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Mar 14

Potential of Multimodal Large Language Models for Data Mining of Medical Images and Free-text Reports

Medical images and radiology reports are crucial for diagnosing medical conditions, highlighting the importance of quantitative analysis for clinical decision-making. However, the diversity and cross-source heterogeneity of these data challenge the generalizability of current data-mining methods. Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have recently transformed many domains, significantly affecting the medical field. Notably, Gemini-Vision-series (Gemini) and GPT-4-series (GPT-4) models have epitomized a paradigm shift in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) for computer vision, showcasing their potential in the biomedical domain. In this study, we evaluated the performance of the Gemini, GPT-4, and 4 popular large models for an exhaustive evaluation across 14 medical imaging datasets, including 5 medical imaging categories (dermatology, radiology, dentistry, ophthalmology, and endoscopy), and 3 radiology report datasets. The investigated tasks encompass disease classification, lesion segmentation, anatomical localization, disease diagnosis, report generation, and lesion detection. Our experimental results demonstrated that Gemini-series models excelled in report generation and lesion detection but faces challenges in disease classification and anatomical localization. Conversely, GPT-series models exhibited proficiency in lesion segmentation and anatomical localization but encountered difficulties in disease diagnosis and lesion detection. Additionally, both the Gemini series and GPT series contain models that have demonstrated commendable generation efficiency. While both models hold promise in reducing physician workload, alleviating pressure on limited healthcare resources, and fostering collaboration between clinical practitioners and artificial intelligence technologies, substantial enhancements and comprehensive validations remain imperative before clinical deployment.

Video-MME: The First-Ever Comprehensive Evaluation Benchmark of Multi-modal LLMs in Video Analysis

In the quest for artificial general intelligence, Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have emerged as a focal point in recent advancements. However, the predominant focus remains on developing their capabilities in static image understanding. The potential of MLLMs in processing sequential visual data is still insufficiently explored, highlighting the absence of a comprehensive, high-quality assessment of their performance. In this paper, we introduce Video-MME, the first-ever full-spectrum, Multi-Modal Evaluation benchmark of MLLMs in Video analysis. Our work distinguishes from existing benchmarks through four key features: 1) Diversity in video types, spanning 6 primary visual domains with 30 subfields to ensure broad scenario generalizability; 2) Duration in temporal dimension, encompassing both short-, medium-, and long-term videos, ranging from 11 seconds to 1 hour, for robust contextual dynamics; 3) Breadth in data modalities, integrating multi-modal inputs besides video frames, including subtitles and audios, to unveil the all-round capabilities of MLLMs; 4) Quality in annotations, utilizing rigorous manual labeling by expert annotators to facilitate precise and reliable model assessment. 900 videos with a total of 256 hours are manually selected and annotated by repeatedly viewing all the video content, resulting in 2,700 question-answer pairs. With Video-MME, we extensively evaluate various state-of-the-art MLLMs, including GPT-4 series and Gemini 1.5 Pro, as well as open-source image models like InternVL-Chat-V1.5 and video models like LLaVA-NeXT-Video. Our experiments reveal that Gemini 1.5 Pro is the best-performing commercial model, significantly outperforming the open-source models. Our dataset along with these findings underscores the need for further improvements in handling longer sequences and multi-modal data. Project Page: https://video-mme.github.io

From Medprompt to o1: Exploration of Run-Time Strategies for Medical Challenge Problems and Beyond

Run-time steering strategies like Medprompt are valuable for guiding large language models (LLMs) to top performance on challenging tasks. Medprompt demonstrates that a general LLM can be focused to deliver state-of-the-art performance on specialized domains like medicine by using a prompt to elicit a run-time strategy involving chain of thought reasoning and ensembling. OpenAI's o1-preview model represents a new paradigm, where a model is designed to do run-time reasoning before generating final responses. We seek to understand the behavior of o1-preview on a diverse set of medical challenge problem benchmarks. Following on the Medprompt study with GPT-4, we systematically evaluate the o1-preview model across various medical benchmarks. Notably, even without prompting techniques, o1-preview largely outperforms the GPT-4 series with Medprompt. We further systematically study the efficacy of classic prompt engineering strategies, as represented by Medprompt, within the new paradigm of reasoning models. We found that few-shot prompting hinders o1's performance, suggesting that in-context learning may no longer be an effective steering approach for reasoning-native models. While ensembling remains viable, it is resource-intensive and requires careful cost-performance optimization. Our cost and accuracy analysis across run-time strategies reveals a Pareto frontier, with GPT-4o representing a more affordable option and o1-preview achieving state-of-the-art performance at higher cost. Although o1-preview offers top performance, GPT-4o with steering strategies like Medprompt retains value in specific contexts. Moreover, we note that the o1-preview model has reached near-saturation on many existing medical benchmarks, underscoring the need for new, challenging benchmarks. We close with reflections on general directions for inference-time computation with LLMs.

