suggest that with judicious selection of pruning hyperparameters, significant reductions in model size are attainable without considerable compromise on performance. Moreover, when coupled with post-pruning fine-tuning strategies, some pruned models even exhibit enhanced generalization capabilities. This work seeks to bridge the gap between model efficiency and performance, paving the way for more scalable and environmentally responsible deep learning applications.

As AI model size grows, neural scaling laws have become a crucial tool to predict the improvements of large models when increasing capacity and the size of original (human or natural) training data. Yet, the widespread use of popular models means that the ecosystem of online data and text will co-evolve to progressively contain increased amounts of synthesized data. In this paper we ask: How will the scaling laws change in the inevitable regime where synthetic data makes its way into the training corpus? Will future models, still improve, or be doomed to degenerate up to total (model) collapse? We develop a theoretical framework of model collapse through the lens of scaling laws. We discover a wide range of decay phenomena, analyzing loss of scaling, shifted scaling with number of generations, the ''un-learning" of skills, and grokking when mixing human and synthesized data. Our theory is validated by large-scale experiments with a transformer on an arithmetic task and text generation using the large language model Llama2.

The task of text-to-SQL parsing, which aims at converting natural language questions into executable SQL queries, has garnered increasing attention in recent years, as it can assist end users in efficiently extracting vital information from databases without the need for technical background. One of the major challenges in text-to-SQL parsing is domain generalization, i.e., how to generalize well to unseen databases. Recently, the pre-trained text-to-text transformer model, namely T5, though not specialized for text-to-SQL parsing, has achieved state-of-the-art performance on standard benchmarks targeting domain generalization. In this work, we explore ways to further augment the pre-trained T5 model with specialized components for text-to-SQL parsing. Such components are expected to introduce structural inductive bias into text-to-SQL parsers thus improving model's capacity on (potentially multi-hop) reasoning, which is critical for generating structure-rich SQLs. To this end, we propose a new architecture GRAPHIX-T5, a mixed model with the standard pre-trained transformer model augmented by some specially-designed graph-aware layers. Extensive experiments and analysis demonstrate the effectiveness of GRAPHIX-T5 across four text-to-SQL benchmarks: SPIDER, SYN, REALISTIC and DK. GRAPHIX-T5 surpass all other T5-based parsers with a significant margin, achieving new state-of-the-art performance. Notably, GRAPHIX-T5-large reach performance superior to the original T5-large by 5.7% on exact match (EM) accuracy and 6.6% on execution accuracy (EX). This even outperforms the T5-3B by 1.2% on EM and 1.5% on EX.

We introduce Sundial, a family of native, flexible, and scalable time series foundation models. To predict the next-patch's distribution, we propose a TimeFlow Loss based on flow-matching, which facilitates native pre-training of Transformers on time series without discrete tokenization. Conditioned on arbitrary-length time series, our model is pre-trained without specifying any prior distribution and can generate multiple probable predictions, achieving flexibility in representation learning beyond using parametric densities. Towards time series foundation models, we leverage minimal but crucial adaptations of Transformers and curate TimeBench with 1 trillion time points, comprising mostly real-world datasets and synthetic data. By mitigating mode collapse through TimeFlow Loss, we pre-train a family of Sundial models on TimeBench, which exhibit unprecedented model capacity and generalization performance on zero-shot forecasting. In addition to presenting good scaling behavior, Sundial achieves new state-of-the-art on both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting benchmarks. We believe that Sundial's pioneering generative paradigm will facilitate a wide variety of forecasting scenarios.

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized the field of artificial intelligence, enabling natural language processing tasks that were previously thought to be exclusive to humans. In this work, we introduce Qwen, the first installment of our large language model series. Qwen is a comprehensive language model series that encompasses distinct models with varying parameter counts. It includes Qwen, the base pretrained language models, and Qwen-Chat, the chat models finetuned with human alignment techniques. The base language models consistently demonstrate superior performance across a multitude of downstream tasks, and the chat models, particularly those trained using Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), are highly competitive. The chat models possess advanced tool-use and planning capabilities for creating agent applications, showcasing impressive performance even when compared to bigger models on complex tasks like utilizing a code interpreter. Furthermore, we have developed coding-specialized models, Code-Qwen and Code-Qwen-Chat, as well as mathematics-focused models, Math-Qwen-Chat, which are built upon base language models. These models demonstrate significantly improved performance in comparison with open-source models, and slightly fall behind the proprietary models.

We present 360Zhinao models with 7B parameter size and context lengths spanning 4K, 32K and 360K, all available at https://github.com/Qihoo360/360zhinao. For rapid development in pretraining, we establish a stable and sensitive ablation environment to evaluate and compare experiment runs with minimal model size. Under such guidance, we perfect our data cleaning and composition strategies to pretrain 360Zhinao-7B-Base on 3.4T tokens. We also mainly emphasize data during alignment, where we strive to balance quantity and quality with filtering and reformatting. With tailored data, 360Zhinao-7B's context window is easily extended to 32K and 360K. RMs and RLHF are trained following SFT and credibly applied to specific tasks. All together these contributions lead to 360Zhinao-7B's competitive performance among models of similar size.

From the Bayesian perspective, the category of conditional probabilities (a variant of the Kleisli category of the Giry monad, whose objects are measurable spaces and arrows are Markov kernels) gives a nice framework for conceptualization and analysis of many aspects of machine learning. Using categorical methods, we construct models for parametric and nonparametric Bayesian reasoning on function spaces, thus providing a basis for the supervised learning problem. In particular, stochastic processes are arrows to these function spaces which serve as prior probabilities. The resulting inference maps can often be analytically constructed in this symmetric monoidal weakly closed category. We also show how to view general stochastic processes using functor categories and demonstrate the Kalman filter as an archetype for the hidden Markov model.

We present Recurrent Fitting (ReFit), a neural network architecture for single-image, parametric 3D human reconstruction. ReFit learns a feedback-update loop that mirrors the strategy of solving an inverse problem through optimization. At each iterative step, it reprojects keypoints from the human model to feature maps to query feedback, and uses a recurrent-based updater to adjust the model to fit the image better. Because ReFit encodes strong knowledge of the inverse problem, it is faster to train than previous regression models. At the same time, ReFit improves state-of-the-art performance on standard benchmarks. Moreover, ReFit applies to other optimization settings, such as multi-view fitting and single-view shape fitting. Project website: https://yufu-wang.github.io/refit_humans/

Large pre-trained models have achieved outstanding results in sequence modeling. The Transformer block and its attention mechanism have been the main drivers of the success of these models. Recently, alternative architectures, such as Selective Structured State Space Models (SSMs), have been proposed to address the inefficiencies of Transformers. This paper explores the compression of SSM-based models, particularly Mamba and its hybrids. We study the sensitivity of these models to the removal of selected components at different granularities to reduce the model size and computational overhead, thus improving their efficiency while maintaining accuracy. The proposed solutions, collectively referred to as Mamba-Shedder, achieve a speedup of up to 1.4x during inference, demonstrating that model efficiency can be improved by eliminating several redundancies with minimal impact on the overall model performance. The code is available at https://github.com/IntelLabs/Hardware-Aware-Automated-Machine-Learning.

Regression-based methods have recently shown promising results in reconstructing human meshes from monocular images. By directly mapping raw pixels to model parameters, these methods can produce parametric models in a feed-forward manner via neural networks. However, minor deviation in parameters may lead to noticeable misalignment between the estimated meshes and image evidences. To address this issue, we propose a Pyramidal Mesh Alignment Feedback (PyMAF) loop to leverage a feature pyramid and rectify the predicted parameters explicitly based on the mesh-image alignment status in our deep regressor. In PyMAF, given the currently predicted parameters, mesh-aligned evidences will be extracted from finer-resolution features accordingly and fed back for parameter rectification. To reduce noise and enhance the reliability of these evidences, an auxiliary pixel-wise supervision is imposed on the feature encoder, which provides mesh-image correspondence guidance for our network to preserve the most related information in spatial features. The efficacy of our approach is validated on several benchmarks, including Human3.6M, 3DPW, LSP, and COCO, where experimental results show that our approach consistently improves the mesh-image alignment of the reconstruction. The project page with code and video results can be found at https://hongwenzhang.github.io/pymaf.

