Daily Papers

In this paper, we consider the problem of bit allocation in Neural Video Compression (NVC). First, we reveal a fundamental relationship between bit allocation in NVC and Semi-Amortized Variational Inference (SAVI). Specifically, we show that SAVI with GoP (Group-of-Picture)-level likelihood is equivalent to pixel-level bit allocation with precise rate \& quality dependency model. Based on this equivalence, we establish a new paradigm of bit allocation using SAVI. Different from previous bit allocation methods, our approach requires no empirical model and is thus optimal. Moreover, as the original SAVI using gradient ascent only applies to single-level latent, we extend the SAVI to multi-level such as NVC by recursively applying back-propagating through gradient ascent. Finally, we propose a tractable approximation for practical implementation. Our method can be applied to scenarios where performance outweights encoding speed, and serves as an empirical bound on the R-D performance of bit allocation. Experimental results show that current state-of-the-art bit allocation algorithms still have a room of approx 0.5 dB PSNR to improve compared with ours. Code is available at https://github.com/tongdaxu/Bit-Allocation-Using-Optimization.

Large language models (LLMs) are displaying emergent abilities for math reasoning tasks,and there is a growing attention on enhancing the ability of open-source LLMs through supervised fine-tuning (SFT).In this paper, we aim to explore a general data strategy for supervised data to help optimize and expand math reasoning ability.Firstly, we determine the ability boundary of reasoning paths augmentation by identifying these paths' minimal optimal set.Secondly, we validate that different abilities of the model can be cumulatively enhanced by Mix of Minimal Optimal Sets of corresponding types of data, while our models MMOS achieve SOTA performance on series base models under much lower construction costs.Besides, we point out GSM-HARD is not really hard and today's LLMs no longer lack numerical robustness.Also, we provide an Auto Problem Generator for robustness testing and educational applications.Our code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/cyzhh/MMOS.

Mixup is a data augmentation strategy that employs convex combinations of training instances and their respective labels to augment the robustness and calibration of deep neural networks. Despite its widespread adoption, the nuanced mechanisms that underpin its success are not entirely understood. The observed phenomenon of Neural Collapse, where the last-layer activations and classifier of deep networks converge to a simplex equiangular tight frame (ETF), provides a compelling motivation to explore whether mixup induces alternative geometric configurations and whether those could explain its success. In this study, we delve into the last-layer activations of training data for deep networks subjected to mixup, aiming to uncover insights into its operational efficacy. Our investigation, spanning various architectures and dataset pairs, reveals that mixup's last-layer activations predominantly converge to a distinctive configuration different than one might expect. In this configuration, activations from mixed-up examples of identical classes align with the classifier, while those from different classes delineate channels along the decision boundary. Moreover, activations in earlier layers exhibit patterns, as if trained with manifold mixup. These findings are unexpected, as mixed-up features are not simple convex combinations of feature class means (as one might get, for example, by training mixup with the mean squared error loss). By analyzing this distinctive geometric configuration, we elucidate the mechanisms by which mixup enhances model calibration. To further validate our empirical observations, we conduct a theoretical analysis under the assumption of an unconstrained features model, utilizing the mixup loss. Through this, we characterize and derive the optimal last-layer features under the assumption that the classifier forms a simplex ETF.

Regret minimization in streaming multi-armed bandits (MABs) has been studied extensively in recent years. In the single-pass setting with K arms and T trials, a regret lower bound of Omega(T^{2/3}) has been proved for any algorithm with o(K) memory (Maiti et al. [NeurIPS'21]; Agarwal at al. [COLT'22]). On the other hand, however, the previous best regret upper bound is still O(K^{1/3} T^{2/3}log^{1/3}(T)), which is achieved by the streaming implementation of the simple uniform exploration. The O(K^{1/3}log^{1/3}(T)) gap leaves the open question of the tight regret bound in the single-pass MABs with sublinear arm memory. In this paper, we answer this open problem and complete the picture of regret minimization in single-pass streaming MABs. We first improve the regret lower bound to Omega(K^{1/3}T^{2/3}) for algorithms with o(K) memory, which matches the uniform exploration regret up to a logarithm factor in T. We then show that the log^{1/3}(T) factor is not necessary, and we can achieve O(K^{1/3}T^{2/3}) regret by finding an varepsilon-best arm and committing to it in the rest of the trials. For regret minimization with high constant probability, we can apply the single-memory varepsilon-best arm algorithms in Jin et al. [ICML'21] to obtain the optimal bound. Furthermore, for the expected regret minimization, we design an algorithm with a single-arm memory that achieves O(K^{1/3} T^{2/3}log(K)) regret, and an algorithm with O(log^{*}(n))-memory with the optimal O(K^{1/3} T^{2/3}) regret following the varepsilon-best arm algorithm in Assadi and Wang [STOC'20]. We further tested the empirical performances of our algorithms. The simulation results show that the proposed algorithms consistently outperform the benchmark uniform exploration algorithm by a large margin, and on occasion, reduce the regret by up to 70%.

We provide theoretical and empirical evidence that using tighter evidence lower bounds (ELBOs) can be detrimental to the process of learning an inference network by reducing the signal-to-noise ratio of the gradient estimator. Our results call into question common implicit assumptions that tighter ELBOs are better variational objectives for simultaneous model learning and inference amortization schemes. Based on our insights, we introduce three new algorithms: the partially importance weighted auto-encoder (PIWAE), the multiply importance weighted auto-encoder (MIWAE), and the combination importance weighted auto-encoder (CIWAE), each of which includes the standard importance weighted auto-encoder (IWAE) as a special case. We show that each can deliver improvements over IWAE, even when performance is measured by the IWAE target itself. Furthermore, our results suggest that PIWAE may be able to deliver simultaneous improvements in the training of both the inference and generative networks.

Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) have achieved strong performance across a range of vision and language tasks. However, their spatial reasoning capabilities are under-investigated. In this paper, we construct a novel VQA dataset, Spatial-MM, to comprehensively study LMMs' spatial understanding and reasoning capabilities. Our analyses on object-relationship and multi-hop reasoning reveal several important findings. Firstly, bounding boxes and scene graphs, even synthetic ones, can significantly enhance LMMs' spatial reasoning. Secondly, LMMs struggle more with questions posed from the human perspective than the camera perspective about the image. Thirdly, chain of thought (CoT) prompting does not improve model performance on complex multi-hop questions involving spatial relations. % Moreover, spatial reasoning steps are much less accurate than non-spatial ones across MLLMs. Lastly, our perturbation analysis on GQA-spatial reveals that LMMs are much stronger at basic object detection than complex spatial reasoning. We believe our benchmark dataset and in-depth analyses can spark further research on LMMs spatial reasoning. Spatial-MM benchmark is available at: https://github.com/FatemehShiri/Spatial-MM

Dueling bandits is a prominent framework for decision-making involving preferential feedback, a valuable feature that fits various applications involving human interaction, such as ranking, information retrieval, and recommendation systems. While substantial efforts have been made to minimize the cumulative regret in dueling bandits, a notable gap in the current research is the absence of regret bounds that account for the inherent uncertainty in pairwise comparisons between the dueling arms. Intuitively, greater uncertainty suggests a higher level of difficulty in the problem. To bridge this gap, this paper studies the problem of contextual dueling bandits, where the binary comparison of dueling arms is generated from a generalized linear model (GLM). We propose a new SupLinUCB-type algorithm that enjoys computational efficiency and a variance-aware regret bound tilde Obig(dsum_{t=1^Tsigma_t^2} + dbig), where sigma_t is the variance of the pairwise comparison in round t, d is the dimension of the context vectors, and T is the time horizon. Our regret bound naturally aligns with the intuitive expectation in scenarios where the comparison is deterministic, the algorithm only suffers from an tilde O(d) regret. We perform empirical experiments on synthetic data to confirm the advantage of our method over previous variance-agnostic algorithms.

We propose a new bound for generalization of neural networks using Koopman operators. Whereas most of existing works focus on low-rank weight matrices, we focus on full-rank weight matrices. Our bound is tighter than existing norm-based bounds when the condition numbers of weight matrices are small. Especially, it is completely independent of the width of the network if the weight matrices are orthogonal. Our bound does not contradict to the existing bounds but is a complement to the existing bounds. As supported by several existing empirical results, low-rankness is not the only reason for generalization. Furthermore, our bound can be combined with the existing bounds to obtain a tighter bound. Our result sheds new light on understanding generalization of neural networks with full-rank weight matrices, and it provides a connection between operator-theoretic analysis and generalization of neural networks.

Generalization bounds which assess the difference between the true risk and the empirical risk, have been studied extensively. However, to obtain bounds, current techniques use strict assumptions such as a uniformly bounded or a Lipschitz loss function. To avoid these assumptions, in this paper, we follow an alternative approach: we relax uniform bounds assumptions by using on-average bounded loss and on-average bounded gradient norm assumptions. Following this relaxation, we propose a new generalization bound that exploits the contractivity of the log-Sobolev inequalities. These inequalities add an additional loss-gradient norm term to the generalization bound, which is intuitively a surrogate of the model complexity. We apply the proposed bound on Bayesian deep nets and empirically analyze the effect of this new loss-gradient norm term on different neural architectures.

Zero-shot learning (ZSL) methods have been studied in the unrealistic setting where test data are assumed to come from unseen classes only. In this paper, we advocate studying the problem of generalized zero-shot learning (GZSL) where the test data's class memberships are unconstrained. We show empirically that naively using the classifiers constructed by ZSL approaches does not perform well in the generalized setting. Motivated by this, we propose a simple but effective calibration method that can be used to balance two conflicting forces: recognizing data from seen classes versus those from unseen ones. We develop a performance metric to characterize such a trade-off and examine the utility of this metric in evaluating various ZSL approaches. Our analysis further shows that there is a large gap between the performance of existing approaches and an upper bound established via idealized semantic embeddings, suggesting that improving class semantic embeddings is vital to GZSL.

Privacy estimation techniques for differentially private (DP) algorithms are useful for comparing against analytical bounds, or to empirically measure privacy loss in settings where known analytical bounds are not tight. However, existing privacy auditing techniques usually make strong assumptions on the adversary (e.g., knowledge of intermediate model iterates or the training data distribution), are tailored to specific tasks, model architectures, or DP algorithm, and/or require retraining the model many times (typically on the order of thousands). These shortcomings make deploying such techniques at scale difficult in practice, especially in federated settings where model training can take days or weeks. In this work, we present a novel ``one-shot'' approach that can systematically address these challenges, allowing efficient auditing or estimation of the privacy loss of a model during the same, single training run used to fit model parameters, and without requiring any a priori knowledge about the model architecture, task, or DP training algorithm. We show that our method provides provably correct estimates for the privacy loss under the Gaussian mechanism, and we demonstrate its performance on well-established FL benchmark datasets under several adversarial threat models.

This paper introduces a new parameterization of deep neural networks (both fully-connected and convolutional) with guaranteed ell^2 Lipschitz bounds, i.e. limited sensitivity to input perturbations. The Lipschitz guarantees are equivalent to the tightest-known bounds based on certification via a semidefinite program (SDP). We provide a ``direct'' parameterization, i.e., a smooth mapping from mathbb R^N onto the set of weights satisfying the SDP-based bound. Moreover, our parameterization is complete, i.e. a neural network satisfies the SDP bound if and only if it can be represented via our parameterization. This enables training using standard gradient methods, without any inner approximation or computationally intensive tasks (e.g. projections or barrier terms) for the SDP constraint. The new parameterization can equivalently be thought of as either a new layer type (the sandwich layer), or a novel parameterization of standard feedforward networks with parameter sharing between neighbouring layers. A comprehensive set of experiments on image classification shows that sandwich layers outperform previous approaches on both empirical and certified robust accuracy. Code is available at https://github.com/acfr/LBDN.

The binding energies of the five bound rotational levels J=0-4 in the highest vibrational level v=14 in the X^1Sigma_g^+ ground electronic state of H_2 were measured in a three-step ultraviolet-laser experiment. Two-photon UV-photolysis of H_2S produced population in these high-lying bound states, that were subsequently interrogated at high precision via Doppler-free spectroscopy of the F^1Sigma_g^+ - X^1Sigma_g^+ system. A third UV-laser was used for detection through auto-ionizing resonances. The experimentally determined binding energies were found to be in excellent agreement with calculations based on non-adiabatic perturbation theory, also including relativistic and quantum electrodynamical contributions. The s-wave scattering length of the H + H system is derived from the binding energy of the last bound J=0 level via a direct semi-empirical approach, yielding a value of a_s = 0.2724(5) a_0, in good agreement with a result from a previously followed theoretical approach. The subtle effect of the malpha^4 relativity contribution to a_s was found to be significant. In a similar manner a value for the p-wave scattering volume is determined via the J=1 binding energy yielding a_p = -134.0000(6) a_0^3. The binding energy of the last bound state in H_2, the (v=14, J=4) level, is determined at 0.023(4) cm^{-1}, in good agreement with calculation. The effect of the hyperfine substructure caused by the two hydrogen atoms at large internuclear separation, giving rise to three distinct dissociation limits, is discussed.

The autoencoder is an unsupervised learning paradigm that aims to create a compact latent representation of data by minimizing the reconstruction loss. However, it tends to overlook the fact that most data (images) are embedded in a lower-dimensional space, which is crucial for effective data representation. To address this limitation, we propose a novel approach called Low-Rank Autoencoder (LoRAE). In LoRAE, we incorporated a low-rank regularizer to adaptively reconstruct a low-dimensional latent space while preserving the basic objective of an autoencoder. This helps embed the data in a lower-dimensional space while preserving important information. It is a simple autoencoder extension that learns low-rank latent space. Theoretically, we establish a tighter error bound for our model. Empirically, our model's superiority shines through various tasks such as image generation and downstream classification. Both theoretical and practical outcomes highlight the importance of acquiring low-dimensional embeddings.

The recent Segment Anything Model (SAM) 2 has demonstrated remarkable foundational competence in semantic segmentation, with its memory mechanism and mask decoder further addressing challenges in video tracking and object occlusion, thereby achieving superior results in interactive segmentation for both images and videos. Building upon our previous empirical studies, we further explore the zero-shot segmentation performance of SAM 2 in robot-assisted surgery based on prompts, alongside its robustness against real-world corruption. For static images, we employ two forms of prompts: 1-point and bounding box, while for video sequences, the 1-point prompt is applied to the initial frame. Through extensive experimentation on the MICCAI EndoVis 2017 and EndoVis 2018 benchmarks, SAM 2, when utilizing bounding box prompts, outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods in comparative evaluations. The results with point prompts also exhibit a substantial enhancement over SAM's capabilities, nearing or even surpassing existing unprompted SOTA methodologies. Besides, SAM 2 demonstrates improved inference speed and less performance degradation against various image corruption. Although slightly unsatisfactory results remain in specific edges or regions, SAM 2's robust adaptability to 1-point prompts underscores its potential for downstream surgical tasks with limited prompt requirements.

Computing the optimal transport distance between statistical distributions is a fundamental task in machine learning. One remarkable recent advancement is entropic regularization and the Sinkhorn algorithm, which utilizes only matrix scaling and guarantees an approximated solution with near-linear runtime. Despite the success of the Sinkhorn algorithm, its runtime may still be slow due to the potentially large number of iterations needed for convergence. To achieve possibly super-exponential convergence, we present Sinkhorn-Newton-Sparse (SNS), an extension to the Sinkhorn algorithm, by introducing early stopping for the matrix scaling steps and a second stage featuring a Newton-type subroutine. Adopting the variational viewpoint that the Sinkhorn algorithm maximizes a concave Lyapunov potential, we offer the insight that the Hessian matrix of the potential function is approximately sparse. Sparsification of the Hessian results in a fast O(n^2) per-iteration complexity, the same as the Sinkhorn algorithm. In terms of total iteration count, we observe that the SNS algorithm converges orders of magnitude faster across a wide range of practical cases, including optimal transportation between empirical distributions and calculating the Wasserstein W_1, W_2 distance of discretized densities. The empirical performance is corroborated by a rigorous bound on the approximate sparsity of the Hessian matrix.

We consider the problem of learning the best possible policy from a fixed dataset, known as offline Reinforcement Learning (RL). A common taxonomy of existing offline RL works is policy regularization, which typically constrains the learned policy by distribution or support of the behavior policy. However, distribution and support constraints are overly conservative since they both force the policy to choose similar actions as the behavior policy when considering particular states. It will limit the learned policy's performance, especially when the behavior policy is sub-optimal. In this paper, we find that regularizing the policy towards the nearest state-action pair can be more effective and thus propose Policy Regularization with Dataset Constraint (PRDC). When updating the policy in a given state, PRDC searches the entire dataset for the nearest state-action sample and then restricts the policy with the action of this sample. Unlike previous works, PRDC can guide the policy with proper behaviors from the dataset, allowing it to choose actions that do not appear in the dataset along with the given state. It is a softer constraint but still keeps enough conservatism from out-of-distribution actions. Empirical evidence and theoretical analysis show that PRDC can alleviate offline RL's fundamentally challenging value overestimation issue with a bounded performance gap. Moreover, on a set of locomotion and navigation tasks, PRDC achieves state-of-the-art performance compared with existing methods. Code is available at https://github.com/LAMDA-RL/PRDC

In this paper, we study the importance of pruning in Deep Networks (DNs) and the yin & yang relationship between (1) pruning highly overparametrized DNs that have been trained from random initialization and (2) training small DNs that have been "cleverly" initialized. As in most cases practitioners can only resort to random initialization, there is a strong need to develop a grounded understanding of DN pruning. Current literature remains largely empirical, lacking a theoretical understanding of how pruning affects DNs' decision boundary, how to interpret pruning, and how to design corresponding principled pruning techniques. To tackle those questions, we propose to employ recent advances in the theoretical analysis of Continuous Piecewise Affine (CPA) DNs. From this perspective, we will be able to detect the early-bird (EB) ticket phenomenon, provide interpretability into current pruning techniques, and develop a principled pruning strategy. In each step of our study, we conduct extensive experiments supporting our claims and results; while our main goal is to enhance the current understanding towards DN pruning instead of developing a new pruning method, our spline pruning criteria in terms of layerwise and global pruning is on par with or even outperforms state-of-the-art pruning methods.