Are ChatGPT and GPT-4 Good Poker Players? -- A Pre-Flop Analysis

Since the introduction of ChatGPT and GPT-4, these models have been tested across a large number of tasks. Their adeptness across domains is evident, but their aptitude in playing games, and specifically their aptitude in the realm of poker has remained unexplored. Poker is a game that requires decision making under uncertainty and incomplete information. In this paper, we put ChatGPT and GPT-4 through the poker test and evaluate their poker skills. Our findings reveal that while both models display an advanced understanding of poker, encompassing concepts like the valuation of starting hands, playing positions and other intricacies of game theory optimal (GTO) poker, both ChatGPT and GPT-4 are NOT game theory optimal poker players. Profitable strategies in poker are evaluated in expectations over large samples. Through a series of experiments, we first discover the characteristics of optimal prompts and model parameters for playing poker with these models. Our observations then unveil the distinct playing personas of the two models. We first conclude that GPT-4 is a more advanced poker player than ChatGPT. This exploration then sheds light on the divergent poker tactics of the two models: ChatGPT's conservativeness juxtaposed against GPT-4's aggression. In poker vernacular, when tasked to play GTO poker, ChatGPT plays like a nit, which means that it has a propensity to only engage with premium hands and folds a majority of hands. When subjected to the same directive, GPT-4 plays like a maniac, showcasing a loose and aggressive style of play. Both strategies, although relatively advanced, are not game theory optimal.

EmoLLMs: A Series of Emotional Large Language Models and Annotation Tools for Comprehensive Affective Analysis

Sentiment analysis and emotion detection are important research topics in natural language processing (NLP) and benefit many downstream tasks. With the widespread application of LLMs, researchers have started exploring the application of LLMs based on instruction-tuning in the field of sentiment analysis. However, these models only focus on single aspects of affective classification tasks (e.g. sentimental polarity or categorical emotions), and overlook the regression tasks (e.g. sentiment strength or emotion intensity), which leads to poor performance in downstream tasks. The main reason is the lack of comprehensive affective instruction tuning datasets and evaluation benchmarks, which cover various affective classification and regression tasks. Moreover, although emotional information is useful for downstream tasks, existing downstream datasets lack high-quality and comprehensive affective annotations. In this paper, we propose EmoLLMs, the first series of open-sourced instruction-following LLMs for comprehensive affective analysis based on fine-tuning various LLMs with instruction data, the first multi-task affective analysis instruction dataset (AAID) with 234K data samples based on various classification and regression tasks to support LLM instruction tuning, and a comprehensive affective evaluation benchmark (AEB) with 14 tasks from various sources and domains to test the generalization ability of LLMs. We propose a series of EmoLLMs by fine-tuning LLMs with AAID to solve various affective instruction tasks. We compare our model with a variety of LLMs on AEB, where our models outperform all other open-sourced LLMs, and surpass ChatGPT and GPT-4 in most tasks, which shows that the series of EmoLLMs achieve the ChatGPT-level and GPT-4-level generalization capabilities on affective analysis tasks, and demonstrates our models can be used as affective annotation tools.

PoAct: Policy and Action Dual-Control Agent for Generalized Applications

Based on their superior comprehension and reasoning capabilities, Large Language Model (LLM) driven agent frameworks have achieved significant success in numerous complex reasoning tasks. ReAct-like agents can solve various intricate problems step-by-step through progressive planning and tool calls, iteratively optimizing new steps based on environmental feedback. However, as the planning capabilities of LLMs improve, the actions invoked by tool calls in ReAct-like frameworks often misalign with complex planning and challenging data organization. Code Action addresses these issues while also introducing the challenges of a more complex action space and more difficult action organization. To leverage Code Action and tackle the challenges of its complexity, this paper proposes Policy and Action Dual-Control Agent (PoAct) for generalized applications. The aim is to achieve higher-quality code actions and more accurate reasoning paths by dynamically switching reasoning policies and modifying the action space. Experimental results on the Agent Benchmark for both legal and generic scenarios demonstrate the superior reasoning capabilities and reduced token consumption of our approach in complex tasks. On the LegalAgentBench, our method shows a 20 percent improvement over the baseline while requiring fewer tokens. We conducted experiments and analyses on the GPT-4o and GLM-4 series models, demonstrating the significant potential and scalability of our approach to solve complex problems.