Approximate inference in Gaussian process (GP) models with non-conjugate likelihoods gets entangled with the learning of the model hyperparameters. We improve hyperparameter learning in GP models and focus on the interplay between variational inference (VI) and the learning target. While VI's lower bound to the marginal likelihood is a suitable objective for inferring the approximate posterior, we show that a direct approximation of the marginal likelihood as in Expectation Propagation (EP) is a better learning objective for hyperparameter optimization. We design a hybrid training procedure to bring the best of both worlds: it leverages conjugate-computation VI for inference and uses an EP-like marginal likelihood approximation for hyperparameter learning. We compare VI, EP, Laplace approximation, and our proposed training procedure and empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal across a wide range of data sets.

The Languini Kitchen serves as both a research collective and codebase designed to empower researchers with limited computational resources to contribute meaningfully to the field of language modelling. We introduce an experimental protocol that enables model comparisons based on equivalent compute, measured in accelerator hours. The number of tokens on which a model is trained is defined by the model's throughput and the chosen compute class. Notably, this approach avoids constraints on critical hyperparameters which affect total parameters or floating-point operations. For evaluation, we pre-process an existing large, diverse, and high-quality dataset of books that surpasses existing academic benchmarks in quality, diversity, and document length. On it, we compare methods based on their empirical scaling trends which are estimated through experiments at various levels of compute. This work also provides two baseline models: a feed-forward model derived from the GPT-2 architecture and a recurrent model in the form of a novel LSTM with ten-fold throughput. While the GPT baseline achieves better perplexity throughout all our levels of compute, our LSTM baseline exhibits a predictable and more favourable scaling law. This is due to the improved throughput and the need for fewer training tokens to achieve the same decrease in test perplexity. Extrapolating the scaling laws leads of both models results in an intersection at roughly 50,000 accelerator hours. We hope this work can serve as the foundation for meaningful and reproducible language modelling research.

Transformer-based deep neural networks have revolutionized the field of molecular-related prediction tasks by treating molecules as symbolic sequences. These models have been successfully applied in various organic chemical applications by pretraining them with extensive compound libraries and subsequently fine-tuning them with smaller in-house datasets for specific tasks. However, many conventional methods primarily focus on single molecules, with limited exploration of pretraining for reactions involving multiple molecules. In this paper, we propose ReactionT5, a novel model that leverages pretraining on the Open Reaction Database (ORD), a publicly available large-scale resource. We further fine-tune this model for yield prediction and product prediction tasks, demonstrating its impressive performance even with limited fine-tuning data compared to traditional models. The pre-trained ReactionT5 model is publicly accessible on the Hugging Face platform.

Datasets often have their intrinsic symmetries, and particular deep-learning models called equivariant or invariant models have been developed to exploit these symmetries. However, if some or all of these symmetries are only approximate, which frequently happens in practice, these models may be suboptimal due to the architectural restrictions imposed on them. We tackle this issue of approximate symmetries in a setup where symmetries are mixed, i.e., they are symmetries of not single but multiple different types and the degree of approximation varies across these types. Instead of proposing a new architectural restriction as in most of the previous approaches, we present a regularizer-based method for building a model for a dataset with mixed approximate symmetries. The key component of our method is what we call equivariance regularizer for a given type of symmetries, which measures how much a model is equivariant with respect to the symmetries of the type. Our method is trained with these regularizers, one per each symmetry type, and the strength of the regularizers is automatically tuned during training, leading to the discovery of the approximation levels of some candidate symmetry types without explicit supervision. Using synthetic function approximation and motion forecasting tasks, we demonstrate that our method achieves better accuracy than prior approaches while discovering the approximate symmetry levels correctly.

Topological data analysis (TDA) is an area of data science that focuses on using invariants from algebraic topology to provide multiscale shape descriptors for geometric data sets such as point clouds. One of the most important such descriptors is {\em persistent homology}, which encodes the change in shape as a filtration parameter changes; a typical parameter is the feature scale. For many data sets, it is useful to simultaneously vary multiple filtration parameters, for example feature scale and density. While the theoretical properties of single parameter persistent homology are well understood, less is known about the multiparameter case. In particular, a central question is the problem of representing multiparameter persistent homology by elements of a vector space for integration with standard machine learning algorithms. Existing approaches to this problem either ignore most of the multiparameter information to reduce to the one-parameter case or are heuristic and potentially unstable in the face of noise. In this article, we introduce a new general representation framework that leverages recent results on {\em decompositions} of multiparameter persistent homology. This framework is rich in information, fast to compute, and encompasses previous approaches. Moreover, we establish theoretical stability guarantees under this framework as well as efficient algorithms for practical computation, making this framework an applicable and versatile tool for analyzing geometric and point cloud data. We validate our stability results and algorithms with numerical experiments that demonstrate statistical convergence, prediction accuracy, and fast running times on several real data sets.

Data-driven deep learning models are transforming global weather forecasting. It is an open question if this success can extend to climate modeling, where the complexity of the data and long inference rollouts pose significant challenges. Here, we present the first conditional generative model that produces accurate and physically consistent global climate ensemble simulations by emulating a coarse version of the United States' primary operational global forecast model, FV3GFS. Our model integrates the dynamics-informed diffusion framework (DYffusion) with the Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) architecture, enabling stable 100-year simulations at 6-hourly timesteps while maintaining low computational overhead compared to single-step deterministic baselines. The model achieves near gold-standard performance for climate model emulation, outperforming existing approaches and demonstrating promising ensemble skill. This work represents a significant advance towards efficient, data-driven climate simulations that can enhance our understanding of the climate system and inform adaptation strategies.

Symbolic regression (SR) is a challenging task in machine learning that involves finding a mathematical expression for a function based on its values. Recent advancements in SR have demonstrated the effectiveness of pretrained transformer-based models in generating equations as sequences, leveraging large-scale pretraining on synthetic datasets and offering notable advantages in terms of inference time over GP-based methods. However, these models primarily rely on supervised pretraining goals borrowed from text generation and overlook equation-specific objectives like accuracy and complexity. To address this, we propose TPSR, a Transformer-based Planning strategy for Symbolic Regression that incorporates Monte Carlo Tree Search into the transformer decoding process. Unlike conventional decoding strategies, TPSR enables the integration of non-differentiable feedback, such as fitting accuracy and complexity, as external sources of knowledge into the transformer-based equation generation process. Extensive experiments on various datasets show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods, enhancing the model's fitting-complexity trade-off, extrapolation abilities, and robustness to noise

Recent research has shown that smaller language models can acquire substantial reasoning abilities when fine-tuned with reasoning exemplars crafted by a significantly larger teacher model. We explore this paradigm for the financial domain, focusing on the challenge of answering questions that require multi-hop numerical reasoning over financial texts. We assess the performance of several smaller models that have been fine-tuned to generate programs that encode the required financial reasoning and calculations. Our findings demonstrate that these fine-tuned smaller models approach the performance of the teacher model. To provide a granular analysis of model performance, we propose an approach to investigate the specific student model capabilities that are enhanced by fine-tuning. Our empirical analysis indicates that fine-tuning refines the student models ability to express and apply the required financial concepts along with adapting the entity extraction for the specific data format. In addition, we hypothesize and demonstrate that comparable financial reasoning capability can be induced using relatively smaller datasets.