This paper presents Diffusion Forcing, a new training paradigm where a diffusion model is trained to denoise a set of tokens with independent per-token noise levels. We apply Diffusion Forcing to sequence generative modeling by training a causal next-token prediction model to generate one or several future tokens without fully diffusing past ones. Our approach is shown to combine the strengths of next-token prediction models, such as variable-length generation, with the strengths of full-sequence diffusion models, such as the ability to guide sampling to desirable trajectories. Our method offers a range of additional capabilities, such as (1) rolling-out sequences of continuous tokens, such as video, with lengths past the training horizon, where baselines diverge and (2) new sampling and guiding schemes that uniquely profit from Diffusion Forcing's variable-horizon and causal architecture, and which lead to marked performance gains in decision-making and planning tasks. In addition to its empirical success, our method is proven to optimize a variational lower bound on the likelihoods of all subsequences of tokens drawn from the true joint distribution. Project website: https://boyuan.space/diffusion-forcing/

While Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have long been investigated and applied, as well as theorized, we aim to provide a slightly different perspective into their nature -- through the perspective of their Hessian maps. The reason is that the loss Hessian captures the pairwise interaction of parameters and therefore forms a natural ground to probe how the architectural aspects of CNN get manifested in its structure and properties. We develop a framework relying on Toeplitz representation of CNNs, and then utilize it to reveal the Hessian structure and, in particular, its rank. We prove tight upper bounds (with linear activations), which closely follow the empirical trend of the Hessian rank and hold in practice in more general settings. Overall, our work generalizes and establishes the key insight that, even in CNNs, the Hessian rank grows as the square root of the number of parameters.

In the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, a randomized probability matching policy called Thompson sampling (TS) has shown excellent performance in various reward models. In addition to the empirical performance, TS has been shown to achieve asymptotic problem-dependent lower bounds in several models. However, its optimality has been mainly addressed under light-tailed or one-parameter models that belong to exponential families. In this paper, we consider the optimality of TS for the Pareto model that has a heavy tail and is parameterized by two unknown parameters. Specifically, we discuss the optimality of TS with probability matching priors that include the Jeffreys prior and the reference priors. We first prove that TS with certain probability matching priors can achieve the optimal regret bound. Then, we show the suboptimality of TS with other priors, including the Jeffreys and the reference priors. Nevertheless, we find that TS with the Jeffreys and reference priors can achieve the asymptotic lower bound if one uses a truncation procedure. These results suggest carefully choosing noninformative priors to avoid suboptimality and show the effectiveness of truncation procedures in TS-based policies.

Training a neural network requires choosing a suitable learning rate, which involves a trade-off between speed and effectiveness of convergence. While there has been considerable theoretical and empirical analysis of how large the learning rate can be, most prior work focuses only on late-stage training. In this work, we introduce the maximal initial learning rate eta^{ast} - the largest learning rate at which a randomly initialized neural network can successfully begin training and achieve (at least) a given threshold accuracy. Using a simple approach to estimate eta^{ast}, we observe that in constant-width fully-connected ReLU networks, eta^{ast} behaves differently from the maximum learning rate later in training. Specifically, we find that eta^{ast} is well predicted as a power of depth times width, provided that (i) the width of the network is sufficiently large compared to the depth, and (ii) the input layer is trained at a relatively small learning rate. We further analyze the relationship between eta^{ast} and the sharpness lambda_{1} of the network at initialization, indicating they are closely though not inversely related. We formally prove bounds for lambda_{1} in terms of depth times width that align with our empirical results.

Speculative decoding is an inference-acceleration method for large language models (LLMs) where a small language model generates a draft-token sequence which is further verified by the target LLM in parallel. Recent works have advanced this method by establishing a draft-token tree, achieving superior performance over a single-sequence speculative decoding. However, those works independently generate tokens at each level of the tree, not leveraging the tree's entire diversifiability. Besides, their empirical superiority has been shown for fixed length of sequences, implicitly granting more computational resource to LLM for the tree-based methods. None of the existing works has conducted empirical studies with fixed target computational budgets despite its importance to resource-bounded devices. We present Recursive Speculative Decoding (RSD), a novel tree-based method that samples draft tokens without replacement and maximizes the diversity of the tree. During RSD's drafting, the tree is built by either Gumbel-Top-k trick that draws tokens without replacement in parallel or Stochastic Beam Search that samples sequences without replacement while early-truncating unlikely draft sequences and reducing the computational cost of LLM. We empirically evaluate RSD with Llama 2 and OPT models, showing that RSD outperforms the baseline methods, consistently for fixed draft sequence length and in most cases for fixed computational budgets at LLM.

Owing to the capability of in-context learning, large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance across diverse mathematical reasoning benchmarks. However, we find that few-shot demonstrations can sometimes bring negative performance and their effectiveness on LLMs' reasoning abilities remains unreliable. To this end, in this paper, we aim to theoretically analyze the impact of in-context demonstrations on LLMs' reasoning performance. We prove that the reasoning efficacy (measured by empirical prediction loss) can be bounded by a LLM-oriented semantic similarity and an inference stability of demonstrations, which is general for both one-shot and few-shot scenarios. Based on this finding, we propose a straightforward, generalizable, and low-complexity demonstration selection method named LMS3. It can adaptively facilitate to select the most pertinent samples for different LLMs and includes a novel demonstration rejection mechanism to automatically filter out samples that are unsuitable for few-shot learning. Through experiments on three representative benchmarks, two LLM backbones, and multiple few-shot settings, we verify that our LMS3 has superiority and achieves consistent improvements on all datasets, which existing methods have been unable to accomplish.

Model merging has recently emerged as a cost-efficient paradigm for multi-task learning. Among current approaches, task arithmetic stands out for its simplicity and effectiveness. In this paper, we motivate the effectiveness of task vectors by linking them to multi-task gradients. We show that in a single-epoch scenario, task vectors are mathematically equivalent to the gradients obtained via gradient descent in a multi-task setting, and still approximate these gradients in subsequent epochs. Furthermore, we show that task vectors perform optimally when equality is maintained, and their effectiveness is largely driven by the first epoch's gradient. Building on this insight, we propose viewing model merging as a single step in an iterative process that Alternates between Tuning and Merging (ATM). This method acts as a bridge between model merging and multi-task gradient descent, achieving state-of-the-art results with the same data and computational requirements. We extensively evaluate ATM across diverse settings, achieving up to 20% higher accuracy in computer vision and NLP tasks, compared to the best baselines. Finally, we provide both empirical and theoretical support for its effectiveness, demonstrating increased orthogonality between task vectors and proving that ATM minimizes an upper bound on the loss obtained by jointly finetuning all tasks.

Learning decompositions of expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions promises to scale Bayesian optimisation (BO) to high-dimensional problems. However, the success of these techniques depends on finding proper decompositions that accurately represent the black-box. While previous works learn those decompositions based on data, we investigate data-independent decomposition sampling rules in this paper. We find that data-driven learners of decompositions can be easily misled towards local decompositions that do not hold globally across the search space. Then, we formally show that a random tree-based decomposition sampler exhibits favourable theoretical guarantees that effectively trade off maximal information gain and functional mismatch between the actual black-box and its surrogate as provided by the decomposition. Those results motivate the development of the random decomposition upper-confidence bound algorithm (RDUCB) that is straightforward to implement - (almost) plug-and-play - and, surprisingly, yields significant empirical gains compared to the previous state-of-the-art on a comprehensive set of benchmarks. We also confirm the plug-and-play nature of our modelling component by integrating our method with HEBO, showing improved practical gains in the highest dimensional tasks from Bayesmark.

Game theory, as an analytical tool, is frequently utilized to analyze human behavior in social science research. With the high alignment between the behavior of Large Language Models (LLMs) and humans, a promising research direction is to employ LLMs as substitutes for humans in game experiments, enabling social science research. However, despite numerous empirical researches on the combination of LLMs and game theory, the capability boundaries of LLMs in game theory remain unclear. In this research, we endeavor to systematically analyze LLMs in the context of game theory. Specifically, rationality, as the fundamental principle of game theory, serves as the metric for evaluating players' behavior -- building a clear desire, refining belief about uncertainty, and taking optimal actions. Accordingly, we select three classical games (dictator game, Rock-Paper-Scissors, and ring-network game) to analyze to what extent LLMs can achieve rationality in these three aspects. The experimental results indicate that even the current state-of-the-art LLM (GPT-4) exhibits substantial disparities compared to humans in game theory. For instance, LLMs struggle to build desires based on uncommon preferences, fail to refine belief from many simple patterns, and may overlook or modify refined belief when taking actions. Therefore, we consider that introducing LLMs into game experiments in the field of social science should be approached with greater caution.

We performed a billion locality sensitive hash comparisons between artificially generated data samples to answer the critical question - can we verify the "correctness" of generative AI output in a non-deterministic, trustless, decentralized network? We generate millions of data samples from a variety of open source diffusion and large language models and describe the procedures and trade-offs between generating more verses less deterministic output in a heterogenous, stochastic network. Further, we analyze the outputs to provide empirical evidence of different parameterizations of tolerance and error bounds for verification. Finally, given that we have the generated an enormous amount of simulated data, we also release a new training dataset called ImageNet-Gen for use in augmenting existing training pipelines. For our results, we show that with a majority vote between three independent verifiers, we can detect image generated perceptual collisions in generated AI with over 99.89% probability and less than 0.0267% chance of intra-class collision. For large language models (LLMs), we are able to gain 100% consensus using greedy methods or n-way beam searches to generate consensus demonstrated on different LLMs. In the context of generative AI training, we pinpoint and minimize the major sources of stochasticity and present gossip and synchronization training techniques for verifiability. Thus, this work provides a practical, solid foundation for AI verification and consensus for the minimization of trust in a decentralized network.

Heavy-tail phenomena in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) have been reported in several empirical studies. Experimental evidence in previous works suggests a strong interplay between the heaviness of the tails and generalization behavior of SGD. To address this empirical phenomena theoretically, several works have made strong topological and statistical assumptions to link the generalization error to heavy tails. Very recently, new generalization bounds have been proven, indicating a non-monotonic relationship between the generalization error and heavy tails, which is more pertinent to the reported empirical observations. While these bounds do not require additional topological assumptions given that SGD can be modeled using a heavy-tailed stochastic differential equation (SDE), they can only apply to simple quadratic problems. In this paper, we build on this line of research and develop generalization bounds for a more general class of objective functions, which includes non-convex functions as well. Our approach is based on developing Wasserstein stability bounds for heavy-tailed SDEs and their discretizations, which we then convert to generalization bounds. Our results do not require any nontrivial assumptions; yet, they shed more light to the empirical observations, thanks to the generality of the loss functions.

Effective regularization techniques are highly desired in deep learning for alleviating overfitting and improving generalization. This work proposes a new regularization scheme, based on the understanding that the flat local minima of the empirical risk cause the model to generalize better. This scheme is referred to as adversarial model perturbation (AMP), where instead of directly minimizing the empirical risk, an alternative "AMP loss" is minimized via SGD. Specifically, the AMP loss is obtained from the empirical risk by applying the "worst" norm-bounded perturbation on each point in the parameter space. Comparing with most existing regularization schemes, AMP has strong theoretical justifications, in that minimizing the AMP loss can be shown theoretically to favour flat local minima of the empirical risk. Extensive experiments on various modern deep architectures establish AMP as a new state of the art among regularization schemes. Our code is available at https://github.com/hiyouga/AMP-Regularizer.

The reduced basis method is a model reduction technique yielding substantial savings of computational time when a solution to a parametrized equation has to be computed for many values of the parameter. Certification of the approximation is possible by means of an a posteriori error bound. Under appropriate assumptions, this error bound is computed with an algorithm of complexity independent of the size of the full problem. In practice, the evaluation of the error bound can become very sensitive to round-off errors. We propose herein an explanation of this fact. A first remedy has been proposed in [F. Casenave, Accurate a posteriori error evaluation in the reduced basis method. C. R. Math. Acad. Sci. Paris 350 (2012) 539--542.]. Herein, we improve this remedy by proposing a new approximation of the error bound using the Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM). This method achieves higher levels of accuracy and requires potentially less precomputations than the usual formula. A version of the EIM stabilized with respect to round-off errors is also derived. The method is illustrated on a simple one-dimensional diffusion problem and a three-dimensional acoustic scattering problem solved by a boundary element method.

This research introduces a novel evaluation framework designed to assess large language models' (LLMs) ability to acknowledge uncertainty on 675 fundamentally unsolvable problems. Using a curated dataset of graduate-level grand challenge questions with intentionally unknowable answers, we evaluated twelve state-of-the-art LLMs, including both open and closed-source models, on their propensity to admit ignorance rather than generate plausible but incorrect responses. The best models scored in 62-68% accuracy ranges for admitting the problem solution was unknown in fields ranging from biology to philosophy and mathematics. We observed an inverse relationship between problem difficulty and model accuracy, with GPT-4 demonstrating higher rates of uncertainty acknowledgment on more challenging problems (35.8%) compared to simpler ones (20.0%). This pattern indicates that models may be more prone to generate speculative answers when problems appear more tractable. The study also revealed significant variations across problem categories, with models showing difficulty in acknowledging uncertainty in invention and NP-hard problems while performing relatively better on philosophical and psychological challenges. These results contribute to the growing body of research on artificial general intelligence (AGI) assessment by highlighting the importance of uncertainty recognition as a critical component of future machine intelligence evaluation. This impossibility test thus extends previous theoretical frameworks for universal intelligence testing by providing empirical evidence of current limitations in LLMs' ability to recognize their own knowledge boundaries, suggesting new directions for improving model training architectures and evaluation approaches.

Lipschitz continuity is a crucial functional property of any predictive model, that naturally governs its robustness, generalisation, as well as adversarial vulnerability. Contrary to other works that focus on obtaining tighter bounds and developing different practical strategies to enforce certain Lipschitz properties, we aim to thoroughly examine and characterise the Lipschitz behaviour of Neural Networks. Thus, we carry out an empirical investigation in a range of different settings (namely, architectures, datasets, label noise, and more) by exhausting the limits of the simplest and the most general lower and upper bounds. As a highlight of this investigation, we showcase a remarkable fidelity of the lower Lipschitz bound, identify a striking Double Descent trend in both upper and lower bounds to the Lipschitz and explain the intriguing effects of label noise on function smoothness and generalisation.

Adversarial training, which is to enhance robustness against adversarial attacks, has received much attention because it is easy to generate human-imperceptible perturbations of data to deceive a given deep neural network. In this paper, we propose a new adversarial training algorithm that is theoretically well motivated and empirically superior to other existing algorithms. A novel feature of the proposed algorithm is to apply more regularization to data vulnerable to adversarial attacks than other existing regularization algorithms do. Theoretically, we show that our algorithm can be understood as an algorithm of minimizing the regularized empirical risk motivated from a newly derived upper bound of the robust risk. Numerical experiments illustrate that our proposed algorithm improves the generalization (accuracy on examples) and robustness (accuracy on adversarial attacks) simultaneously to achieve the state-of-the-art performance.

We consider the neural contextual bandit problem. In contrast to the existing work which primarily focuses on ReLU neural nets, we consider a general set of smooth activation functions. Under this more general setting, (i) we derive non-asymptotic error bounds on the difference between an overparameterized neural net and its corresponding neural tangent kernel, (ii) we propose an algorithm with a provably sublinear regret bound that is also efficient in the finite regime as demonstrated by empirical studies. The non-asymptotic error bounds may be of broader interest as a tool to establish the relation between the smoothness of the activation functions in neural contextual bandits and the smoothness of the kernels in kernel bandits.

While score-based generative models (SGMs) have achieved remarkable success in enormous image generation tasks, their mathematical foundations are still limited. In this paper, we analyze the approximation and generalization of SGMs in learning a family of sub-Gaussian probability distributions. We introduce a notion of complexity for probability distributions in terms of their relative density with respect to the standard Gaussian measure. We prove that if the log-relative density can be locally approximated by a neural network whose parameters can be suitably bounded, then the distribution generated by empirical score matching approximates the target distribution in total variation with a dimension-independent rate. We illustrate our theory through examples, which include certain mixtures of Gaussians. An essential ingredient of our proof is to derive a dimension-free deep neural network approximation rate for the true score function associated with the forward process, which is interesting in its own right.

Imposing orthogonality on the layers of neural networks is known to facilitate the learning by limiting the exploding/vanishing of the gradient; decorrelate the features; improve the robustness. This paper studies the theoretical properties of orthogonal convolutional layers.We establish necessary and sufficient conditions on the layer architecture guaranteeing the existence of an orthogonal convolutional transform. The conditions prove that orthogonal convolutional transforms exist for almost all architectures used in practice for 'circular' padding.We also exhibit limitations with 'valid' boundary conditions and 'same' boundary conditions with zero-padding.Recently, a regularization term imposing the orthogonality of convolutional layers has been proposed, and impressive empirical results have been obtained in different applications (Wang et al. 2020).The second motivation of the present paper is to specify the theory behind this.We make the link between this regularization term and orthogonality measures. In doing so, we show that this regularization strategy is stable with respect to numerical and optimization errors and that, in the presence of small errors and when the size of the signal/image is large, the convolutional layers remain close to isometric.The theoretical results are confirmed with experiments and the landscape of the regularization term is studied. Experiments on real data sets show that when orthogonality is used to enforce robustness, the parameter multiplying the regularization termcan be used to tune a tradeoff between accuracy and orthogonality, for the benefit of both accuracy and robustness.Altogether, the study guarantees that the regularization proposed in Wang et al. (2020) is an efficient, flexible and stable numerical strategy to learn orthogonal convolutional layers.

Despite the widespread empirical success of ResNet, the generalization properties of deep ResNet are rarely explored beyond the lazy training regime. In this work, we investigate scaled ResNet in the limit of infinitely deep and wide neural networks, of which the gradient flow is described by a partial differential equation in the large-neural network limit, i.e., the mean-field regime. To derive the generalization bounds under this setting, our analysis necessitates a shift from the conventional time-invariant Gram matrix employed in the lazy training regime to a time-variant, distribution-dependent version. To this end, we provide a global lower bound on the minimum eigenvalue of the Gram matrix under the mean-field regime. Besides, for the traceability of the dynamic of Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, we establish the linear convergence of the empirical error and estimate the upper bound of the KL divergence over parameters distribution. Finally, we build the uniform convergence for generalization bound via Rademacher complexity. Our results offer new insights into the generalization ability of deep ResNet beyond the lazy training regime and contribute to advancing the understanding of the fundamental properties of deep neural networks.