PokerBench: Training Large Language Models to become Professional Poker Players

We introduce PokerBench - a benchmark for evaluating the poker-playing abilities of large language models (LLMs). As LLMs excel in traditional NLP tasks, their application to complex, strategic games like poker poses a new challenge. Poker, an incomplete information game, demands a multitude of skills such as mathematics, reasoning, planning, strategy, and a deep understanding of game theory and human psychology. This makes Poker the ideal next frontier for large language models. PokerBench consists of a comprehensive compilation of 11,000 most important scenarios, split between pre-flop and post-flop play, developed in collaboration with trained poker players. We evaluate prominent models including GPT-4, ChatGPT 3.5, and various Llama and Gemma series models, finding that all state-of-the-art LLMs underperform in playing optimal poker. However, after fine-tuning, these models show marked improvements. We validate PokerBench by having models with different scores compete with each other, demonstrating that higher scores on PokerBench lead to higher win rates in actual poker games. Through gameplay between our fine-tuned model and GPT-4, we also identify limitations of simple supervised fine-tuning for learning optimal playing strategy, suggesting the need for more advanced methodologies for effectively training language models to excel in games. PokerBench thus presents a unique benchmark for a quick and reliable evaluation of the poker-playing ability of LLMs as well as a comprehensive benchmark to study the progress of LLMs in complex game-playing scenarios. The dataset and code will be made available at: https://github.com/pokerllm/pokerbench.

CodeAttack: Revealing Safety Generalization Challenges of Large Language Models via Code Completion

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has brought about remarkable generative capabilities but also raised concerns about their potential misuse. While strategies like supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning from human feedback have enhanced their safety, these methods primarily focus on natural languages, which may not generalize to other domains. This paper introduces CodeAttack, a framework that transforms natural language inputs into code inputs, presenting a novel environment for testing the safety generalization of LLMs. Our comprehensive studies on state-of-the-art LLMs including GPT-4, Claude-2, and Llama-2 series reveal a new and universal safety vulnerability of these models against code input: CodeAttack bypasses the safety guardrails of all models more than 80\% of the time. We find that a larger distribution gap between CodeAttack and natural language leads to weaker safety generalization, such as encoding natural language input with data structures. Furthermore, we give our hypotheses about the success of CodeAttack: the misaligned bias acquired by LLMs during code training, prioritizing code completion over avoiding the potential safety risk. Finally, we analyze potential mitigation measures. These findings highlight new safety risks in the code domain and the need for more robust safety alignment algorithms to match the code capabilities of LLMs.

Understanding the Effectiveness of Large Language Models in Detecting Security Vulnerabilities

Security vulnerabilities in modern software are prevalent and harmful. While automated vulnerability detection tools have made promising progress, their scalability and applicability remain challenging. Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs), such as GPT-4 and CodeLlama, have demonstrated remarkable performance on code-related tasks. However, it is unknown whether such LLMs can do complex reasoning over code. In this work, we explore whether pre-trained LLMs can detect security vulnerabilities and address the limitations of existing tools. We evaluate the effectiveness of pre-trained LLMs on a set of five diverse security benchmarks spanning two languages, Java and C/C++, and including code samples from synthetic and real-world projects. We evaluate the effectiveness of LLMs in terms of their performance, explainability, and robustness. By designing a series of effective prompting strategies, we obtain the best results on the synthetic datasets with GPT-4: F1 scores of 0.79 on OWASP, 0.86 on Juliet Java, and 0.89 on Juliet C/C++. Expectedly, the performance of LLMs drops on the more challenging real-world datasets: CVEFixes Java and CVEFixes C/C++, with GPT-4 reporting F1 scores of 0.48 and 0.62, respectively. We show that LLMs can often perform better than existing static analysis and deep learning-based vulnerability detection tools, especially for certain classes of vulnerabilities. Moreover, LLMs also often provide reliable explanations, identifying the vulnerable data flows in code. We find that fine-tuning smaller LLMs can outperform the larger LLMs on synthetic datasets but provide limited gains on real-world datasets. When subjected to adversarial attacks on code, LLMs show mild degradation, with average accuracy reduction of up to 12.67%. Finally, we share our insights and recommendations for future work on leveraging LLMs for vulnerability detection.