This paper revisits datasets and evaluation criteria for Symbolic Regression, a task of expressing given data using mathematical equations, specifically focused on its potential for scientific discovery. Focused on a set of formulas used in the existing datasets based on Feynman Lectures on Physics, we recreate 120 datasets to discuss the performance of symbolic regression for scientific discovery (SRSD). For each of the 120 SRSD datasets, we carefully review the properties of the formula and its variables to design reasonably realistic sampling range of values so that our new SRSD datasets can be used for evaluating the potential of SRSD such as whether or not an SR method can (re)discover physical laws from such datasets. As an evaluation metric, we also propose to use normalized edit distances between a predicted equation and the ground-truth equation trees. While existing metrics are either binary or errors between the target values and an SR model's predicted values for a given input, normalized edit distances evaluate a sort of similarity between the ground-truth and predicted equation trees. We have conducted experiments on our new SRSD datasets using five state-of-the-art SR methods in SRBench and a simple baseline based on a recent Transformer architecture. The results show that we provide a more realistic performance evaluation and open up a new machine learning-based approach for scientific discovery. Our datasets and code repository are publicly available.

In this report, we introduce Qwen2.5, a comprehensive series of large language models (LLMs) designed to meet diverse needs. Compared to previous iterations, Qwen 2.5 has been significantly improved during both the pre-training and post-training stages. In terms of pre-training, we have scaled the high-quality pre-training datasets from the previous 7 trillion tokens to 18 trillion tokens. This provides a strong foundation for common sense, expert knowledge, and reasoning capabilities. In terms of post-training, we implement intricate supervised finetuning with over 1 million samples, as well as multistage reinforcement learning. Post-training techniques enhance human preference, and notably improve long text generation, structural data analysis, and instruction following. To handle diverse and varied use cases effectively, we present Qwen2.5 LLM series in rich sizes. Open-weight offerings include base and instruction-tuned models, with quantized versions available. In addition, for hosted solutions, the proprietary models currently include two mixture-of-experts (MoE) variants: Qwen2.5-Turbo and Qwen2.5-Plus, both available from Alibaba Cloud Model Studio. Qwen2.5 has demonstrated top-tier performance on a wide range of benchmarks evaluating language understanding, reasoning, mathematics, coding, human preference alignment, etc. Specifically, the open-weight flagship Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct outperforms a number of open and proprietary models and demonstrates competitive performance to the state-of-the-art open-weight model, Llama-3-405B-Instruct, which is around 5 times larger. Qwen2.5-Turbo and Qwen2.5-Plus offer superior cost-effectiveness while performing competitively against GPT-4o-mini and GPT-4o respectively. Additionally, as the foundation, Qwen2.5 models have been instrumental in training specialized models such as Qwen2.5-Math, Qwen2.5-Coder, QwQ, and multimodal models.

There is growing evidence that pretraining on high quality, carefully thought-out tokens such as code or mathematics plays an important role in improving the reasoning abilities of large language models. For example, Minerva, a PaLM model finetuned on billions of tokens of mathematical documents from arXiv and the web, reported dramatically improved performance on problems that require quantitative reasoning. However, because all known open source web datasets employ preprocessing that does not faithfully preserve mathematical notation, the benefits of large scale training on quantitive web documents are unavailable to the research community. We introduce OpenWebMath, an open dataset inspired by these works containing 14.7B tokens of mathematical webpages from Common Crawl. We describe in detail our method for extracting text and LaTeX content and removing boilerplate from HTML documents, as well as our methods for quality filtering and deduplication. Additionally, we run small-scale experiments by training 1.4B parameter language models on OpenWebMath, showing that models trained on 14.7B tokens of our dataset surpass the performance of models trained on over 20x the amount of general language data. We hope that our dataset, openly released on the Hugging Face Hub, will help spur advances in the reasoning abilities of large language models.

Current foundation models exhibit impressive capabilities when prompted either with text only or with both image and text inputs. But do their capabilities change depending on the input modality? In this work, we propose IsoBench, a benchmark dataset containing problems from four major areas: math, science, algorithms, and games. Each example is presented with multiple isomorphic representations of inputs, such as visual, textual, and mathematical presentations. IsoBench provides fine-grained feedback to diagnose performance gaps caused by the form of the representation. Across various foundation models, we observe that on the same problem, models have a consistent preference towards textual representations. Most prominently, when evaluated on all IsoBench problems, Claude-3 Opus performs 28.7 points worse when provided with images instead of text; similarly, GPT-4 Turbo is 18.7 points worse and Gemini Pro is 14.9 points worse. Finally, we present two prompting techniques, IsoCombination and IsoScratchPad, which improve model performance by considering combinations of, and translations between, different input representations.

Large language models (LLMs) have exhibited great potential in mathematical reasoning. However, there remains a performance gap in this area between existing open-source models and closed-source models such as GPT-4. In this paper, we introduce MathGenie, a novel method for generating diverse and reliable math problems from a small-scale problem-solution dataset (denoted as seed data). We augment the ground-truth solutions of our seed data and train a back-translation model to translate the augmented solutions back into new questions. Subsequently, we generate code-integrated solutions for the new questions. To ensure the correctness of the code-integrated solutions, we employ rationale-based strategy for solution verification. Various pretrained models, ranging from 7B to 70B, are trained on the newly curated data to test the effectiveness of the proposed augmentation technique, resulting in a family of models known as MathGenieLM. These models consistently outperform previous open-source models across five representative mathematical reasoning datasets, achieving state-of-the-art performance. In particular, MathGenieLM-InternLM2 achieves an accuracy of 87.7% on GSM8K and 55.7% on MATH, securing the best overall score among open-source language models.

We introduce Chronos, a simple yet effective framework for pretrained probabilistic time series models. Chronos tokenizes time series values using scaling and quantization into a fixed vocabulary and trains existing transformer-based language model architectures on these tokenized time series via the cross-entropy loss. We pretrained Chronos models based on the T5 family (ranging from 20M to 710M parameters) on a large collection of publicly available datasets, complemented by a synthetic dataset that we generated via Gaussian processes to improve generalization. In a comprehensive benchmark consisting of 42 datasets, and comprising both classical local models and deep learning methods, we show that Chronos models: (a) significantly outperform other methods on datasets that were part of the training corpus; and (b) have comparable and occasionally superior zero-shot performance on new datasets, relative to methods that were trained specifically on them. Our results demonstrate that Chronos models can leverage time series data from diverse domains to improve zero-shot accuracy on unseen forecasting tasks, positioning pretrained models as a viable tool to greatly simplify forecasting pipelines.

Machine learning approaches for solving partial differential equations require learning mappings between function spaces. While convolutional or graph neural networks are constrained to discretized functions, neural operators present a promising milestone toward mapping functions directly. Despite impressive results they still face challenges with respect to the domain geometry and typically rely on some form of discretization. In order to alleviate such limitations, we present CORAL, a new method that leverages coordinate-based networks for solving PDEs on general geometries. CORAL is designed to remove constraints on the input mesh, making it applicable to any spatial sampling and geometry. Its ability extends to diverse problem domains, including PDE solving, spatio-temporal forecasting, and inverse problems like geometric design. CORAL demonstrates robust performance across multiple resolutions and performs well in both convex and non-convex domains, surpassing or performing on par with state-of-the-art models.

Automated machine learning (AutoML) is a collection of techniques designed to automate the machine learning development process. While traditional AutoML approaches have been successfully applied in several critical steps of model development (e.g. hyperparameter optimization), there lacks a AutoML system that automates the entire end-to-end model production workflow. To fill this blank, we present AutoMMLab, a general-purpose LLM-empowered AutoML system that follows user's language instructions to automate the whole model production workflow for computer vision tasks. The proposed AutoMMLab system effectively employs LLMs as the bridge to connect AutoML and OpenMMLab community, empowering non-expert individuals to easily build task-specific models via a user-friendly language interface. Specifically, we propose RU-LLaMA to understand users' request and schedule the whole pipeline, and propose a novel LLM-based hyperparameter optimizer called HPO-LLaMA to effectively search for the optimal hyperparameters. Experiments show that our AutoMMLab system is versatile and covers a wide range of mainstream tasks, including classification, detection, segmentation and keypoint estimation. We further develop a new benchmark, called LAMP, for studying key components in the end-to-end prompt-based model training pipeline. Code, model, and data will be released.