We consider the task of identifying the Copeland winner(s) in a dueling bandits problem with ternary feedback. This is an underexplored but practically relevant variant of the conventional dueling bandits problem, in which, in addition to strict preference between two arms, one may observe feedback in the form of an indifference. We provide a lower bound on the sample complexity for any learning algorithm finding the Copeland winner(s) with a fixed error probability. Moreover, we propose POCOWISTA, an algorithm with a sample complexity that almost matches this lower bound, and which shows excellent empirical performance, even for the conventional dueling bandits problem. For the case where the preference probabilities satisfy a specific type of stochastic transitivity, we provide a refined version with an improved worst case sample complexity.

The Sliced-Wasserstein distance (SW) is a computationally efficient and theoretically grounded alternative to the Wasserstein distance. Yet, the literature on its statistical properties -- or, more accurately, its generalization properties -- with respect to the distribution of slices, beyond the uniform measure, is scarce. To bring new contributions to this line of research, we leverage the PAC-Bayesian theory and a central observation that SW may be interpreted as an average risk, the quantity PAC-Bayesian bounds have been designed to characterize. We provide three types of results: i) PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds that hold on what we refer as adaptive Sliced-Wasserstein distances, i.e. SW defined with respect to arbitrary distributions of slices (among which data-dependent distributions), ii) a principled procedure to learn the distribution of slices that yields maximally discriminative SW, by optimizing our theoretical bounds, and iii) empirical illustrations of our theoretical findings.

We consider in this work quantities that can be obtained as limits of powers of parametrized matrices, for instance the inverse matrix or the logarithm of the determinant. Under the assumption of affine dependence in the parameters, we use the Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM) to derive an approximation for powers of these matrices, from which we derive a nonintrusive approximation for the aforementioned limits. We derive upper bounds of the error made by the obtained formula. Finally, numerical comparisons with classical intrusive and nonintrusive approximation techniques are provided: in the considered test-cases, our algorithm performs well compared to the nonintrusive ones.

We obtain almost sure bounds for the weighted sum sum_{n leq t} f(n){n}, where f(n) is a Steinhaus random multiplicative function. Specifically, we obtain the bounds predicted by exponentiating the law of the iterated logarithm, giving sharp upper and lower bounds.

We introduce a boosting algorithm to pre-process data for fairness. Starting from an initial fair but inaccurate distribution, our approach shifts towards better data fitting while still ensuring a minimal fairness guarantee. To do so, it learns the sufficient statistics of an exponential family with boosting-compliant convergence. Importantly, we are able to theoretically prove that the learned distribution will have a representation rate and statistical rate data fairness guarantee. Unlike recent optimization based pre-processing methods, our approach can be easily adapted for continuous domain features. Furthermore, when the weak learners are specified to be decision trees, the sufficient statistics of the learned distribution can be examined to provide clues on sources of (un)fairness. Empirical results are present to display the quality of result on real-world data.

We study the notion of a generalization bound being uniformly tight, meaning that the difference between the bound and the population loss is small for all learning algorithms and all population distributions. Numerous generalization bounds have been proposed in the literature as potential explanations for the ability of neural networks to generalize in the overparameterized setting. However, in their paper ``Fantastic Generalization Measures and Where to Find Them,'' Jiang et al. (2020) examine more than a dozen generalization bounds, and show empirically that none of them are uniformly tight. This raises the question of whether uniformly-tight generalization bounds are at all possible in the overparameterized setting. We consider two types of generalization bounds: (1) bounds that may depend on the training set and the learned hypothesis (e.g., margin bounds). We prove mathematically that no such bound can be uniformly tight in the overparameterized setting; (2) bounds that may in addition also depend on the learning algorithm (e.g., stability bounds). For these bounds, we show a trade-off between the algorithm's performance and the bound's tightness. Namely, if the algorithm achieves good accuracy on certain distributions, then no generalization bound can be uniformly tight for it in the overparameterized setting. We explain how these formal results can, in our view, inform research on generalization bounds for neural networks, while stressing that other interpretations of these results are also possible.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) when unobserved confounders have a bounded effect on the odds ratio of treatment selection. Our approach is scalable and allows flexible use of model classes in estimation, including nonparametric and black-box machine learning methods. Based on these bounds for the CATE, we propose a sensitivity analysis for the average treatment effect (ATE). Our semi-parametric estimator extends/bounds the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator for the ATE under bounded unobserved confounding. By constructing a Neyman orthogonal score, our estimator of the bound for the ATE is a regular root-n estimator so long as the nuisance parameters are estimated at the o_p(n^{-1/4}) rate. We complement our methodology with optimality results showing that our proposed bounds are tight in certain cases. We demonstrate our method on simulated and real data examples, and show accurate coverage of our confidence intervals in practical finite sample regimes with rich covariate information.

In this paper, we revisit the problem of sparse linear regression in the local differential privacy (LDP) model. Existing research in the non-interactive and sequentially local models has focused on obtaining the lower bounds for the case where the underlying parameter is 1-sparse, and extending such bounds to the more general k-sparse case has proven to be challenging. Moreover, it is unclear whether efficient non-interactive LDP (NLDP) algorithms exist. To address these issues, we first consider the problem in the epsilon non-interactive LDP model and provide a lower bound of Omega(sqrt{dklog d}{nepsilon}) on the ell_2-norm estimation error for sub-Gaussian data, where n is the sample size and d is the dimension of the space. We propose an innovative NLDP algorithm, the very first of its kind for the problem. As a remarkable outcome, this algorithm also yields a novel and highly efficient estimator as a valuable by-product. Our algorithm achieves an upper bound of O({dsqrt{k}{nepsilon}}) for the estimation error when the data is sub-Gaussian, which can be further improved by a factor of O(d) if the server has additional public but unlabeled data. For the sequentially interactive LDP model, we show a similar lower bound of Omega({sqrt{dk}{nepsilon}}). As for the upper bound, we rectify a previous method and show that it is possible to achieve a bound of O(ksqrt{d}{nepsilon}). Our findings reveal fundamental differences between the non-private case, central DP model, and local DP model in the sparse linear regression problem.

Supervised learning is often affected by a covariate shift in which the marginal distributions of instances (covariates x) of training and testing samples p_tr(x) and p_te(x) are different but the label conditionals coincide. Existing approaches address such covariate shift by either using the ratio p_te(x)/p_tr(x) to weight training samples (reweighted methods) or using the ratio p_tr(x)/p_te(x) to weight testing samples (robust methods). However, the performance of such approaches can be poor under support mismatch or when the above ratios take large values. We propose a minimax risk classification (MRC) approach for covariate shift adaptation that avoids such limitations by weighting both training and testing samples. In addition, we develop effective techniques that obtain both sets of weights and generalize the conventional kernel mean matching method. We provide novel generalization bounds for our method that show a significant increase in the effective sample size compared with reweighted methods. The proposed method also achieves enhanced classification performance in both synthetic and empirical experiments.

Byte-Pair Encoding (BPE) is a popular algorithm used for tokenizing data in NLP, despite being devised initially as a compression method. BPE appears to be a greedy algorithm at face value, but the underlying optimization problem that BPE seeks to solve has not yet been laid down. We formalize BPE as a combinatorial optimization problem. Via submodular functions, we prove that the iterative greedy version is a 1{{sigma(mu^star)}}(1-e^{-{sigma(mu^star)}})-approximation of an optimal merge sequence, where {sigma(mu^star)} is the total backward curvature with respect to the optimal merge sequence mu^star. Empirically the lower bound of the approximation is approx 0.37. We provide a faster implementation of BPE which improves the runtime complexity from Oleft(N Mright) to Oleft(N log Mright), where N is the sequence length and M is the merge count. Finally, we optimize the brute-force algorithm for optimal BPE using memoization.

The Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM) is a greedy procedure that constructs approximate representations of two-variable functions in separated form. In its classical presentation, the two variables play a non-symmetric role. In this work, we give an equivalent definition of the EIM approximation, in which the two variables play symmetric roles. Then, we give a proof for the existence of this approximation, and extend it up to the convergence of the EIM, and for any norm chosen to compute the error in the greedy step. Finally, we introduce a way to compute a separated representation in the case where the number of selected values is different for each variable. In the case of a physical field measured by sensors, this is useful to discard a broken sensor while keeping the information provided by the associated selected field.

Given an algorithmic predictor that is accurate on some source population consisting of strategic human decision subjects, will it remain accurate if the population respond to it? In our setting, an agent or a user corresponds to a sample (X,Y) drawn from a distribution D and will face a model h and its classification result h(X). Agents can modify X to adapt to h, which will incur a distribution shift on (X,Y). Our formulation is motivated by applications where the deployed machine learning models are subjected to human agents, and will ultimately face responsive and interactive data distributions. We formalize the discussions of the transferability of a model by studying how the performance of the model trained on the available source distribution (data) would translate to the performance on its induced domain. We provide both upper bounds for the performance gap due to the induced domain shift, as well as lower bounds for the trade-offs that a classifier has to suffer on either the source training distribution or the induced target distribution. We provide further instantiated analysis for two popular domain adaptation settings, including covariate shift and target shift.

In this work, we present a variety of novel information-theoretic generalization bounds for learning algorithms, from the supersample setting of Steinke & Zakynthinou (2020)-the setting of the "conditional mutual information" framework. Our development exploits projecting the loss pair (obtained from a training instance and a testing instance) down to a single number and correlating loss values with a Rademacher sequence (and its shifted variants). The presented bounds include square-root bounds, fast-rate bounds, including those based on variance and sharpness, and bounds for interpolating algorithms etc. We show theoretically or empirically that these bounds are tighter than all information-theoretic bounds known to date on the same supersample setting.

Simple regret is a natural and parameter-free performance criterion for pure exploration in multi-armed bandits yet is less popular than the probability of missing the best arm or an epsilon-good arm, perhaps due to lack of easy ways to characterize it. In this paper, we make significant progress on minimizing simple regret in both data-rich (Tge n) and data-poor regime (T le n) where n is the number of arms, and T is the number of samples. At its heart is our improved instance-dependent analysis of the well-known Sequential Halving (SH) algorithm, where we bound the probability of returning an arm whose mean reward is not within epsilon from the best (i.e., not epsilon-good) for any choice of epsilon>0, although epsilon is not an input to SH. Our bound not only leads to an optimal worst-case simple regret bound of n/T up to logarithmic factors but also essentially matches the instance-dependent lower bound for returning an epsilon-good arm reported by Katz-Samuels and Jamieson (2020). For the more challenging data-poor regime, we propose Bracketing SH (BSH) that enjoys the same improvement even without sampling each arm at least once. Our empirical study shows that BSH outperforms existing methods on real-world tasks.

We resolve the open question regarding the sample complexity of policy learning for maximizing the long-run average reward associated with a uniformly ergodic Markov decision process (MDP), assuming a generative model. In this context, the existing literature provides a sample complexity upper bound of widetilde O(|S||A|t_{mix}^2 epsilon^{-2}) and a lower bound of Omega(|S||A|t_{mix} epsilon^{-2}). In these expressions, |S| and |A| denote the cardinalities of the state and action spaces respectively, t_{mix} serves as a uniform upper limit for the total variation mixing times, and epsilon signifies the error tolerance. Therefore, a notable gap of t_{mix} still remains to be bridged. Our primary contribution is the development of an estimator for the optimal policy of average reward MDPs with a sample complexity of widetilde O(|S||A|t_{mix}epsilon^{-2}). This marks the first algorithm and analysis to reach the literature's lower bound. Our new algorithm draws inspiration from ideas in Li et al. (2020), Jin and Sidford (2021), and Wang et al. (2023). Additionally, we conduct numerical experiments to validate our theoretical findings.

One method for obtaining generalizable solutions to machine learning tasks when presented with diverse training environments is to find invariant representations of the data. These are representations of the covariates such that the best model on top of the representation is invariant across training environments. In the context of linear Structural Equation Models (SEMs), invariant representations might allow us to learn models with out-of-distribution guarantees, i.e., models that are robust to interventions in the SEM. To address the invariant representation problem in a {\em finite sample} setting, we consider the notion of epsilon-approximate invariance. We study the following question: If a representation is approximately invariant with respect to a given number of training interventions, will it continue to be approximately invariant on a larger collection of unseen SEMs? This larger collection of SEMs is generated through a parameterized family of interventions. Inspired by PAC learning, we obtain finite-sample out-of-distribution generalization guarantees for approximate invariance that holds probabilistically over a family of linear SEMs without faithfulness assumptions. Our results show bounds that do not scale in ambient dimension when intervention sites are restricted to lie in a constant size subset of in-degree bounded nodes. We also show how to extend our results to a linear indirect observation model that incorporates latent variables.

Deep learning (DL) creates impactful advances following a virtuous recipe: model architecture search, creating large training data sets, and scaling computation. It is widely believed that growing training sets and models should improve accuracy and result in better products. As DL application domains grow, we would like a deeper understanding of the relationships between training set size, computational scale, and model accuracy improvements to advance the state-of-the-art. This paper presents a large scale empirical characterization of generalization error and model size growth as training sets grow. We introduce a methodology for this measurement and test four machine learning domains: machine translation, language modeling, image processing, and speech recognition. Our empirical results show power-law generalization error scaling across a breadth of factors, resulting in power-law exponents---the "steepness" of the learning curve---yet to be explained by theoretical work. Further, model improvements only shift the error but do not appear to affect the power-law exponent. We also show that model size scales sublinearly with data size. These scaling relationships have significant implications on deep learning research, practice, and systems. They can assist model debugging, setting accuracy targets, and decisions about data set growth. They can also guide computing system design and underscore the importance of continued computational scaling.

We study empirical scaling laws for language model performance on the cross-entropy loss. The loss scales as a power-law with model size, dataset size, and the amount of compute used for training, with some trends spanning more than seven orders of magnitude. Other architectural details such as network width or depth have minimal effects within a wide range. Simple equations govern the dependence of overfitting on model/dataset size and the dependence of training speed on model size. These relationships allow us to determine the optimal allocation of a fixed compute budget. Larger models are significantly more sample-efficient, such that optimally compute-efficient training involves training very large models on a relatively modest amount of data and stopping significantly before convergence.

Differential private optimization for nonconvex smooth objective is considered. In the previous work, the best known utility bound is widetilde O(d/(nvarepsilon_DP)) in terms of the squared full gradient norm, which is achieved by Differential Private Gradient Descent (DP-GD) as an instance, where n is the sample size, d is the problem dimensionality and varepsilon_DP is the differential privacy parameter. To improve the best known utility bound, we propose a new differential private optimization framework called DIFF2 (DIFFerential private optimization via gradient DIFFerences) that constructs a differential private global gradient estimator with possibly quite small variance based on communicated gradient differences rather than gradients themselves. It is shown that DIFF2 with a gradient descent subroutine achieves the utility of widetilde O(d^{2/3}/(nvarepsilon_DP)^{4/3}), which can be significantly better than the previous one in terms of the dependence on the sample size n. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first fundamental result to improve the standard utility widetilde O(d/(nvarepsilon_DP)) for nonconvex objectives. Additionally, a more computational and communication efficient subroutine is combined with DIFF2 and its theoretical analysis is also given. Numerical experiments are conducted to validate the superiority of DIFF2 framework.

Recent work has shown that it is possible to train deep neural networks that are provably robust to norm-bounded adversarial perturbations. Most of these methods are based on minimizing an upper bound on the worst-case loss over all possible adversarial perturbations. While these techniques show promise, they often result in difficult optimization procedures that remain hard to scale to larger networks. Through a comprehensive analysis, we show how a simple bounding technique, interval bound propagation (IBP), can be exploited to train large provably robust neural networks that beat the state-of-the-art in verified accuracy. While the upper bound computed by IBP can be quite weak for general networks, we demonstrate that an appropriate loss and clever hyper-parameter schedule allow the network to adapt such that the IBP bound is tight. This results in a fast and stable learning algorithm that outperforms more sophisticated methods and achieves state-of-the-art results on MNIST, CIFAR-10 and SVHN. It also allows us to train the largest model to be verified beyond vacuous bounds on a downscaled version of ImageNet.

A lot of Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) research is of an empirical nature. Nevertheless, statistical significance testing (SST) is still not widely used. This endangers true progress, as seeming improvements over a baseline might be statistical flukes, leading follow-up research astray while wasting human and computational resources. Here, we provide an easy-to-use package containing different significance tests and utility functions specifically tailored towards research needs and usability.

Much research in machine learning involves finding appropriate inductive biases (e.g. convolutional neural networks, momentum-based optimizers, transformers) to promote generalization on tasks. However, quantification of the amount of inductive bias associated with these architectures and hyperparameters has been limited. We propose a novel method for efficiently computing the inductive bias required for generalization on a task with a fixed training data budget; formally, this corresponds to the amount of information required to specify well-generalizing models within a specific hypothesis space of models. Our approach involves modeling the loss distribution of random hypotheses drawn from a hypothesis space to estimate the required inductive bias for a task relative to these hypotheses. Unlike prior work, our method provides a direct estimate of inductive bias without using bounds and is applicable to diverse hypothesis spaces. Moreover, we derive approximation error bounds for our estimation approach in terms of the number of sampled hypotheses. Consistent with prior results, our empirical results demonstrate that higher dimensional tasks require greater inductive bias. We show that relative to other expressive model classes, neural networks as a model class encode large amounts of inductive bias. Furthermore, our measure quantifies the relative difference in inductive bias between different neural network architectures. Our proposed inductive bias metric provides an information-theoretic interpretation of the benefits of specific model architectures for certain tasks and provides a quantitative guide to developing tasks requiring greater inductive bias, thereby encouraging the development of more powerful inductive biases.

In location estimation, we are given n samples from a known distribution f shifted by an unknown translation lambda, and want to estimate lambda as precisely as possible. Asymptotically, the maximum likelihood estimate achieves the Cram\'er-Rao bound of error mathcal N(0, 1{nmathcal I}), where mathcal I is the Fisher information of f. However, the n required for convergence depends on f, and may be arbitrarily large. We build on the theory using smoothed estimators to bound the error for finite n in terms of mathcal I_r, the Fisher information of the r-smoothed distribution. As n to infty, r to 0 at an explicit rate and this converges to the Cram\'er-Rao bound. We (1) improve the prior work for 1-dimensional f to converge for constant failure probability in addition to high probability, and (2) extend the theory to high-dimensional distributions. In the process, we prove a new bound on the norm of a high-dimensional random variable whose 1-dimensional projections are subgamma, which may be of independent interest.