AmpleGCG-Plus: A Strong Generative Model of Adversarial Suffixes to Jailbreak LLMs with Higher Success Rates in Fewer Attempts

Although large language models (LLMs) are typically aligned, they remain vulnerable to jailbreaking through either carefully crafted prompts in natural language or, interestingly, gibberish adversarial suffixes. However, gibberish tokens have received relatively less attention despite their success in attacking aligned LLMs. Recent work, AmpleGCG~liao2024amplegcg, demonstrates that a generative model can quickly produce numerous customizable gibberish adversarial suffixes for any harmful query, exposing a range of alignment gaps in out-of-distribution (OOD) language spaces. To bring more attention to this area, we introduce AmpleGCG-Plus, an enhanced version that achieves better performance in fewer attempts. Through a series of exploratory experiments, we identify several training strategies to improve the learning of gibberish suffixes. Our results, verified under a strict evaluation setting, show that it outperforms AmpleGCG on both open-weight and closed-source models, achieving increases in attack success rate (ASR) of up to 17\% in the white-box setting against Llama-2-7B-chat, and more than tripling ASR in the black-box setting against GPT-4. Notably, AmpleGCG-Plus jailbreaks the newer GPT-4o series of models at similar rates to GPT-4, and, uncovers vulnerabilities against the recently proposed circuit breakers defense. We publicly release AmpleGCG-Plus along with our collected training datasets.

Evaluating Language Models for Mathematics through Interactions

The standard methodology of evaluating large language models (LLMs) based on static pairs of inputs and outputs is insufficient for developing assistants: this kind of assessments fails to take into account the essential interactive element in their deployment, and therefore limits how we understand language model capabilities. We introduce CheckMate, an adaptable prototype platform for humans to interact with and evaluate LLMs. We conduct a study with CheckMate to evaluate three language models~(InstructGPT, ChatGPT, and GPT-4) as assistants in proving undergraduate-level mathematics, with a mixed cohort of participants from undergraduate students to professors of mathematics. We release the resulting interaction and rating dataset, MathConverse. By analysing MathConverse, we derive a preliminary taxonomy of human behaviours and uncover that despite a generally positive correlation, there are notable instances of divergence between correctness and perceived helpfulness in LLM generations, amongst other findings. Further, we identify useful scenarios and existing issues of GPT-4 in mathematical reasoning through a series of case studies contributed by expert mathematicians. We conclude with actionable takeaways for ML practitioners and mathematicians: models which communicate uncertainty, respond well to user corrections, are more interpretable and concise may constitute better assistants; interactive evaluation is a promising way to continually navigate the capability of these models; humans should be aware of language models' algebraic fallibility, and for that reason discern where they should be used.

Table Meets LLM: Can Large Language Models Understand Structured Table Data? A Benchmark and Empirical Study

Large language models (LLMs) are becoming attractive as few-shot reasoners to solve Natural Language (NL)-related tasks. However, the understanding of their capability to process structured data like tables remains an under-explored area. While tables can be serialized as input for LLMs, there is a lack of comprehensive studies on whether LLMs genuinely comprehend this data. In this paper, we try to understand this by designing a benchmark to evaluate the structural understanding capabilities of LLMs through seven distinct tasks, e.g., cell lookup, row retrieval and size detection. Specially, we perform a series of evaluations on the recent most advanced LLM models, GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 and observe that performance varied with different input choices, including table input format, content order, role prompting, and partition marks. Drawing from the insights gained through the benchmark evaluations, we propose self-augmentation for effective structural prompting, such as critical value / range identification using internal knowledge of LLMs. When combined with carefully chosen input choices, these structural prompting methods lead to promising improvements in LLM performance on a variety of tabular tasks, e.g., TabFact(uparrow2.31%), HybridQA(uparrow2.13%), SQA(uparrow2.72%), Feverous(uparrow0.84%), and ToTTo(uparrow5.68%). We believe that our open source benchmark and proposed prompting methods can serve as a simple yet generic selection for future research. The code and data of this paper will be temporality released at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/StructuredLLM-76F3/README.md and will be replaced with an official one at https://github.com/microsoft/TableProvider later.