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning has been extensively explored in large models to tackle complex understanding tasks. However, it still remains an open question whether such strategies can be applied to verifying and reinforcing image generation scenarios. In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive investigation of the potential of CoT reasoning to enhance autoregressive image generation. We focus on three techniques: scaling test-time computation for verification, aligning model preferences with Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), and integrating these techniques for complementary effects. Our results demonstrate that these approaches can be effectively adapted and combined to significantly improve image generation performance. Furthermore, given the pivotal role of reward models in our findings, we propose the Potential Assessment Reward Model (PARM) and PARM++, specialized for autoregressive image generation. PARM adaptively assesses each generation step through a potential assessment approach, merging the strengths of existing reward models, and PARM++ further introduces a reflection mechanism to self-correct the generated unsatisfactory image. Using our investigated reasoning strategies, we enhance a baseline model, Show-o, to achieve superior results, with a significant +24% improvement on the GenEval benchmark, surpassing Stable Diffusion 3 by +15%. We hope our study provides unique insights and paves a new path for integrating CoT reasoning with autoregressive image generation. Code and models are released at https://github.com/ZiyuGuo99/Image-Generation-CoT

Figuring out which Pre-Trained Model (PTM) from a model zoo fits the target task is essential to take advantage of plentiful model resources. With the availability of numerous heterogeneous PTMs from diverse fields, efficiently selecting the most suitable PTM is challenging due to the time-consuming costs of carrying out forward or backward passes over all PTMs. In this paper, we propose Model Spider, which tokenizes both PTMs and tasks by summarizing their characteristics into vectors to enable efficient PTM selection. By leveraging the approximated performance of PTMs on a separate set of training tasks, Model Spider learns to construct tokens and measure the fitness score between a model-task pair via their tokens. The ability to rank relevant PTMs higher than others generalizes to new tasks. With the top-ranked PTM candidates, we further learn to enrich task tokens with their PTM-specific semantics to re-rank the PTMs for better selection. Model Spider balances efficiency and selection ability, making PTM selection like a spider preying on a web. Model Spider demonstrates promising performance in various configurations of model zoos.

We introduce a model-based asynchronous multi-fidelity method for hyperparameter and neural architecture search that combines the strengths of asynchronous Hyperband and Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization. At the heart of our method is a probabilistic model that can simultaneously reason across hyperparameters and resource levels, and supports decision-making in the presence of pending evaluations. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on a wide range of challenging benchmarks, for tabular data, image classification and language modelling, and report substantial speed-ups over current state-of-the-art methods. Our new methods, along with asynchronous baselines, are implemented in a distributed framework which will be open sourced along with this publication.

This position paper explores the rapid development of Foundation Models (FMs) in AI and their implications for intelligence and reasoning. It examines the characteristics of FMs, including their training on vast datasets and use of embedding spaces to capture semantic relationships. The paper discusses recent advancements in FMs' reasoning abilities which we argue cannot be attributed to increased model size but to novel training techniques which yield learning phenomena like grokking. It also addresses the challenges in benchmarking FMs and compares their structure to the human brain. We argue that while FMs show promising developments in reasoning and knowledge representation, understanding their inner workings remains a significant challenge, similar to ongoing efforts in neuroscience to comprehend human brain function. Despite having some similarities, fundamental differences between FMs and the structure of human brain warn us against making direct comparisons or expecting neuroscience to provide immediate insights into FM function.

Energy-Based Models (EBMs) have emerged as a powerful framework in the realm of generative modeling, offering a unique perspective that aligns closely with principles of statistical mechanics. This review aims to provide physicists with a comprehensive understanding of EBMs, delineating their connection to other generative models such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), and Normalizing Flows. We explore the sampling techniques crucial for EBMs, including Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, and draw parallels between EBM concepts and statistical mechanics, highlighting the significance of energy functions and partition functions. Furthermore, we delve into state-of-the-art training methodologies for EBMs, covering recent advancements and their implications for enhanced model performance and efficiency. This review is designed to clarify the often complex interconnections between these models, which can be challenging due to the diverse communities working on the topic.

Machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques have gained significant attention as reduced order models (ROMs) to computationally expensive structural analysis methods, such as finite element analysis (FEA). Graph neural network (GNN) is a particular type of neural network which processes data that can be represented as graphs. This allows for efficient representation of complex geometries that can change during conceptual design of a structure or a product. In this study, we propose a novel graph embedding technique for efficient representation of 3D stiffened panels by considering separate plate domains as vertices. This approach is considered using Graph Sampling and Aggregation (GraphSAGE) to predict stress distributions in stiffened panels with varying geometries. A comparison between a finite-element-vertex graph representation is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A comprehensive parametric study is performed to examine the effect of structural geometry on the prediction performance. Our results demonstrate the immense potential of graph neural networks with the proposed graph embedding method as robust reduced-order models for 3D structures.

While score-based generative models are the model of choice across diverse domains, there are limited tools available for controlling inference-time behavior in a principled manner, e.g. for composing multiple pretrained models. Existing classifier-free guidance methods use a simple heuristic to mix conditional and unconditional scores to approximately sample from conditional distributions. However, such methods do not approximate the intermediate distributions, necessitating additional 'corrector' steps. In this work, we provide an efficient and principled method for sampling from a sequence of annealed, geometric-averaged, or product distributions derived from pretrained score-based models. We derive a weighted simulation scheme which we call Feynman-Kac Correctors (FKCs) based on the celebrated Feynman-Kac formula by carefully accounting for terms in the appropriate partial differential equations (PDEs). To simulate these PDEs, we propose Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) resampling algorithms that leverage inference-time scaling to improve sampling quality. We empirically demonstrate the utility of our methods by proposing amortized sampling via inference-time temperature annealing, improving multi-objective molecule generation using pretrained models, and improving classifier-free guidance for text-to-image generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/martaskrt/fkc-diffusion.

Modeling multivariate time series is a well-established problem with a wide range of applications from healthcare to financial markets. Traditional State Space Models (SSMs) are classical approaches for univariate time series modeling due to their simplicity and expressive power to represent linear dependencies. They, however, have fundamentally limited expressive power to capture non-linear dependencies, are slow in practice, and fail to model the inter-variate information flow. Despite recent attempts to improve the expressive power of SSMs by using deep structured SSMs, the existing methods are either limited to univariate time series, fail to model complex patterns (e.g., seasonal patterns), fail to dynamically model the dependencies of variate and time dimensions, and/or are input-independent. We present Chimera that uses two input-dependent 2-D SSM heads with different discretization processes to learn long-term progression and seasonal patterns. To improve the efficiency of complex 2D recurrence, we present a fast training using a new 2-dimensional parallel selective scan. We further present and discuss 2-dimensional Mamba and Mamba-2 as the spacial cases of our 2D SSM. Our experimental evaluation shows the superior performance of Chimera on extensive and diverse benchmarks, including ECG and speech time series classification, long-term and short-term time series forecasting, and time series anomaly detection.

Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) for numerical weather prediction (NWP) have significantly transformed atmospheric modeling. AI NWP models outperform traditional physics-based systems, such as the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), across several global metrics while requiring fewer computational resources. However, existing AI NWP models face limitations related to training datasets and timestep choices, often resulting in artifacts that reduce model performance. To address these challenges, we introduce the Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin (CREDIT) framework, developed at NSF NCAR. CREDIT provides a flexible, scalable, and user-friendly platform for training and deploying AI-based atmospheric models on high-performance computing systems. It offers an end-to-end pipeline for data preprocessing, model training, and evaluation, democratizing access to advanced AI NWP capabilities. We demonstrate CREDIT's potential through WXFormer, a novel deterministic vision transformer designed to predict atmospheric states autoregressively, addressing common AI NWP issues like compounding error growth with techniques such as spectral normalization, padding, and multi-step training. Additionally, to illustrate CREDIT's flexibility and state-of-the-art model comparisons, we train the FUXI architecture within this framework. Our findings show that both FUXI and WXFormer, trained on six-hourly ERA5 hybrid sigma-pressure levels, generally outperform IFS HRES in 10-day forecasts, offering potential improvements in efficiency and forecast accuracy. CREDIT's modular design enables researchers to explore various models, datasets, and training configurations, fostering innovation within the scientific community.