By analogy with conjectures for random matrices, Fyodorov-Hiary-Keating and Fyodorov-Keating proposed precise asymptotics for the maximum of the Riemann zeta function in a typical short interval on the critical line. In this paper, we settle the upper bound part of their conjecture in a strong form. More precisely, we show that the measure of those T leq t leq 2T for which $ max_{|h| leq 1} |zeta(1/2 + i t + i h)| > e^y log T {(loglog T)^{3/4}} is bounded by Cy e^{-2y} uniformly in y \geq 1. This is expected to be optimal for y= O(\log\log T). This upper bound is sharper than what is known in the context of random matrices, since it gives (uniform) decay rates in y$. In a subsequent paper we will obtain matching lower bounds.

We carry out an information-theoretical analysis of a two-layer neural network trained from input-output pairs generated by a teacher network with matching architecture, in overparametrized regimes. Our results come in the form of bounds relating i) the mutual information between training data and network weights, or ii) the Bayes-optimal generalization error, to the same quantities but for a simpler (generalized) linear model for which explicit expressions are rigorously known. Our bounds, which are expressed in terms of the number of training samples, input dimension and number of hidden units, thus yield fundamental performance limits for any neural network (and actually any learning procedure) trained from limited data generated according to our two-layer teacher neural network model. The proof relies on rigorous tools from spin glasses and is guided by ``Gaussian equivalence principles'' lying at the core of numerous recent analyses of neural networks. With respect to the existing literature, which is either non-rigorous or restricted to the case of the learning of the readout weights only, our results are information-theoretic (i.e. are not specific to any learning algorithm) and, importantly, cover a setting where all the network parameters are trained.

A key challenge of modern machine learning systems is to achieve Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization -- generalizing to target data whose distribution differs from that of source data. Despite its significant importance, the fundamental question of ``what are the most effective algorithms for OOD generalization'' remains open even under the standard setting of covariate shift. This paper addresses this fundamental question by proving that, surprisingly, classical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) purely using source data (without any modification) achieves the minimax optimality for covariate shift under the well-specified setting. That is, no algorithm performs better than MLE in this setting (up to a constant factor), justifying MLE is all you need. Our result holds for a very rich class of parametric models, and does not require any boundedness condition on the density ratio. We illustrate the wide applicability of our framework by instantiating it to three concrete examples -- linear regression, logistic regression, and phase retrieval. This paper further complement the study by proving that, under the misspecified setting, MLE is no longer the optimal choice, whereas Maximum Weighted Likelihood Estimator (MWLE) emerges as minimax optimal in certain scenarios.

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

Predicting simple function classes has been widely used as a testbed for developing theory and understanding of the trained Transformer's in-context learning (ICL) ability. In this paper, we revisit the training of Transformers on linear regression tasks, and different from all the existing literature, we consider a bi-objective prediction task of predicting both the conditional expectation E[Y|X] and the conditional variance Var(Y|X). This additional uncertainty quantification objective provides a handle to (i) better design out-of-distribution experiments to distinguish ICL from in-weight learning (IWL) and (ii) make a better separation between the algorithms with and without using the prior information of the training distribution. Theoretically, we show that the trained Transformer reaches near Bayes-optimum, suggesting the usage of the information of the training distribution. Our method can be extended to other cases. Specifically, with the Transformer's context window S, we prove a generalization bound of mathcal{O}(min{S, T/(n T)}) on n tasks with sequences of length T, providing sharper analysis compared to previous results of mathcal{O}(1/n). Empirically, we illustrate that while the trained Transformer behaves as the Bayes-optimal solution as a natural consequence of supervised training in distribution, it does not necessarily perform a Bayesian inference when facing task shifts, in contrast to the equivalence between these two proposed in many existing literature. We also demonstrate the trained Transformer's ICL ability over covariates shift and prompt-length shift and interpret them as a generalization over a meta distribution.

We study the problem of online generalized linear regression in the stochastic setting, where the label is generated from a generalized linear model with possibly unbounded additive noise. We provide a sharp analysis of the classical follow-the-regularized-leader (FTRL) algorithm to cope with the label noise. More specifically, for sigma-sub-Gaussian label noise, our analysis provides a regret upper bound of O(sigma^2 d log T) + o(log T), where d is the dimension of the input vector, T is the total number of rounds. We also prove a Omega(sigma^2dlog(T/d)) lower bound for stochastic online linear regression, which indicates that our upper bound is nearly optimal. In addition, we extend our analysis to a more refined Bernstein noise condition. As an application, we study generalized linear bandits with heteroscedastic noise and propose an algorithm based on FTRL to achieve the first variance-aware regret bound.

This article considers the popular MCMC method of unadjusted Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) and provides a non-asymptotic analysis of its sampling error in 2-Wasserstein distance. The proof is based on a refinement of mean-square analysis in Li et al. (2019), and this refined framework automates the analysis of a large class of sampling algorithms based on discretizations of contractive SDEs. Using this framework, we establish an O(d/epsilon) mixing time bound for LMC, without warm start, under the common log-smooth and log-strongly-convex conditions, plus a growth condition on the 3rd-order derivative of the potential of target measures. This bound improves the best previously known O(d/epsilon) result and is optimal (in terms of order) in both dimension d and accuracy tolerance epsilon for target measures satisfying the aforementioned assumptions. Our theoretical analysis is further validated by numerical experiments.

Generalizing to out-of-distribution (OOD) data or unseen domain, termed OOD generalization, still lacks appropriate theoretical guarantees. Canonical OOD bounds focus on different distance measurements between source and target domains but fail to consider the optimization property of the learned model. As empirically shown in recent work, the sharpness of learned minima influences OOD generalization. To bridge this gap between optimization and OOD generalization, we study the effect of sharpness on how a model tolerates data change in domain shift which is usually captured by "robustness" in generalization. In this paper, we give a rigorous connection between sharpness and robustness, which gives better OOD guarantees for robust algorithms. It also provides a theoretical backing for "flat minima leads to better OOD generalization". Overall, we propose a sharpness-based OOD generalization bound by taking robustness into consideration, resulting in a tighter bound than non-robust guarantees. Our findings are supported by the experiments on a ridge regression model, as well as the experiments on deep learning classification tasks.

Most positive and unlabeled data is subject to selection biases. The labeled examples can, for example, be selected from the positive set because they are easier to obtain or more obviously positive. This paper investigates how learning can be ena BHbled in this setting. We propose and theoretically analyze an empirical-risk-based method for incorporating the labeling mechanism. Additionally, we investigate under which assumptions learning is possible when the labeling mechanism is not fully understood and propose a practical method to enable this. Our empirical analysis supports the theoretical results and shows that taking into account the possibility of a selection bias, even when the labeling mechanism is unknown, improves the trained classifiers.

The Mutual Reinforcement Effect (MRE) investigates the synergistic relationship between word-level and text-level classifications in text classification tasks. It posits that the performance of both classification levels can be mutually enhanced. However, this mechanism has not been adequately demonstrated or explained in prior research. To address this gap, we employ empirical experiment to observe and substantiate the MRE theory. Our experiments on 21 MRE mix datasets revealed the presence of MRE in the model and its impact. Specifically, we conducted compare experiments use fine-tune. The results of findings from comparison experiments corroborates the existence of MRE. Furthermore, we extended the application of MRE to prompt learning, utilizing word-level information as a verbalizer to bolster the model's prediction of text-level classification labels. In our final experiment, the F1-score significantly surpassed the baseline in 18 out of 21 MRE Mix datasets, further validating the notion that word-level information enhances the language model's comprehension of the text as a whole.

Parameter Efficient Fine Tuning (PEFT) techniques have recently experienced significant growth and have been extensively employed to adapt large vision and language models to various domains, enabling satisfactory model performance with minimal computational needs. Despite these advances, more research has yet to delve into potential PEFT applications in real-life scenarios, particularly in the critical domains of remote sensing and crop monitoring. The diversity of climates across different regions and the need for comprehensive large-scale datasets have posed significant obstacles to accurately identify crop types across varying geographic locations and changing growing seasons. This study seeks to bridge this gap by comprehensively exploring the feasibility of cross-area and cross-year out-of-distribution generalization using the State-of-the-Art (SOTA) wheat crop monitoring model. The aim of this work is to explore PEFT approaches for crop monitoring. Specifically, we focus on adapting the SOTA TSViT model to address winter wheat field segmentation, a critical task for crop monitoring and food security. This adaptation process involves integrating different PEFT techniques, including BigFit, LoRA, Adaptformer, and prompt tuning. Using PEFT techniques, we achieved notable results comparable to those achieved using full fine-tuning methods while training only a mere 0.7% parameters of the whole TSViT architecture. The in-house labeled data-set, referred to as the Beqaa-Lebanon dataset, comprises high-quality annotated polygons for wheat and non-wheat classes with a total surface of 170 kmsq, over five consecutive years. Using Sentinel-2 images, our model achieved a 84% F1-score. We intend to publicly release the Lebanese winter wheat data set, code repository, and model weights.

As foundation models continue to exponentially scale in size, efficient methods of adaptation become increasingly critical. Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT), a recent class of techniques that require only modifying a small percentage of the model parameters, is currently the most popular method for adapting large language models (LLMs). Several PEFT techniques have recently been proposed with varying tradeoffs. We provide a comprehensive and uniform benchmark of various PEFT techniques across a representative LLM, the FLAN-T5 model, and evaluate model performance across different data scales of classification and generation datasets. Based on this, we provide a framework for choosing the optimal fine-tuning techniques given the task type and data availability. Contrary to popular belief, we also empirically prove that PEFT techniques converge slower than full tuning in low data scenarios, and posit the amount of data required for PEFT methods to both perform well and converge efficiently. Lastly, we further optimize these PEFT techniques by selectively choosing which parts of the model to train, and find that these techniques can be applied with significantly fewer parameters while maintaining and even improving performance.

Large language models (LLMs) encode extensive world knowledge through pre-training on massive datasets, which can then be fine-tuned for the question-answering (QA) task. However, effective strategies for fine-tuning LLMs for the QA task remain largely unexplored. To address this gap, we categorize supervised fine-tuning (SFT) data based on the extent of knowledge memorized by the pretrained LLMs and conduct a series of empirical analyses. Our experiments, involving four LLMs from three different model families, focus on three key factors: the amount of data required for SFT, the impact of different SFT datasets on model performance, and how data requirements vary across LLMs. The results show that as few as 60 data points during the SFT stage can activate the knowledge encoded during pre-training, enabling LLMs to perform the QA task. Additionally, SFT with data of varying memory levels has a significant impact on LLM performance, with the optimal dataset differing based on the specific model being fine-tuned. Future research will delve deeper into the mechanisms underlying these phenomena.

This survey paper offers a comprehensive review of methodologies utilizing machine learning (ML) classification techniques for identifying wafer defects in semiconductor manufacturing. Despite the growing body of research demonstrating the effectiveness of ML in wafer defect identification, there is a noticeable absence of comprehensive reviews on this subject. This survey attempts to fill this void by amalgamating available literature and providing an in-depth analysis of the advantages, limitations, and potential applications of various ML classification algorithms in the realm of wafer defect detection. An innovative taxonomy of methodologies that we present provides a detailed classification of algorithms into more refined categories and techniques. This taxonomy follows a three-tier structure, starting from broad methodology categories and ending with specific techniques. It aids researchers in comprehending the complex relationships between different algorithms and their techniques. We employ a rigorous empirical and experimental evaluation to rank these varying techniques. For the empirical evaluation, we assess techniques based on a set of five criteria. The experimental evaluation ranks the algorithms employing the same techniques, sub-categories, and categories. Also the paper illuminates the future prospects of ML classification techniques for wafer defect identification, underscoring potential advancements and opportunities for further research in this field

The R-Mode system, an advanced terrestrial integrated navigation system, is designed to address the vulnerabilities of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) and explore the potential of a complementary navigation system. This study aims to enhance the accuracy of performance simulation for the medium frequency (MF) R-Mode system by modeling the variance of time-of-arrival (TOA) measurements based on actual data. Drawing inspiration from the method used to calculate the standard deviation of time-of-reception (TOR) measurements in Loran, we adapted and applied this approach to the MF R-Mode system. Data were collected from transmitters in Palmi and Chungju, South Korea, and the parameters for modeling the variance of TOA were estimated.

Binding precedents (S\'umulas Vinculantes) constitute a juridical instrument unique to the Brazilian legal system and whose objectives include the protection of the Federal Supreme Court against repetitive demands. Studies of the effectiveness of these instruments in decreasing the Court's exposure to similar cases, however, indicate that they tend to fail in such a direction, with some of the binding precedents seemingly creating new demands. We empirically assess the legal impact of five binding precedents, 11, 14, 17, 26 and 37, at the highest court level through their effects on the legal subjects they address. This analysis is only possible through the comparison of the Court's ruling about the precedents' themes before they are created, which means that these decisions should be detected through techniques of Similar Case Retrieval. The contributions of this article are therefore twofold: on the mathematical side, we compare the uses of different methods of Natural Language Processing -- TF-IDF, LSTM, BERT, and regex -- for Similar Case Retrieval, whereas on the legal side, we contrast the inefficiency of these binding precedents with a set of hypotheses that may justify their repeated usage. We observe that the deep learning models performed significantly worse in the specific Similar Case Retrieval task and that the reasons for binding precedents to fail in responding to repetitive demand are heterogeneous and case-dependent, making it impossible to single out a specific cause.

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Towards this, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models estimated from the observed data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can access the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics introduced in the literature, and novel ones introduced in this work, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter tuning of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.

With growing credit card transaction volumes, the fraud percentages are also rising, including overhead costs for institutions to combat and compensate victims. The use of machine learning into the financial sector permits more effective protection against fraud and other economic crime. Suitably trained machine learning classifiers help proactive fraud detection, improving stakeholder trust and robustness against illicit transactions. However, the design of machine learning based fraud detection algorithms has been challenging and slow due the massively unbalanced nature of fraud data and the challenges of identifying the frauds accurately and completely to create a gold standard ground truth. Furthermore, there are no benchmarks or standard classifier evaluation metrics to measure and identify better performing classifiers, thus keeping researchers in the dark. In this work, we develop a theoretical foundation to model human annotation errors and extreme imbalance typical in real world fraud detection data sets. By conducting empirical experiments on a hypothetical classifier, with a synthetic data distribution approximated to a popular real world credit card fraud data set, we simulate human annotation errors and extreme imbalance to observe the behavior of popular machine learning classifier evaluation matrices. We demonstrate that a combined F1 score and g-mean, in that specific order, is the best evaluation metric for typical imbalanced fraud detection model classification.

Empirical neural tangent kernels (eNTKs) can provide a good understanding of a given network's representation: they are often far less expensive to compute and applicable more broadly than infinite width NTKs. For networks with O output units (e.g. an O-class classifier), however, the eNTK on N inputs is of size NO times NO, taking O((NO)^2) memory and up to O((NO)^3) computation. Most existing applications have therefore used one of a handful of approximations yielding N times N kernel matrices, saving orders of magnitude of computation, but with limited to no justification. We prove that one such approximation, which we call "sum of logits", converges to the true eNTK at initialization for any network with a wide final "readout" layer. Our experiments demonstrate the quality of this approximation for various uses across a range of settings.

In recent years, several high-performance conversational systems have been proposed based on the Transformer encoder-decoder model. Although previous studies analyzed the effects of the model parameters and the decoding method on subjective dialogue evaluations with overall metrics, they did not analyze how the differences of fine-tuning datasets affect on user's detailed impression. In addition, the Transformer-based approach has only been verified for English, not for such languages with large inter-language distances as Japanese. In this study, we develop large-scale Transformer-based Japanese dialogue models and Japanese chit-chat datasets to examine the effectiveness of the Transformer-based approach for building chit-chat dialogue systems. We evaluated and analyzed the impressions of human dialogues in different fine-tuning datasets, model parameters, and the use of additional information.

Amid a discussion about Green AI in which we see explainability neglected, we explore the possibility to efficiently approximate computationally expensive explainers. To this end, we propose feature attribution modelling with Empirical Explainers. Empirical Explainers learn from data to predict the attribution maps of expensive explainers. We train and test Empirical Explainers in the language domain and find that they model their expensive counterparts surprisingly well, at a fraction of the cost. They could thus mitigate the computational burden of neural explanations significantly, in applications that tolerate an approximation error.

In this research, we have empirically investigated the key drivers affecting liquidity in equity markets. We illustrated how theoretical models, such as Kyle's model, of agents' interplay in the financial markets, are aligned with the phenomena observed in publicly available trades and quotes data. Specifically, we confirmed that for small signed order-flows, the price impact grows linearly with increase in the order-flow imbalance. We have, further, implemented a machine learning algorithm to forecast market impact given a signed order-flow. Our findings suggest that machine learning models can be used in estimation of financial variables; and predictive accuracy of such learning algorithms can surpass the performance of traditional statistical approaches. Understanding the determinants of price impact is crucial for several reasons. From a theoretical stance, modelling the impact provides a statistical measure of liquidity. Practitioners adopt impact models as a pre-trade tool to estimate expected transaction costs and optimize the execution of their strategies. This further serves as a post-trade valuation benchmark as suboptimal execution can significantly deteriorate a portfolio performance. More broadly, the price impact reflects the balance of liquidity across markets. This is of central importance to regulators as it provides an all-encompassing explanation of the correlation between market design and systemic risk, enabling regulators to design more stable and efficient markets.

In this paper we compare different types of recurrent units in recurrent neural networks (RNNs). Especially, we focus on more sophisticated units that implement a gating mechanism, such as a long short-term memory (LSTM) unit and a recently proposed gated recurrent unit (GRU). We evaluate these recurrent units on the tasks of polyphonic music modeling and speech signal modeling. Our experiments revealed that these advanced recurrent units are indeed better than more traditional recurrent units such as tanh units. Also, we found GRU to be comparable to LSTM.