Step-DPO: Step-wise Preference Optimization for Long-chain Reasoning of LLMs

Mathematical reasoning presents a significant challenge for Large Language Models (LLMs) due to the extensive and precise chain of reasoning required for accuracy. Ensuring the correctness of each reasoning step is critical. To address this, we aim to enhance the robustness and factuality of LLMs by learning from human feedback. However, Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) has shown limited benefits for long-chain mathematical reasoning, as models employing DPO struggle to identify detailed errors in incorrect answers. This limitation stems from a lack of fine-grained process supervision. We propose a simple, effective, and data-efficient method called Step-DPO, which treats individual reasoning steps as units for preference optimization rather than evaluating answers holistically. Additionally, we have developed a data construction pipeline for Step-DPO, enabling the creation of a high-quality dataset containing 10K step-wise preference pairs. We also observe that in DPO, self-generated data is more effective than data generated by humans or GPT-4, due to the latter's out-of-distribution nature. Our findings demonstrate that as few as 10K preference data pairs and fewer than 500 Step-DPO training steps can yield a nearly 3% gain in accuracy on MATH for models with over 70B parameters. Notably, Step-DPO, when applied to Qwen2-72B-Instruct, achieves scores of 70.8% and 94.0% on the test sets of MATH and GSM8K, respectively, surpassing a series of closed-source models, including GPT-4-1106, Claude-3-Opus, and Gemini-1.5-Pro. Our code, data, and models are available at https://github.com/dvlab-research/Step-DPO.

Generative Pretrained Hierarchical Transformer for Time Series Forecasting

Recent efforts have been dedicated to enhancing time series forecasting accuracy by introducing advanced network architectures and self-supervised pretraining strategies. Nevertheless, existing approaches still exhibit two critical drawbacks. Firstly, these methods often rely on a single dataset for training, limiting the model's generalizability due to the restricted scale of the training data. Secondly, the one-step generation schema is widely followed, which necessitates a customized forecasting head and overlooks the temporal dependencies in the output series, and also leads to increased training costs under different horizon length settings. To address these issues, we propose a novel generative pretrained hierarchical transformer architecture for forecasting, named GPHT. There are two aspects of key designs in GPHT. On the one hand, we advocate for constructing a mixed dataset for pretraining our model, comprising various datasets from diverse data scenarios. This approach significantly expands the scale of training data, allowing our model to uncover commonalities in time series data and facilitating improved transfer to specific datasets. On the other hand, GPHT employs an auto-regressive forecasting approach under the channel-independent assumption, effectively modeling temporal dependencies in the output series. Importantly, no customized forecasting head is required, enabling a single model to forecast at arbitrary horizon settings. We conduct sufficient experiments on eight datasets with mainstream self-supervised pretraining models and supervised models. The results demonstrated that GPHT surpasses the baseline models across various fine-tuning and zero/few-shot learning settings in the traditional long-term forecasting task, providing support for verifying the feasibility of pretrained time series large models.

How Well Does GPT-4V(ision) Adapt to Distribution Shifts? A Preliminary Investigation

In machine learning, generalization against distribution shifts -- where deployment conditions diverge from the training scenarios -- is crucial, particularly in fields like climate modeling, biomedicine, and autonomous driving. The emergence of foundation models, distinguished by their extensive pretraining and task versatility, has led to an increased interest in their adaptability to distribution shifts. GPT-4V(ision) acts as the most advanced publicly accessible multimodal foundation model, with extensive applications across various domains, including anomaly detection, video understanding, image generation, and medical diagnosis. However, its robustness against data distributions remains largely underexplored. Addressing this gap, this study rigorously evaluates GPT-4V's adaptability and generalization capabilities in dynamic environments, benchmarking against prominent models like CLIP and LLaVA. We delve into GPT-4V's zero-shot generalization across 13 diverse datasets spanning natural, medical, and molecular domains. We further investigate its adaptability to controlled data perturbations and examine the efficacy of in-context learning as a tool to enhance its adaptation. Our findings delineate GPT-4V's capability boundaries in distribution shifts, shedding light on its strengths and limitations across various scenarios. Importantly, this investigation contributes to our understanding of how AI foundation models generalize to distribution shifts, offering pivotal insights into their adaptability and robustness. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/jameszhou-gl/gpt-4v-distribution-shift.