Tensorial neural networks (TNNs) combine the successes of multilinear algebra with those of deep learning to enable extremely efficient reduced-order models of high-dimensional problems. Here, I describe a deep neural network architecture that fuses multiple TNNs into a larger network, intended to solve a broader class of problems than a single TNN. I evaluate this architecture, referred to as a "stacked tensorial neural network" (STNN), on a parametric PDE with three independent variables and three parameters. The three parameters correspond to one PDE coefficient and two quantities describing the domain geometry. The STNN provides an accurate reduced-order description of the solution manifold over a wide range of parameters. There is also evidence of meaningful generalization to parameter values outside its training data. Finally, while the STNN architecture is relatively simple and problem agnostic, it can be regularized to incorporate problem-specific features like symmetries and physical modeling assumptions.

As its width tends to infinity, a deep neural network's behavior under gradient descent can become simplified and predictable (e.g. given by the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK)), if it is parametrized appropriately (e.g. the NTK parametrization). However, we show that the standard and NTK parametrizations of a neural network do not admit infinite-width limits that can learn features, which is crucial for pretraining and transfer learning such as with BERT. We propose simple modifications to the standard parametrization to allow for feature learning in the limit. Using the *Tensor Programs* technique, we derive explicit formulas for such limits. On Word2Vec and few-shot learning on Omniglot via MAML, two canonical tasks that rely crucially on feature learning, we compute these limits exactly. We find that they outperform both NTK baselines and finite-width networks, with the latter approaching the infinite-width feature learning performance as width increases. More generally, we classify a natural space of neural network parametrizations that generalizes standard, NTK, and Mean Field parametrizations. We show 1) any parametrization in this space either admits feature learning or has an infinite-width training dynamics given by kernel gradient descent, but not both; 2) any such infinite-width limit can be computed using the Tensor Programs technique. Code for our experiments can be found at github.com/edwardjhu/TP4.

State Space Models (SSMs) have emerged as efficient alternatives to Transformers, mitigating their quadratic computational cost. However, the application of Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) methods to SSMs remains largely unexplored. In particular, prompt-based methods like Prompt Tuning and Prefix-Tuning, which are widely used in Transformers, do not perform well on SSMs. To address this, we propose state-based methods as a superior alternative to prompt-based methods. This new family of methods naturally stems from the architectural characteristics of SSMs. State-based methods adjust state-related features directly instead of depending on external prompts. Furthermore, we introduce a novel state-based PEFT method: State-offset Tuning. At every timestep, our method directly affects the state at the current step, leading to more effective adaptation. Through extensive experiments across diverse datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. Code is available at https://github.com/furiosa-ai/ssm-state-tuning.

While large pre-trained models have enabled impressive results on a variety of downstream tasks, the largest existing models still make errors, and even accurate predictions may become outdated over time. Because detecting all such failures at training time is impossible, enabling both developers and end users of such models to correct inaccurate outputs while leaving the model otherwise intact is desirable. However, the distributed, black-box nature of the representations learned by large neural networks makes producing such targeted edits difficult. If presented with only a single problematic input and new desired output, fine-tuning approaches tend to overfit; other editing algorithms are either computationally infeasible or simply ineffective when applied to very large models. To enable easy post-hoc editing at scale, we propose Model Editor Networks using Gradient Decomposition (MEND), a collection of small auxiliary editing networks that use a single desired input-output pair to make fast, local edits to a pre-trained model's behavior. MEND learns to transform the gradient obtained by standard fine-tuning, using a low-rank decomposition of the gradient to make the parameterization of this transformation tractable. MEND can be trained on a single GPU in less than a day even for 10 billion+ parameter models; once trained MEND enables rapid application of new edits to the pre-trained model. Our experiments with T5, GPT, BERT, and BART models show that MEND is the only approach to model editing that effectively edits the behavior of models with more than 10 billion parameters. Code and data available at https://sites.google.com/view/mend-editing.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated great potential as generalist assistants, showcasing powerful task understanding and problem-solving capabilities. To deploy LLMs as AI assistants, it is crucial that these models exhibit desirable behavioral traits, such as non-toxicity and resilience against jailbreak attempts. Current methods for detoxification or preventing jailbreaking usually involve Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) or Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), which requires finetuning billions of parameters through gradient descent with substantial computation cost. Furthermore, models modified through SFT and RLHF may deviate from the pretrained models, potentially leading to a degradation in foundational LLM capabilities. In this paper, we observe that surprisingly, directly editing a small subset of parameters can effectively modulate specific behaviors of LLMs, such as detoxification and resistance to jailbreaking. Specifically, for a behavior that we aim to avoid, we employ a linear classifier, which we term the behavior probe, to classify binary behavior labels within the hidden state space of the LLM. Using this probe, we introduce an algorithm to identify a critical subset of LLM parameters that significantly influence this targeted behavior. Then we directly edit these selected parameters by shifting them towards the behavior probe. Such a direct parameter editing method necessitates only inference-level computational resources. Experiments demonstrate that in the representative detoxification task, our approach achieves reductions of up to 90.0\% in toxicity on the RealToxicityPrompts dataset and 49.2\% on ToxiGen, while maintaining the LLM's general capabilities in areas such as common sense, question answering, and mathematics. Our code is available at https://github.com/lucywang720/model-surgery.

Sparsely activated models (SAMs), such as Mixture-of-Experts (MoE), can easily scale to have outrageously large amounts of parameters without significant increase in computational cost. However, SAMs are reported to be parameter inefficient such that larger models do not always lead to better performance. While most on-going research focuses on improving SAMs models by exploring methods of routing inputs to experts, our analysis reveals that such research might not lead to the solution we expect, i.e., the commonly-used routing methods based on gating mechanisms do not work better than randomly routing inputs to experts. In this paper, we propose a new expert-based model, THOR (Transformer witH StOchastic ExpeRts). Unlike classic expert-based models, such as the Switch Transformer, experts in THOR are randomly activated for each input during training and inference. THOR models are trained using a consistency regularized loss, where experts learn not only from training data but also from other experts as teachers, such that all the experts make consistent predictions. We validate the effectiveness of THOR on machine translation tasks. Results show that THOR models are more parameter efficient in that they significantly outperform the Transformer and MoE models across various settings. For example, in multilingual translation, THOR outperforms the Switch Transformer by 2 BLEU scores, and obtains the same BLEU score as that of a state-of-the-art MoE model that is 18 times larger. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/microsoft/Stochastic-Mixture-of-Experts.

Many recently trained neural networks employ large numbers of parameters to achieve good performance. One may intuitively use the number of parameters required as a rough gauge of the difficulty of a problem. But how accurate are such notions? How many parameters are really needed? In this paper we attempt to answer this question by training networks not in their native parameter space, but instead in a smaller, randomly oriented subspace. We slowly increase the dimension of this subspace, note at which dimension solutions first appear, and define this to be the intrinsic dimension of the objective landscape. The approach is simple to implement, computationally tractable, and produces several suggestive conclusions. Many problems have smaller intrinsic dimensions than one might suspect, and the intrinsic dimension for a given dataset varies little across a family of models with vastly different sizes. This latter result has the profound implication that once a parameter space is large enough to solve a problem, extra parameters serve directly to increase the dimensionality of the solution manifold. Intrinsic dimension allows some quantitative comparison of problem difficulty across supervised, reinforcement, and other types of learning where we conclude, for example, that solving the inverted pendulum problem is 100 times easier than classifying digits from MNIST, and playing Atari Pong from pixels is about as hard as classifying CIFAR-10. In addition to providing new cartography of the objective landscapes wandered by parameterized models, the method is a simple technique for constructively obtaining an upper bound on the minimum description length of a solution. A byproduct of this construction is a simple approach for compressing networks, in some cases by more than 100 times.