Visual instruction tuning has recently shown encouraging progress with open-source large multimodal models (LMM) such as LLaVA and MiniGPT-4. However, most existing studies of open-source LMM are performed using models with 13B parameters or smaller. In this paper we present an empirical study of scaling LLaVA up to 33B and 65B/70B, and share our findings from our explorations in image resolution, data mixing and parameter-efficient training methods such as LoRA/QLoRA. These are evaluated by their impact on the multi-modal and language capabilities when completing real-world tasks in the wild. We find that scaling LMM consistently enhances model performance and improves language capabilities, and performance of LoRA/QLoRA tuning of LMM are comparable to the performance of full-model fine-tuning. Additionally, the study highlights the importance of higher image resolutions and mixing multimodal-language data to improve LMM performance, and visual instruction tuning can sometimes improve LMM's pure language capability. We hope that this study makes state-of-the-art LMM research at a larger scale more accessible, thus helping establish stronger baselines for future research. Code and checkpoints will be made public.

Communication games, which we refer to as incomplete information games that heavily depend on natural language communication, hold significant research value in fields such as economics, social science, and artificial intelligence. In this work, we explore the problem of how to engage large language models (LLMs) in communication games, and in response, propose a tuning-free framework. Our approach keeps LLMs frozen, and relies on the retrieval and reflection on past communications and experiences for improvement. An empirical study on the representative and widely-studied communication game, ``Werewolf'', demonstrates that our framework can effectively play Werewolf game without tuning the parameters of the LLMs. More importantly, strategic behaviors begin to emerge in our experiments, suggesting that it will be a fruitful journey to engage LLMs in communication games and associated domains.

In an increasing number of domains it has been demonstrated that deep learning models can be trained using relatively large batch sizes without sacrificing data efficiency. However the limits of this massive data parallelism seem to differ from domain to domain, ranging from batches of tens of thousands in ImageNet to batches of millions in RL agents that play the game Dota 2. To our knowledge there is limited conceptual understanding of why these limits to batch size differ or how we might choose the correct batch size in a new domain. In this paper, we demonstrate that a simple and easy-to-measure statistic called the gradient noise scale predicts the largest useful batch size across many domains and applications, including a number of supervised learning datasets (MNIST, SVHN, CIFAR-10, ImageNet, Billion Word), reinforcement learning domains (Atari and Dota), and even generative model training (autoencoders on SVHN). We find that the noise scale increases as the loss decreases over a training run and depends on the model size primarily through improved model performance. Our empirically-motivated theory also describes the tradeoff between compute-efficiency and time-efficiency, and provides a rough model of the benefits of adaptive batch-size training.

Large language models (LLMs) can respond to human language queries and have shown powerful potential applications in network operations (NetOps). Thanks to the large amount of commonsense knowledge inherent, LLMs achieve much better inference accuracy than traditional models and emerge with strong abilities in generalization, reasoning, and code generation. These abilities may have a crucial boost to automated and intelligent NetOps. However, it remains under-explored how well LLMs perform in various NetOps tasks. In this work, we make a systematic assessment of the capabilities, strengths, and limitations of selected LLMs in the field of NetOps. The evaluation is conducted on a collection of 5,732 questions about NetOps, encompassing 26 publicly available general-domain LLMs, including ChatGPT, LLaMA, Falcon, etc. We also finetune some of these LLMs with our collected NetOps corpus and evaluate the resulting models. The evaluation method follows the widely adopted benchmarks for general-domain LLMs, combined with Chain-of-Thought Prompts and Retrieval-Augmented Generation. The results show that only GPT-4 achieves high accuracy equivalent to passing the NetOps certification exam for humans, while all the other LLMs have much lower accuracy. However, some open models like LLaMA 2 still demonstrate significant potential. Furthermore, we evaluate the impact of factors such as model parameters, prompt engineering, instruction fine-tuning etc. This work shall be treated as the initial effort to systematic evaluation of LLMs in NetOps, and a more rigorous study is required for production use. The evaluation code and dataset will be released to benefit future research.

The optimal training configurations of large language models (LLMs) with respect to model sizes and compute budgets have been extensively studied. But how to optimally configure LLMs during inference has not been explored in sufficient depth. We study compute-optimal inference: designing models and inference strategies that optimally trade off additional inference-time compute for improved performance. As a first step towards understanding and designing compute-optimal inference methods, we assessed the effectiveness and computational efficiency of multiple inference strategies such as Greedy Search, Majority Voting, Best-of-N, Weighted Voting, and their variants on two different Tree Search algorithms, involving different model sizes and computational budgets. We found that a smaller language model with a novel tree search algorithm typically achieves a Pareto-optimal trade-off. These results highlight the potential benefits of deploying smaller models equipped with more sophisticated decoding algorithms in budget-constrained scenarios, e.g., on end-devices, to enhance problem-solving accuracy. For instance, we show that the Llemma-7B model can achieve competitive accuracy to a Llemma-34B model on MATH500 while using 2times less FLOPs. Our findings could potentially apply to any generation task with a well-defined measure of success.

Selective state-space models (SSMs) like Mamba overcome some of the shortcomings of Transformers, such as quadratic computational complexity with sequence length and large inference-time memory requirements from the key-value cache. Moreover, recent studies have shown that SSMs can match or exceed the language modeling capabilities of Transformers, making them an attractive alternative. In a controlled setting (e.g., same data), however, studies so far have only presented small scale experiments comparing SSMs to Transformers. To understand the strengths and weaknesses of these architectures at larger scales, we present a direct comparison between 8B-parameter Mamba, Mamba-2, and Transformer models trained on the same datasets of up to 3.5T tokens. We also compare these models to a hybrid architecture consisting of 43% Mamba-2, 7% attention, and 50% MLP layers (Mamba-2-Hybrid). Using a diverse set of tasks, we answer the question of whether Mamba models can match Transformers at larger training budgets. Our results show that while pure SSMs match or exceed Transformers on many tasks, they lag behind Transformers on tasks which require strong copying or in-context learning abilities (e.g., 5-shot MMLU, Phonebook) or long-context reasoning. In contrast, we find that the 8B Mamba-2-Hybrid exceeds the 8B Transformer on all 12 standard tasks we evaluated (+2.65 points on average) and is predicted to be up to 8x faster when generating tokens at inference time. To validate long-context capabilities, we provide additional experiments evaluating variants of the Mamba-2-Hybrid and Transformer extended to support 16K, 32K, and 128K sequences. On an additional 23 long-context tasks, the hybrid model continues to closely match or exceed the Transformer on average. To enable further study, we release the checkpoints as well as the code used to train our models as part of NVIDIA's Megatron-LM project.

Recently, there has been a growing trend of utilizing Large Language Model (LLM) to evaluate the quality of other LLMs. Many studies have employed proprietary close-source models, especially GPT4, as the evaluator. Alternatively, other works have fine-tuned judge models based on open-source LLMs as the evaluator. In this study, we conduct an empirical study of different judge models on their evaluation capability. Our findings indicate that although the fine-tuned judge models achieve high accuracy on in-domain test sets, even surpassing GPT4, they are inherently task-specific classifiers, and their generalizability and fairness severely underperform GPT4.

Humans' internal states play a key role in human-machine interaction, leading to the rise of human state estimation as a prominent field. Compared to swift state changes such as surprise and irritation, modeling gradual states like trust and satisfaction are further challenged by label sparsity: long time-series signals are usually associated with a single label, making it difficult to identify the critical span of state shifts. Windowing has been one widely-used technique to enable localized analysis of long time-series data. However, the performance of downstream models can be sensitive to the window size, and determining the optimal window size demands domain expertise and extensive search. To address this challenge, we propose a Selective Windowing Attention Network (SWAN), which employs window prompts and masked attention transformation to enable the selection of attended intervals with flexible lengths. We evaluate SWAN on the task of trust prediction on a new multimodal driving simulation dataset. Experiments show that SWAN significantly outperforms an existing empirical window selection baseline and neural network baselines including CNN-LSTM and Transformer. Furthermore, it shows robustness across a wide span of windowing ranges, compared to the traditional windowing approach.

Employing Large Language Models (LLMs) to address mathematical problems is an intriguing research endeavor, considering the abundance of math problems expressed in natural language across numerous science and engineering fields. While several prior works have investigated solving elementary mathematics using LLMs, this work explores the frontier of using GPT-4 for solving more complex and challenging math problems. We evaluate various ways of using GPT-4. Some of them are adapted from existing work, and one is \MathChat, a conversational problem-solving framework newly proposed in this work. We perform the evaluation on difficult high school competition problems from the MATH dataset, which shows the advantage of the proposed conversational approach.

The advent of automation in particular Software Engineering (SE) tasks has transitioned from theory to reality. Numerous scholarly articles have documented the successful application of Artificial Intelligence to address issues in areas such as project management, modeling, testing, and development. A recent innovation is the introduction of ChatGPT, an ML-infused chatbot, touted as a resource proficient in generating programming codes and formulating software testing strategies for developers and testers respectively. Although there is speculation that AI-based computation can increase productivity and even substitute software engineers in software development, there is currently a lack of empirical evidence to verify this. Moreover, despite the primary focus on enhancing the accuracy of AI systems, non-functional requirements including energy efficiency, vulnerability, fairness (i.e., human bias), and safety frequently receive insufficient attention. This paper posits that a comprehensive comparison of software engineers and AI-based solutions, considering various evaluation criteria, is pivotal in fostering human-machine collaboration, enhancing the reliability of AI-based methods, and understanding task suitability for humans or AI. Furthermore, it facilitates the effective implementation of cooperative work structures and human-in-the-loop processes. This paper conducts an empirical investigation, contrasting the performance of software engineers and AI systems, like ChatGPT, across different evaluation metrics. The empirical study includes a case of assessing ChatGPT-generated code versus code produced by developers and uploaded in Leetcode.

A code generation model generates code by taking a prompt from a code comment, existing code, or a combination of both. Although code generation models (e.g. GitHub Copilot) are increasingly being adopted in practice, it is unclear whether they can successfully be used for unit test generation without fine-tuning. We investigated how well three generative models (Codex, GPT-3.5-Turbo, and StarCoder) can generate test cases to fill this gap. We used two benchmarks (HumanEval and Evosuite SF110) to investigate the context generation's effect in the unit test generation process. We evaluated the models based on compilation rates, test correctness, coverage, and test smells. We found that the Codex model achieved above 80% coverage for the HumanEval dataset, but no model had more than 2% coverage for the EvoSuite SF110 benchmark. The generated tests also suffered from test smells, such as Duplicated Asserts and Empty Tests.

Columnar storage is a core component of a modern data analytics system. Although many database management systems (DBMSs) have proprietary storage formats, most provide extensive support to open-source storage formats such as Parquet and ORC to facilitate cross-platform data sharing. But these formats were developed over a decade ago, in the early 2010s, for the Hadoop ecosystem. Since then, both the hardware and workload landscapes have changed. In this paper, we revisit the most widely adopted open-source columnar storage formats (Parquet and ORC) with a deep dive into their internals. We designed a benchmark to stress-test the formats' performance and space efficiency under different workload configurations. From our comprehensive evaluation of Parquet and ORC, we identify design decisions advantageous with modern hardware and real-world data distributions. These include using dictionary encoding by default, favoring decoding speed over compression ratio for integer encoding algorithms, making block compression optional, and embedding finer-grained auxiliary data structures. We also point out the inefficiencies in the format designs when handling common machine learning workloads and using GPUs for decoding. Our analysis identified important considerations that may guide future formats to better fit modern technology trends.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable potential in handling multilingual machine translation (MMT). In this paper, we systematically investigate the advantages and challenges of LLMs for MMT by answering two questions: 1) How well do LLMs perform in translating a massive number of languages? 2) Which factors affect LLMs' performance in translation? We evaluate popular LLMs, including XGLM, OPT, BLOOMZ, and ChatGPT, on 102 languages. Our empirical results show that even the best model ChatGPT still lags behind the supervised baseline NLLB in 83.33% of translation directions. Through further analysis, we discover that LLMs exhibit new working patterns when used for MMT. First, prompt semantics can surprisingly be ignored when given in-context exemplars, where LLMs still show strong performance even with unreasonable prompts. Second, cross-lingual exemplars can provide better task instruction for low-resource translation than exemplars in the same language pairs. Third, we observe the overestimated performance of BLOOMZ on dataset Flores-101, indicating the potential risk when using public datasets for evaluation.

Unit tests play a key role in ensuring the correctness of software. However, manually creating unit tests is a laborious task, motivating the need for automation. Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been applied to this problem, utilizing additional training or few-shot learning on examples of existing tests. This paper presents a large-scale empirical evaluation on the effectiveness of LLMs for automated unit test generation without additional training or manual effort, providing the LLM with the signature and implementation of the function under test, along with usage examples extracted from documentation. We also attempt to repair failed generated tests by re-prompting the model with the failing test and error message. We implement our approach in TestPilot, a test generation tool for JavaScript that automatically generates unit tests for all API functions in an npm package. We evaluate TestPilot using OpenAI's gpt3.5-turbo LLM on 25 npm packages with a total of 1,684 API functions. The generated tests achieve a median statement coverage of 70.2% and branch coverage of 52.8%, significantly improving on Nessie, a recent feedback-directed JavaScript test generation technique, which achieves only 51.3% statement coverage and 25.6% branch coverage. We also find that 92.8% of TestPilot's generated tests have no more than 50% similarity with existing tests (as measured by normalized edit distance), with none of them being exact copies. Finally, we run TestPilot with two additional LLMs, OpenAI's older code-cushman-002 LLM and the open LLM StarCoder. Overall, we observed similar results with the former (68.2% median statement coverage), and somewhat worse results with the latter (54.0% median statement coverage), suggesting that the effectiveness of the approach is influenced by the size and training set of the LLM, but does not fundamentally depend on the specific model.

While a large number of pre-trained models of source code have been successfully developed and applied to a variety of software engineering (SE) tasks in recent years, our understanding of these pre-trained models is arguably fairly limited. With the goal of advancing our understanding of these models, we perform the first systematic empirical comparison of 19 recently-developed pre-trained models of source code on 13 SE tasks. To gain additional insights into these models, we adopt a recently-developed 4-dimensional categorization of pre-trained models, and subsequently investigate whether there are correlations between different categories of pre-trained models and their performances on different SE tasks.

A recent study by Feldman (2020) proposed a long-tail theory to explain the memorization behavior of deep learning models. However, memorization has not been empirically verified in the context of NLP, a gap addressed by this work. In this paper, we use three different NLP tasks to check if the long-tail theory holds. Our experiments demonstrate that top-ranked memorized training instances are likely atypical, and removing the top-memorized training instances leads to a more serious drop in test accuracy compared with removing training instances randomly. Furthermore, we develop an attribution method to better understand why a training instance is memorized. We empirically show that our memorization attribution method is faithful, and share our interesting finding that the top-memorized parts of a training instance tend to be features negatively correlated with the class label.

Knowledge-based visual question answering (VQA) involves answering questions that require external knowledge not present in the image. Existing methods first retrieve knowledge from external resources, then reason over the selected knowledge, the input image, and question for answer prediction. However, this two-step approach could lead to mismatches that potentially limit the VQA performance. For example, the retrieved knowledge might be noisy and irrelevant to the question, and the re-embedded knowledge features during reasoning might deviate from their original meanings in the knowledge base (KB). To address this challenge, we propose PICa, a simple yet effective method that Prompts GPT3 via the use of Image Captions, for knowledge-based VQA. Inspired by GPT-3's power in knowledge retrieval and question answering, instead of using structured KBs as in previous work, we treat GPT-3 as an implicit and unstructured KB that can jointly acquire and process relevant knowledge. Specifically, we first convert the image into captions (or tags) that GPT-3 can understand, then adapt GPT-3 to solve the VQA task in a few-shot manner by just providing a few in-context VQA examples. We further boost performance by carefully investigating: (i) what text formats best describe the image content, and (ii) how in-context examples can be better selected and used. PICa unlocks the first use of GPT-3 for multimodal tasks. By using only 16 examples, PICa surpasses the supervised state of the art by an absolute +8.6 points on the OK-VQA dataset. We also benchmark PICa on VQAv2, where PICa also shows a decent few-shot performance.

Large language models (LLMs) can be leveraged to help with writing formulas in spreadsheets, but resources on these formulas are scarce, impacting both the base performance of pre-trained models and limiting the ability to fine-tune them. Given a corpus of formulas, we can use a(nother) model to generate synthetic natural language utterances for fine-tuning. However, it is important to validate whether the NL generated by the LLM is indeed accurate to be beneficial for fine-tuning. In this paper, we provide empirical results on the impact of validating these synthetic training examples with surrogate objectives that evaluate the accuracy of the synthetic annotations. We demonstrate that validation improves performance over raw data across four models (2 open and 2 closed weight). Interestingly, we show that although validation tends to prune more challenging examples, it increases the complexity of problems that models can solve after being fine-tuned on validated data.

Language Models (LMs) excel in natural language processing tasks for English but show reduced performance in most other languages. This problem is commonly tackled by continually pre-training and fine-tuning these models for said languages. A significant issue in this process is the limited vocabulary coverage in the original model's tokenizer, leading to inadequate representation of new languages and necessitating an expansion of the tokenizer. The initialization of the embeddings corresponding to new vocabulary items presents a further challenge. Current strategies require cross-lingual embeddings and lack a solid theoretical foundation as well as comparisons with strong baselines. In this paper, we first establish theoretically that initializing within the convex hull of existing embeddings is a good initialization, followed by a novel but simple approach, Constrained Word2Vec (CW2V), which does not require cross-lingual embeddings. Our study evaluates different initialization methods for expanding RoBERTa and LLaMA 2 across four languages and five tasks. The results show that CW2V performs equally well or even better than more advanced techniques. Additionally, simpler approaches like multivariate initialization perform on par with these advanced methods indicating that efficient large-scale multilingual continued pretraining can be achieved even with simpler initialization methods.

Pretrained language models inherently exhibit various social biases, prompting a crucial examination of their social impact across various linguistic contexts due to their widespread usage. Previous studies have provided numerous methods for intrinsic bias measurements, predominantly focused on high-resource languages. In this work, we aim to extend these investigations to Bangla, a low-resource language. Specifically, in this study, we (1) create a dataset for intrinsic gender bias measurement in Bangla, (2) discuss necessary adaptations to apply existing bias measurement methods for Bangla, and (3) examine the impact of context length variation on bias measurement, a factor that has been overlooked in previous studies. Through our experiments, we demonstrate a clear dependency of bias metrics on context length, highlighting the need for nuanced considerations in Bangla bias analysis. We consider our work as a stepping stone for bias measurement in the Bangla Language and make all of our resources publicly available to support future research.