Can Generalist Foundation Models Outcompete Special-Purpose Tuning? Case Study in Medicine

Generalist foundation models such as GPT-4 have displayed surprising capabilities in a wide variety of domains and tasks. Yet, there is a prevalent assumption that they cannot match specialist capabilities of fine-tuned models. For example, most explorations to date on medical competency benchmarks have leveraged domain-specific training, as exemplified by efforts on BioGPT and Med-PaLM. We build on a prior study of GPT-4's capabilities on medical challenge benchmarks in the absence of special training. Rather than using simple prompting to highlight the model's out-of-the-box capabilities, we perform a systematic exploration of prompt engineering. We find that prompting innovation can unlock deeper specialist capabilities and show that GPT-4 easily tops prior leading results for medical benchmarks. The prompting methods we explore are general purpose, and make no specific use of domain expertise, removing the need for expert-curated content. Our experimental design carefully controls for overfitting during the prompt engineering process. We introduce Medprompt, based on a composition of several prompting strategies. With Medprompt, GPT-4 achieves state-of-the-art results on all nine of the benchmark datasets in the MultiMedQA suite. The method outperforms leading specialist models such as Med-PaLM 2 by a significant margin with an order of magnitude fewer calls to the model. Steering GPT-4 with Medprompt achieves a 27% reduction in error rate on the MedQA dataset over the best methods to date achieved with specialist models and surpasses a score of 90% for the first time. Beyond medical problems, we show the power of Medprompt to generalize to other domains and provide evidence for the broad applicability of the approach via studies of the strategy on exams in electrical engineering, machine learning, philosophy, accounting, law, nursing, and clinical psychology.

AGIEval: A Human-Centric Benchmark for Evaluating Foundation Models

Evaluating the general abilities of foundation models to tackle human-level tasks is a vital aspect of their development and application in the pursuit of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Traditional benchmarks, which rely on artificial datasets, may not accurately represent human-level capabilities. In this paper, we introduce AGIEval, a novel benchmark specifically designed to assess foundation model in the context of human-centric standardized exams, such as college entrance exams, law school admission tests, math competitions, and lawyer qualification tests. We evaluate several state-of-the-art foundation models, including GPT-4, ChatGPT, and Text-Davinci-003, using this benchmark. Impressively, GPT-4 surpasses average human performance on SAT, LSAT, and math competitions, attaining a 95% accuracy rate on the SAT Math test and a 92.5% accuracy on the English test of the Chinese national college entrance exam. This demonstrates the extraordinary performance of contemporary foundation models. In contrast, we also find that GPT-4 is less proficient in tasks that require complex reasoning or specific domain knowledge. Our comprehensive analyses of model capabilities (understanding, knowledge, reasoning, and calculation) reveal these models' strengths and limitations, providing valuable insights into future directions for enhancing their general capabilities. By concentrating on tasks pertinent to human cognition and decision-making, our benchmark delivers a more meaningful and robust evaluation of foundation models' performance in real-world scenarios. The data, code, and all model outputs are released in https://github.com/microsoft/AGIEval.

Large Language Model Prediction Capabilities: Evidence from a Real-World Forecasting Tournament

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

JiuZhang3.0: Efficiently Improving Mathematical Reasoning by Training Small Data Synthesis Models

Mathematical reasoning is an important capability of large language models~(LLMs) for real-world applications. To enhance this capability, existing work either collects large-scale math-related texts for pre-training, or relies on stronger LLMs (\eg GPT-4) to synthesize massive math problems. Both types of work generally lead to large costs in training or synthesis. To reduce the cost, based on open-source available texts, we propose an efficient way that trains a small LLM for math problem synthesis, to efficiently generate sufficient high-quality pre-training data. To achieve it, we create a dataset using GPT-4 to distill its data synthesis capability into the small LLM. Concretely, we craft a set of prompts based on human education stages to guide GPT-4, to synthesize problems covering diverse math knowledge and difficulty levels. Besides, we adopt the gradient-based influence estimation method to select the most valuable math-related texts. The both are fed into GPT-4 for creating the knowledge distillation dataset to train the small LLM. We leverage it to synthesize 6 million math problems for pre-training our JiuZhang3.0 model, which only needs to invoke GPT-4 API 9.3k times and pre-train on 4.6B data. Experimental results have shown that JiuZhang3.0 achieves state-of-the-art performance on several mathematical reasoning datasets, under both natural language reasoning and tool manipulation settings. Our code and data will be publicly released in https://github.com/RUCAIBox/JiuZhang3.0.