Recent advances in language models have demonstrated their capability to solve mathematical reasoning problems, achieving near-perfect accuracy on grade-school level math benchmarks like GSM8K. In this paper, we formally study how language models solve these problems. We design a series of controlled experiments to address several fundamental questions: (1) Can language models truly develop reasoning skills, or do they simply memorize templates? (2) What is the model's hidden (mental) reasoning process? (3) Do models solve math questions using skills similar to or different from humans? (4) Do models trained on GSM8K-like datasets develop reasoning skills beyond those necessary for solving GSM8K problems? (5) What mental process causes models to make reasoning mistakes? (6) How large or deep must a model be to effectively solve GSM8K-level math questions? Our study uncovers many hidden mechanisms by which language models solve mathematical questions, providing insights that extend beyond current understandings of LLMs.

Large models represent a groundbreaking advancement in multiple application fields, enabling remarkable achievements across various tasks. However, their unprecedented scale comes with significant computational costs. These models, often consisting of billions of parameters, require vast amounts of computational resources for execution. Especially, the expansive scale and computational demands pose considerable challenges when customizing them for particular downstream tasks, particularly over the hardware platforms constrained by computational capabilities. Parameter Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) provides a practical solution by efficiently adapt the large models over the various downstream tasks. In particular, PEFT refers to the process of adjusting the parameters of a pre-trained large models to adapt it to a specific task while minimizing the number of additional parameters introduced or computational resources required. This approach is particularly important when dealing with large language models with high parameter counts, as fine-tuning these models from scratch can be computationally expensive and resource-intensive, posing considerable challenges in the supporting system platform design. In this survey, we present comprehensive studies of various PEFT algorithms, examining their performance and computational overhead. Moreover, we provide an overview of applications developed using different PEFT algorithms and discuss common techniques employed to mitigate computation costs for PEFT. In addition to the algorithmic perspective, we overview various real-world system designs to investigate the implementation costs associated with different PEFT algorithms. This survey serves as an indispensable resource for researchers aiming to understand both the PEFT algorithm and its system implementation, offering detailed insights into recent advancements and practical applications.

Large language models (LLMs) are expensive to deploy. Parameter sharing offers a possible path towards reducing their size and cost, but its effectiveness in modern LLMs remains fairly limited. In this work, we revisit "layer tying" as form of parameter sharing in Transformers, and introduce novel methods for converting existing LLMs into smaller "Recursive Transformers" that share parameters across layers, with minimal loss of performance. Here, our Recursive Transformers are efficiently initialized from standard pretrained Transformers, but only use a single block of unique layers that is then repeated multiple times in a loop. We further improve performance by introducing Relaxed Recursive Transformers that add flexibility to the layer tying constraint via depth-wise low-rank adaptation (LoRA) modules, yet still preserve the compactness of the overall model. We show that our recursive models (e.g., recursive Gemma 1B) outperform both similar-sized vanilla pretrained models (such as TinyLlama 1.1B and Pythia 1B) and knowledge distillation baselines -- and can even recover most of the performance of the original "full-size" model (e.g., Gemma 2B with no shared parameters). Finally, we propose Continuous Depth-wise Batching, a promising new inference paradigm enabled by the Recursive Transformer when paired with early exiting. In a theoretical analysis, we show that this has the potential to lead to significant (2-3x) gains in inference throughput.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

Various parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) techniques have been proposed to enable computationally efficient fine-tuning while maintaining model performance. However, existing PEFT methods are still limited by the growing number of trainable parameters with the rapid deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs). To address this challenge, we present LoRETTA, an ultra-parameter-efficient framework that significantly reduces trainable parameters through tensor-train decomposition. Specifically, we propose two methods, named {LoRETTA}_{adp} and {LoRETTA}_{rep}. The former employs tensorized adapters, offering a high-performance yet lightweight approach for the fine-tuning of LLMs. The latter emphasizes fine-tuning via weight parameterization with a set of small tensor factors. LoRETTA achieves comparable or better performance than most widely used PEFT methods with up to 100times fewer parameters on the LLaMA-2-7B models. Furthermore, empirical results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively improves training efficiency, enjoys better multi-task learning performance, and enhances the anti-overfitting capability. Plug-and-play codes built upon the Huggingface framework and PEFT library will be released.

Transformer based language models (LMs) demonstrate increasing performance with scale across a wide variety of tasks. Scale alone however cannot enable models to solve tasks that require access to ephemeral, changing, or private data that was unavailable at training time. Many useful tasks may also benefit from LMs being able to access APIs that read or modify state. In this work, we present Tool Augmented Language Models (TALM), combining a text-only approach to augment language models with non-differentiable tools, and an iterative "self-play" technique to bootstrap performance starting from few tool demonstrations. TALM exhibits strong performance on both a knowledge-heavy QA task and a reasoning oriented math task with simple tools. At a given model scale, TALM significantly outperforms non-augmented LMs. We further demonstrate that TALM successfully performs out-of-distribution inferences on both QA and math tasks, where non-augmented LMs fail. Our results suggest that Tool Augmented Language Models are a promising direction to enrich LMs' capabilities, with less dependence on scale.

This report overviews our ongoing work in enriching chain-of-thoughts datasets requiring arithmetical reasoning with the integration of non-parametric components, such as a calculator. We conduct an analysis of prominent relevant datasets such as GSM8K, Ape210K, AQuA-RAT, and MathQA and propose a machine-processable HTML-like format specifically tailored for working with semi-structured chains. By converting the datasets into this unified format, we enable the effective integration of large language models and symbolic systems, empowering them to tackle arithmetical reasoning tasks more efficiently.

We present OLMo 2, the next generation of our fully open language models. OLMo 2 includes dense autoregressive models with improved architecture and training recipe, pretraining data mixtures, and instruction tuning recipes. Our modified model architecture and training recipe achieve both better training stability and improved per-token efficiency. Our updated pretraining data mixture introduces a new, specialized data mix called Dolmino Mix 1124, which significantly improves model capabilities across many downstream task benchmarks when introduced via late-stage curriculum training (i.e. specialized data during the annealing phase of pretraining). Finally, we incorporate best practices from T\"ulu 3 to develop OLMo 2-Instruct, focusing on permissive data and extending our final-stage reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR). Our OLMo 2 base models sit at the Pareto frontier of performance to compute, often matching or outperforming open-weight only models like Llama 3.1 and Qwen 2.5 while using fewer FLOPs and with fully transparent training data, code, and recipe. Our fully open OLMo 2-Instruct models are competitive with or surpassing open-weight only models of comparable size, including Qwen 2.5, Llama 3.1 and Gemma 2. We release all OLMo 2 artifacts openly -- models at 7B and 13B scales, both pretrained and post-trained, including their full training data, training code and recipes, training logs and thousands of intermediate checkpoints. The final instruction model is available on the Ai2 Playground as a free research demo.

A central goal of sequence modeling is designing a single principled model that can address sequence data across a range of modalities and tasks, particularly on long-range dependencies. Although conventional models including RNNs, CNNs, and Transformers have specialized variants for capturing long dependencies, they still struggle to scale to very long sequences of 10000 or more steps. A promising recent approach proposed modeling sequences by simulating the fundamental state space model (SSM) \( x'(t) = Ax(t) + Bu(t), y(t) = Cx(t) + Du(t) \), and showed that for appropriate choices of the state matrix \( A \), this system could handle long-range dependencies mathematically and empirically. However, this method has prohibitive computation and memory requirements, rendering it infeasible as a general sequence modeling solution. We propose the Structured State Space sequence model (S4) based on a new parameterization for the SSM, and show that it can be computed much more efficiently than prior approaches while preserving their theoretical strengths. Our technique involves conditioning \( A \) with a low-rank correction, allowing it to be diagonalized stably and reducing the SSM to the well-studied computation of a Cauchy kernel. S4 achieves strong empirical results across a diverse range of established benchmarks, including (i) 91\% accuracy on sequential CIFAR-10 with no data augmentation or auxiliary losses, on par with a larger 2-D ResNet, (ii) substantially closing the gap to Transformers on image and language modeling tasks, while performing generation 60times faster (iii) SoTA on every task from the Long Range Arena benchmark, including solving the challenging Path-X task of length 16k that all prior work fails on, while being as efficient as all competitors.

Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying uncertainty in predictions. This study aims to tackle these critical limitations by introducing adapters; feature-space transformations that facilitate the effective use of pre-trained univariate time series FMs for multivariate tasks. Adapters operate by projecting multivariate inputs into a suitable latent space and applying the FM independently to each dimension. Inspired by the literature on representation learning and partially stochastic Bayesian neural networks, we present a range of adapters and optimization/inference strategies. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the efficacy of adapters, demonstrating substantial enhancements in forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods. Our framework, AdaPTS, positions adapters as a modular, scalable, and effective solution for leveraging time series FMs in multivariate contexts, thereby promoting their wider adoption in real-world applications. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/AdaPTS.

In recent years, the advent of foundation models (FM) for digital pathology has relied heavily on scaling the pre-training datasets and the model size, yielding large and powerful models. While it resulted in improving the performance on diverse downstream tasks, it also introduced increased computational cost and inference time. In this work, we explore the distillation of a large foundation model into a smaller one, reducing the number of parameters by several orders of magnitude. Leveraging distillation techniques, our distilled model, H0-mini, achieves nearly comparable performance to large FMs at a significantly reduced inference cost. It is evaluated on several public benchmarks, achieving 3rd place on the HEST benchmark and 5th place on the EVA benchmark. Additionally, a robustness analysis conducted on the PLISM dataset demonstrates that our distilled model reaches excellent robustness to variations in staining and scanning conditions, significantly outperforming other state-of-the art models. This opens new perspectives to design lightweight and robust models for digital pathology, without compromising on performance.

Large language models have been shown to achieve remarkable performance across a variety of natural language tasks using few-shot learning, which drastically reduces the number of task-specific training examples needed to adapt the model to a particular application. To further our understanding of the impact of scale on few-shot learning, we trained a 540-billion parameter, densely activated, Transformer language model, which we call Pathways Language Model PaLM. We trained PaLM on 6144 TPU v4 chips using Pathways, a new ML system which enables highly efficient training across multiple TPU Pods. We demonstrate continued benefits of scaling by achieving state-of-the-art few-shot learning results on hundreds of language understanding and generation benchmarks. On a number of these tasks, PaLM 540B achieves breakthrough performance, outperforming the finetuned state-of-the-art on a suite of multi-step reasoning tasks, and outperforming average human performance on the recently released BIG-bench benchmark. A significant number of BIG-bench tasks showed discontinuous improvements from model scale, meaning that performance steeply increased as we scaled to our largest model. PaLM also has strong capabilities in multilingual tasks and source code generation, which we demonstrate on a wide array of benchmarks. We additionally provide a comprehensive analysis on bias and toxicity, and study the extent of training data memorization with respect to model scale. Finally, we discuss the ethical considerations related to large language models and discuss potential mitigation strategies.

Foundational models with billions of parameters which have been trained on large corpora of data have demonstrated non-trivial skills in a variety of domains. However, due to their monolithic structure, it is challenging and expensive to augment them or impart new skills. On the other hand, due to their adaptation abilities, several new instances of these models are being trained towards new domains and tasks. In this work, we study the problem of efficient and practical composition of existing foundation models with more specific models to enable newer capabilities. To this end, we propose CALM -- Composition to Augment Language Models -- which introduces cross-attention between models to compose their representations and enable new capabilities. Salient features of CALM are: (i) Scales up LLMs on new tasks by 're-using' existing LLMs along with a few additional parameters and data, (ii) Existing model weights are kept intact, and hence preserves existing capabilities, and (iii) Applies to diverse domains and settings. We illustrate that augmenting PaLM2-S with a smaller model trained on low-resource languages results in an absolute improvement of up to 13\% on tasks like translation into English and arithmetic reasoning for low-resource languages. Similarly, when PaLM2-S is augmented with a code-specific model, we see a relative improvement of 40\% over the base model for code generation and explanation tasks -- on-par with fully fine-tuned counterparts.

It is a common belief that large language models (LLMs) are better than smaller-sized ones. However, larger models also require significantly more time and compute during inference. This begs the question: what happens when both models operate under the same budget? (e.g., compute, run-time). To address this question, we analyze code generation LLMs of various sizes and make comparisons such as running a 70B model once vs. generating five outputs from a 13B model. We consider a standard unit-test setup, which can be used to select the correct output from the smaller model. Our findings reveal that the repeated use of smaller models can yield consistent improvements, with gains of up to 15% across five tasks. On the other hand, in scenarios where unit-tests are unavailable, a ranking-based selection of candidates from the smaller model falls short of the performance of a single output from larger ones. Our results highlight the potential of using smaller models instead of larger ones, and the importance of studying approaches for ranking LLM outputs.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) were recently proposed as a new paradigm for machine learning. Instead of training the network to an observed training set, a fixed model is pre-trained offline on small, simulated training sets from a variety of tasks. The pre-trained model is then used to infer class probabilities in-context on fresh training sets with arbitrary size and distribution. Empirically, PFNs achieve state-of-the-art performance on tasks with similar size to the ones used in pre-training. Surprisingly, their accuracy further improves when passed larger data sets during inference. This article establishes a theoretical foundation for PFNs and illuminates the statistical mechanisms governing their behavior. While PFNs are motivated by Bayesian ideas, a purely frequentistic interpretation of PFNs as pre-tuned, but untrained predictors explains their behavior. A predictor's variance vanishes if its sensitivity to individual training samples does and the bias vanishes only if it is appropriately localized around the test feature. The transformer architecture used in current PFN implementations ensures only the former. These findings shall prove useful for designing architectures with favorable empirical behavior.

Learning curve extrapolation aims to predict model performance in later epochs of training, based on the performance in earlier epochs. In this work, we argue that, while the inherent uncertainty in the extrapolation of learning curves warrants a Bayesian approach, existing methods are (i) overly restrictive, and/or (ii) computationally expensive. We describe the first application of prior-data fitted neural networks (PFNs) in this context. A PFN is a transformer, pre-trained on data generated from a prior, to perform approximate Bayesian inference in a single forward pass. We propose LC-PFN, a PFN trained to extrapolate 10 million artificial right-censored learning curves generated from a parametric prior proposed in prior art using MCMC. We demonstrate that LC-PFN can approximate the posterior predictive distribution more accurately than MCMC, while being over 10 000 times faster. We also show that the same LC-PFN achieves competitive performance extrapolating a total of 20 000 real learning curves from four learning curve benchmarks (LCBench, NAS-Bench-201, Taskset, and PD1) that stem from training a wide range of model architectures (MLPs, CNNs, RNNs, and Transformers) on 53 different datasets with varying input modalities (tabular, image, text, and protein data). Finally, we investigate its potential in the context of model selection and find that a simple LC-PFN based predictive early stopping criterion obtains 2 - 6x speed-ups on 45 of these datasets, at virtually no overhead.

Continuous-time event sequences play a vital role in real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, online shopping, social networks, and so on. To model such data, temporal point processes (TPPs) have emerged as the most natural and competitive models, making a significant impact in both academic and application communities. Despite the emergence of many powerful models in recent years, there hasn't been a central benchmark for these models and future research endeavors. This lack of standardization impedes researchers and practitioners from comparing methods and reproducing results, potentially slowing down progress in this field. In this paper, we present EasyTPP, the first central repository of research assets (e.g., data, models, evaluation programs, documentations) in the area of event sequence modeling. Our EasyTPP makes several unique contributions to this area: a unified interface of using existing datasets and adding new datasets; a wide range of evaluation programs that are easy to use and extend as well as facilitate reproducible research; implementations of popular neural TPPs, together with a rich library of modules by composing which one could quickly build complex models. All the data and implementation can be found at https://github.com/ant-research/EasyTemporalPointProcess. We will actively maintain this benchmark and welcome contributions from other researchers and practitioners. Our benchmark will help promote reproducible research in this field, thus accelerating research progress as well as making more significant real-world impacts.