Broad, open source availability of large pretrained foundation models on the internet through platforms such as HuggingFace has taken the world of practical deep learning by storm. A classical pipeline for neural network training now typically consists of finetuning these pretrained network on a small target dataset instead of training from scratch. In the case of large models this can be done even on modest hardware using a low rank training technique known as Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA). While Low Rank training has already been studied in the continual learning setting, existing works often consider storing the learned adapter along with the existing model but rarely attempt to modify the weights of the pretrained model by merging the LoRA with the existing weights after finishing the training of each task. In this article we investigate this setting and study the impact of LoRA rank on the forgetting of the pretraining foundation task and on the plasticity and forgetting of subsequent ones. We observe that this rank has an important impact on forgetting of both the pretraining and downstream tasks. We also observe that vision transformers finetuned in that way exhibit a sort of ``contextual'' forgetting, a behaviour that we do not observe for residual networks and that we believe has not been observed yet in previous continual learning works.

One critical prerequisite for faithful text-to-image generation is the accurate understanding of text inputs. Existing methods leverage the text encoder of the CLIP model to represent input prompts. However, the pre-trained CLIP model can merely encode English with a maximum token length of 77. Moreover, the model capacity of the text encoder from CLIP is relatively limited compared to Large Language Models (LLMs), which offer multilingual input, accommodate longer context, and achieve superior text representation. In this paper, we investigate LLMs as the text encoder to improve the language understanding in text-to-image generation. Unfortunately, training text-to-image generative model with LLMs from scratch demands significant computational resources and data. To this end, we introduce a three-stage training pipeline that effectively and efficiently integrates the existing text-to-image model with LLMs. Specifically, we propose a lightweight adapter that enables fast training of the text-to-image model using the textual representations from LLMs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our model supports not only multilingual but also longer input context with superior image generation quality.

ChatGPT has significantly impacted software development practices, providing substantial assistance to developers in a variety of tasks, including coding, testing, and debugging. Despite its widespread adoption, the impact of ChatGPT as an assistant in collaborative coding remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we analyze a dataset of 210 and 370 developers shared conversations with ChatGPT in GitHub pull requests (PRs) and issues. We manually examined the content of the conversations and characterized the dynamics of the sharing behavior, i.e., understanding the rationale behind the sharing, identifying the locations where the conversations were shared, and determining the roles of the developers who shared them. Our main observations are: (1) Developers seek ChatGPT assistance across 16 types of software engineering inquiries. In both conversations shared in PRs and issues, the most frequently encountered inquiry categories include code generation, conceptual questions, how-to guides, issue resolution, and code review. (2) Developers frequently engage with ChatGPT via multi-turn conversations where each prompt can fulfill various roles, such as unveiling initial or new tasks, iterative follow-up, and prompt refinement. Multi-turn conversations account for 33.2% of the conversations shared in PRs and 36.9% in issues. (3) In collaborative coding, developers leverage shared conversations with ChatGPT to facilitate their role-specific contributions, whether as authors of PRs or issues, code reviewers, or collaborators on issues. Our work serves as the first step towards understanding the dynamics between developers and ChatGPT in collaborative software development and opens up new directions for future research on the topic.

Capture The Flag (CTF) challenges are puzzles related to computer security scenarios. With the advent of large language models (LLMs), more and more CTF participants are using LLMs to understand and solve the challenges. However, so far no work has evaluated the effectiveness of LLMs in solving CTF challenges with a fully automated workflow. We develop two CTF-solving workflows, human-in-the-loop (HITL) and fully-automated, to examine the LLMs' ability to solve a selected set of CTF challenges, prompted with information about the question. We collect human contestants' results on the same set of questions, and find that LLMs achieve higher success rate than an average human participant. This work provides a comprehensive evaluation of the capability of LLMs in solving real world CTF challenges, from real competition to fully automated workflow. Our results provide references for applying LLMs in cybersecurity education and pave the way for systematic evaluation of offensive cybersecurity capabilities in LLMs.

The development of state-of-the-art generative large language models (LLMs) disproportionately relies on English-centric tokenizers, vocabulary and pre-training data. Despite the fact that some LLMs have multilingual capabilities, recent studies have shown that their inference efficiency deteriorates when generating text in languages other than English. This results in increased inference time and costs. Cross-lingual vocabulary adaptation methods have been proposed for adapting models to a target language aiming to improve downstream performance. However, the effectiveness of these methods on increasing inference efficiency of generative LLMs has yet to be explored. In this paper, we perform an empirical study of various cross-lingual vocabulary adaptation methods on five generative LLMs (including monolingual and multilingual models) across four typologically-diverse languages and four natural language understanding tasks. We find that cross-lingual vocabulary adaptation substantially contributes to LLM inference speedups of up to 271.5%. We also show that adapting LLMs that have been pre-trained on more balanced multilingual data results in downstream performance comparable to the original models.

Presenting high-level arguments is a crucial task for fostering participation in online societal discussions. Current argument summarization approaches miss an important facet of this task -- capturing diversity -- which is important for accommodating multiple perspectives. We introduce three aspects of diversity: those of opinions, annotators, and sources. We evaluate approaches to a popular argument summarization task called Key Point Analysis, which shows how these approaches struggle to (1) represent arguments shared by few people, (2) deal with data from various sources, and (3) align with subjectivity in human-provided annotations. We find that both general-purpose LLMs and dedicated KPA models exhibit this behavior, but have complementary strengths. Further, we observe that diversification of training data may ameliorate generalization. Addressing diversity in argument summarization requires a mix of strategies to deal with subjectivity.

Fairness has been a critical issue that affects the adoption of deep learning models in real practice. To improve model fairness, many existing methods have been proposed and evaluated to be effective in their own contexts. However, there is still no systematic evaluation among them for a comprehensive comparison under the same context, which makes it hard to understand the performance distinction among them, hindering the research progress and practical adoption of them. To fill this gap, this paper endeavours to conduct the first large-scale empirical study to comprehensively compare the performance of existing state-of-the-art fairness improving techniques. Specifically, we target the widely-used application scenario of image classification, and utilized three different datasets and five commonly-used performance metrics to assess in total 13 methods from diverse categories. Our findings reveal substantial variations in the performance of each method across different datasets and sensitive attributes, indicating over-fitting on specific datasets by many existing methods. Furthermore, different fairness evaluation metrics, due to their distinct focuses, yield significantly different assessment results. Overall, we observe that pre-processing methods and in-processing methods outperform post-processing methods, with pre-processing methods exhibiting the best performance. Our empirical study offers comprehensive recommendations for enhancing fairness in deep learning models. We approach the problem from multiple dimensions, aiming to provide a uniform evaluation platform and inspire researchers to explore more effective fairness solutions via a set of implications.

Unsupervised Neural Machine Translation (UNMT) focuses on improving NMT results under the assumption there is no human translated parallel data, yet little work has been done so far in highlighting its advantages compared to supervised methods and analyzing its output in aspects other than translation accuracy. We focus on three very diverse languages, French, Gujarati, and Kazakh, and train bilingual NMT models, to and from English, with various levels of supervision, in high- and low- resource setups, measure quality of the NMT output and compare the generated sequences' word order and semantic similarity to source and reference sentences. We also use Layer-wise Relevance Propagation to evaluate the source and target sentences' contribution to the result, expanding the findings of previous works to the UNMT paradigm.

Major advancements in computer vision can primarily be attributed to the use of labeled datasets. However, acquiring labels for datasets often results in errors which can harm model performance. Recent works have proposed methods to automatically identify mislabeled images, but developing strategies to effectively implement them in real world datasets has been sparsely explored. Towards improved data-centric methods for cleaning real world vision datasets, we first conduct more than 200 experiments carefully benchmarking recently developed automated mislabel detection methods on multiple datasets under a variety of synthetic and real noise settings with varying noise levels. We compare these methods to a Simple and Efficient Mislabel Detector (SEMD) that we craft, and find that SEMD performs similarly to or outperforms prior mislabel detection approaches. We then apply SEMD to multiple real world computer vision datasets and test how dataset size, mislabel removal strategy, and mislabel removal amount further affect model performance after retraining on the cleaned data. With careful design of the approach, we find that mislabel removal leads per-class performance improvements of up to 8% of a retrained classifier in smaller data regimes.

Since ChatGPT has emerged as a major AIGC model, providing high-quality responses across a wide range of applications (including software development and maintenance), it has attracted much interest from many individuals. ChatGPT has great promise, but there are serious problems that might arise from its misuse, especially in the realms of education and public safety. Several AIGC detectors are available, and they have all been tested on genuine text. However, more study is needed to see how effective they are for multi-domain ChatGPT material. This study aims to fill this need by creating a multi-domain dataset for testing the state-of-the-art APIs and tools for detecting artificially generated information used by universities and other research institutions. A large dataset consisting of articles, abstracts, stories, news, and product reviews was created for this study. The second step is to use the newly created dataset to put six tools through their paces. Six different artificial intelligence (AI) text identification systems, including "GPTkit," "GPTZero," "Originality," "Sapling," "Writer," and "Zylalab," have accuracy rates between 55.29 and 97.0%. Although all the tools fared well in the evaluations, originality was particularly effective across the board.

Semantic segmentation is a vital problem in computer vision. Recently, a common solution to semantic segmentation is the end-to-end convolution neural network, which is much more accurate than traditional methods.Recently, the decoders based on attention achieve state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance on various datasets. But these networks always are compared with the mIoU of previous SOTA networks to prove their superiority and ignore their characteristics without considering the computation complexity and precision in various categories, which is essential for engineering applications. Besides, the methods to analyze the FLOPs and memory are not consistent between different networks, which makes the comparison hard to be utilized. What's more, various methods utilize attention in semantic segmentation, but the conclusion of these methods is lacking. This paper first conducts experiments to analyze their computation complexity and compare their performance. Then it summarizes suitable scenes for these networks and concludes key points that should be concerned when constructing an attention network. Last it points out some future directions of the attention network.

The pandemic resulted in vast repositories of unstructured data, including radiology reports, due to increased medical examinations. Previous research on automated diagnosis of COVID-19 primarily focuses on X-ray images, despite their lower precision compared to computed tomography (CT) scans. In this work, we leverage unstructured data from a hospital and harness the fine-grained details offered by CT scans to perform zero-shot multi-label classification based on contrastive visual language learning. In collaboration with human experts, we investigate the effectiveness of multiple zero-shot models that aid radiologists in detecting pulmonary embolisms and identifying intricate lung details like ground glass opacities and consolidations. Our empirical analysis provides an overview of the possible solutions to target such fine-grained tasks, so far overlooked in the medical multimodal pretraining literature. Our investigation promises future advancements in the medical image analysis community by addressing some challenges associated with unstructured data and fine-grained multi-label classification.

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are being adopted as components in software systems. Creating and specializing DNNs from scratch has grown increasingly difficult as state-of-the-art architectures grow more complex. Following the path of traditional software engineering, machine learning engineers have begun to reuse large-scale pre-trained models (PTMs) and fine-tune these models for downstream tasks. Prior works have studied reuse practices for traditional software packages to guide software engineers towards better package maintenance and dependency management. We lack a similar foundation of knowledge to guide behaviors in pre-trained model ecosystems. In this work, we present the first empirical investigation of PTM reuse. We interviewed 12 practitioners from the most popular PTM ecosystem, Hugging Face, to learn the practices and challenges of PTM reuse. From this data, we model the decision-making process for PTM reuse. Based on the identified practices, we describe useful attributes for model reuse, including provenance, reproducibility, and portability. Three challenges for PTM reuse are missing attributes, discrepancies between claimed and actual performance, and model risks. We substantiate these identified challenges with systematic measurements in the Hugging Face ecosystem. Our work informs future directions on optimizing deep learning ecosystems by automated measuring useful attributes and potential attacks, and envision future research on infrastructure and standardization for model registries.

Cross-lingual transfer learning has proven useful in a variety of Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks, but it is understudied in the context of legal NLP, and not at all in Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP). We explore transfer learning techniques on LJP using the trilingual Swiss-Judgment-Prediction dataset, including cases written in three languages. We find that cross-lingual transfer improves the overall results across languages, especially when we use adapter-based fine-tuning. Finally, we further improve the model's performance by augmenting the training dataset with machine-translated versions of the original documents, using a 3x larger training corpus. Further on, we perform an analysis exploring the effect of cross-domain and cross-regional transfer, i.e., train a model across domains (legal areas), or regions. We find that in both settings (legal areas, origin regions), models trained across all groups perform overall better, while they also have improved results in the worst-case scenarios. Finally, we report improved results when we ambitiously apply cross-jurisdiction transfer, where we further augment our dataset with Indian legal cases.

Masked visual modeling (MVM) has been recently proven effective for visual pre-training. While similar reconstructive objectives on video inputs (e.g., masked frame modeling) have been explored in video-language (VidL) pre-training, previous studies fail to find a truly effective MVM strategy that can largely benefit the downstream performance. In this work, we systematically examine the potential of MVM in the context of VidL learning. Specifically, we base our study on a fully end-to-end VIdeO-LanguagE Transformer (VIOLET), where the supervision from MVM training can be backpropagated to the video pixel space. In total, eight different reconstructive targets of MVM are explored, from low-level pixel values and oriented gradients to high-level depth maps, optical flow, discrete visual tokens, and latent visual features. We conduct comprehensive experiments and provide insights into the factors leading to effective MVM training, resulting in an enhanced model VIOLETv2. Empirically, we show VIOLETv2 pre-trained with MVM objective achieves notable improvements on 13 VidL benchmarks, ranging from video question answering, video captioning, to text-to-video retrieval.

End-to-end learning models have demonstrated a remarkable capability in performing speech segregation. Despite their wide-scope of real-world applications, little is known about the mechanisms they employ to group and consequently segregate individual speakers. Knowing that harmonicity is a critical cue for these networks to group sources, in this work, we perform a thorough investigation on ConvTasnet and DPT-Net to analyze how they perform a harmonic analysis of the input mixture. We perform ablation studies where we apply low-pass, high-pass, and band-stop filters of varying pass-bands to empirically analyze the harmonics most critical for segregation. We also investigate how these networks decide which output channel to assign to an estimated source by introducing discontinuities in synthetic mixtures. We find that end-to-end networks are highly unstable, and perform poorly when confronted with deformations which are imperceptible to humans. Replacing the encoder in these networks with a spectrogram leads to lower overall performance, but much higher stability. This work helps us to understand what information these network rely on for speech segregation, and exposes two sources of generalization-errors. It also pinpoints the encoder as the part of the network responsible for these errors, allowing for a redesign with expert knowledge or transfer learning.

Recent work has shown pre-trained language models capture social biases from the large amounts of text they are trained on. This has attracted attention to developing techniques that mitigate such biases. In this work, we perform an empirical survey of five recently proposed bias mitigation techniques: Counterfactual Data Augmentation (CDA), Dropout, Iterative Nullspace Projection, Self-Debias, and SentenceDebias. We quantify the effectiveness of each technique using three intrinsic bias benchmarks while also measuring the impact of these techniques on a model's language modeling ability, as well as its performance on downstream NLU tasks. We experimentally find that: (1) Self-Debias is the strongest debiasing technique, obtaining improved scores on all bias benchmarks; (2) Current debiasing techniques perform less consistently when mitigating non-gender biases; And (3) improvements on bias benchmarks such as StereoSet and CrowS-Pairs by using debiasing strategies are often accompanied by a decrease in language modeling ability, making it difficult to determine whether the bias mitigation was effective.

Spreading of COVID-19 virus has increased the efforts to provide testing kits. Not only the preparation of these kits had been hard, rare, and expensive but also using them is another issue. Results have shown that these kits take some crucial time to recognize the virus, in addition to the fact that they encounter with 30% loss. In this paper, we have studied the usage of x-ray pictures which are ubiquitous, for the classification of COVID-19 chest Xray images, by the existing convolutional neural networks (CNNs). We intend to train chest x-rays of infected and not infected ones with different CNNs architectures including VGG19, Densnet-121, and Xception. Training these architectures resulted in different accuracies which were much faster and more precise than usual ways of testing.

Despite apparent human-level performances of deep neural networks (DNN), they behave fundamentally differently from humans. They easily change predictions when small corruptions such as blur and noise are applied on the input (lack of robustness), and they often produce confident predictions on out-of-distribution samples (improper uncertainty measure). While a number of researches have aimed to address those issues, proposed solutions are typically expensive and complicated (e.g. Bayesian inference and adversarial training). Meanwhile, many simple and cheap regularization methods have been developed to enhance the generalization of classifiers. Such regularization methods have largely been overlooked as baselines for addressing the robustness and uncertainty issues, as they are not specifically designed for that. In this paper, we provide extensive empirical evaluations on the robustness and uncertainty estimates of image classifiers (CIFAR-100 and ImageNet) trained with state-of-the-art regularization methods. Furthermore, experimental results show that certain regularization methods can serve as strong baseline methods for robustness and uncertainty estimation of DNNs.

Millions of open-source projects with numerous bug fixes are available in code repositories. This proliferation of software development histories can be leveraged to learn how to fix common programming bugs. To explore such a potential, we perform an empirical study to assess the feasibility of using Neural Machine Translation techniques for learning bug-fixing patches for real defects. First, we mine millions of bug-fixes from the change histories of projects hosted on GitHub, in order to extract meaningful examples of such bug-fixes. Next, we abstract the buggy and corresponding fixed code, and use them to train an Encoder-Decoder model able to translate buggy code into its fixed version. In our empirical investigation we found that such a model is able to fix thousands of unique buggy methods in the wild. Overall, this model is capable of predicting fixed patches generated by developers in 9-50% of the cases, depending on the number of candidate patches we allow it to generate. Also, the model is able to emulate a variety of different Abstract Syntax Tree operations and generate candidate patches in a split second.

Machine learning models, such as neural networks, decision trees, random forests, and gradient boosting machines, accept a feature vector, and provide a prediction. These models learn in a supervised fashion where we provide feature vectors mapped to the expected output. It is common practice to engineer new features from the provided feature set. Such engineered features will either augment or replace portions of the existing feature vector. These engineered features are essentially calculated fields based on the values of the other features. Engineering such features is primarily a manual, time-consuming task. Additionally, each type of model will respond differently to different kinds of engineered features. This paper reports empirical research to demonstrate what kinds of engineered features are best suited to various machine learning model types. We provide this recommendation by generating several datasets that we designed to benefit from a particular type of engineered feature. The experiment demonstrates to what degree the machine learning model can synthesize the needed feature on its own. If a model can synthesize a planned feature, it is not necessary to provide that feature. The research demonstrated that the studied models do indeed perform differently with various types of engineered features.