Tangent Model Composition (TMC) is a method to combine component models independently fine-tuned around a pre-trained point. Component models are tangent vectors to the pre-trained model that can be added, scaled, or subtracted to support incremental learning, ensembling, or unlearning. Component models are composed at inference time via scalar combination, reducing the cost of ensembling to that of a single model. TMC improves accuracy by 4.2% compared to ensembling non-linearly fine-tuned models at a 2.5x to 10x reduction of inference cost, growing linearly with the number of component models. Each component model can be forgotten at zero cost, with no residual effect on the resulting inference. When used for continual fine-tuning, TMC is not constrained by sequential bias and can be executed in parallel on federated data. TMC outperforms recently published continual fine-tuning methods almost uniformly on each setting -- task-incremental, class-incremental, and data-incremental -- on a total of 13 experiments across 3 benchmark datasets, despite not using any replay buffer. TMC is designed for composing models that are local to a pre-trained embedding, but could be extended to more general settings.

As the open-weight AI landscape continues to proliferate-with model development, significant investment, and user interest-it becomes increasingly important to predict which models will ultimately drive innovation and shape AI ecosystems. Building on parallels with citation dynamics in scientific literature, we propose a framework to quantify how an open-weight model's influence evolves. Specifically, we adapt the model introduced by Wang et al. for scientific citations, using three key parameters-immediacy, longevity, and relative fitness-to track the cumulative number of fine-tuned models of an open-weight model. Our findings reveal that this citation-style approach can effectively capture the diverse trajectories of open-weight model adoption, with most models fitting well and outliers indicating unique patterns or abrupt jumps in usage.

Numerical reasoning over text (NRoT) presents unique challenges that are not well addressed by existing pre-training objectives. We explore five sequential training schedules that adapt a pre-trained T5 model for NRoT. Our final model is adapted from T5, but further pre-trained on three datasets designed to strengthen skills necessary for NRoT and general reading comprehension before being fine-tuned on the Discrete Reasoning over Text (DROP) dataset. The training improves DROP's adjusted F1 performance (a numeracy-focused score) from 45.90 to 70.83. Our model closes in on GenBERT (72.4), a custom BERT-Base model using the same datasets with significantly more parameters. We show that training the T5 multitasking framework with multiple numerical reasoning datasets of increasing difficulty, good performance on DROP can be achieved without manually engineering partitioned functionality between distributed and symbol modules.

Foundation Models (FMs) are models trained on large corpora of data that, at very large scale, can generalize to new tasks without any task-specific finetuning. As these models continue to grow in size, innovations continue to push the boundaries of what these models can do on language and image tasks. This paper aims to understand an underexplored area of FMs: classical data tasks like cleaning and integration. As a proof-of-concept, we cast five data cleaning and integration tasks as prompting tasks and evaluate the performance of FMs on these tasks. We find that large FMs generalize and achieve SoTA performance on data cleaning and integration tasks, even though they are not trained for these data tasks. We identify specific research challenges and opportunities that these models present, including challenges with private and domain specific data, and opportunities to make data management systems more accessible to non-experts. We make our code and experiments publicly available at: https://github.com/HazyResearch/fm_data_tasks.

Model pruning seeks to induce sparsity in a deep neural network's various connection matrices, thereby reducing the number of nonzero-valued parameters in the model. Recent reports (Han et al., 2015; Narang et al., 2017) prune deep networks at the cost of only a marginal loss in accuracy and achieve a sizable reduction in model size. This hints at the possibility that the baseline models in these experiments are perhaps severely over-parameterized at the outset and a viable alternative for model compression might be to simply reduce the number of hidden units while maintaining the model's dense connection structure, exposing a similar trade-off in model size and accuracy. We investigate these two distinct paths for model compression within the context of energy-efficient inference in resource-constrained environments and propose a new gradual pruning technique that is simple and straightforward to apply across a variety of models/datasets with minimal tuning and can be seamlessly incorporated within the training process. We compare the accuracy of large, but pruned models (large-sparse) and their smaller, but dense (small-dense) counterparts with identical memory footprint. Across a broad range of neural network architectures (deep CNNs, stacked LSTM, and seq2seq LSTM models), we find large-sparse models to consistently outperform small-dense models and achieve up to 10x reduction in number of non-zero parameters with minimal loss in accuracy.

In this study, we introduce a novel platform Resource-Aware AutoML (RA-AutoML) which enables flexible and generalized algorithms to build machine learning models subjected to multiple objectives, as well as resource and hard-ware constraints. RA-AutoML intelligently conducts Hyper-Parameter Search(HPS) as well as Neural Architecture Search (NAS) to build models optimizing predefined objectives. RA-AutoML is a versatile framework that allows user to prescribe many resource/hardware constraints along with objectives demanded by the problem at hand or business requirements. At its core, RA-AutoML relies on our in-house search-engine algorithm,MOBOGA, which combines a modified constraint-aware Bayesian Optimization and Genetic Algorithm to construct Pareto optimal candidates. Our experiments on CIFAR-10 dataset shows very good accuracy compared to results obtained by state-of-art neural network models, while subjected to resource constraints in the form of model size.

Finding the optimal learning rate for language model pretraining is a challenging task. This is not only because there is a complicated correlation between learning rate, batch size, number of training tokens, model size, and other hyperparameters but also because it is prohibitively expensive to perform a hyperparameter search for large language models with Billions or Trillions of parameters. Recent studies propose using small proxy models and small corpus to perform hyperparameter searches and transposing the optimal parameters to large models and large corpus. While the zero-shot transferability is theoretically and empirically proven for model size related hyperparameters, like depth and width, the zero-shot transfer from small corpus to large corpus is underexplored. In this paper, we study the correlation between optimal learning rate, batch size, and number of training tokens for the recently proposed WSD scheduler. After thousands of small experiments, we found a power-law relationship between variables and demonstrated its transferability across model sizes. Based on the observation, we propose a new learning rate scheduler, Power scheduler, that is agnostic about the number of training tokens and batch size. The experiment shows that combining the Power scheduler with Maximum Update Parameterization (muP) can consistently achieve impressive performance with one set of hyperparameters regardless of the number of training tokens, batch size, model size, and even model architecture. Our 3B dense and MoE models trained with the Power scheduler achieve comparable performance as state-of-the-art small language models. We open-source these pretrained models at https://ibm.biz/BdKhLa.

While previous distribution shift detection approaches can identify if a shift has occurred, these approaches cannot localize which specific features have caused a distribution shift -- a critical step in diagnosing or fixing any underlying issue. For example, in military sensor networks, users will want to detect when one or more of the sensors has been compromised, and critically, they will want to know which specific sensors might be compromised. Thus, we first define a formalization of this problem as multiple conditional distribution hypothesis tests and propose both non-parametric and parametric statistical tests. For both efficiency and flexibility, we then propose to use a test statistic based on the density model score function (i.e. gradient with respect to the input) -- which can easily compute test statistics for all dimensions in a single forward and backward pass. Any density model could be used for computing the necessary statistics including deep density models such as normalizing flows or autoregressive models. We additionally develop methods for identifying when and where a shift occurs in multivariate time-series data and show results for multiple scenarios using realistic attack models on both simulated and real world data.

While neural networks can be approximated by linear models as their width increases, certain properties of wide neural networks cannot be captured by linear models. In this work we show that recently proposed Neural Quadratic Models can exhibit the "catapult phase" [Lewkowycz et al. 2020] that arises when training such models with large learning rates. We then empirically show that the behaviour of neural quadratic models parallels that of neural networks in generalization, especially in the catapult phase regime. Our analysis further demonstrates that quadratic models can be an effective tool for analysis of neural networks.