A large-scale deep model pre-trained on massive labeled or unlabeled data transfers well to downstream tasks. Linear evaluation freezes parameters in the pre-trained model and trains a linear classifier separately, which is efficient and attractive for transfer. However, little work has investigated the classifier in linear evaluation except for the default logistic regression. Inspired by the statistical efficiency of naive Bayes, the paper revisits the classical topic on discriminative vs. generative classifiers. Theoretically, the paper considers the surrogate loss instead of the zero-one loss in analyses and generalizes the classical results from binary cases to multiclass ones. We show that, under mild assumptions, multiclass naive Bayes requires O(log n) samples to approach its asymptotic error while the corresponding multiclass logistic regression requires O(n) samples, where n is the feature dimension. To establish it, we present a multiclass H-consistency bound framework and an explicit bound for logistic loss, which are of independent interests. Simulation results on a mixture of Gaussian validate our theoretical findings. Experiments on various pre-trained deep vision models show that naive Bayes consistently converges faster as the number of data increases. Besides, naive Bayes shows promise in few-shot cases and we observe the "two regimes" phenomenon in pre-trained supervised models. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/Revisiting-Dis-vs-Gen-Classifiers.

While many capabilities of language models (LMs) improve with increased training budget, the influence of scale on hallucinations is not yet fully understood. Hallucinations come in many forms, and there is no universally accepted definition. We thus focus on studying only those hallucinations where a correct answer appears verbatim in the training set. To fully control the training data content, we construct a knowledge graph (KG)-based dataset, and use it to train a set of increasingly large LMs. We find that for a fixed dataset, larger and longer-trained LMs hallucinate less. However, hallucinating on leq5% of the training data requires an order of magnitude larger model, and thus an order of magnitude more compute, than Hoffmann et al. (2022) reported was optimal. Given this costliness, we study how hallucination detectors depend on scale. While we see detector size improves performance on fixed LM's outputs, we find an inverse relationship between the scale of the LM and the detectability of its hallucinations.

Quantum algorithms for optimization problems are of general interest. Despite recent progress in classical lower bounds for nonconvex optimization under different settings and quantum lower bounds for convex optimization, quantum lower bounds for nonconvex optimization are still widely open. In this paper, we conduct a systematic study of quantum query lower bounds on finding epsilon-approximate stationary points of nonconvex functions, and we consider the following two important settings: 1) having access to p-th order derivatives; or 2) having access to stochastic gradients. The classical query lower bounds is Omegabig(epsilon^{-1+p{p}}big) regarding the first setting, and Omega(epsilon^{-4}) regarding the second setting (or Omega(epsilon^{-3}) if the stochastic gradient function is mean-squared smooth). In this paper, we extend all these classical lower bounds to the quantum setting. They match the classical algorithmic results respectively, demonstrating that there is no quantum speedup for finding epsilon-stationary points of nonconvex functions with p-th order derivative inputs or stochastic gradient inputs, whether with or without the mean-squared smoothness assumption. Technically, our quantum lower bounds are obtained by showing that the sequential nature of classical hard instances in all these settings also applies to quantum queries, preventing any quantum speedup other than revealing information of the stationary points sequentially.

We study linear contextual bandits in the misspecified setting, where the expected reward function can be approximated by a linear function class up to a bounded misspecification level zeta>0. We propose an algorithm based on a novel data selection scheme, which only selects the contextual vectors with large uncertainty for online regression. We show that, when the misspecification level zeta is dominated by tilde O (Delta / d) with Delta being the minimal sub-optimality gap and d being the dimension of the contextual vectors, our algorithm enjoys the same gap-dependent regret bound tilde O (d^2/Delta) as in the well-specified setting up to logarithmic factors. In addition, we show that an existing algorithm SupLinUCB (Chu et al., 2011) can also achieve a gap-dependent constant regret bound without the knowledge of sub-optimality gap Delta. Together with a lower bound adapted from Lattimore et al. (2020), our result suggests an interplay between misspecification level and the sub-optimality gap: (1) the linear contextual bandit model is efficiently learnable when zeta leq tilde O(Delta / d); and (2) it is not efficiently learnable when zeta geq tilde Omega({Delta} / {d}). Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets corroborate our theoretical results.

Distribution shift presents a significant challenge in machine learning, where models often underperform during the test stage when faced with a different distribution than the one they were trained on. This paper focuses on domain shifts, which occur when the model is applied to new domains that are different from the ones it was trained on, and propose a new approach called D^3G. Unlike previous methods that aim to learn a single model that is domain invariant, D^3G leverages domain similarities based on domain metadata to learn domain-specific models. Concretely, D^3G learns a set of training-domain-specific functions during the training stage and reweights them based on domain relations during the test stage. These domain relations can be directly obtained and learned from domain metadata. Under mild assumptions, we theoretically prove that using domain relations to reweight training-domain-specific functions achieves stronger out-of-domain generalization compared to the conventional averaging approach. Empirically, we evaluate the effectiveness of D^3G using real-world datasets for tasks such as temperature regression, land use classification, and molecule-protein binding affinity prediction. Our results show that D^3G consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

Hoffmann et al. (2022) propose three methods for estimating a compute-optimal scaling law. We attempt to replicate their third estimation procedure, which involves fitting a parametric loss function to a reconstruction of data from their plots. We find that the reported estimates are inconsistent with their first two estimation methods, fail at fitting the extracted data, and report implausibly narrow confidence intervals--intervals this narrow would require over 600,000 experiments, while they likely only ran fewer than 500. In contrast, our rederivation of the scaling law using the third approach yields results that are compatible with the findings from the first two estimation procedures described by Hoffmann et al.

A burgeoning line of research leverages deep neural networks to approximate the solutions to high dimensional PDEs, opening lines of theoretical inquiry focused on explaining how it is that these models appear to evade the curse of dimensionality. However, most prior theoretical analyses have been limited to linear PDEs. In this work, we take a step towards studying the representational power of neural networks for approximating solutions to nonlinear PDEs. We focus on a class of PDEs known as nonlinear elliptic variational PDEs, whose solutions minimize an Euler-Lagrange energy functional E(u) = int_Omega L(x, u(x), nabla u(x)) - f(x) u(x)dx. We show that if composing a function with Barron norm b with partial derivatives of L produces a function of Barron norm at most B_L b^p, the solution to the PDE can be epsilon-approximated in the L^2 sense by a function with Barron norm Oleft(left(dB_Lright)^{max{p log(1/ epsilon), p^{log(1/epsilon)}}}right). By a classical result due to Barron [1993], this correspondingly bounds the size of a 2-layer neural network needed to approximate the solution. Treating p, epsilon, B_L as constants, this quantity is polynomial in dimension, thus showing neural networks can evade the curse of dimensionality. Our proof technique involves neurally simulating (preconditioned) gradient in an appropriate Hilbert space, which converges exponentially fast to the solution of the PDE, and such that we can bound the increase of the Barron norm at each iterate. Our results subsume and substantially generalize analogous prior results for linear elliptic PDEs over a unit hypercube.

We propose a penalized nonparametric approach to estimating the quantile regression process (QRP) in a nonseparable model using rectifier quadratic unit (ReQU) activated deep neural networks and introduce a novel penalty function to enforce non-crossing of quantile regression curves. We establish the non-asymptotic excess risk bounds for the estimated QRP and derive the mean integrated squared error for the estimated QRP under mild smoothness and regularity conditions. To establish these non-asymptotic risk and estimation error bounds, we also develop a new error bound for approximating C^s smooth functions with s >0 and their derivatives using ReQU activated neural networks. This is a new approximation result for ReQU networks and is of independent interest and may be useful in other problems. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed method is competitive with or outperforms two existing methods, including methods using reproducing kernels and random forests, for nonparametric quantile regression.

The ROC curve is the major tool for assessing not only the performance but also the fairness properties of a similarity scoring function. In order to draw reliable conclusions based on empirical ROC analysis, accurately evaluating the uncertainty level related to statistical versions of the ROC curves of interest is absolutely necessary, especially for applications with considerable societal impact such as Face Recognition. In this article, we prove asymptotic guarantees for empirical ROC curves of similarity functions as well as for by-product metrics useful to assess fairness. We also explain that, because the false acceptance/rejection rates are of the form of U-statistics in the case of similarity scoring, the naive bootstrap approach may jeopardize the assessment procedure. A dedicated recentering technique must be used instead. Beyond the theoretical analysis carried out, various experiments using real face image datasets provide strong empirical evidence of the practical relevance of the methods promoted here, when applied to several ROC-based measures such as popular fairness metrics.

In nonstationary bandit learning problems, the decision-maker must continually gather information and adapt their action selection as the latent state of the environment evolves. In each time period, some latent optimal action maximizes expected reward under the environment state. We view the optimal action sequence as a stochastic process, and take an information-theoretic approach to analyze attainable performance. We bound limiting per-period regret in terms of the entropy rate of the optimal action process. The bound applies to a wide array of problems studied in the literature and reflects the problem's information structure through its information-ratio.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

We prove a new upper bound on the generalization gap of classifiers that are obtained by first using self-supervision to learn a representation r of the training data, and then fitting a simple (e.g., linear) classifier g to the labels. Specifically, we show that (under the assumptions described below) the generalization gap of such classifiers tends to zero if C(g) ll n, where C(g) is an appropriately-defined measure of the simple classifier g's complexity, and n is the number of training samples. We stress that our bound is independent of the complexity of the representation r. We do not make any structural or conditional-independence assumptions on the representation-learning task, which can use the same training dataset that is later used for classification. Rather, we assume that the training procedure satisfies certain natural noise-robustness (adding small amount of label noise causes small degradation in performance) and rationality (getting the wrong label is not better than getting no label at all) conditions that widely hold across many standard architectures. We show that our bound is non-vacuous for many popular representation-learning based classifiers on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet, including SimCLR, AMDIM and MoCo.

In our era of enormous neural networks, empirical progress has been driven by the philosophy that more is better. Recent deep learning practice has found repeatedly that larger model size, more data, and more computation (resulting in lower training loss) improves performance. In this paper, we give theoretical backing to these empirical observations by showing that these three properties hold in random feature (RF) regression, a class of models equivalent to shallow networks with only the last layer trained. Concretely, we first show that the test risk of RF regression decreases monotonically with both the number of features and the number of samples, provided the ridge penalty is tuned optimally. In particular, this implies that infinite width RF architectures are preferable to those of any finite width. We then proceed to demonstrate that, for a large class of tasks characterized by powerlaw eigenstructure, training to near-zero training loss is obligatory: near-optimal performance can only be achieved when the training error is much smaller than the test error. Grounding our theory in real-world data, we find empirically that standard computer vision tasks with convolutional neural tangent kernels clearly fall into this class. Taken together, our results tell a simple, testable story of the benefits of overparameterization, overfitting, and more data in random feature models.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

PySR is an open-source library for practical symbolic regression, a type of machine learning which aims to discover human-interpretable symbolic models. PySR was developed to democratize and popularize symbolic regression for the sciences, and is built on a high-performance distributed back-end, a flexible search algorithm, and interfaces with several deep learning packages. PySR's internal search algorithm is a multi-population evolutionary algorithm, which consists of a unique evolve-simplify-optimize loop, designed for optimization of unknown scalar constants in newly-discovered empirical expressions. PySR's backend is the extremely optimized Julia library SymbolicRegression.jl, which can be used directly from Julia. It is capable of fusing user-defined operators into SIMD kernels at runtime, performing automatic differentiation, and distributing populations of expressions to thousands of cores across a cluster. In describing this software, we also introduce a new benchmark, "EmpiricalBench," to quantify the applicability of symbolic regression algorithms in science. This benchmark measures recovery of historical empirical equations from original and synthetic datasets.

We consider the problem of constructing small coresets for k-Median in Euclidean spaces. Given a large set of data points Psubset R^d, a coreset is a much smaller set Ssubset R^d, so that the k-Median costs of any k centers w.r.t. P and S are close. Existing literature mainly focuses on the high-dimension case and there has been great success in obtaining dimension-independent bounds, whereas the case for small d is largely unexplored. Considering many applications of Euclidean clustering algorithms are in small dimensions and the lack of systematic studies in the current literature, this paper investigates coresets for k-Median in small dimensions. For small d, a natural question is whether existing near-optimal dimension-independent bounds can be significantly improved. We provide affirmative answers to this question for a range of parameters. Moreover, new lower bound results are also proved, which are the highest for small d. In particular, we completely settle the coreset size bound for 1-d k-Median (up to log factors). Interestingly, our results imply a strong separation between 1-d 1-Median and 1-d 2-Median. As far as we know, this is the first such separation between k=1 and k=2 in any dimension.

We investigate the expressive power of depth-2 bandlimited random neural networks. A random net is a neural network where the hidden layer parameters are frozen with random assignment, and only the output layer parameters are trained by loss minimization. Using random weights for a hidden layer is an effective method to avoid non-convex optimization in standard gradient descent learning. It has also been adopted in recent deep learning theories. Despite the well-known fact that a neural network is a universal approximator, in this study, we mathematically show that when hidden parameters are distributed in a bounded domain, the network may not achieve zero approximation error. In particular, we derive a new nontrivial approximation error lower bound. The proof utilizes the technique of ridgelet analysis, a harmonic analysis method designed for neural networks. This method is inspired by fundamental principles in classical signal processing, specifically the idea that signals with limited bandwidth may not always be able to perfectly recreate the original signal. We corroborate our theoretical results with various simulation studies, and generally, two main take-home messages are offered: (i) Not any distribution for selecting random weights is feasible to build a universal approximator; (ii) A suitable assignment of random weights exists but to some degree is associated with the complexity of the target function.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

Measuring geometric similarity between high-dimensional network representations is a topic of longstanding interest to neuroscience and deep learning. Although many methods have been proposed, only a few works have rigorously analyzed their statistical efficiency or quantified estimator uncertainty in data-limited regimes. Here, we derive upper and lower bounds on the worst-case convergence of standard estimators of shape distancex2014a measure of representational dissimilarity proposed by Williams et al. (2021).These bounds reveal the challenging nature of the problem in high-dimensional feature spaces. To overcome these challenges, we introduce a new method-of-moments estimator with a tunable bias-variance tradeoff. We show that this estimator achieves substantially lower bias than standard estimators in simulation and on neural data, particularly in high-dimensional settings. Thus, we lay the foundation for a rigorous statistical theory for high-dimensional shape analysis, and we contribute a new estimation method that is well-suited to practical scientific settings.

Two different approaches exist to handle missing values for prediction: either imputation, prior to fitting any predictive algorithms, or dedicated methods able to natively incorporate missing values. While imputation is widely (and easily) use, it is unfortunately biased when low-capacity predictors (such as linear models) are applied afterward. However, in practice, naive imputation exhibits good predictive performance. In this paper, we study the impact of imputation in a high-dimensional linear model with MCAR missing data. We prove that zero imputation performs an implicit regularization closely related to the ridge method, often used in high-dimensional problems. Leveraging on this connection, we establish that the imputation bias is controlled by a ridge bias, which vanishes in high dimension. As a predictor, we argue in favor of the averaged SGD strategy, applied to zero-imputed data. We establish an upper bound on its generalization error, highlighting that imputation is benign in the d sqrt n regime. Experiments illustrate our findings.

We consider the task of evaluating policies of algorithmic resource allocation through randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Such policies are tasked with optimizing the utilization of limited intervention resources, with the goal of maximizing the benefits derived. Evaluation of such allocation policies through RCTs proves difficult, notwithstanding the scale of the trial, because the individuals' outcomes are inextricably interlinked through resource constraints controlling the policy decisions. Our key contribution is to present a new estimator leveraging our proposed novel concept, that involves retrospective reshuffling of participants across experimental arms at the end of an RCT. We identify conditions under which such reassignments are permissible and can be leveraged to construct counterfactual trials, whose outcomes can be accurately ascertained, for free. We prove theoretically that such an estimator is more accurate than common estimators based on sample means -- we show that it returns an unbiased estimate and simultaneously reduces variance. We demonstrate the value of our approach through empirical experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic as well as real case study data and show improved estimation accuracy across the board.

The scientific scale-up of large language models (LLMs) necessitates a comprehensive understanding of their scaling properties. However, the existing literature on the scaling properties only yields an incomplete answer: optimization loss decreases predictably as the model size increases, in line with established scaling law; yet no scaling law for task has been established and the task performances are far from predictable during scaling. Task performances typically show minor gains on small models until they improve dramatically once models exceed a size threshold, exemplifying the ``emergent abilities''. In this study, we discover that small models, although they exhibit minor performance, demonstrate critical and consistent task performance improvements that are not captured by conventional evaluation strategies due to insufficient measurement resolution. To measure such improvements, we introduce PassUntil, an evaluation strategy through massive sampling in the decoding phase. We conduct quantitative investigations into the scaling law of task performance. Firstly, a strict task scaling law is identified, enhancing the predictability of task performances. Remarkably, we are able to predict the performance of the 2.4B model on code generation with merely 0.05\% deviation before training starts. Secondly, underpinned by PassUntil, we observe concrete evidence of emergent abilities and ascertain that they are not in conflict with the continuity of performance improvement. Their semblance to break-through is that their scaling curve cannot be fitted by standard scaling law function. We then introduce a mathematical definition for the emergent abilities. Through the definition, we refute a prevalent ``multi-step reasoning hypothesis'' regarding the genesis of emergent abilities and propose a new hypothesis with a satisfying fit to the observed scaling curve.

We show that deep neural networks (DNNs) can efficiently learn any composition of functions with bounded F_{1}-norm, which allows DNNs to break the curse of dimensionality in ways that shallow networks cannot. More specifically, we derive a generalization bound that combines a covering number argument for compositionality, and the F_{1}-norm (or the related Barron norm) for large width adaptivity. We show that the global minimizer of the regularized loss of DNNs can fit for example the composition of two functions f^{*}=hcirc g from a small number of observations, assuming g is smooth/regular and reduces the dimensionality (e.g. g could be the modulo map of the symmetries of f^{*}), so that h can be learned in spite of its low regularity. The measures of regularity we consider is the Sobolev norm with different levels of differentiability, which is well adapted to the F_{1} norm. We compute scaling laws empirically and observe phase transitions depending on whether g or h is harder to learn, as predicted by our theory.

The problem of estimating an unknown discrete distribution from its samples is a fundamental tenet of statistical learning. Over the past decade, it attracted significant research effort and has been solved for a variety of divergence measures. Surprisingly, an equally important problem, estimating an unknown Markov chain from its samples, is still far from understood. We consider two problems related to the min-max risk (expected loss) of estimating an unknown k-state Markov chain from its n sequential samples: predicting the conditional distribution of the next sample with respect to the KL-divergence, and estimating the transition matrix with respect to a natural loss induced by KL or a more general f-divergence measure. For the first measure, we determine the min-max prediction risk to within a linear factor in the alphabet size, showing it is Omega(kloglog n / n) and O(k^2loglog n / n). For the second, if the transition probabilities can be arbitrarily small, then only trivial uniform risk upper bounds can be derived. We therefore consider transition probabilities that are bounded away from zero, and resolve the problem for essentially all sufficiently smooth f-divergences, including KL-, L_2-, Chi-squared, Hellinger, and Alpha-divergences.

In this paper, we find a sample complexity bound for learning a simplex from noisy samples. Assume a dataset of size n is given which includes i.i.d. samples drawn from a uniform distribution over an unknown simplex in R^K, where samples are assumed to be corrupted by a multi-variate additive Gaussian noise of an arbitrary magnitude. We prove the existence of an algorithm that with high probability outputs a simplex having a ell_2 distance of at most varepsilon from the true simplex (for any varepsilon>0). Also, we theoretically show that in order to achieve this bound, it is sufficient to have ngeleft(K^2/varepsilon^2right)e^{Omegaleft(K/SNR^2right)} samples, where SNR stands for the signal-to-noise ratio. This result solves an important open problem and shows as long as SNRgeOmegaleft(K^{1/2}right), the sample complexity of the noisy regime has the same order to that of the noiseless case. Our proofs are a combination of the so-called sample compression technique in ashtiani2018nearly, mathematical tools from high-dimensional geometry, and Fourier analysis. In particular, we have proposed a general Fourier-based technique for recovery of a more general class of distribution families from additive Gaussian noise, which can be further used in a variety of other related problems.

Understanding and analyzing markets is crucial, yet analytical equilibrium solutions remain largely infeasible. Recent breakthroughs in equilibrium computation rely on zeroth-order policy gradient estimation. These approaches commonly suffer from high variance and are computationally expensive. The use of fully differentiable simulators would enable more efficient gradient estimation. However, the discrete allocation of goods in economic simulations is a non-differentiable operation. This renders the first-order Monte Carlo gradient estimator inapplicable and the learning feedback systematically misleading. We propose a novel smoothing technique that creates a surrogate market game, in which first-order methods can be applied. We provide theoretical bounds on the resulting bias which justifies solving the smoothed game instead. These bounds also allow choosing the smoothing strength a priori such that the resulting estimate has low variance. Furthermore, we validate our approach via numerous empirical experiments. Our method theoretically and empirically outperforms zeroth-order methods in approximation quality and computational efficiency.

Fairness for machine learning predictions is widely required in practice for legal, ethical, and societal reasons. Existing work typically focuses on settings without unobserved confounding, even though unobserved confounding can lead to severe violations of causal fairness and, thus, unfair predictions. In this work, we analyze the sensitivity of causal fairness to unobserved confounding. Our contributions are three-fold. First, we derive bounds for causal fairness metrics under different sources of unobserved confounding. This enables practitioners to examine the sensitivity of their machine learning models to unobserved confounding in fairness-critical applications. Second, we propose a novel neural framework for learning fair predictions, which allows us to offer worst-case guarantees of the extent to which causal fairness can be violated due to unobserved confounding. Third, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in a series of experiments, including a real-world case study about predicting prison sentences. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first work to study causal fairness under unobserved confounding. To this end, our work is of direct practical value as a refutation strategy to ensure the fairness of predictions in high-stakes applications.

We propose an approach to estimate the number of samples required for a model to reach a target performance. We find that the power law, the de facto principle to estimate model performance, leads to large error when using a small dataset (e.g., 5 samples per class) for extrapolation. This is because the log-performance error against the log-dataset size follows a nonlinear progression in the few-shot regime followed by a linear progression in the high-shot regime. We introduce a novel piecewise power law (PPL) that handles the two data regimes differently. To estimate the parameters of the PPL, we introduce a random forest regressor trained via meta learning that generalizes across classification/detection tasks, ResNet/ViT based architectures, and random/pre-trained initializations. The PPL improves the performance estimation on average by 37% across 16 classification and 33% across 10 detection datasets, compared to the power law. We further extend the PPL to provide a confidence bound and use it to limit the prediction horizon that reduces over-estimation of data by 76% on classification and 91% on detection datasets.

We present a generic framework for creating differentially private versions of any hypothesis test in a black-box way. We analyze the resulting tests analytically and experimentally. Most crucially, we show good practical performance for small data sets, showing that at epsilon = 1 we only need 5-6 times as much data as in the fully public setting. We compare our work to the one existing framework of this type, as well as to several individually-designed private hypothesis tests. Our framework is higher power than other generic solutions and at least competitive with (and often better than) individually-designed tests.

Seven years ago, researchers proposed a postprocessing method to equalize the error rates of a model across different demographic groups. The work launched hundreds of papers purporting to improve over the postprocessing baseline. We empirically evaluate these claims through thousands of model evaluations on several tabular datasets. We find that the fairness-accuracy Pareto frontier achieved by postprocessing contains all other methods we were feasibly able to evaluate. In doing so, we address two common methodological errors that have confounded previous observations. One relates to the comparison of methods with different unconstrained base models. The other concerns methods achieving different levels of constraint relaxation. At the heart of our study is a simple idea we call unprocessing that roughly corresponds to the inverse of postprocessing. Unprocessing allows for a direct comparison of methods using different underlying models and levels of relaxation.

Given a sample of size N, it is often useful to select a subsample of smaller size n<N to be used for statistical estimation or learning. Such a data selection step is useful to reduce the requirements of data labeling and the computational complexity of learning. We assume to be given N unlabeled samples {{boldsymbol x}_i}_{ile N}, and to be given access to a `surrogate model' that can predict labels y_i better than random guessing. Our goal is to select a subset of the samples, to be denoted by {{boldsymbol x}_i}_{iin G}, of size |G|=n<N. We then acquire labels for this set and we use them to train a model via regularized empirical risk minimization. By using a mixture of numerical experiments on real and synthetic data, and mathematical derivations under low- and high- dimensional asymptotics, we show that: (i)~Data selection can be very effective, in particular beating training on the full sample in some cases; (ii)~Certain popular choices in data selection methods (e.g. unbiased reweighted subsampling, or influence function-based subsampling) can be substantially suboptimal.

We study convergence lower bounds of without-replacement stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for solving smooth (strongly-)convex finite-sum minimization problems. Unlike most existing results focusing on final iterate lower bounds in terms of the number of components n and the number of epochs K, we seek bounds for arbitrary weighted average iterates that are tight in all factors including the condition number kappa. For SGD with Random Reshuffling, we present lower bounds that have tighter kappa dependencies than existing bounds. Our results are the first to perfectly close the gap between lower and upper bounds for weighted average iterates in both strongly-convex and convex cases. We also prove weighted average iterate lower bounds for arbitrary permutation-based SGD, which apply to all variants that carefully choose the best permutation. Our bounds improve the existing bounds in factors of n and kappa and thereby match the upper bounds shown for a recently proposed algorithm called GraB.

Differential privacy (DP) is by far the most widely accepted framework for mitigating privacy risks in machine learning. However, exactly how small the privacy parameter epsilon needs to be to protect against certain privacy risks in practice is still not well-understood. In this work, we study data reconstruction attacks for discrete data and analyze it under the framework of multiple hypothesis testing. We utilize different variants of the celebrated Fano's inequality to derive upper bounds on the inferential power of a data reconstruction adversary when the model is trained differentially privately. Importantly, we show that if the underlying private data takes values from a set of size M, then the target privacy parameter epsilon can be O(log M) before the adversary gains significant inferential power. Our analysis offers theoretical evidence for the empirical effectiveness of DP against data reconstruction attacks even at relatively large values of epsilon.

It has been shown that deep neural networks of a large enough width are universal approximators but they are not if the width is too small. There were several attempts to characterize the minimum width w_{min} enabling the universal approximation property; however, only a few of them found the exact values. In this work, we show that the minimum width for L^p approximation of L^p functions from [0,1]^{d_x} to mathbb R^{d_y} is exactly max{d_x,d_y,2} if an activation function is ReLU-Like (e.g., ReLU, GELU, Softplus). Compared to the known result for ReLU networks, w_{min}=max{d_x+1,d_y} when the domain is mathbb R^{d_x}, our result first shows that approximation on a compact domain requires smaller width than on mathbb R^{d_x}. We next prove a lower bound on w_{min} for uniform approximation using general activation functions including ReLU: w_{min}ge d_y+1 if d_x<d_yle2d_x. Together with our first result, this shows a dichotomy between L^p and uniform approximations for general activation functions and input/output dimensions.

In this paper, we derive a novel bound on the generalization error of Magnitude-Based pruning of overparameterized neural networks. Our work builds on the bounds in Arora et al. [2018] where the error depends on one, the approximation induced by pruning, and two, the number of parameters in the pruned model, and improves upon standard norm-based generalization bounds. The pruned estimates obtained using our new Magnitude-Based compression algorithm are close to the unpruned functions with high probability, which improves the first criteria. Using Sparse Matrix Sketching, the space of the pruned matrices can be efficiently represented in the space of dense matrices of much smaller dimensions, thereby lowering the second criterion. This leads to stronger generalization bound than many state-of-the-art methods, thereby breaking new ground in the algorithm development for pruning and bounding generalization error of overparameterized models. Beyond this, we extend our results to obtain generalization bound for Iterative Pruning [Frankle and Carbin, 2018]. We empirically verify the success of this new method on ReLU-activated Feed Forward Networks on the MNIST and CIFAR10 datasets.

In large scale machine learning, random sampling is a popular way to approximate datasets by a small representative subset of examples. In particular, sensitivity sampling is an intensely studied technique which provides provable guarantees on the quality of approximation, while reducing the number of examples to the product of the VC dimension d and the total sensitivity mathfrak S in remarkably general settings. However, guarantees going beyond this general bound of mathfrak S d are known in perhaps only one setting, for ell_2 subspace embeddings, despite intense study of sensitivity sampling in prior work. In this work, we show the first bounds for sensitivity sampling for ell_p subspace embeddings for pneq 2 that improve over the general mathfrak S d bound, achieving a bound of roughly mathfrak S^{2/p} for 1leq p<2 and mathfrak S^{2-2/p} for 2<p<infty. For 1leq p<2, we show that this bound is tight, in the sense that there exist matrices for which mathfrak S^{2/p} samples is necessary. Furthermore, our techniques yield further new results in the study of sampling algorithms, showing that the root leverage score sampling algorithm achieves a bound of roughly d for 1leq p<2, and that a combination of leverage score and sensitivity sampling achieves an improved bound of roughly d^{2/p}mathfrak S^{2-4/p} for 2<p<infty. Our sensitivity sampling results yield the best known sample complexity for a wide class of structured matrices that have small ell_p sensitivity.

When fitting the learning data of an individual to algorithm-like learning models, the observations are so dependent and non-stationary that one may wonder what the classical Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) could do, even if it is the usual tool applied to experimental cognition. Our objective in this work is to show that the estimation of the learning rate cannot be efficient if the learning rate is constant in the classical Exp3 (Exponential weights for Exploration and Exploitation) algorithm. Secondly, we show that if the learning rate decreases polynomially with the sample size, then the prediction error and in some cases the estimation error of the MLE satisfy bounds in probability that decrease at a polynomial rate.

We consider learning in an adversarial Markov Decision Process (MDP) where the loss functions can change arbitrarily over K episodes and the state space can be arbitrarily large. We assume that the Q-function of any policy is linear in some known features, that is, a linear function approximation exists. The best existing regret upper bound for this setting (Luo et al., 2021) is of order mathcal O(K^{2/3}) (omitting all other dependencies), given access to a simulator. This paper provides two algorithms that improve the regret to mathcal O(sqrt K) in the same setting. Our first algorithm makes use of a refined analysis of the Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) algorithm with the log-barrier regularizer. This analysis allows the loss estimators to be arbitrarily negative and might be of independent interest. Our second algorithm develops a magnitude-reduced loss estimator, further removing the polynomial dependency on the number of actions in the first algorithm and leading to the optimal regret bound (up to logarithmic terms and dependency on the horizon). Moreover, we also extend the first algorithm to simulator-free linear MDPs, which achieves mathcal O(K^{8/9}) regret and greatly improves over the best existing bound mathcal O(K^{14/15}). This algorithm relies on a better alternative to the Matrix Geometric Resampling procedure by Neu & Olkhovskaya (2020), which could again be of independent interest.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

We study the task of agnostically learning halfspaces under the Gaussian distribution. Specifically, given labeled examples (x,y) from an unknown distribution on R^n times { pm 1}, whose marginal distribution on x is the standard Gaussian and the labels y can be arbitrary, the goal is to output a hypothesis with 0-1 loss OPT+epsilon, where OPT is the 0-1 loss of the best-fitting halfspace. We prove a near-optimal computational hardness result for this task, under the widely believed sub-exponential time hardness of the Learning with Errors (LWE) problem. Prior hardness results are either qualitatively suboptimal or apply to restricted families of algorithms. Our techniques extend to yield near-optimal lower bounds for related problems, including ReLU regression.

In this paper, we study the predict-then-optimize problem where the output of a machine learning prediction task is used as the input of some downstream optimization problem, say, the objective coefficient vector of a linear program. The problem is also known as predictive analytics or contextual linear programming. The existing approaches largely suffer from either (i) optimization intractability (a non-convex objective function)/statistical inefficiency (a suboptimal generalization bound) or (ii) requiring strong condition(s) such as no constraint or loss calibration. We develop a new approach to the problem called maximum optimality margin which designs the machine learning loss function by the optimality condition of the downstream optimization. The max-margin formulation enjoys both computational efficiency and good theoretical properties for the learning procedure. More importantly, our new approach only needs the observations of the optimal solution in the training data rather than the objective function, which makes it a new and natural approach to the inverse linear programming problem under both contextual and context-free settings; we also analyze the proposed method under both offline and online settings, and demonstrate its performance using numerical experiments.

We study the problem of classification with a reject option for a fixed predictor, applicable in natural language processing. We introduce a new problem formulation for this scenario, and an algorithm minimizing a new surrogate loss function. We provide a complete theoretical analysis of the surrogate loss function with a strong H-consistency guarantee. For evaluation, we choose the decontextualization task, and provide a manually-labelled dataset of 2mathord,000 examples. Our algorithm significantly outperforms the baselines considered, with a sim!!25% improvement in coverage when halving the error rate, which is only sim!! 3 % away from the theoretical limit.

Given a set of dissimilarity measurements amongst data points, determining what metric representation is most "consistent" with the input measurements or the metric that best captures the relevant geometric features of the data is a key step in many machine learning algorithms. Existing methods are restricted to specific kinds of metrics or small problem sizes because of the large number of metric constraints in such problems. In this paper, we provide an active set algorithm, Project and Forget, that uses Bregman projections, to solve metric constrained problems with many (possibly exponentially) inequality constraints. We provide a theoretical analysis of Project and Forget and prove that our algorithm converges to the global optimal solution and that the L_2 distance of the current iterate to the optimal solution decays asymptotically at an exponential rate. We demonstrate that using our method we can solve large problem instances of three types of metric constrained problems: general weight correlation clustering, metric nearness, and metric learning; in each case, out-performing the state of the art methods with respect to CPU times and problem sizes.

This paper investigates discrepancies in how neural networks learn from different imaging domains, which are commonly overlooked when adopting computer vision techniques from the domain of natural images to other specialized domains such as medical images. Recent works have found that the generalization error of a trained network typically increases with the intrinsic dimension (d_{data}) of its training set. Yet, the steepness of this relationship varies significantly between medical (radiological) and natural imaging domains, with no existing theoretical explanation. We address this gap in knowledge by establishing and empirically validating a generalization scaling law with respect to d_{data}, and propose that the substantial scaling discrepancy between the two considered domains may be at least partially attributed to the higher intrinsic ``label sharpness'' (K_F) of medical imaging datasets, a metric which we propose. Next, we demonstrate an additional benefit of measuring the label sharpness of a training set: it is negatively correlated with the trained model's adversarial robustness, which notably leads to models for medical images having a substantially higher vulnerability to adversarial attack. Finally, we extend our d_{data} formalism to the related metric of learned representation intrinsic dimension (d_{repr}), derive a generalization scaling law with respect to d_{repr}, and show that d_{data} serves as an upper bound for d_{repr}. Our theoretical results are supported by thorough experiments with six models and eleven natural and medical imaging datasets over a range of training set sizes. Our findings offer insights into the influence of intrinsic dataset properties on generalization, representation learning, and robustness in deep neural networks. Code link: https://github.com/mazurowski-lab/intrinsic-properties

A primary cost driver for training large models is wall-clock training time. We show that popular time estimates based on FLOPs are poor estimates, and construct a more accurate proxy based on memory copies. We show that with some simple accounting, we can estimate the training speed of a transformer model from its hyperparameters. Combined with a scaling law curve like Chinchilla, this lets us estimate the final loss of the model. We fit our estimate to real data with a linear regression, and apply the result to rewrite Chinchilla in terms of a model's estimated training time as opposed to the amount of training data. This gives an expression for the loss in terms of the model's hyperparameters alone. We show that this expression is accurate across a wide range of model hyperparameter values, enabling us to analytically make architectural decisions and train models more efficiently.

We begin the study of list-decodable linear regression using batches. In this setting only an alpha in (0,1] fraction of the batches are genuine. Each genuine batch contains ge n i.i.d. samples from a common unknown distribution and the remaining batches may contain arbitrary or even adversarial samples. We derive a polynomial time algorithm that for any nge tilde Omega(1/alpha) returns a list of size mathcal O(1/alpha^2) such that one of the items in the list is close to the true regression parameter. The algorithm requires only mathcal{O}(d/alpha^2) genuine batches and works under fairly general assumptions on the distribution. The results demonstrate the utility of batch structure, which allows for the first polynomial time algorithm for list-decodable regression, which may be impossible for the non-batch setting, as suggested by a recent SQ lower bound diakonikolas2021statistical for the non-batch setting.